physdude’s Activity

Fri Jan 23

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:04 AM

Re: $NAHL

Surprisingly, NH-NL was still negative yesterday despite the big positive market move. I wonder how common a negative NH-NL is when there is a 1.5% move up in the index.

Mon Jan 19

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:19 AM

Re: OCN/ASPS

The CA regulator issue was a surprise to me and was not disclosed by the management earlier AFAIK (in fact, I even took an additional bite just before the issue came out). Hence, my confidence in the management is no longer as high as before and I [more]

Mon Jan 5

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:43 AM

Re: Chinese stocks

The 2823 call strategy has paid off huge this year to anyone who adopted it. I made some decent profits too but sold most of it quite early as my target prices were too low and I certainly didn't anticipate a very quick 50-60% run up in the index. [more]

Fri Jan 2

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 9:38 AM

Re: LINE cuts distribution to 0.125/unit

LINE was down 7-8% pre-market and is now actually up 4% in the opening 5 minutes of trade. The volatility surrounding this name is getting really crazy. So much for efficient markets :).

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Value Hounds board. 7:21 AM

LINE cuts distribution to 0.125/unit

LINE announced a significant distribution cut to 0.125/unit together with a large reduction in their capex. While the market will take it negatively, I think this is good news for the long run as it gives breathing room for management to improve [more]

Wed Dec 31

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 4:20 PM

Re: the Who Knew Year

Having just finished the new year celebrations and having some insomnia, I second your points and raise another glass to 2015.

I was having a brilliant year shaping up to be like the last until Q4 when energy and another individual stock [more]

Sun Dec 28

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Falling Knives board. 9:32 AM

OCN/ASPS

Both these stocks have fallen considerably since the NY DFS imposed a very onerous settlement on Ocwen. Unfortunately, I allocated about 6% of my portfolio to both these stocks at prices nearly double the current one on the expectation of a [more]

Fri Dec 26

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 10:42 AM

Re: LINE/LNCO

Sold a few of those puts for 0.45 today. A 16% annualized return after commission is quite nice for a relatively low risk. It would be great if I could several such uncorrelated bets.

Thu Dec 25

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:36 AM

Re: LINE/LNCO

I just noticed that Jan 16 3 strike puts are apparently trading at 0.40. It would seem unlikely that LINE will be below 2.6 by that time unless bankruptcy were close - I don't think a distribution suspension alone will take it that low. Bankruptcy [more]

Tue Dec 23

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 1:59 PM

Re: RIG dump

Thank you very much for the detailed and informative answer.

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:39 AM

Re: RIG dump

I would like your opinion on the information about the day rates on the new contracts and how that might affect SDRL's prospects for their new rigs. It seems to be good that at least some new contracts are being signed and the day rates, while lower, [more]

Tue Dec 16

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 9:24 AM

Re: FKA: LUK

Jefferies goes into loss in a big way - it is difficult to see any way to put lipstick on these results. Also, Leucadia seems to have had rather unfortunate timing on their oil investments this time around. I am beginning to think that 0.8 x book is [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 9:13 AM

Jefferies posts significant loss

The results definitely don't look good -- 0.8x book isn't looking as cheap as it used to. (Way too deep into LUK than I would like to admit.)

[more]

Fri Nov 28

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:39 AM

Re: No sellers?

Since I converted my last few shares to DITM calls (which were already my single largest position) when the price dipped to 108, I sold off 40% of an admittedly overweight position all the way from 128-142 hoping for a decline to 1.3 or even 1.2 [more]

Wed Nov 26

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:14 AM

Re: SDRL Q3 2014: First take ... Aaaarrgh!!

Doing a buyback after the stock has plunged 50% (60% from my first buy at 36) is definitely much better than doing it before the plunge. My take on the 10% buyback is that it is essentially the same as a 10% dividend yield but with greater [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:52 AM

Re: SDRL Q3 2014: First take ... Aaaarrgh!!

I think this is great capital allocation by the company as buybacks at this price will carry much more oomph. Unfortunately, I have been catching this falling knife but this could be a great turnaround if the buybacks actually go through and the rig [more]

Tue Nov 11

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Ebix Inc. board. 3:55 PM

Interesting development

Barrington Capital takes a significant stake and wants better board oversight [more]

Sat Nov 8

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:25 AM

Re: Q3 Results Out

I wonder if we will soon have a better buying opportunity compared to the recent past given that most papers are reporting an earnings decline or even a miss. However, as the Morningstar report points out, float has increased to $83 billion and [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:03 AM

Re: Q3 Results Out

It looks like most of the change was due to foreign currency translation (i.e. a stronger dollar). It looks that might cause a headwind to end of year book too.

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:17 AM

Re: Q3 Results Out

My first impression was that the book growth was a bit on the lower side especially since operating earnings were fine. Any quick summary for the discrepancy?

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 75100
Score 0.00
Score Change Today -1.73
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 5
Total Picks 8
Best Pick QCOR.DL (+193.18)
Worst Pick BP (-34.56)
Average Score per Pick 25.06
Charms Earned 1
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to physdude’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 216
Recs Received 316
People who have rec'd these posts 168
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 28
Threads Started Percentage 12.96 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Buffett's results explained finally by academia? (1/25/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 57.87 %
Show physdude’s 10 Latest Posts