mungofitch’s Activity

Sat May 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:55 PM

Re: Buffett is overpaying

You guys got hair?!

J

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:09 PM

Re: Explorations of YldEarnYear_SI

The number of stocks in the overall GTR1 universe varies wildly through time
...
You've repeatedly asserted this "principle", but to me it is a hypothesis, and not a very clear one, until you present some evidence for
[more]

Fri May 22

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:16 PM

Re: OT: Tobin's Q - what is it good for?

What am I missing?

I cheat.
For firms better measured by book value growth, I use a synthetic P/E ratio.

The general notion is that with earnings, they show up in your hands one
way or the other: either a dividend, [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:48 PM

Re: Opinion piece BY Buffett

IIRC, you also will have tremendous difficulty firing the person if they don't work out.
You're basically stuck paying the wage while getting minimal value. Might as well have not hired in the first place.


Oh yeah. You have no [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:17 PM

Re: Opinion piece BY Buffett

He clearly understood that increasing the minimum wage hurt the very people that such increases are designed to help.

Oh, I think it helps most of the people it's intended to help. They get more money and keep their [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:42 PM

Re: Opinion piece BY Buffett

Ahh, tax. What a wonderful subject.

This is a way to really do something about income inequality in an intelligent way,
and it is a credit to WB that he is making the public case for it.


Seems reasonable.
I [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 PM

Re: Opinion piece BY Buffett

Not being American, a question: is the EITC a refundable or non-refundable tax credit?
i.e., is the maximum one can gain from it equal to the tax you would otherwise have paid?
Or can your net take-home exceed your nominal gross pay from your [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:44 AM

Re: OT: Tobin's Q - what is it good for?

If the discussion doesn't include this, then the value didn't change. Think: current interest rates.
...
I agree with the above, but the example of current interest rates is contrary to what Mr. Buffett said...
"On the other hand
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 11:28 AM

Re: Getting way too fancy

Using WEB’s 2 rules, I’d prolly lunge into a bedspread and make a struggle for
the ballcap loss protection strategy using declining known advances as a hinge against further prices.
Did I get that right? What's an
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:14 AM

Re: Explorations of YldEarnYear_SI

There is no liquidity filter that is right for everyone, and for any one person,
the right liquidity filter at hypothetical points in the past is undefined,
so I'd stick with the most liquid half (by 63-day average daily dollar volume)
[more]

Thu May 21

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:49 PM

Re: Posco - is anyone getting interested

On China's supposedly closing the mills here is what I see...

My point is merely that this too shall pass.
There have been wild gyrations in Chinese demand, supply, and price, and often not connected to one another or at the same [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:41 PM

Re: On Taking Candy From Strangers

GHU is quite nice when we have email conversations off board.
I think his contrariness hereabouts is more the exception, perhaps in part for dramatic effect.
I'm certainly not nearly as nice as I pretend to be!

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:38 PM

Re: Explorations of YldEarnYear_SI

Not to complain, but you might want a better way to validate liquidity than top X% by average dollar volume.

The number of stocks in the database varies wildly, and has discontinuities,
so that number jumps around a lot. Almost a factor [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:10 PM

Re: Getting way too fancy

Did I even come close?

Beats me.
I figured somebody else might have a good answer, and tell us!

There are some relatively obvious approaches, a basic straddle or strangle, but nothing compelling springs to mind [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:55 PM

Re: On Taking Candy From Strangers

if I wrap my Tesla around a telephone pole at 130 MPH in the midst of a rainstorm.

Oh no, don't get me started on Tesla again ....
: )


By the way, I agree with you mightily.
I am a far, far better investor now [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 11:45 AM

Re: Posco - is anyone getting interested

As far as I can tell, the investment thesis has revolved primarily along the following lines:

- A commodity business is a horrible thing, but it's not really so bad if you're the low cost producer, and stay that way.
Posco has [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:44 AM

Re: The next GTR1?

Still two problems I can see
- Still takes a million bucks worth of data purchases
- I question whether there exist any as-yet-unknown investing methods which have sufficient
predictive power, longevity, and real world implementability [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Falling Knives board. 10:40 AM

Getting way too fancy

It's likely that the best way to make money in financial markets is to buy stock in really great companies when they are reasonably priced.
But, hey, that's not always the most fun way.
So here's a fun one for you.

Yahoo owns [more]

Wed May 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:35 PM

Re: WMT down 4.5% to $76.31

what seems "compelling" at this point?

Not so much.
IBM and CBI? I do love "cheap".

And shorting the S&P is going to start to look pretty compelling.

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:43 AM

Re: CBI

Would this possible short squeeze cause shares to shoot quite a bit higher from here?

Quite possible, but far from certain.
A stock can remain fashionable among the shorts for a surprisingly long time.
Still, if there is no [more]

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