mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:26 PM

Re: Pressure's on...

The entire point of bear market requires cash to take advantage is to make equity investments during bear market.
If he is not deploying cash in equities in bear market, then the argument has no merit.


In an equity bear market, [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:54 AM

Re: Pressure's on...

In the 2007 crisis, how much money Berkshire deployed?

About $46bn starting from spring 2008.
That's not counting the $8bn to exercise Goldman and GE warrants--investment not-commitments teed up but not using actual cash [more]

Sun Jan 21

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:22 PM

Re: Pressure's on...

That's true as long as Buffett deploys the cash in profitable ways. Currently over $100B is sitting
on the balance sheet. The cash is growing up. A prudent capital allocation would involve distributing the
excess cash back to the
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:09 PM

Re: Daily dollar volume for ETFs

ETF's with low volume general have higher bid/ask spread. So that is what I limit to control the cost of trading instead of concern for price movement.

Generally we use daily dollar volume as a proxy for bid/ask spread (and price [more]

Sat Jan 20

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:31 AM

Re: US Dollar

Not me.
I used to do that sort of thing, but currencies are vastly harder to predict than stocks. And stocks are hard to predict.

Separately, interest rates are rising pretty steadily in the US.
The yield differential usually creates [more]

Fri Jan 19

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:48 PM

Re: Jain 109MM stake in BRK.

Maybe he bought $800k worth when he started at Berkshire in 1986? That would do it.
(the math's right, though I don't suggest that's all it was).

A few bonuses might have helped. Not everybody at Berkshire is as low-paid as [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:38 PM

Re: OT: Chart games

So a 60/40 combination of VTI & VBR would equal the returns earned in RSP with less than half the costs.

Well, just two quick comments.
You've switched from large cap to small, and added a value filter, so it's not [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:26 PM

Re: OT: Chart games

<So beating "the market" is clearly possible, and without too much fancy analysis either.
...
It sure is...just take more risk!


Or less.
As mentioned, RSP is less risky than SPY, and does [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:06 PM

Re: OT: Chart games

If WEB hasn't been able to outperform RSP since inception (almost 15 yrs) I doubt anyone else can. He is the GOAT.

The tie is a very interesting phenomenon.
(BRK has pulled ahead a hair lately, 15 year to yesterday is 10.74% [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:50 AM

Re: OT: Chart games

It may or may not be "close", but it certainly is silly. And futile. Always ask yourself, "What am I trying to accomplish?" and "Does this tactic advance me toward that goal?"

I was suggesting it as an [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:44 AM

Re: Pilot Flying J Fraud Trial

The unfortunate thing is that, even if Berkshire was going to do a deal, they didn't buy the *whole* firm.
If they had, then (a) it would be easy for me to believe they got a good deal as it was a way for the current owners
to distance [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:38 AM

Re: OT: Chart games

* Weight by sum of ranks. Biggest firm of N firms gets weight N, smallest firm gets rank 1.
...
I think you could do this with a market cap ranking and come out okay too, and it's a bit easier.



Well, it's close, [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:00 AM

Re: OT: Chart games

I'm sure I'm wrong but it does look like RSP is a bit riskier than SPY:
RSP 10 year standard deviation 17.70
SPY 10 year standard deviation 15.08


Standard deviation of short term returns is not a useful proxy for risk. [more]

Thu Jan 18

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:30 PM

Re: OT: Chart games

Yes, equal weight has underperformed the last 5 years.

Yup.
They were a tie (net) from 5 years ago to 1 year ago, but SPY is the winner this year.

Interestingly, the changes in leadership have coincided almost perfectly [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:20 PM

Re: Poll: Berkshire. Buy, sell, or hold

HODL.*

Why?
My usual approach of basing these things (position sizing etc.) on sane central expected returns is out the window for a while.
Neither book nor pretax earnings have the meanings they did, so comparisons are a little [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:45 PM

Re: Buffett 1 hr CNBC video - 2018/1/10

Looking at most of my other holdings, there's no such big gain. Too much ex-US activity and/or generally low effective tax rates.
...
DLTR? : )


Fair point. Though I did say "most" : )

I'm not sure [more]

Wed Jan 17

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the White Mountains Insurance Group board. 4:15 PM

Re: Book

I have added to my position for the first time in years given the low P/B.

Me too, a little while back. November during the short term strength, of course.

I have to say, it also reinforces your faith in management to see [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Falling Knives board. 3:20 PM

FKA: Nothing.

Draw your own conclusions?

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:20 PM

Re: OT: Chart games

Imagine trying to keep an equal-weight portfolio consisting of some of the great companies of 1995.
AT&T, Boeing, General Motors, Caterpillar, Eastman Kodak, Sears. The big question is whether you'd
abandon the equal-weight
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:04 PM

Re: Global investment returns, 1900-2016

in 2017 "Mines" was a significant sector in UK, but in the US has virtually disappeared.
You might suspect that UK is a bit more enlightened in the way it applies environmental regulations.


The issue in this case would [more]

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