mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:10 PM

Re: FKA: Seagate (STX)

I love financial headlines. For entertainment purposes only, of course.
"Seagate Profit Soars on Revenue Growth" - Wall Street Journal
"Seagate (STX) Q2 Earnings, Revenues Fall Short of Estimates" - [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:45 PM

Re: Whatever happened to Superior 6 ?

I track it two ways.
(a) with the Russell 2000
(b) check each month end in the past to see whether Russell 2000 or S&P 500 equal weight did better at that month end.
Use whichever historically did best in the past in the current [more]

Fri Jan 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:19 AM

Re: IBM

Do you have any that didn't take place during one of the bigger stock market run-ups in history?

Such a list for the future would probably be handier than one for the past : )

Just did a quick scan of Value Line.
Stocks [more]

Wed Jan 21

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:52 PM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?

FWIW

IBM expects 2015 earnings to come in around $15.75-16.50 a share.
I don't think many informed observers think that this is particularly unlikely.
Their earnings per share might rise or fall in future in real terms, but there [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:16 PM

Re: Good blend

Again - what else would you want to know to evaluate this blend?


How many years since the blend was formulated?
How many years since each contributing screen was formulated?

Never underestimate the power of curve [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:48 PM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?


and revenue continues to plunge.


Just curious...why would you think that IBM's revenues would matter?
Within a given business unit, yes,
but within a large and rapidly changing collection of businesses, no.

Jim

Mon Jan 19

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:36 AM

Re: trailing stops

Personally I like the idea of a relative-to-market trailing stop.
i.e., don't sell when the price drops a bit, sell when the stock starts underperforming.

By coincidence this is what you get (to a greater or lesser degree) from any MI [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:43 AM

Re: OT: FF4

That paper indicates that high-beta stocks will produce higher returns

Epistemology to the front. What do you mean by "higher"?
Higher than a cap weighted index?
The lesson of that whole paper is that there is one [more]

Sat Jan 17

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:37 PM

Re: OT: LUK and the Swiss Franc

Jefferies Group is in talks to give FXCM a $200M lifeline, reports Bloomberg

One of the more interesting things from this deal is that it was ultimately
done by Leucadia (parent), not Jefferies (sub). It's really more of a Jef [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:28 PM

Re: Stop Loss?

But when a stock craters 8%+, it usually is not coming back.

Made me grin.
Must be some screens you use!

I'm a value screen guy.
If a stock isn't overvalued when you buy it, and the company's long
run business [more]

Wed Jan 14

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 PM

Re: Poll: Board Mungo

It seems easier to set up than you worry about. (It would be easier than a BRK death tontine, written in blood)

Well, this is the part I doubt.
I did set up a fund, and the paperwork did drive me nuts.

It's remarkably [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:50 PM

Re: Mungofitch,why don't you...

Put all your money in BRKA except for 10% which can be "play money"??

Hmmm, not a bad idea.
I've been doing well, but you know, sometimes it's a lot of work.

For "play money", I would think sports [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:29 AM

OT: oil and oil companies

Fun graph
This is the ratio of Exxon stock price to the price of a barrel of WTI oil.
[more]

Tue Jan 13

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:43 PM

Re: Poll: Board Mungo

Glide into his circle.

...I saw what you did there.
Oughta be ashamed : )

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:36 PM

Re: Poll: Board Mungo

Have you ever run a company?

Sure. Nothing big.
Mostly I was involved in a team that started companies, so I'd be in the top 4-7 guys. One went public around 1985.
But after than I had my own company with my main business [more]

Mon Jan 12

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Boards Post

mungofitch polled the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:28 PM

Poll: Board Mungo

It occurs to me I'd love to be on the board of Berkshire,
despite the observation that it would probably be at net cost and inconvenience to me.
I'll never make it, but everybody needs a goal, right?
I have no claim to the appropriate [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:34 AM

Re: backtest.org

More evidence on how hard it was to beat the S&P last year.

It was.

You might feel better if you choose a more "universe appropriate" benchmark.
An equal-weight portfolio of all VL stocks would have returned [more]

Fri Jan 9

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:01 PM

Re: Cap-weighted vs. equal-weighted (slight retu

If you started any kind of fund, I believe many of us would invest with you.

Thanks for the kind words.

I ran a fund for six years, wound down in 2012.
My gosh, what a horrible business to be in.
And that sentiment [more]

Thu Jan 8

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:16 PM

Re: Was Horton a value investor?

I am not sure what is worse real losses or opportunity losses.

That's an easy one.
Real losses are MUCH worse.
Foregone gains are emotionally annoying, but you don't have to spend
years clawing your way back up to where [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:00 PM

Re: Novice GTR1 questions

1. In order to “Save to URL”, is it not a Left-Click to bring up the URL?
...
Yes, left click will bring up the URL at the top of your browser; then
you can right click on it, copy and paste it. Whenever I work on a
screen, I
[more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool
Board Posts 16071
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People who have rec'd these posts 2269
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 23.40
Threads Started 1494
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Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 84.45 %
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