mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:04 PM

Re: Mungofitch, willyou please update?

I'm on the road right now, so no spreadsheets.
As I recall, the basic signal has worked pretty well since then.
That is the basic stochastics part: bullish if percentile above X.
I rolled it into my four method calendar month timing [more]

Tue May 3

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:28 PM

Re: Industry momentum

Have you tried the trout part? Stocks moving short term in the reverse direction of their industry?
...
Trout on sale...


Actually, I meant just adding it to this particular pair of screens : )

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:26 PM

Re: OT: biting the hand that feeds you

The real feeding hand to Amazon is customer, which Amazon is smart enough to know.

Hmmm, I figure the real feeding hand is the stock market.
The happy customer is merely the prerequisite to the happy stock buyer.

That's [more]

Mon May 2

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:02 PM

Re: Industry momentum

Have you tried the trout part?
Stocks moving short term in the reverse direction of their industry?

e.g., instead of final sort...
Sort high Industry 4wk Relative Strength

...you'd try something like...
Sort high [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:42 AM

Re: Circle of Competence

Though what you say is no doubt right, I do have some moderate sympathy for his view,
if only because it brings the discussion back in the direction of some calm rationality relative to some alarmists.

Most of the bad health effects from [more]

Sun May 1

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:22 PM

Re: Q1 Book Value?

is it crazy to think that Q1 book value will actually decline?

Probably.
Well, I wouldn't use the word "crazy". Perhaps "overly pessimistic".

There were after-tax earnings of about $5.589 billion. [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:41 AM

Re: Decade chart

1) 1.55 book and 2.5 column valuation track each other pretty well.
Do you expect this relationship to "break" any time soon? Have you seen
any cases where there is something useful you can do with 2.5 column
valuation
[more]

Fri Apr 29

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:24 PM

Re: OT: STX

I still have a position.

Their results could be better to say the least, but I don't think it's "the end" quite yet.
They won't be selling rotating hard drives forever, but I think the end will be a fairly long time [more]

NL

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:38 AM

Decade chart

I thought some people might find this chart interesting.
stonewellfunds.com/BuybackChart.jpg
It shows the price and the then-current buyback threshold. (1.1 times book value at first, [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:57 AM

Re: GTR1 buy-and-hold-forever: codable?

That detail was explained here http://boards.fool.com/daily-portfolio-values-25684221.aspx.

True enough!
Though it's partly in Latin : )

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:23 AM

Re: Amazon - AWS

[quarterly] Profit soared nearly 128% to $604 million from $265 million for the comparable quarter in 2015...

AWS is certainly doing tremendously well, but that statement is wrong—"financial journalism" strikes [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:48 AM

Re: Mr Katz

so in a strange way we may owe one to Mr. Katz—

One B share?

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:24 AM

Re: San

Say you have three companies A, B and C. ...

Too easy.

Perhaps a more interesting example might be this:
Say you have three companies A, B, and C.
All three have the exact same return on equity, growth rates, and [more]

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:04 AM

Re: GTR1 buy-and-hold-forever: codable?

linear(1,ord(1),-1,date2ord(20131231)) >= 0
...
What to say, other than express incredulous surprise?


I admit to the same surprise.
But, as you say, it's someone else's backtester, and we didn't write the [more]

Thu Apr 28

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:05 AM

Re: ETF long term strategy

(4) If it ain't 20 years, it ain't a backtest worth reading.
...
I hear ya but after you did all that manipulation could you trust it?


I do a backtest on the S&P using S&P total return data, not SPY data, so I can go [more]

NL

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:19 AM

Re: ETF long term strategy

I'd be tempted to test something like this

- Backfill every ETF with the historical data of the index it tracks.
Skip any ETF you can't get a whole lot of history for that way.
A 20 year minimum sounds good.
I got free [more]

Wed Apr 27

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:54 PM

Re: Annual meeting Livestream

I wonder if they'll have a replay link for a while...

Before the internet, boy, sometimes we had to wonder about things.

"An exclusive VOD replay will be available on Yahoo Finance for 30 days following the meeting. [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:06 PM

Re: Annual meeting Livestream

I was really looking forward to it.
But I will be on a plane. Very poor planning.

I wonder if they'll have a replay link for a while...

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:28 AM

Re: GTR1 buy-and-hold-forever: codable?

Speaking of minimizing taxes, holding losers forever is silly because there is no tax advantage in doing so.

Interesting point.
From a capital gains tax minimization point of view, that seems pretty clear.

But I am [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:16 AM

Re: Future Chairman Howard Buffett

It's not his company though. I agree that it was a brilliant strategic move!

I think the explanation for the different voting power is reasonably simple.
First, there is the minor point of encouraging ownership of A shares, and [more]

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