mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:52 PM

Re: Bill Gates about IBM

I believe Buffett has publically stated that neither he nor the two T's can buy MSFT for that exact reason.

Gee, I never noticed... Buffett has two Ts.

Jim

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:50 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

On the bogleheads board, people have threatened each other with violence.
Man, that's a step too far. I'd kill anyone who tried that here.

Jim

The MI board motto:
Beat the ideas within an inch of their lives.
But [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:04 AM

Re: Yet another stab at the Magic Formula

Oops, hit the wrong button.
I forgot the mention that it uses Timeliness 1-4.
Might as well eliminate a few obvious losers.

Jim

Sun May 3

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:45 PM

Re: 52 week highs

Numbers are great and everything but.... wasn't there a book titled "how to lie with statistics"? or something like that anyway.

Actually, 2.2% of all non fiction books are about that.

Jim

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:25 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

So according to VL, CBI's present price is 42% below present fair value, and 53% below fair value 3-5 years out...

Though my reasoning might be a bit different from theirs, the conclusion isn't so different.
Which is why I'm [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:07 PM

Re: 52 week highs

The gist of the conclusion isn't entirely wrong, though it would be more
compelling if they used the figures for real total return all time high.

In principle an index that drops 50% can be at fresh 52 week highs [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:58 PM

Re: Minor diversion

It's badly abusing the math, but a starting guess might be that a 4%
withdrawal rate back then might equate to a 4*3.81/5.38 = 2.8% withdrawal rate now.


It occurs to me that the way I phrased that could be misconstrued.

I [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:54 PM

Re: Bill Gates about IBM

What matters most is whether IBM can sustain, and hopefully grow, its earnings and free cash flow.


I'd have to agree that this is the only relevant question.
Adding "per share" on the end, of course.

These [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:28 PM

Re: Trend value estimate, rate of growth

It seems like the story of the quarter and year is the growth in operating earnings.

Yup.
But things have been rising quite rapidly just lately.
With all my adjustments my pretax non-investment earnings come out [more]

Sat May 2

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:05 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

There is a big difference between categories of cruises -- and passengers. The typical cruise is 7 days...
The other category is longer cruises - several weeks long - and these have mostly passengers who have cruised a lot.


The [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:14 PM

Trend value estimate, rate of growth

I created trailing 12 month figures from the Q1 statements, 2014 statements, and Q1/2014 statements.

My March 31 "adjusted" value calculation is up 4.4% year to date (one quarter) and 19% since end 2013 (five quarters).
Four [more]

Fri May 1

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:50 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

With longer term holds, the fundamental quality of selections becomes far more important.
Deep value guys help me understand this.

I have never once bought a stock just to get a warm fuzzy feeling.
I buy tickers to get returns not
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:19 AM

Re: Minor diversion

Nice summary.

That's the past, of course. Starting points matter, so the look ahead will be different.

I estimate trend earnings yield of the S&P 500 on his end-1994 start date at 5.38%.
(same method as the 10 year average [more]

Thu Apr 30

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:06 PM

Re: Free Kindle book: Buffett's Biggest Blunders

Short book?

Wed Apr 29

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:12 AM

Re: buying brkb puts

Overall, I am able to generate over $10 K a month doing this.
...
Looking at the Brk-B option chain, the Jan 2017 $100 strikes have a bid
of $1.46; ask of $2.26 and last trade of $1.7. I don't know how
realistic it is, but I am
[more]

Tue Apr 28

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:15 PM

Re: Bonds and Timing

Off topic, but I thought you might find this variant URL interesting.

[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:05 AM

Re: New S&P high

That data table is a welcome refresher Jim. I might point out that the
mounded returns being positive out to 150 days is why Z came upon a
modified longer cycle out to about that duration.
As can be seen 120 days is still a healthy
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:00 AM

Re: New S&P high

The reason I am very interested in an approach like this is because it's purely price based,
which makes it potentially applicable to any asset not just SPX or equities.


Be careful with that.
It seems equities have sharp [more]

Mon Apr 27

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:32 PM

Re: CBI First Quarter

Note that that quote is largely computer generated.
Not to say it's all wrong or even irrelevant, but it's not what you'd call deep insight.

Their earnings guidance for 2015 was unchanged.
Value Line expects earnings to be a bit [more]

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