mungofitch’s Activity

Today

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 53 minutes ago

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Most expensive were
Precious Metals, Non-Metallic, and Industrial Metal Mining
...
I have to say I was pretty shocked to see mining on the expensive list with the biggest ETF (GDX) 60% of its 2011 peak.
Would be interested in any
[more]

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 10:26 PM

Re: CBI

USG. There, I've made a rainy day worse.
Truth is, I made some nice walking around money in its bounces around the bottom. But it IS seared in my memory.


Oh yeah.
My first price was WAY up there. A hair over $43 a share in [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:21 PM

Re: OT: calculating return on an options positio

How do I calculate an effective CAGR?

This is the way I do that.
Calculate how many days you had capital at risk, and how much capital.
If it's different amount for different time periods, calculate it separately for each [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:03 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Sorry Jim (and DTB) but I can't stop thinking about this. So being
short 3 individual stocks makes perfect sense to me. That seems bottoms
up and perfectly reasonable. And being short an index if you have proof
that it is grossly
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:41 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Also, what was the on trend earnings yield at the 2000 and 2007 peak?

On my figures, end-of-week extremes of trend earnings yields in recent years:
Low was 2.256% in March 2000 (most expensive)
High was 5.051% in October 2002 [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:16 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

My figure for current on trend earnings is 85.20. I took CAPE earnings and increased them by 8.1% to get the on trend number.
This puts the current on trend earnings yield at 4.28%.


Sounds plausible. I got $81.71 in today's money [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:03 PM

Re: OT: Well, that's a relief!

Is this really true? It seems to me GDP is a measure of output.
Profits on the other hand are a measure of output less costs.
If costs go down, say from real wages declining, profit growth can
outperform GDP growth for very long
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:40 PM

Re: OT: Well, that's a relief!

Of note is the period just before Black Monday Oct. 19, 1987. The timing system sold on the open on Oct. 16, 1987.

No overtuning there! : )
Show me where it was published before that date and I'll be more suitably [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:04 PM

Re: OT: calculating return on an options position

Divide the end profit/loss (after fees, option premiums, and interest if any) by the maximum
amount of money you could have lost (after taking into account any premium you collected or paid).
Ignore how much cash opening the position sucked [more]

Thu Aug 21

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:48 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Primarily it's intended as a one-time trade for profit.
...
Haha. You're bored with waiting and/or "regular" investing aren't you?


Well, "bored"? Maybe a bit.
I think of it as the result of looking [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 9:41 PM

Re: CBI

Berkshire added significantly to its CBI position in Q2 and now owns 10.7 million shares.

Interesting. I missed that.

Even if they bought after the plunge it's unlikely their average price during Q2 was better than about [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:02 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

I still look at the top 200 companies in the S&P 500 which makes up about 80% of the index and think that you would be crazy to short the lot,
no matter how convincing the macro explanation is. It's a hedge, I
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:40 PM

Re: OT: Well, that's a relief!

I'd really like to see what happened to trend followers during the great depression.
That episode probably destroyed almost any system we could think of,
except go to cash and keep it at home, not in the failing
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:31 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

In 2000 weren't large growth stocks with really high margins trading at very high PE levels?
Wouldn't that mean that their really high margins were over-weighted by inflated market caps?
...
And can't they just buy their competitors
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:39 PM

Re: Non falling, non rising: DLTR

BRK/A missed hitting $200k for the first time by 0.1% today, and I'm trying to distract myself.
For my portfolio the round number (profit to date on all BRK trades) comes when the price hits $205693.


Ahhh...made it.
(actually [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:45 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Real sales are an interesting metric, not one usually used in my experience,
but. I like charts that use real dollar data, the rest are meaningless.
Just give me cash flow and dividends. Couldn't care less about the
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:25 PM

Re: OT: Well, that's a relief!

"Ultimately, the price of equity is determined in the same way that the price of everything is determined--

Cute quotes.

You could probably add to your list that all price movements are 100% perfectly explained by [more]

Wed Aug 20

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:29 PM

Re: Come on, guys: 202k, 203k, ...

We are lucky to have you explain so many things to us.
Your analytical skills are out of my league and I want you to know how valuable you are to folks like me on this board.


Thanks for the kind words.

Those who can't do, [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:23 PM

Re: BRK-A $300,000 in 3 years

<There is "no question" that the government has manipulated the calculation of inflation by allowing product substitution and "hedonic adjustments."

That there be "no question" kind of implies that [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:49 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

hoc quoque transibit

Jim

"A gentleman need not know Latin, but should at least have forgotten it"

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