musselmant

Tom Musselman

musselmant’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:21 PM

Re: can-o-worms

BTW there are in fact people and the Southern Baptists had this view for quite a while that interracial marriage was a sin, so there are indeed people who have religious beliefs contrary to the laws on racial discrimination. They raised that argument [more]

Sun Jul 5

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:27 PM

Re: can-o-worms

In most states it remains legal to discriminate against gay men and lesbian women in ways other than state issued marriage licenses. You don't have to have a religious belief of any type. Outlawing such discrimination will require new laws. The [more]

Tue Jun 30

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:47 PM

Re: S&P Up or Down

"...Frazzini et al. observe that from June 30, 1998 to February 29, 2000, Berkshire Hathaway lost 44% of its value while the overall stock market gained 32%. Thus, over this ~1.5 year period, Warren Buffett underperformed the market by an [more]

Wed Jun 24

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:00 PM

Re: New timing strategy

Wells Fargo Advantage High Yield EKHBX goes to Oct. 1995 at yahoo

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:37 PM

New timing strategy

http://jayonthemarkets.com/2015/06/23/trading-stocks-using-b...

Go to cash when junk bonds (HYG) outperform S&P (SPY) comparing 2 month moving average; [more]

Thu Jun 18

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:20 AM

Re: small caps not owned by ETFs outperfom

These are the smallest 100 stocks in the Russell2000 per holdings in IJR and some recent price, and their mcap now per yahoo.

If you used a current list of those 100 with price>$1 and mcap>$100 mill ion half would be omitted as too [more]

Wed Jun 17

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:26 PM

Re: market very or barely overvalued?

"...my model still predicts a positive return in the stock market. The thing is that we don’t know where this CAPE ratio is going—it could double from here. That’s why I’m hesitant. And the alternative—if you do pull out of the stock market—what [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:53 PM

Re: small caps not owned by ETFs outperfom

here is one online list in case anyone wants to gather stocks owned:


name etf or mutual fund $ under management

SMALL CAP GROWTH:
IWO iSHARES RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ETF $7,239,000
VBK VANGUARD SMALL CAP GROWTH ETF [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:03 PM

small caps not owned by ETFs outperfom

e. A basket made up of the 10 per cent of US stocks with the lowest ETF ownership, the vast majority of which were small-cap stocks, handily outperformed the Russell 2000 and Russell MicroCap indexes over the past seven years as a whole, and also in [more]

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:31 AM

Re: market very or barely overvalued?

"on average, at a ten-year horizon, for any CAPE ratio below 35 the S&P has delivered average real asset returns pretty much outclassing all other major asset classes."

[more]

Tue Jun 16

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:23 PM

Re: market very or barely overvalued?

To quote Robert Redford at the end of "The Candidate", the issue isn't is CAPE high, but instead "what do we do now?"

There is no evidence a high CAPE tells you what to do. Unless you are willing to get out of the market [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:36 PM

Re: market very or barely overvalued?

I haven't seen any convincing evidence of buy and sell signals on CAPE, let alone exact. The best it seems is to say risks increase or decrease.
When crashes or bear markets occur remains unknown in advance. If CAPE holds up it may predict [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:39 AM

market very or barely overvalued?

JP Morgan figures end of March

Measure Description Latest 25-year avg.
P/E Price to Earnings 16.9 15.7
CAPE Shiller's 27.8 25.4
Dividend Yield 1.9% 2.1%
Real Earnings Yield 3.9% 2.9%
Price to Book 2.8 2.9
Price [more]

Thu May 28

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Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:47 PM

factor tester for mutual funds

http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/05/28/basic-factor-analy...

has an excel tool (at the end) that lets you [more]

Thu May 21

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:41 PM

Re: hedge fund returns

Per marketwatch in 2013 48.8% of U.S. households held stock directly or indirectly.

36% of U.S. equities were held directly by households, down from more than 93% in 1945. Fed data includes closely held companies and public-share holdings by [more]

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musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:52 AM

hedge fund returns

Barrons top 100 hedge funds
excludes commodities, sector funds
by 3 yr annualized return management name if a different name
57% Glenview Offshore Opp
43.5 Senvest Partners
41.6 Marlin Masters Cap
36.4 Camox Cologny
34.4 [more]

Tue May 19

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:39 PM

Re: another simple asset rotation

http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/05/19/tactical-asset-all...

has an excellent discussion of various weighting/allocation/risk [more]

Mon May 18

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:33 PM

stop losses work?

http://www.quant-investing.com/blogs/general/2015/02/16/trut...

presents 3 stop loss papers and concludes stop losses [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:31 PM

another simple asset rotation

inspired by
https://quantstrattrader.wordpress.com/2015/05/18/a-basic-lo...

CAGR 19% 19950118 forward
mdd [more]

Sat May 16

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1073
Recs Received 2437
People who have rec'd these posts 452
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 2.70
Threads Started 242
Threads Started Percentage 22.55 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post new ideas worthless w/o backtests (10/21/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 58.06 %
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