mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 PM

Re: Q2 report

2Q earnings come out Aug. 7. I called HQ today and confirmed.

I admire the direct approach. Kudos.

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:54 PM

Re: Q2 report

I never quite figured out the exact formula for the date.
But here are some recent ones
2009-07-31
2010-07-30
2011-07-28
2012-07-26
2013-07-25
2014-08-01

So, this weekend wouldn't seem to be a bad [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:52 PM

Re: No more (free) cheese for you

This is not an unusual requirement. Want to guess how many Toyotas are parked in the GM lot?

Ooh! Ooh! Pick me, I know this one!
Zero.
For ages if it wasn't a GM car, you flat-out weren't in the GM lot, you had to park down [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:49 PM

Re: Long term underperformance

(1) "sales" as opposed to "revenue": what other sources of income do
you wish to exclude by focusing on sales instead of revenue, and why?


If I want something that is most meaningful to me, I would also [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:32 AM

Re: Finding businesses with extreme pricing power

Smaller companies can be nice too.
I have always been impressed by the economics of the WD-40 Company, WDFC.
No debt, so ROE=ROA probably around 27% this year.

It is one of the examples analysed in Mr Greenwald's Value Investing [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:23 AM

Re: Long term underperformance

but you need to look at it over a bull/bear cycle ...

For whatever it's worth, things ended up being toppy around mid 2007, and peaked in late 2007.
From about 8 years ago in mid 2007, Berkshire has outperformed SPY by [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:46 AM

Re: Long term underperformance

This is the longest period.
That's because it's not 7 years ending now, but just a hair over 13 years ending now. Or 17 years.

Assuming you could purchase SPY and get the theoretical total return
on the S&P 400, which involves [more]

Wed Jul 29

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:49 PM

Re: OT: what's it worth?

For those who have been looking at the thread, the firm is of course
Becton Dickinson, BDX, which I think was one of Mr Simpson's picks.
I put in a fake stock split (1:4 consolidation) for all the per-share
figures and the shares
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:46 PM

Re: Short Interest - Small/Micro-Caps

To me it's amazing that there is that much trading in IWM - it gets turned over every 7 days! (in addition to the short %).

That may be technically true, but as it's an ETF it's perhaps a bit misleading.
It's really a derivative [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:32 PM

Re: Old Transcript

"What pricing power does IBM have?"...Just look at the company"s pre tax profit margins...

Actually I don't believe that's a very good metric.
It's good for comparing two firms in similar line of business, but not [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:28 AM

Re: Short Interest - Small/Micro-Caps

The stand-out number in there seems to be "Short as a % of Shares Outstanding 48.19%". . Wow.

Granted, an ETF has many advantages for those who want to hedge. But still.

My suspicion is that a lot of observers have [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:06 AM

Re: Old Transcript

What pricing power does IBM have?

It would be an interesting exercise to see if you could open a new bank, even theoretically, without giving substantial money to IBM.
And it would be on products for which IBM gets very good [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:03 AM

Re: Old Transcript

Fun read.

Do you happen to know whether this is the meeting to which he was "invited" but declined,
twice if I remember correctly, and then to which he was ultimately summoned forcibly?

It's the first time I've [more]

Tue Jul 28

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:22 AM

Re: The best ideas are the ones you steal?

Wouldn't this apply to everything, not just this letter.

I think there would be some specific risk, too.
There really does seem to be such a thing as a crowded trade.
That seems to have been the source of much pain during the [more]

Mon Jul 27

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:29 PM

The best ideas are the ones you steal?

Strategy:
Find what hedge funds are buying.
Ignore the large cap stocks, they mostly just track the market.
But the small cap stocks being bought by the largest number of hedge funds.

[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 PM

Re: BYD

From FT, market cap HK$140.7bn

Consensus earnings for 2015 and 2016 are HK$.7315 and HK$.9925. (price is HK$32.80).

But the range of estimates is very wide: for 2015 the ranges is from HK$.33 to HK$1.20.
So, basically, nobody [more]

Sun Jul 26

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:30 PM

Re: Why buy gold?

A fun (if dark) thought experiment...
Which would have lost more purchasing power in the last two years, gold or the drachma had there been one?

Not arguing, just musing that real safety in wealth protection
probably comes from [more]

Sat Jul 25

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:36 PM

Re: OT: More CBI

.thanks for taking the time to think about this and communicate so clearly about it!

ha!
Virtually everything I know about investing was learned either here,
or by the research I did in the five minutes after an interesting [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:43 PM

Re: Market Timing with Value and Momentum

A natural question is what happens when we combine the valuation-based signals with the momentum-based signals?

I've often thought that a good way to combine them would be very simple:
Imagine a momentum signal that has a single [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:40 PM

Re: Barron's cover: "Buffett better than ev

Did have some Canadian bacon soaked in maple syrup.

Peameal bacon, please. Only gringos call it Canadian bacon : )

Jim

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