musselmant

Tom Musselman

musselmant’s Activity

Thu May 21

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:41 PM

Re: hedge fund returns

Per marketwatch in 2013 48.8% of U.S. households held stock directly or indirectly.

36% of U.S. equities were held directly by households, down from more than 93% in 1945. Fed data includes closely held companies and public-share holdings by [more]

NL

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musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:52 AM

hedge fund returns

Barrons top 100 hedge funds
excludes commodities, sector funds
by 3 yr annualized return management name if a different name
57% Glenview Offshore Opp
43.5 Senvest Partners
41.6 Marlin Masters Cap
36.4 Camox Cologny
34.4 [more]

Tue May 19

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:39 PM

Re: another simple asset rotation

http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/05/19/tactical-asset-all...

has an excellent discussion of various weighting/allocation/risk [more]

Mon May 18

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:33 PM

stop losses work?

http://www.quant-investing.com/blogs/general/2015/02/16/trut...

presents 3 stop loss papers and concludes stop losses [more]

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Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:31 PM

another simple asset rotation

inspired by
https://quantstrattrader.wordpress.com/2015/05/18/a-basic-lo...

CAGR 19% 19950118 forward
mdd [more]

Sat May 16

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:51 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

I suppose even if we have low or no inflation for 100 years nothing would convince the right wing, who are trapped into an infinite loop. The Fed has not been "printing money". You have been reading too many libertarian nonsense that [more]

NL

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:30 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

Yesterday Peter Schiff, who co-manages the EuroPac Gold Fund EPGFX, which is down 22.57% since its inception in July 2013, told marketwatch that gold will be $5,000 an ounce. And of course that the Fed has done a "terrible" monetary [more]

Fri May 15

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:01 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

During Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting this past weekend, Warren Buffett made it clear that he will “never make an acquisition based on macro factors.”
“We know we don’t know” : forecasting economic trends is nearly impossible and therefore [more]

Thu May 14

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:09 AM

Re: GTR1 question on pcntl function

"the ‘outperformance’ of high-dividend stocks was non-existent from 1990-2010...[but if you]

Sort stocks into those who are predicted to pay a dividend and those who will not pay a predicted dividend.

Dividends are considered [more]

Wed May 13

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:15 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

Rand Paul in 2011 on the coming hyper-inflation:

" If people are prepared to carry money to the grocery store in a wheel barrel, that may be coming… what I worry about is the Weimar Republic, I worry about 1923 in Germany, when they [more]

NL

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:50 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

If you haven't paid attention to the non-stop warnings of doom from the right-wing ever since the QE occurred you don't read their screeds; good for you, since since 2009 and each year thereafter they have predicted all the things I've stated and [more]

NL

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:13 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

How can anyone seriously think they are smart enough to not only predict what hundreds of thousands to hundreds of millions of people are going to do next year or 3 or 5 years from now, let alone the Fed, the President, the Congress, China's Central [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:29 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

Here are some of the predictions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlHBYQrCnIk fox news

Here is a sample from the WSJ (not an oped piece by a guest)
[more]

Fri May 8

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:28 PM

Re: Does the Unicorn smell a Bear?

I think it's like weather prediction: easier to guess next week than 3 years from now. I've seen no evidence whatsoever from anyone one here that they have the ability to predict when a crash is going to occur, nor how long a bull or bear market will [more]

NL

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:24 AM

Re: cheapest 20 in Barrons 500

I tested lowest 20 PE of (including pretty illiquid) liquid stocks:

19970902 forward monthly or annually:
cagr 5.3%

I narrowed liquidity requirements to p>$5 mktcap>100m
cagr 7.0%

I tried just taking lowest PE [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:09 AM

Re: Does the Unicorn smell a Bear?

Do you seriously believe that a spreadsheet can predict the collective future investment decisions of millions of human beings?

Tue May 5

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:30 PM

Re: make $1 billion yet get beat by S&P

Last year more than 40% of new hedge funds used computer models for the majority of their trades, according to data provider Preqin.

Hedge funds that use AI outperformed average industry returns every year for the past seven, except for [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:24 PM

Re: make $1 billion yet get beat by S&P

Of the top 10, 5 failed to beat the S&P.

The S&P made 13.7% in 2014.

Ackman's Pershing Square made 36% and 40% in his 2 funds

Citadel made 18%

Renaissance made 14.5% and 7.4% in his 2 funds (his secret [more]

NL

Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:14 PM

make $1 billion yet get beat by S&P

Institutional Investor reported the top hedge fund gurus who made the most money for themselves last year.

Of the top 25, 12 underperformed the S&P 500 by 3% or more.

Top 3 made $1 billion or more for themselves.

The [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1059
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Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 5.10
Threads Started 238
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Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post new ideas worthless w/o backtests (10/21/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 57.79 %
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