mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:57 PM

Re: GTR1 question on null values

Does the step Z != null filter out any security with a null value for either X or Y?

Good question.
This sort of stuff is well defined in, say, SQL...in an ideal world multiplication by any NULL would be NULL.
I think you [more]

Tue Mar 28

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:40 PM

Re: GTR1 question on null values

I think I was the one who lobbied hard for this. It's not *quite* what I hoped for, but still useful.

The main use is to handle that a field is defined as null (implemented as a field specific invalid "default" value) on any [more]

Mon Mar 27

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:20 AM

Re: For mungo: Tontines could fill an income gap

But the aspect that I find disagreeable is the fact that the survivors may get far more than they really need, and when they die, they pass these funds along to their inheritors

A couple of notes on that.

At a top level, [more]

Fri Mar 24

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:17 PM

Re: OT: Bogle math

The broader context is that as long as passive funds are compelled to trade, you can't assume the
buy-and-hold math is valid. And they are. Even broad market ETFs have ~5% turnover ratios.


I think the bigger issue is simply [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:09 PM

Re: Predicting Future Returns from Valuation Lev

buffett and munger also use ~60% leverage:
http://docs.lhpedersen.com/BuffettsAlpha.pdf


Actually, as an aside, that's not true. Certainly not in the most meaningful [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:14 PM

OT: market valuation

I don't generally pay much attention to forward earnings estimates.
They're often so optimistic that they can have a pretty tenuous relationship with reality.
But, I suppose they do affect a lot of people who watch them.

On [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:14 PM

Re: OT: Bogle math

Cap weighted total market total return, before any fees = X

Divide into those who track that, and those who don't.

First fraction of that, from cap weighted total market tracking ETFs etc, before any fees, return also = [more]

Thu Mar 23

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:38 PM

Re: OT: Capitalism

one could also read some deep lesson about how saving is ultimately far more valuable than current consumption
...
I wonder about that...


I mentioned it only in the narrow sense of financial present value.
A marginal [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:30 PM

Re: Predicting Future Returns from Valuation Lev

Value's got nothing to do with it. There is no intrinsic value in a thing
...
All that matters is what is in the eye of the buyer and the seller, what each of them decides the value is TO THEM.
Res tantum valet quantum vendi
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:00 PM

Re: Predicting Future Returns from Valuation Lev

Isn't the "best" (or maybe the simplest) mental model for any financial security this?:
If a lot of "people" want to own that security...
....then the price goes up.
If "people" want out, the price
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:25 AM

Re: OT: Capitalism

a) Buying Apple stock was a better investment than buying Apple Computer
b) Buying computers (non Apple) was better than buying Apple stock
c) Jim does not understand tech investing
d) Capitalism works
e) No point, just rambling or
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:03 AM

Re: Predicting Future Returns from Valuation Lev

<< The price doesn't change because of "increased supply of stock in the sector". The price goes down (if it does) because the buyers don't want to buy at that high of a price. The price goes up (if it does) because the [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:38 AM

Re: Value Screen KORS

my Mungofitch inspired FT screener
...
Would you be willing to share said screener?


Just search "FT global equity screener".
[more]

Tue Mar 21

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:18 PM

Re: Predicting Future Returns from Valuation Lev

Reading all this, reminded me of a quote I have in my quotes file (I forgot who said it, though):
"Aren’t you glad you are a trend follower?..."


Just to be clear, lest anyone misunderstand, my comments have almost no [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:40 PM

Re: Value Screen KORS

Fashion is famously fickle

Personally, I exclude "specialty retail" and "apparel" industries when I'm screening. And lots of other industries, too.
All too often retailers grow, then they pop. Same with [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:44 AM

Re: Predicting Future Returns from Valuation Lev

1) Are you saying expected returns near zero on equities are acceptable given currently low inflation?
Is it really a good idea to take on the risk of equities if you believe expected returns will be
below risk-free Treasury bill yields?
[more]

Mon Mar 20

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:13 PM

OT: Capitalism

In November 1997 you could have bought an Apple G3 250MHz notebook, the fastest ever built, for about $5700.
You can buy that same computer on Ebay today for $86.
[more]

Sat Mar 18

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:04 PM

Re: Results during rate hike cycles

Old quote from the 1-2-3 model

When the Feds stay out of that way - that is, when they're not raising rates - we earn, on average, 10.9%
per year on stocks. This situation has occurred 71% of the time since the 1920s. However, for
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:03 PM

Re: FKA:VRX

Historically, as I'm sure you know, taking the other side of Ackman's bets would be a pretty surefire way to lose money. But as long as your contrarian position is motivated by going against Ackman,
and not against me, at least I
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:10 PM

Re: A Value Opportunity in Preferred Stocks

Would you be kind enough to explain the advantages and disadvantages of ETV? Dumb readers such as myself need all the learning we can get.

I don't know this particular security very well, but it is a buy-write ETF.

What [more]

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