rrjjgg’s Activity

Sun Dec 14

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:36 AM

Re: Why?

<Perhaps this is one of those times to follow the advice "when the market is volatile and in a trading range "STOP TRADING".>


How about the adage, "Follow your screens" or better still, "Follow your [more]

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:59 AM

Re: $NAHL bearish

FC,

You mention a longer EMA in your commentary, but the chart graphs are regular SMA (listed as MA). That's why I use MACD's which are based on EMAs. Easier to set up.

I'll bet you're over 45. That's when many of us need
help [more]

Fri Dec 12

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:49 PM

Re: $NAHL bearish

That's why I want two signals to be bearish before I might act. The second signal I used
in backtesting was your $SPX weekly SMA 14 week from 16 weeks ago and with the $NAHL 9 day, the two together gave pretty good results. It usually is not [more]

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:36 PM

Re: OT: How Millionaires Invest

Vez,

What you say would be true, if they were in investment or related businesses.
They'd continue to do what they knew. Which is partly why Buffet keeps doing his thing.

I suspect 90% or more of those with bucks made it by [more]

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rrjjgg posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:16 PM

$NAHL bearish

Both the 13 and 9 day EMAs are below zero. The 9 day dropped below 0 a couple of days ago.

I decided not to act on this signal alone, but some like it, so see the MACDs here:

[more]

Thu Dec 11

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:56 PM

Re: ot: getting my 85% CASH into investments

Don't fret, be patient. You might think you want to be invested, but
you are invested! Cash sounds good now!! Since the US buck has been strong lately, you'll not make interest, but it will have increased purchasing power, provided it keeps [more]

Mon Dec 8

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:39 PM

Re: Question about Net-Net Grahamified

John,

<I think the versions of this step are the same, as I have
interpreted it.>

Probably not. It depends on how your software interprets
your algebraic expression. Yours has the form (a/b)-c-d. I put in the [more]

Thu Dec 4

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:56 PM

Re: IRA options question

DB2,

I have two small accounts, an IRA and an individual margin account at IB. I usually buy calls in the IRA and sell puts or open spreads in the margin account, but recently made a mistake and sold a put in the IRA. No problem. They just [more]

Wed Nov 26

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:47 PM

Re: Another disciple of Permanent Portfolio

<..., a few days ago referred to "productive farm" as an example, but that's completely illiquid and can only handle a very small amount of capital at one time, even if it did work.>


Maybe not as illiquid as you might [more]

Sun Nov 23

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:53 AM

Re: Is it easier to beat the market now, or befo

I tried a version or two of these measures using Jamie's
backtest.org This is restricted to VL stocks, but this really amounts to
just a reasonable beginning filter, if no timeliness is used.

The [more]

Sat Nov 22

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:05 PM

Re: Another disciple of Permanent Portfolio

Experiments using recent past. Use variant 0 in each.
Glenn's leveraged PP:

[more]

Wed Nov 5

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:56 PM

Re: Is there a different drummer?

Here's one from ETFscreen.com
[more]

Tue Nov 4

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Boards Post

rrjjgg posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:13 PM

Is there a different drummer?

While testing simple RS screens in GTR1 with small custom universes I've repeatedly noticed that when the universe is based on mutual funds, such as musslemant's recent
fidelity select screen, trp(1,200) [or tr(1,200)] usually gives results that [more]

Sat Nov 1

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Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:04 AM

Re: StevnFool Port Update - Oct 2014

I looked at your returns early this year and
they seemed to indicate you were going to go down this year. I didn't pay much attention until now. Nice turn around!

rrjjgg

Fri Oct 24

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:15 PM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

What have they done for us lately? From around Oct. 2003 to now, IEP
has risen 1086% to Buffet's 167%

Very different. The ride with Icahn has been a real
roller coaster, while BRK/a is pretty smooth.


[more]

Tue Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:40 PM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

Jim,

Your point about IRR is interesting.

But I think the reference is really to a CAGR. Look at the Perf chart
for IEP. It gives the stock performance so one can calculate the
CAGR from it.

rrjjgg

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:32 PM

Re: Timing Bernie with monthly signals

Phil,

Shall we try for a third signal date? :-)

Part of the problem is that we need the close the week before (Starting 12 Dec.). Use the inspection element to see that close:

[more]

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rrjjgg posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:40 PM

One is now 'rising'

I like Zee's $NAHL EMA(9) greater than 0 signal, since it triggers
a bit faster than Jim's EMA(13) test. Both have us in bear territory. Jim pointed out that, if you have a bear signal, but EMA(13) crosses above
EMA(42), then one can expect [more]

Mon Oct 20

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:28 AM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

Why work so hard? Just buy IEP, the public tracking stock he uses to
estimate his wealth.

Having owned it for awhile in the past, be prepared for a K1 form that might totally blow out your tax software package. He owns/owned movies, [more]

Thu Oct 16

NL

Boards Post

rrjjgg replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:52 AM

Re: ma260 better than ma200 for timing?

Earble,

I checked SPY at GTR1. With dividends of about
2.25%, the total B&H CAGR is still less than 5%, which doesn't beat your
method even with no dividends.

It would have been easier to just park our cash in a bond [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1606
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