mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:13 PM

Re: Cramer and Interest Rates

He had no insight into what was going to happen to the general economy the next decade or 2.
But he knew the starting point, historically high bubble prices, assured substandard returns.


For whatever it's worth---
I keep an [more]

Fri Jul 3

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:12 PM

Re: Why I5, S6 days?

Birthdate payments might help the pension funds, but hurt those looking to having a good 6 days near months end?

I didn't delve too deeply, but the summary seemed to suggest that they see pension funds causing LOW prices at month [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:25 PM

Re: FKA : My entire portfolio

WDC ...
STX ...
MNDO ...
CCNI...
QCOM ...


Well, to the extent that you can pick stocks whose earnings won't go down,
and you don't sell at a loss during a fall in valuation multiples,
your return is pretty much [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:11 PM

Re: STX...Seagate again.

The real question for investors is whether storage companies can make
money in a commoditized market. The low cost producer can, the rest are
iffy. At least in theory, the price of a commodity is the cost of the
second lowest cost
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:10 PM

Re: S&P Up or Down

Working people are going to have to get used to very much higher savings rates.
Ahhhh, that's another one of those there prediction thingies. ;-)


Well, yes.
But it does seem to fall out of the math, like predicting that 1 inch [more]

Thu Jul 2

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:10 PM

Re: BRK/Heinz Kraft

Man bites dog.

Yeah. It's just not news when Berkshire makes billions of dollars in profit.
Which is OK by me.

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:56 PM

Re: OK, time to start getting back into BRK

I kind of agree with you.
I didn't get out of Markel, but I lightened up ever so slightly and nibbled at Berkshire today.

At the start of the year two Markel shares would get you nine Berkshire Bs.
Now you get just over 12 baby Berks [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:37 PM

Re: Buying today?

OK, you guys drive a hard bargain.
How about 44.80?
An uncallable loan for 0.2%/year interest rate...

J

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:21 PM

Buying today?

In case anybody is interested, the asking price on Jan 2016 $92.50 calls is quite good today.
Implied interest rate for the leverage is under 1.5%/yr.

That's because I'm selling some of them : )
(changing contracts, not selling out [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:13 AM

Re: S&P Up or Down

So, what advice would you have for my son? Hold his breath until the market valuations come around to where he wants them to be?
Maybe that will take 10 years. Maybe 20 years. Maybe not until he turns
65 and is ready to retire. Kinda too
[more]

Wed Jul 1

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:10 PM

Re: FKA: CHK

Cash and cash equivalents last Sept: $128m. Long term debt: $11.6bn.
Cash and cash equivalents Mar 31: $2.95bn. Long term debt: $10.6bn.
...
The underlying reason for this is gas price in my opinion.


Actually no, mainly [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:03 PM

Re: LUV

It seems since 2005 this 'strategy' is no longer market-beating.
So, maybe this has been arb'd away?


I'm not quite sure I follow.

1986-2004 Timeliness 1-5, Safety=1, RS26 bottom 10 monthly: CAGR 19
2005-2014 [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:02 PM

Re: STX...Seagate again.

When I first thought about it, memory was ferrite cores.

Oh yeah, I remember those.
We used 8k core boards, about 18" square. (admittedly they were considered pretty old school even then).
I always figured that with a [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:16 PM

Re: STX...Seagate again.

I don't know about you guys but I doubt I'll ever buy another spinning hard drive ever.

I'll wager you've bought one in the last year, but don't know it.
It's probably in a data centre at Apple or Google.
To Seagate, it [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:01 PM

Re: S&P Up or Down

Actual:
S&P500 (incl div) up 117% Sept'04 to Sept'14
Up 129% Sept'04 to Jun'15
Up 135% before this Greece thingie. ;-(

OOF!
Predictions are garbage. And a fool's game.


I bet with a bit of searching I could [more]

Tue Jun 30

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:55 PM

Re: S&P Up or Down

You mean like your 10yr prediction back in 04? ;-)

Fair enough!
It's hard to make a decent prediction when you get a near record breaking bubble at the end of the interval.

At the 5 year mark (ending average price 4-6 [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:54 PM

Re: S&P Up or Down

"...Frazzini et al. observe that from June 30, 1998 to February 29,
2000, Berkshire Hathaway lost 44% of its value while the overall stock
market gained 32%. Thus, over this ~1.5 year period, Warren Buffett
underperformed the
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:18 PM

Re: OT: stock price of Berkshire

a bit more than 11% above today's price for a period centred only 3.1 months from now.

Make that
"a bit more than 13.8% above today's price for a period centred only 3.0 months from now."

Happy end of quarter, [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Falling Knives board. 2:36 PM

STX...Seagate again.

STX not having a good stretch, especially the last week.

Not in the basement the way it once was, but down from its December high of almost $69 to today's price of $47.90.
Down 10% from where they seemed to have been happy just a week or [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:05 AM

Re: Another Assault on Cap-Weighting

Not a bad article!
I like this pithy bit
Most indexes are designed as a way to gauge the performance of a market or sector.
They were not designed as investment strategies. Yet, that’s how they are used.
As investment strategies,
[more]

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