mungofitch’s Activity

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mungofitch posted to the Falling Knives board. 1 hour ago

FKA: Tesco

The world's third largest retailer. For now.

TSCO.L at 204.35 pence, down 10.87% in London
Via ADRs, TSCDY $10.02 in New York

[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2 hours ago

Re: Hindenburg Omen

Just to be sure I understand, let's assume we are comparing no 99 day high in the
last 40 days, then if there is not a new 99 day high before mid-November, the trigger signals?


Yup, something like that. Around that time, switch [more]

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:50 PM

Re: Hindenburg Omen

FWIW I'm sticking with my theory that a fresh recent high overrides all my other signals.
Given that it was only zero or one days ago, it doesn't matter much what count of days you use.
That's definitely "fresh".

The most [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:52 PM

Re: quiz

Any analysis which starts with the premise that short term price volatility equals risk will lead you to the wrong conclusions.
Just sayin'. Risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital, taking into account both likelihood and [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:40 PM

Re: Poll: WMT - Online

The OP focused this thread on on line sales. That is a potential growth area for Walmart.

Potential revenue growth, for sure. But what's the potential profit growth?

If they can't make any money doing it, I'd rather they [more]

Sat Sep 20

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:49 PM

Re: Poll: WMT - Online

I agree, It is so big that changing course is not easy or quick.
The stock action tells me that if you believe WMT has a future now is the time to buy.


I'm with GHU on this one.
And still long Walmart.

Perfect? [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 6:18 PM

Re: SHLD,anyone.

I make a great return on SHLD for a long time writing repeated puts.
At one time you could get $20 premium for a $40 strike put when the price was well above that,
which provides quite a substantial return as well as a substantial margin of [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:18 PM

Re: Gold

FWIW the link works fine for me, it shows a Yahoo interactive chart spanning
2007-2014 (IIRC) with BRK price as the base and others in different colors, showing % increase.
...
Caused by Yahoo within US vs Yahoo accessed from outside
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:35 PM

Re: Poll: WMT - Online

WMT - 247 B (PE 26)
BABA - 231 B (PE NA)
AMZN - 147 B PE 516


Ummm...you sure about those first two P/E ratios?

Alibaba made $8.6 billion in the full year ended March
and $2bn net just in the quarter ended June, [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:59 AM

Re: OT: More evidence that market is not efficient

Another great example a while ago was Toyota Industries, which is the older mostly-parent company of Toyota Motors the car company.
The parent company has many profitable activities of its own, but not long
ago the parent company was valued [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:43 AM

Re: Rationalwalk post

That's rational. High growth, big multiple... Slow growth, low multiple.

I did a scatter plot of this to test the theory.
I graphed 2- and 3-year rate of change of real book/share growth average across the
dates in a quarter [more]

Fri Sep 19

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:02 PM

Re: Rationalwalk post

The one and only reason the P/B is so low is Buffett's age.

I don't think that's even 1% of the explanation.
I think it's very much simpler than that.

In, say, 1998 the real book value had been growing at 30%/year [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:03 PM

Re: Rationalwalk post

Another good point of that article is how amazing the step-change was in Berkshire's valuation multiples.
I particularly like the fact that they caught the point that the fair price/book is rising slowly over time, too.
(if the market values [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:59 PM

Re: Gold

What does it do that I don't think it does?

I get a one day chart.


I think it says that if I had bought GLD on 6/22/07 and held it until now,
I'd have about the same return as if I'd bought BRK that day.
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:29 PM

Re: OT: Asset class returns

An added bonus, is that unlike very liquid assets, these would not be
able to be readily accessed at the age of majority--something I worry
about when I think about starting an UTMA account for any of my kids.


Not to worry, [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:08 PM

Re: Gold

I don't think that link does what you think it does.
So, in that sense, it surprised me too.

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:53 PM

Re: Rationalwalk post

Nice snip
If we were to adjust BNSF’s carrying value on Berkshire’s balance sheet to reflect
the same level of appreciation as Union Pacific shares, Berkshire’s book
value would increase by over $50 billion, or in excess of $30,000
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:54 PM

Re: Tilson's Recent Update on BRK

I like the general valuation approach, and have switched to something similar (but of course overelaborate) as my primary approach.

But I always find this presentation weakens itself by being a bit aggressive.
Counting the expected [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:59 PM

Re: Wintergreen dumps Berkshire?

I'm sorry to say I watched it.

His only stated reason to ditch Berkshire Hathaway is because it is badly run in the sense of outrageous executive compensation.
i.e., they didn't vote against the Coke compensation [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:01 PM

Re: Current BV:

I'm guessing it must be up around $146K by now.

I estimated yesterday that Sep 30 will come in around $145k.
But I include nothing for the derivative value changes, and I use a
low estimate for cyclically adjusted [more]

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