musselmant

Tom Musselman

musselmant’s Activity

Yesterday

Fri Feb 27

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Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:48 PM

perfect 20-20 investing hindsight IS possible

Financial Tmies
" ..Max-Herve George has a way to invest with 20-20 hindsight.

The 25-year-old French citizen living in Switzerland owns a life insurance contract through Aviva France that allows him to buy into investment funds at [more]

Thu Feb 26

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:36 AM

Re: Mebane Faber's new book

Let us know if he mentions buying Greece and Russia a year ago.

Tue Feb 24

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:36 AM

Re: Cliff Asness Interview on Bloomberg

Don't forget that 90% plus of the famous investors are long-term hold advocates.
If you play the short-term game factor analysis can (but doesn't have to) differ.
One day, five day, monthly, 2 month, 3, 6, 12 month: when you test various [more]

Sun Feb 22

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:14 PM

Re: hedge funds an utter disaster for years

in 2008 Buffett made a $1m bet with Protégé Partners:

“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is [more]

Thu Feb 19

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:21 PM

Re: Maybe the market is overvalued

How about leaving it to Alan Greenspan, who said:
”[A] government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. A fiat money system, like the ones we have today, can produce such claims without limit.”

[more]

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musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:07 PM

Re: Maybe the market is overvalued

"According to CBO, the deficit for all of 2014 — that is, for the fiscal year that just ended on September 30 — was $486 billion, a whopping $195 billion less (with rounding) than the $680 billion deficit recorded in 2103. That’s the lowest [more]

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musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:38 PM

hedge funds an utter disaster for years

"...the typical 2 and 20 hedge fund fee structure was the equivalent of a 6.4 percent management fee....
the cost of a three- to six-month lock-up is around 2 percent. A two-year lock-up would be worth 4 percent. ...

the [more]

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:13 PM

Re: Maybe the market is overvalued

Of course the stock market can crash anytime, even when cheap, or it can stagnate for decades.

But there is no "house of cards". That is a right-wing, libertarian economic idea based on political ideology rather than fact. The US [more]

Tue Feb 17

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:07 AM

Re: Maybe the market is overvalued

most recent post stiff kick in the head:
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/

Sun Feb 8

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:17 PM

Re: Using Limit Orders at FolioFN

as far as I know brokers all give you current prices while the market is open if you prepare and order, so you should be able to get it at folio by starting to (but not placing after preview) a market or limit order while the market is [more]

Sun Feb 1

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:33 PM

Re: New screen: HIFEY

[more]

Thu Jan 22

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musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:13 PM

800 year momentum backtest!

In Greyserman and Kaminski’s new book, Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha, they looked at 84 equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies markets as they became available from the years 1200 through 2013. They [more]

Tue Jan 6

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musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:04 PM

hedge fund returns 2014

listed by 2014 CAGR thru 10/31/14 for hedge funds with $1B invested (about 1/2 based outside the US), only for all that made >11% in 2014 per Bloomberg based on what public or confirmable info they have



# manager fund cagr [more]

Mon Jan 5

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Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:57 PM

AAII canned screens return 2014


Here by 2014 rank to 11/28 (AAII's reported date) are its canned versions of screens, with their 10 year CAGR and rank for all screens with a 10 year CAGR over 11%.

You can see that many of the best long-term screens had a poor [more]

Fri Jan 2

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:57 PM

Re: did anyone beat the S&P?

The Fidelity Select screen switching strategy outperformed the S&P in both theory and practice this past year.

Sadly I didn't have all my money in it, but the account that used it is happy.

Tue Dec 30

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Boards Post

musselmant posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:15 AM

CAPE and Faber fans buy Russia and Greece?

Interested in knowing if fans of country low PEs and Mebane Faber bought Russia and Greece this year (since they were and are cheapest markets), if they stuck with the, and if they are buying now.

Thu Dec 18

NL

Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:11 AM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

Please let me know if this correctly interprets "the best" of your timing in your referenced post; your grammar/spelling on a few words is throwing me.

Of 48 sectors
1. Sectors must be positive
2. If number of such sectors [more]

Wed Dec 17

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:40 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

A paper by Harvey, Liu and Zhu argue that t-ratios of 2.0 for newly found factors are insufficient to account for the extensive data mining inherent in financial research, which should have t-ratios ratios of 3.0:

" most claimed [more]

Tue Dec 16

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Boards Post

musselmant replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:40 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

You can test some asset rotation with Jamie to 1969 for some screens:
http://backtest.org/6913h2SWnqtbrs15p1c-1

Twice the return of the S&P since 1969 (if you can stand the [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1006
Recs Received 2259
People who have rec'd these posts 445
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 4.50
Threads Started 226
Threads Started Percentage 22.47 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post new ideas worthless w/o backtests (10/21/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 56.66 %
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