mungofitch’s Activity

Wed Feb 25

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:34 PM

Re: Calling anyone who wants commission free tra

Its on their web site. Its their headline feature.

Today Fool.com's lead on the home page

Just Leave it Alone
A look at industry returns over the past fifty years shows the power
[more]

Tue Feb 24

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:18 PM

Re: BRK-B, psychological test or fundamental?

I suspect it's neither psychological nor technical, just random variation.

If you look at a graph of the ratio of share price to share value through
the years you can see how wild and unpredictable such swings are.
That's true of [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:02 AM

Re: More $$ Headed To Omaha

So you are right, Jim. KO was a superior investment if one bought it on Jan 1, 1989
and held on to it for the last 26 years (by approx 2% annual, pre-tax).


FWIW, the difference has been 2.69%/year.
Assumes reinvestment of [more]

Mon Feb 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:10 PM

Re: Why Deere?

Just curious. Wouldn't Long-term Debt to some cash flow measure (say, WEBs: Net Inc + Depr - Avg Capex) be a better measure than acct'g earnings?

If you use the right measure, sure.
In this case it might be something like [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:26 PM

Re: Why I love the market

Three companies account for 80% of my portfolio.
...
Is that hedged? Does that include the options/futures part of your port?


I have a lot of general purpose hedging. I didn't count that when counting the [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:21 PM

Re: Types of MI strategies

In the first one I'd change from "technical criteria" to "quantitative criteria".
"Technical" has a specific and narrow meaning if people read it in the sense of "technical analysis".
As phrased, it [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:11 PM

Re: Why Deere?

(6.2 tears of cash flow).

Freudian typo, no doubt. If only I knew what it meant...

S'posed to be "years".

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:10 PM

Re: More $$ Headed To Omaha

I agree that it shows KO was a decent investment, but it does not say whether it was
necessarily a better investment than the S&P 500 index over the life of the investment.


Nope. You just have to have a feel for [more]

Sun Feb 22

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:57 PM

Re: More $$ Headed To Omaha

What is the relevance of yield to cost?

It's mostly a measure of how magnificent a position has been to date.
Think of it as the product of a good growth rate and a very long-term-viable position, two good things.

You're [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:52 PM

Re: Why Deere?

This is a cyclical company, but with a very high debt load - 400% of equity...

Debt to equity isn't really all that useful a measurement. As a rule of thumb I recommend never looking at it.
Really great companies don't need any [more]

Fri Feb 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:18 PM

Re: Totally off topic

A 100 watt incandescent bulb under the battery and a rag on top usually worked. Otherwise a block heater did the trick.

I used to put a few bricks in the oven when I woke up.
Stack them next to the battery a few minutes before [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:10 PM

Re: Why I love the market

Awesome. It's just that we have very different definitions of KISS. LOL

Well, yeah. Got me there. I guess it's tricky at the picking stage, but then easy.
Three companies account for 80% of my portfolio.
At least the [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:10 PM

Re: Why I love the market

"So, based on this predictor, there is a 90% chance that the stock
market will be lower 10 years from now, after inflation."


FWIW, the real total return for the exact ten year interval was 3.44%/year, about 3.1% below [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:53 AM

Re: Totally off topic

I work in property management, and am involved with removing the snow, and repairing damage to roofs.

It is a great strain on me.


Sorry to hear that.
Buildings in Ottawa, for example, are designed for a 4 foot snow load. [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 8:35 AM

Re: Oil vs Oil companies

I am thinking of some pair trades.

Any thoughts on that?
I agree that some of the price movements seem nonsensical.
Exxon is a great deal when you can buy a share with a barrel of oil, less so when it takes two.
They are [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:08 AM

Re: Totally off topic

Copy and paste this into your browser, if you want to see what the winter of your worst nightmare looks like.

I think those would count as a pretty normal winter day in Ottawa.
But Boston isn't usually very prepared for it, so I [more]

Thu Feb 19

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:17 AM

Re: IBM, What's To Like

Each year, you're getting your 2.8% dividend, and your share increases 1.6% in price.
Again, what's to like? Or am I missing something?


Yes.
If management is capable of allocating capital better than setting it on fire in the [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:06 AM

Re: IBM, What's To Like

...a CAGR of positive 1.66%. [per share]
Let's say you're buying this thinking that with a 10% earnings yield, even if they jog in place forever, that's a pretty good ride


I hear you.
I note that that figure of EPS growth of [more]

Wed Feb 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:14 PM

Re: Funny stuff

Speaking as a former hedge fund manager, I am shocked, shocked, to hear it's all a sham.
And speaking as one who's married to a Cordon Bleu pastry chef, I'd like to point out that on a risk adjusted basis I'm skinny.

A hedge fund [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:04 PM

Re: Maybe the market is overvalued

I am sorry but when you have a >50% drawdown smack dab in the middle of your 10
yr prediction and still be off > than 100% at the end of 10yrs....


Hey, let's hear it for failure!

End points are pretty random. [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 75055
Score 0.00
Score Change Today 0
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 0
Total Picks 0
Best Pick ( 0)
Worst Pick ( 0)
Average Score per Pick 0.00
Charms Earned 1
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to mungofitch’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool
Board Posts 16134
Recs Received 106369
People who have rec'd these posts 2272
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 31.10
Threads Started 1495
Threads Started Percentage 9.27 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 84.51 %
Show mungofitch’s 10 Latest Posts