mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:54 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

So why the dollar is not as green when you sell AMZN shares to take money out but with Berkshire or any other stock that shows GAAP profits?

Rather than saying "Amazon", let's substitute "any firm which [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:56 AM

Re: income portfolio

why not use value line rated 1 stocks?

They tend to be growth/momentum oriented. There are times that works very well, and times it really doesn't.
As a group they outperformed the S&P 500 nicely in 2007, 2010 and 2013, [more]

Sat Jul 22

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:25 AM

Re: WEBsite: hipster icon?

It downloaded the following page almost instantly, but it took 40 seconds to display it.

https://boincstats.com/en/stats/-1/user/detail/27086/charts
[more]

Fri Jul 21

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:34 PM

Re: Berkshire Price vs. OT Posts

I'm wondering if you have any data that correlates Berkshire's medium-term price movement following periods on
this board in which maybe 99% of the posts for months on end have nothing to do with Berkshire? Seems like it implies
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:52 PM

Re: BRK vs SPX

I remember being told that balancing one's BRK investment with index funds would provide a proper boat anchor to avoid unsightly outperformance.

Seems reasonable. An insult, but also a truism.
Anchors do provide stability, [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:58 AM

Re: BRK vs SPX

What do you make of the fact that for book and 2.5 column, Berkshire's 5-year performance is significantly better than both 10 and 15-year

Random noise, but also some not-quite-random.
Five years of bull market.
The [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:37 AM

Re: BRK vs SPX

Even though I'm a huge Berkshire fan (and hugely long) it is sad but true that Berkshire has not demonstrated
any market return outperformance in a surprisingly long time, especially relative to the S&P equal weight index.
But this [more]

Thu Jul 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:50 PM

Re: The Story of Berkshire and Blue Chip Stamps

Here's the part I can't figure out.
Blue Chip was still in business last I heard, and had revenues in 2006 of $26,920.
From what? Still selling stamps to participating retailers?

Jim

Wed Jul 19

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:54 AM

Re: Keeping Tabs on Buffett's Charity

Probably the biggest boost to the Giving Pledge would be if Forbes could be convinced to start ranking people not on their estimate
of current net worth, but what their net worth would currently be had they not given bags of money to [more]

Tue Jul 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:26 PM

Re: OT are we in a bubble

Relevant chart of the day: ...

Yes, I saw that same chart referenced at Mr Hussman's site recently.

But it has some annoying classic errors which weaken its credibility.
It should be a semilog graph, and the debt [more]

Mon Jul 17

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:32 PM

Re: OT: fun way to lose money

SPX has some interesting differences with SPY as an investment vehicle, options or otherwise, particularly for those subject to U.S. taxes:

Just so everybody is clear, the suggestion relates to put options as insurance contracts [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:26 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Comparing an absolute bubble with Amazon stock price which had a sustained run for 20 years shows
a lack of understanding, just like you are anchoring on that $2.7B net income.
It is not just you, many investors and individuals take the
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:50 AM

Re: OT: Sears/Lampert saga

I have followed off and on.
Once upon a time I made a lot of money writing puts, since, though the business results have been terrible, the mood of the
market has at times been far worse than that. Their merely staying in business was [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:13 AM

OT: fun way to lose money

My tea leaves actually suggest the market will keep rising for a while yet. New highs, great breadth.

But...you know...the broad US market valuation is at record highs and option prices at near record lows.
If one were ever going to buy [more]

Sat Jul 15

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:48 PM

Re: BOMN-WEB's Nephew

Well, after the original post it caught my attention because of the billboards. Billboards are a good ham sandwich can run it business. They have at the very least hit a good idea there...

That was my first thought.
My second [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:35 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Very clever, very genius. One would think they would get tired of being proven wrong over a
couple decades but still a lot of geniuses out there doing the figuring and calculating.


Is a good market outcome proof of good decision [more]

Wed Jul 12

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:55 PM

Re: weekly ledger: how to resurrect

I propose a monthly update which I could do through the stock price updates through my subscription-based Voldemort software

Would it not be pretty straight forward to continue it as a weekly thing using the dark lord's total [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:18 AM

Re: OT: CBI going forward

Right now, we see inflation only in equity markets, but the other markets, like your grocery store, will eventually follow suit.

I agree that we'll see US inflation if the US dollar money supply expands much.

But until [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:22 AM

Re: OT are we in a bubble

This is all true, but if you look at the last 150 years of stock market history, every time that P/E, P/S, and CAPE
have gotten up to current levels, forward 3-yr, 5-yr, and 10-yr returns have nearly always been quite poor for the S&P500.
[more]

Tue Jul 11

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:05 PM

Re: OT are we in a bubble

How many years now have we had high CAPE ratios in a row?
...
This is all true, but if you look at the last 150 years of stock market history, every time that P/E, P/S, and CAPE have
gotten up to current levels, forward 3-yr, 5-yr,
[more]

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