physdude’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:12 PM

Re: Non-confirmations of BC II

To Mungo : I understand that your sell signal occurs when 5 of the last 8/9 trading days have negative NH-NL. However, I am not fully clear when its expiration occurs and would very much appreciate any enlightenment of that aspect. Thanks in advance.

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:37 AM

Re: No bears for Berkshire

Perhaps you can short 1 B share in a new brokerage account and join the AM? It would definitely be entertaining if you could get past their due diligence. :)

Wed Apr 16

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:33 PM

IBM earnings out

The press release can be found at http://seekingalpha.com/pr/9602263-ibm-reports-2014-first-qu.... The initial market reaction is poor with shares down about 4% [more]

Thu Apr 10

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:38 PM

Re: Half have less than $12,000...

I wonder how many hold their position in calls rather than shares. I have a nominal 100 shares left after converting my last few shares to calls earlier this year. I think mungo also has most of his position in calls.

Tue Apr 8

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc board. 12:15 AM

Re: Buyout

Thanks. I will take a look at it. Incidentally, the Chinese stock market look like a good contrarian buy to me at this point. It is risky but cheap enough that the upside will be tremendous if the gloom and doom does not come to pass. I have very [more]

Mon Apr 7

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc board. 3:46 PM

Re: Buyout

I think the short sellers are now attacking MNK to bring down the effective takeover price. I am still holding out for 84 but might settle for a bit lower in the next few days if they push MNK down enough. I am planning to retain part of my position [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc board. 1:21 PM

Re: Buyout

Yes, it was quite good indeed! I will miss the Christmas nearly every option expiration day that resulted from the insane option premiums which even smoothed over my terrible market timing. :)

Unfortunately, I was working during the [more]

Wed Mar 19

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 7:10 AM

Re: How much of a house for $1 million

Over here in Hong Kong, you would be lucky to get 500 sq. ft. in some of the more central areas for US$1 million. My 800 sq. ft. rented apartment is valued around that and is out in the boondocks (New Territories). In general, US$1 million would only [more]

Mon Mar 3

Article Comment

physdude commented on an article. 3:49 PM

Why Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Shares Briefly Popped

The fact that the FDA is still reviewing it after 2.5 months shows the complete lack of importance that it imputes to the report. If there was any substance to the allegations (other than the fact that they found deamidated ACTH in

[more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc board. 2:33 PM

Re: $70 broken...

Apparently the chemical formula for deamidated ACTH was in the PI all the time (Asp in position 25 instead of Asn)! The Citron lab therefore just found what was supposed to be there - i.e. like finding H20 in a bottle labeled water. A very nice own [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:04 AM

I wonder if there were any buybacks at Jan end?

The low of 108 in Jan was very close to the 1.2x book buyback threshold. There could have been buybacks if an estimate of BV was used. I sure hope that was the case!

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Questcor Pharmaceuticals Inc board. 10:34 AM

Re: $70 broken...

Nice 8-k from QCOR! The craziness of this latest attack should have been obvious given that Citron's lab report was supposed to have been submitted to the FDA in Dec. I wonder why they included that nugget of gold in there since it would have taken a [more]

Sun Mar 2

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:04 AM

Re: QCOR

Another study for diabetic nephropathy (from http://www.nephcure.org/faq-acthar): "In 2011, results from a case series of 21 patients with nephrotic syndrome were published in the journal Drug [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:29 AM

Re: QCOR

If I am right, and ACTH is useless, then the whole company is based on a lie.

At least one study referenced in the sNDA for Questcor showed that Acthar gel is highly significantly superior to corticosteroids for infantile spasms [more]

Sat Mar 1

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 7:48 PM

Re: QCOR

"Interesting. Do you happen to know what Left actually did to deserve this ruling?"

AFAIK, he was involved in a standard boiler room type operation.

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 7:42 PM

Re: QCOR

I think DDD is overvalued too FWIW but the bounce back has been pretty good. How about GOOG? That seems to have been an ideal short candidate of Tilson too though it might take a few more years to really see how it works out. NQ is also rapidly [more]

Fri Feb 28

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 5:07 PM

Re: QCOR

Whitney Tilson seems like a nice guy and I like his Berkshire analysis a lot but his short calls don't seem to be very good (GOOG???, NFLX, DDD, WRLD, NQ (nice bounce backs so far)). I can't seem to find any he got right. Can you point me to them?

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 5:03 PM

Re: QCOR

"That doesn't change the fact that a fairly heavy majority of their short calls have been pretty accurate."

I humbly disagree. They are right a few times but are very often wrong. For QCOR, there is hardly any need to go beyond [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:39 PM

Re: QCOR

I again apologize for the multiple posts but I think it is also important to note that Andrew Left (i.e. Citron) has been previously convicted of fraud. The decision (available at [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:27 PM

Re: QCOR

Too bad that there is no edit feature but it would also be interesting to note that no FDA advisory has been released in the >2.5 months (early December to end February) since the report was sent to them. Given the fact that Acthar is the gold [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 74859
Score 0.00
Score Change Today +4.33
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 6
Total Picks 7
Best Pick QCOR (+193.18)
Worst Pick EWH (-20.65)
Average Score per Pick 19.86
Charms Earned 1
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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 141
Recs Received 168
People who have rec'd these posts 102
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 11
Threads Started Percentage 7.80 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Buffett's results explained finally by academia? (1/25/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 57.45 %
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