mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:18 PM

Re: Backtest will be questionable from now on.

In the future the timers will use these days to justify whatever method they dream up.

About time, too.
Relying on getting 1987 right is soooo done to death.

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:13 PM

Re: Creating Your Own BRK Dividend Question

I have a "spectrum" (like Roy G Biv), if you will, as to preferences in investments.
At the end of the acceptable spectrum is the cigarette butt investment...


Makes sense.
My favourite butts at the moment are CHK and [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:05 PM

Re: PSX share repurchase

I guess it makes sense if they're buying back more shares this week.
Current price is 10.6 times approximate current run rate earnings, and below 10x for parts of three days last week.
Pretty good entry point if you like to coat [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:47 PM

Re: Poll: Market movement

Perhaps this is 20/20 hindsight but "it's not easy to understand" because it is not true. Even an idiot like me knew....
Even the Oct 2008 crisis ... was only a financial crisis.


I disagree.
But it's comforting to [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:20 PM

Re: Creating Your Own BRK Dividend Question

Dividends are earnings. An investor is simply being handed a portion of a company's earnings on a schedule whether they want them or not.
A lot of people are perfectly happy to accept a percentage of earnings in this manner, including Buffett.
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:16 AM

Re: Backtest will be questionable from now on.

Backtests that use these artifically low prices will be messed up.

I don't consider those to be artificially low prices at all.
They happened. Prices do that sometimes.

JNJ didn't really -- for the purposes of [more]

Mon Aug 31

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:39 PM

Re: WMT

And Walmart _is_ operating at a profit (a fairly healthy profit, if you ask me).
That's more than some of the other largest on-line retailers can say.


I was thinking the same thing.
Though I don't have the figures to back my [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:45 PM

Re: Poll: Market movement

I don't know, I don't remember Berkshire making fantastic deals early 2009.

Some were fantastic, some weren't. Some were beautifully timed, other weren't.
But they didn't sit on their hands.

They deployed about $46 [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:33 PM

Re: Creating Your Own BRK Dividend Question

Not sure if I phrased that correctly.
What I meant to ask is would it be appropriate for an investor who needs a steady stream
of annual income to simply base the withdrawal rate on 3-4% of the BV and ignore IV/market price?
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:43 AM

Re: Creating Your Own BRK Dividend Question

If you sell off 3% of your estimate of the value of your shares rather
than 3% of the current market value, you will get a very slightly higher
long run average return (you're selling a bit more when it's expensive and vice versa),
but
[more]

Sun Aug 30

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:06 PM

Re: PSX > XOM

PSX is not that junky. But still. Taking and selling off a huge position in XOM makes even less sense in light of this news.

One conceivable interpretation is that XOM is relatively highly exposed to petro pricing and PSX is [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:58 PM

Re: RSP Question

Here is one explanation:
http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/understanding-etf-flash-cra...


Thanks for posting that.
What a pleasantly [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:44 PM

Re: Unreliable human investors

This is the main reason I think quant investing works so danged well.
Not because the measurements are so great, but that it simply unplugs
the entire process of looking at the companies to decide what to buy.
No emotions, no stories, no [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:03 PM

Re: Creating Your Own BRK Dividend Question

1) When he says sell 3% of your holdings does he mean 3% of the value of
the shares or 3% of the actual shares. Does it matter which one?


It depends on whether you want a steady "dividend", and if so, how steady.
If [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:35 PM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

Seriously, how would you go about forming a MRF?
Like a Tupperware party?


I suspect that, as with most things financial, the marketing is vastly more important than the investment strategy.
You'd probably raise lots of money [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:24 PM

Re: Another Quant Discussion - VAR usefulness

It's definitely a "my head hurts" kind of article.

As you can imagine, people who take VaR too seriously are doing things I think silly.

But, to be fair, most people in popular press (and many bankers, no doubt) forget [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:07 PM

Re: a screen

can we add to our MI screens ?

I thought I'd check it out with GTR1.
It seems to pass a torpedo test nicely.
The screen as posted, top 7 monthly no friction 1997 to June 2015, reports CAGR 25.4%
The torpedo equivalent [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:31 AM

Re: Warren Buffett turns 85 today !!

I mentioned this fine event to a friend this morning.
She asked, "Gosh, hasn't he lost his marbles yet?"

I answered "Oh, sure, he's probably lost a few along the way, but probably still has more than anybody else, so [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:25 AM

Re: BRK and Phillips 66 (+10% holding)

was reported as reducing its stake in Phillips not that long ago

It looks like the operative words are "was reported".
The reporter saw that PSX was no longer listed as a holding and
jumped to the erroneous [more]

Sat Aug 29

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:22 PM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

You probably have the background to successfully start one of these.
OTOH, I can't imagine that it would actually get done without lots of lawyers being involved.


Ha!
I'd have to sit down with a cup of Java to think about how [more]

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