mungofitch’s Activity

Today

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 2 hours ago

Bottoms

The day's not over yet, but it looks like my short term bottom detector will almost certainly trigger.
That's usually a good predictor of a short term bounce, though it may only last 1-4 weeks.

Much to my surprise, even my rare [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Falling Knives board. 3 hours ago

FKA: LKQ

LKQ Corp, currently trading at $26.57.
These guys (mainly) buy junk cars and break them up for parts to sell to body shops, in the US and Europe.

Sure, I know we'll all have no-accident electric self driving cars by next Tuesday and [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3 hours ago

Re: OT, lightening

FYI, I just sold a coupla covered calls against Berkshire.
December $220 ...


FYI, I just bought back all the covered calls I wrote last month.
I realized 77% of the maximum possible profit in 38% of the maximum possible time, [more]

Fri Oct 19

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:46 AM

Re: OT: Alibaba

Why do you think the stock price has been volatile and falling for the last few years?
No moat? Concerns about growth prospects?
Their earnings have been exemplary. So what is the market seeing that I am not?


It's usually [more]

Thu Oct 18

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:03 PM

Re: OT: Alibaba

it looks like he's just decided posting in here isn't worth his time anymore.

Just nothing much to say relative to other things to do.

Gut feel, I think BABA will likely trade at much higher prices in future.
It [more]

Mon Oct 15

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:31 PM

Re: Ot climate change and future stock prices

And don't forget the impending ice age preached to us in the '70's.

Well, that's a valid worry, because depending on the strictness of your definition we are already IN an ice age : )
It started about 2.6m years [more]

Fri Oct 12

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:53 AM

Re: OT: Boing?

These figures are based on values at the close, yes?

Actually they are figures open to open.
So, a signal at close on a given Monday uses the price change from open on Tuesday to open the next Tuesday.
(assuming no holidays [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:43 AM

OT: Boing?

In case anybody cares, my short term bottom detector triggered at close yesterday (S&P 2728).
This says little about the long term, but usually suggests the next few weeks are pretty safe. On average, anyway.

This triggers about 2.5% [more]

Thu Oct 11

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:23 PM

Re: OT, question, not a comment

This swoon looks to be a possible attractive entry point. Except that the volatility jumped and the option price didn't fall enough.

What I do on those days is buy single stock futures during the panic day, then switch to deep [more]

Mon Oct 8

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:10 AM

Re: Ot Market tops and bottoms

FWIW my top detector signal triggered on Friday at S&P 2886.

It's not really a very good signal. There are typically several "false tops" before any given cyclical top.
There were three false alarms before the ultimate [more]

Tue Oct 2

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:58 AM

Re: Apple & Tesla

actually knows something from original sources and observation, not from reading carp from imbeciles in the media

I read the charges as described at the SEC web site.
If you think they're imbeciles, you're entitled to [more]

Mon Oct 1

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:32 PM

Re: Apple & Tesla

Shorting has no real useful purpose other than to create bad behavior ...
there is no benefit to derivatives of that nature and that they do more harm than good.


Jan, you're a great person, but you have Stockholm [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:22 AM

Re: OT: Micron (MU)

As this author points out, MU is not particularly cheap on a P/S basis, and sales are also at 10-year high.

P/S is, as a rule of thumb, a terrible metric for valuation.
Unless you're comparing two companies with extremely [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:06 AM

Re: Fidelity IRA K-1 Surprise

Been watching it a while and that behavior is pretty typical. Goes up enough to get into the top 6, then drops and drops back out by the next end of month.
...
I agree and posted similar comments in previous threads.


I agree [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:33 AM

Q3 book

Any thoughts about the size of the hit to insurance divisions from recent bad weather?
From a few articles, it sounds like things weren't too bad overall for the industry, so I kind of expect only moderately dented underwriting profits.
A [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:23 AM

Re: OT: Micron (MU)

However, from 2008-2016, the company averaged just $0.27 EPS. Last year they had $4.4 EPS. This year they're on track for a whopping $10.
The 10 year avg ROE for this company is 6%. This year will be around 50%-60% ROE. Does that seem
[more]

Sun Sep 30

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:36 PM

Re: Apple & Tesla

Nobody but a rockstar CEO like Musk would've even survived this (maybe Jamie Dimon, etc, etc). Its impressive and shows just how strong his brand and power is.

Or, as I phrased it, "he's rich and popular".
Merely [more]

Sat Sep 29

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:29 PM

Re: Apple & Tesla

Humans drive with no sense comparable to LIDAR...
...that is a horse race, not an impossibility.


Fair enough.
There is no human cognitive process that a computer can't do, given the right software and enough plain [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:58 AM

Re: Apple & Tesla

have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. ...

Having the hardware isn't the same as having the capability. A current Tesla S is not an [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:29 AM

Re: Apple & Tesla

- Musk will win.

I'll agree with that, but only in the sense that I expect he will settle with the SEC.
Pay a big fine, but probably squeak his way out of the ban from positions in public companies. He's rich and [more]

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