mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:44 AM

Re: [what is a] Continuously Rebalanced Short?

Are we increasing the short as it goes in your favor, or decreasing it?

When a short goes against you, your position gets bigger just because of the price movement.
So if you have a target position size as a percent of your [more]

Sat Feb 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:19 PM

Re: Watsa

Watsa - "Buy high sell low".

Naw, it was a short position.
"Sell low, buy high"

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:08 AM

Re: QTAA / Dual Momentum Strategies

Because a system should be judged only by its last two years, right?

Two years isn't much.
But...
Two years post publication are worth 10-20 in the training data set.
Hard post discovery relative-to-market results [more]

Fri Feb 17

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:49 AM

Re: Berkshire & KO

Opportunity cost apparently means nothing around here.

So true. Just think about all the obvious winners that could have been bought in 1998.
Sun, JDS Uniphase, AOL, Excite@Home...

Just teasing. A huge chunk of the [more]

Wed Feb 15

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:56 PM

Re: market timing getting more dangerous

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats.
You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a
[more]

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:37 PM

Re: constructing a blend - more/shallow vs less/deep

I prefer to let facts & data drive my opinion, than the other way around!

Makes sense, but it's hard to get good statistical evidence from a top 2 screen run.

You can do what's possible to eke out the most [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:12 PM

Re: market timing getting more dangerous

If the total number of days that contribute to the total gain as a percentage of all days is shrinking isn't it a statistical truth that it is harder to make sure your market timing system catches them?

No. You don't need to [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:11 AM

Re: market timing getting more dangerous

This is a variant on one of the most classic arguments against market. I thought it had died its death long ago, but I guess not!
It's most often resurrected by commissioned stock sales staff who want to keep you buying and churning all the [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:03 AM

Re: BRK Quadruples AAPL Stake...

Here's one person's guess at why Buffett has bought Apple:
"...[services]..."


Makes a lot of sense.
There is one distinction between the Apple services business and one like, say, Salseforce.
Maintaining [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:43 AM

Re: PIP Squeak

Also excellent news that GTR1 is reporting the total return in a generally realistic fashion.
Unfortunately I
skipped reinvesting the dividend Monday, but if I had I would have had buy prices of about $0.55 in the a.m. window and $0.90 in
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:31 AM

Re: OT: Lou Simpson and WFC

WFC can "likely" bring you 5-6% for the next coupla few years. And as you mention, your WFC proceeds are presently sitting in your cash pile.
Why not let those shares soak just for the unremarkable (yet positive) gain until your
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:01 AM

Re: BRK Quadruples AAPL Stake...

That's quite interesting.
57.4m shares are currently worth $7.75bn.
That's a Buffett sized position, not a T&T sized position.

Jim

Tue Feb 14

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 4:03 PM

Re: Poll: How strong is your conviction?

Would love to hear the assessment of Mungofitch, Manlobbi, and others, of the Barron's allegations
(January 30, 2017) of the potential material overstatement of their assets, including "The Toronto
firm carries key assets at
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 3:39 PM

Re: Seth Klarman comments

The executive summary goes something like this:
1 Most all of the debt is non-recourse and project specific.
2 Debt is mostly fixed rate and laddered.
3 As interest rates rise, rents should also.


Sounds good.
I would [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:24 PM

Re: OT: Lou Simpson and WFC

Oh, I just thought the upside in the next few years was no longer compelling at current prices, given some unknowns and headwinds.

PS,
For whatever it's worth, Value Line suggests one might expect a price range of $60-85 in [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:16 PM

Re: OT: Lou Simpson and WFC

May I ask why?

Oh, I just thought the upside in the next few years was no longer compelling at current prices, given some unknowns and headwinds.
For knowns, the banking business ain't what it used to be. Neither growth nor [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:08 PM

Re: WEB RAISING or LOWERING Buy Back Level

If book per share goes up due to a change in accounting rules, then the numerical buyback ratio threshold should rise from 1.2 to some bigger number.

I am trying to make sense of this - perhaps you really mean the opposite? If book goes
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:39 PM

Re: OT: Lou Simpson and WFC

Coincidentally, I got down to zero WFC yesterday, first time in many years.
So far it hasn't funded anything except my cash pile.

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:54 AM

Re: WEB RAISING or LOWERING Buy Back Level

if a big tax cut was announced, greatly lowering their liabilities on unrealized gains. Was wondering
if this happened, if WEB would LOWER the BRK share buyback to counter this accounting adjustment?


If book per share goes up due [more]

Mon Feb 13

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:09 PM

Re: OT: IBM talking head moment

Not a failure at all to have invested and tied up over $10B in it.

Oh, I'd call it a failure.
The first order case is that IBM is worth 30-40% less than most folks,
probably including Mr B, thought it was worth a few [more]

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Board Posts 18720
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Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
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