physdude’s Activity

Fri Dec 11

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 5:38 AM

Re: OT: Interesting propaganda on oil storage

Just to make this clearer - BNN responded to me directly by email as well as updated the news story with that 551 million barrel figure which contradicted the information in my email they were replying to (as well as what the EIA says too, of [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:12 AM

Re: OT: Interesting propaganda on oil storage

I just posted the same message on three different boards since I thought people in all these venues might be interested. Perhaps in the future I should post once and link to that message on other boards. I have seen it done both ways here. [more]

Thu Dec 10

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 1:59 PM

Re: OT: Interesting propaganda about oil storage

Interestingly enough, I did send them an email and didn't expect to hear back but I did. They did state that they will issue a clarification that the capacity as of Sept 2015 is actually 551 million barrels. Since the correct figure should be 178.8 + [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:37 PM

Re: OT: Interesting propaganda about oil storage

Interestingly enough, I did send them an email and didn't expect to hear back but I did. They did state that they will issue a clarification that the capacity as of Sept 2015 is actually 551 million barrels. Since the correct figure should be 178.8 + [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Falling Knives board. 10:22 AM

OT: Interesting propaganda on oil storage

This news story came recently to my attention : http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/9/Oil-could-fall-below-US20-p.... It is highly misleading since [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Value Hounds board. 2:45 AM

OT: Interesting propaganda about oil storage

This news story came recently to my attention : http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/9/Oil-could-fall-below-US20-p.... It is highly misleading since [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:36 AM

OT: Interesting propaganda about oil storage

This news story came recently to my attention : http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/9/Oil-could-fall-below-US20-p.... It is highly misleading since [more]

Fri Nov 27

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 8:21 PM

Re: New Management

I think that the share price can recoil quickly if they can go through a couple of quarters of no significant negatives in earnings or other bad news. However, it does seem like quite a while since anything has gone well for Leucadia. It indeed would [more]

Thu Nov 26

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:20 AM

Re: Poll: (When) will AMZN become a falling knif

The long term debt is about double that once you include the capital leases. This is probably why their bond rating is not all that high (Baa1 compared to Aa3 for IBM for eg.). Given Amazon's share price over the years, 50 million shares is not all [more]

Wed Nov 25

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 9:08 PM

Re: FKA: CHK, still, again, forever!

I think the market fear might be that they trigger a covenant causing immediate default and bankruptcy in which case all the bonds get treated the same irrespective of maturity. Given that way, way weaker companies like SD, HK, EXXI, GDP etc. have [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 5:23 AM

Re: FKA: CHK, still, again, forever!

I found an interesting and prescient article which discusses Chesapeake's bond covenants (wish I had read it before - it looks like CDS on energy companies were seriously mispriced earlier in the year). At these prices, it looks like they are likely [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:18 AM

Re: Poll: (When) will AMZN become a falling knif

It is extremely dangerous to short a stock when stock can be issued at elevated prices. This could conceivably increase the value of the firm well beyond the starting value even if it has no intrinsic value whatsoever. You also have the danger that [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude posted to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 1:51 AM

And the bad news doesn't stop

Leucadia debt collector found guilty of massive fraud:
[more]

Mon Nov 23

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 7:51 PM

Re: Can Sandridge survive?

Yes, I can see them not wanting to raise the price in 2016 and maybe even 2017 but by the end of 2017 even their fiscal situation will not be great and I am sure that the carnage in the oil industry would be quite something to behold by then. Hence, [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 7:27 PM

Re: NM: My Big Fat Greek splat

I don't know that much about shipping but here are some observations that struck me:

The financials seem to indicate that cash flow was actually decent for Q3 but the BDI only really deteriorated after the end of Q3. NSALI also seems to be [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 1:21 PM

Re: NM: My Big Fat Greek splat

So the common is suspended but the preferred continues to pay. The repurchase authorization is good but it is not clear how much will actually be used given the dry bulk environment. I just now looked at how the market reacted this morning and it is [more]

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 12:23 AM

Re: Can Sandridge survive?

I was looking at the 6.375s of 09/15/22 and 6.75s of 11/01/2020 (LINE3828623 and LINE3686437 - the symbol made me think that they are Linn bonds).

I agree that the debt swap wasn't that great for the bond holders in terms of collateral but [more]

Sun Nov 22

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 9:11 PM

Re: Can Sandridge survive?

Correction: those were Berry bonds. Why are they trading so differently from Linn bonds? I thought the two had long since merged.

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Value Hounds board. 12:13 PM

Re: Can Sandridge survive?

LINE bonds seem to have bounced back quite nicely recently being up more than 40% from the bottom (no stake here). Congrats to the buyers!

Sat Nov 21

NL

Boards Post

physdude replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:16 PM

Re: FKA: CHK, still, again, forever!

Interesting discussion - I replied to investor133 before seeing his last post and I am a bit more skeptical about the cheapness of CHK after his and mungofitch's input. I might look to exit those puts on any bounce - on the positive side, I am down [more]

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Two stars, 250 posts
Board Posts 322
Recs Received 507
People who have rec'd these posts 219
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Threads Started 42
Threads Started Percentage 13.04 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Buffett's results explained finally by academia? (1/25/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 60.87 %
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