mungofitch’s Activity

Today

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2 hours ago

Re: Put call ratio

I am looking for historical equity put/call ratio data...

Pinnacle Data has this from Feb 1984.
The update service is a real cost, but a one time purchase of a history file is very cheap: $39.
Nice guy, nice [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2 hours ago

Re: $53.72

"Mr. Buffett declined to comment...

I wonder whether that's "wouldn't take our call", or said "no comment" when asked.
I would infer rather different things depending on the situation.

I [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2 hours ago

Re: Damodaran on CAPE

Notably, would you include the last 30 years, perhaps overvalued in
themselves, in your 'average' level, which goes back about 85 years?
After all, there are enough of them now, more than a third, to significantly influence the
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4 hours ago

Re: Damodaran on CAPE

So perhaps his conclusion should be that the stock market was definitely overvalued on the whole in the 1996-2006 decade. Hardly earth-shattering.

Looking at the longer term data, another view, simultaneously inexplicable yet very [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 2:26 PM

Re: BBU

Right now the BBU:BAM ratio is 0.607. i.e., one BBU share will buy you .607 of a BAM share.
As a very wild first guess, it seems possible one might get a 1/3 swing some day up over 0.80,
at which time you could sell the BBU and use the
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:07 PM

Re: Damodaran on CAPE

Yes, cash flows have outstripped earnings, but as he himself says, paying out more than what comes in can only go on for so long.

It's worse than that.
He has defined his own "cash flow" [sic] as dividends plus [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:55 PM

Re: Damodaran on CAPE

CAPE makes perfect sense and has immensely strong predictive power, if you know what it predicts...

PS
I guess if I'm going to make statements like that, I oughta be prepared to back 'em up. Glass houses and all [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:06 AM

Re: Damodaran on CAPE

CAPE makes perfect sense and has immensely strong predictive power, if you know what it predicts.
(hint: it's not a market timimg system)
Sure, it can lead people astray if they don't know how to use it.
To suggest that it is [more]

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:54 PM

Re: timliness in gtr?

There are no VL fields at all available any more in GTR1 (or at backtest.org), alas.

Various rough substitutes for timeliness have been suggested over the years, or you can build your own.
Obviously it [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:13 PM

Re: Indexing / ETF`s WEB.

I think the real money is usually in companies run for a profit by competent people on a slightly level playing field.
...
Not that it's relevant, but I'm curious as to whether you think TWX would qualify, or am I overly
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:02 PM

Re: Indexing / ETF`s WEB.

I use IG and I thought they were very broad, obviously not! Who do you use?

I use Interactive Brokers for most of my trades.
I also have an accounts at a couple of Swiss-based banks, and they have
generally been able to get [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 PM

Re: OT: CBI's CEO insiders sales

Google turned up this: [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:18 AM

Re: There's Still Hope

For if you think of iPhone as a "phone", you really have no idea whatsoever, I imagine, of why T & T have bough AAPL stock.
And if you think that Apple is exclusively about the iPhone, that gets you even further from the
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:42 AM

Re: Indexing / ETF`s WEB.

Why do you screen out telecoms?

Oh, just a whim.
A lot of telcos internationally are scary government run value traps.
They're losing fixed line business, they suffer from irrational regulated rates.
Used either as [more]

Tue Aug 23

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:43 PM

Re: There's Still Hope

Jumbo shrimp.
Military intelligence.
Affordable luxury.
Taped live.
Sport utility vehicle.
Financial journalism.

Jim

"That's one of [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:19 PM

Re: New Normal?

I would certainly be happy with a 7.7% real return return for the next 10 years. Wonder what the odds are?

Very good, I'd guess.
If we miss that, my hunch is that it wouldn't be by that much, maybe a [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:03 PM

Re: Indexing / ETF`s WEB.

Thanks much!

No problemo.
Looks like lots more interesting picks if you drop the market cap requirement to $100m from $500m, which makes sense.

Not quite random selection
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:42 PM

Re: Indexing / ETF`s WEB.

Would you mind posting the list of 46 companies in the FT screener result?

Sure.
Slightly different run so there are only 39 here.
I deleted some of the columns, like beta and analyst consensus. Keep away from the dark side [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:20 PM

Re: Indexing / ETF`s WEB.

In consideration of your thinking therefore:
With Russia being ranked 1 on value metrics, its best to avoid due "Wild West" type
characteristics but perhaps get exposure through an Eastern Euro Emerging market's
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:30 AM

New Normal?

Current ratio of price to most recently published book value per share: 1.398
(that's with the price per B share at $149.13, implying A price of $223695)
Average of that ratio since Aug 23 2005 (the last 11 years): also 1.398
Smells [more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool
Board Posts 18269
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Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 31.90
Threads Started 1595
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Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
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