spinning’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

spinning posted to the Apple User's Group board. 12:05 PM

Gmail security

I'm looking for advice on how to handle security with Google services. Several months ago I started seeing spam appearing to come from my Gmail account sent to people in my Gmail contacts. I immediately changed my password. I also looked at recent [more]

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 11:48 AM

Re: Margin of error?

One thing she mentioned that bothers her about "sampling error rate" (I think that's how she said it but I could be wrong) is that it starts out VERY bad (early temperature measurements) and doesn't really get better until the 1990's. [more]

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Apple board. 11:35 AM

Re: Let's salute Cook's genius for once

I'm a downright snob about being left handed. We are statistically more likely to be famous, you know.

But you're all a little bit ... sinister.

Thu Jan 29

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Retirement Investing board. 11:38 AM

Re: Traditional 401k vs. Roth 401k

it's very possible that given the scenario I just mentioned, you may actually be pulling that money out at a higher tax rate than what you would have been subject to had you just saved after tax!

This argument, while true, misses [more]

Mon Jan 26

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 1:10 PM

Re: Margin of error?

There is a major difference between the term "margin of error" and "probability or accuracy."

There are many different sources of error in any observation or data. Different fields often have different names for [more]

Fri Jan 23

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 9:34 AM

Re: Margin of error?

There is of course a lot of analysis about the uncertainty of the data products. It doesn't always make it to the press releases and popular articles, which is, I think, a problem for many reasons. But the scientists doing the work, who often have no [more]

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 9:11 AM

Re: 2014 Warmest Year on Record

Climate appears to be a step function.

Mathematically, functions that are a combination of an oscillation and a trend appear to be a step-function. The simplest function like this is

f(t) = cos(t) + m t

where m is [more]

Thu Jan 22

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 11:55 AM

Re: 2014 Warmest Year on Record

But what didn't we know about 2010 temperatures that changed three months later?

This is all detailed by the Met Office Hadley Center Release Notes. The graphs show that the changes are pretty small. Clicking on the links for the land [more]

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 11:46 AM

Re: 2014 Warmest Year on Record

To simplify things I used annual HadCRUT4 data which start in 1850.


Thanks. That's interesting.

Tue Jan 20

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 2:55 PM

Re: NASA junk

David Appel has a screenshot of a chart from the NASA/NOAA press conference. It shows the following data:

Probability of Warmest Year

Year NOAA NASA
2014 48% 38%
2010 18% 23%
2005 13% 17%
2013 6%
1998 5% [more]

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 12:31 PM

Re: 2014 Warmest Year on Record

And what evidence do you have that this has changed?

You answer this in your own post:

Growth of CO2 emissions has been nearly exponential

Mon Jan 19

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 3:01 PM

Re: 2014 Warmest Year on Record

Because there has been no significant trend in the temperature for years now. Back in October I looked at four global temperature series; here were the times without a statistically significant trend.

Months Years
RSS 241
[more]

Fri Jan 9

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Retire Early CampFIRE board. 12:09 PM

Re: This employee needs to be terminated

I believe employees have the right not to take any job -- that solves any ethical or moral problem.

Now should business owners have to provide services that they do not wish to provide? Nope, not in my opinion -- if a gay couple
[more]

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Retire Early CampFIRE board. 11:35 AM

Re: This employee needs to be terminated

I'm curious what people think about the idea of employees refusing to perform certain parts of their job based on their ethics and morals. There have been many instances of this across the political spectrum. Here a Walmart employee refuses to print [more]

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 11:12 AM

Re: Millennials Mired In Fear?

There is a macro reason for fewer startups: national and international chains. In the middle-class neighborhood where I grew up, my parents and my pals' parents were mostly owners of the small businesses they started. Grocery stores, pharmacies, [more]

Wed Dec 31

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Boards Post

spinning replied to the Apple board. 1:57 PM

Re: Let's Keep This In Perspective

The next obvious step for technology is wearable computing. Desktop, laptop, and pocket computers are mature, and Apple has had home runs in each segment. I think no one knows what the successful wearable device will be, or how much technology needs [more]

Wed Dec 24

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 9:08 PM

Re: Forestry: A Different Tactic

Hence the idea that a promising form of carbon recapture already exists: forests.

There is some evidence that the Little Ice Age was anthropogenic. European discovery of the New World exposed Native Americans to new diseases and led [more]

Sat Dec 20

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 8:03 PM

Re: Airborne fraction

Any estimates as to how much has gone into the ocean?

Figure 6.1 of the IPCC AR5 shows their latest estimates of the carbon budget
[more]

Thu Dec 18

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Climate Change board. 2:04 PM

Re: Scientific Misconduct

I think it speaks to the fact that scientists are people. Some people / scientists will do stuff like this, others won't. Becoming a scientist doesn't grant immunity to temptation or provide any other moral armor to resist doing this sort of [more]

Tue Dec 16

NL

Boards Post

spinning replied to the Retirement Investing board. 4:47 PM

Re: Market has risen but my Retirement totals ha

My overall though is that the bucket method doesn't actually accomplish what it is intended to accomplish, so the details don't matter.

I think you are right. After thinking about the standard strategy some more, the real issue is [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 2648
Recs Received 4166
People who have rec'd these posts 821
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 5.20
Threads Started 263
Threads Started Percentage 9.93 %
Most Frequent Board Climate Change
Very First Post risk and reward (12/9/1999)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 53.63 %
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