paralwaysgood’s Activity

Fri May 1

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 6:51 PM

Re: Bayes Theorem

Loren, I realize it wasn't the intent, but the detailed analysis of "the likelihood that someone will believe in the divinity of Jesus" was really funny.

A well known popular statistician and prognosticator, Nate Silver, uses [more]

Tue Apr 28

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 8:51 PM

Re: Wealth, Energy, and Work

Hi warrl,

It's only a high-risk proposition if I make investment decisions based on my predictions. I won't. I am mostly invested in things I believe are essential to an economy. Without naming names, there appears to be a whole lot of high [more]

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 7:39 PM

Re: Wealth, Energy, and Work

I made a mistake.

Rather than a sinusoidal curve, it is more accurate to describe the Hubbert peak oil production curve as a perfect Bell curve.

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 7:01 PM

Re: Wealth, Energy, and Work

I don't have a whole lot to add. Mostly I wanted to check in, and say thanks to qazulight, LorenCobb, and the other folks who have contributed. I remain convinced that energy availability to sustain the luxurious standard of living (for many human [more]

Sun Apr 26

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 3:49 AM

Re: Wealth, Energy, and Work

Loren,

I think it's more accurate to write the equation the other way around:

Exergy = Wealth

Or even:

Exergy -> Wealth

Beyond that, I was only stating my opinion that our ability to harness the amount [more]

Thu Apr 23

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:27 AM

Re: Energy = Wealth

I'll never learn how to short the market, and I will always stay more or less fully invested, in companies that provide a tangible, useful product or service to society. I may be wrong, but that's how I'm going to play that. You have to consider how [more]

Wed Apr 22

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 10:29 PM

Re: Energy = Wealth

"But, we will harness more energy, we will create more wealth."

My problem with qazulight's opening post is the long term availability of fossil fuels. I went looking for some data that estimated the percentage of energy [more]

Wed Apr 1

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:27 PM

Re: How income inequality benefits everybody

With regards to Mr. Buffett's effective tax rate, remember that the recent tax changes, which raise the capital gains rate to 20%, plus an additional 3.8% surtax for funding national (ACA) medical programs, for income in excess of about $500k [more]

Mon Mar 30

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 9:33 AM

Re: Basketball

Hi JAFO,

I'm not "blaming" the players. Sorry if that seems the case. I'm blaming a system which encourages elite young players to attend the same schools (Duke, Kentucky are the main examples) to win a college championship, before [more]

Sun Mar 29

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 11:21 PM

Re: Basketball

Notre Dame earned my modest and temporary support for being a substantial underdog. Currently, Kentucky is the evil empire of basketball, featuring several future professional players who spend one (sometimes two) years in college before getting [more]

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 6:50 PM

Re: Basketball

Hi AngelMay,

I'm an old basketball player. I watched the last quarter of the Notre Dame (boo!) vs. Kentucky (boo!) as well. What was truly remarkable about this game was how well both teams played offense. You're right - for the last ten [more]

Tue Mar 10

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 2:33 AM

Re: Any golfers here?

"Golf: a waste of land and resources."

I have some reservations about the sport I started playing about 35 years ago (in college). Environmentally, not everything about golf is bad.

There are strong signs that golf is [more]

Sun Mar 8

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 7:46 PM

Re: Any golfers here?

And those people aren't golfers. And the video is not remotely funny, unless you enjoy people hurting themselves.

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Atheist Fools board. 1:39 AM

Re: Any golfers here?

Yes, I play golf regularly.

A par is always good.

Wed Mar 4

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the Peak Oil Party board. 12:18 PM

Re: We are now swimming in oil

This is another iteration of the peak oil argument we periodically have.

You're not alone, telegraph! You and I agree the evidence suggests that conventional oil production has peaked, and it appears implausible to suggest that [more]

Thu Feb 12

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood posted to the United Parcel Service board. 11:24 PM

Dividend Increase

From .67 to .73 per share per quarter, a 9% increase. That is a big increase.

I'm surprised nobody posted this. I get the sense everybody is bummed about the earnings warning and subsequent haircut in the share price. The stock just got [more]

Tue Feb 3

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood replied to the United Parcel Service board. 10:38 AM

Re: 9-13% Earnings Growth Guidance

Amend the last post. Delete "If I were you".

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Boards Post

paralwaysgood posted to the United Parcel Service board. 10:31 AM

9-13% Earnings Growth Guidance

This morning UPS reaffirmed its "long term" earnings growth expectation of 9-13% per year, though 2015 will see growth of "only" 6-12%.

This is not a reasonable expectation.

In 2006, a good year, net income was [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 842
Recs Received 1405
People who have rec'd these posts 431
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 90
Threads Started Percentage 10.69 %
Most Frequent Board United Parcel Service
Very First Post UPS And Inflation (6/14/2004)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 46.08 %
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