mungofitch’s Activity

Today

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:21 PM

Re: brk-b or SPY etf

First, beware advice you get for free on the internet.
It's probably better on average than advice you pay for, since at least
it's disinterested, but it's probably still terrible advice on average.

That being said,
My "know [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:28 PM

Re: Lehman's is back!

PS

An interesting article on the legal bun fight over the name. Some good quotes in there!
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:23 PM

Re: Lehman's is back!

Barclays made the mistake of letting the trademark on the Lehman Brothers name expire, allowing them to use the now notorious moniker.

I love it!

Whenever you see really dark humour like this, you often quite reasonably see [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:17 PM

Re: Mungofitch Test

Compare the price/share of Fairfax (in dollars) against Berkshire (in dollars) over the last fifteen years.
Compare price per share year after year....and total over the entire time frame.
What the board will see, is Fairfax mauls
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:24 AM

Re: Market Trend Indicators

Anybody have any numbers on what happens historically after new 52 week lows in SP500?
I know that new 52 week highs are actually bullish until you extend the time frame to many months .


Nothing much very predictable that I've [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:15 AM

Re: Looking to add another screen

Well I ain't the one claiming you can outperform SPY with lower GSD with real world real money results.

Well, neither am I, per se.
I don't really pay that much attention to GSDm.

But it doesn't seem to be impossible at [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:03 AM

Re: Fairfax Versus Berkshire

EVERYBODY - no exclusions - is biased to some degree on all things.

True 'nuff.

But, there is a distinction worth making if one is talking about statements rather than feelings.
That exception applies when someone is [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:45 AM

Re: Munger: Jury Out On IBM

Apparently Munger didn't read Jim's memo:
"His ultimate conversion on IBM (right or wrong—a different issue) was based on the "aha" appreciation
that technological change as such doesn't matter to a firm which primarily
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:40 AM

Re: Bought a large IBM Position

I think, though, i can summarize buffett's investment thesis on IBM and it has ZERO to do with the fundamentals of the cloud.
1. Major repurchaser of stock
2. High ROE business
3. Low PE
4. Has a very sticky business and has been
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:54 AM

Re: Annual Report

Did they perhaps mean the printed version?
My understanding was that Berkshire is a "large accelerated filer"
meaning the 10-K, at least, has to be filed within 60 days of year end.
That need not include the chairman's letter, [more]

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 PM

Re: Simple thoughts on IBM

That is the problem. Everything around IBM including IBM is changing.

Clearly, you subscribe to the consensus view! No argument.
Maybe that's right.
Maybe it's even right in an extreme sense, and no solid future expectation [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:03 AM

Re: more factors/criteria tested

Ah, a ratio of dollar volume rather than volume. That would tend to include smaller increases in volume -- assuming the price is also increasing. :-)

My reasoning was merely that average daily volume isn't meaningful even compared to [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:37 AM

Simple thoughts on IBM

Here's a radical thought about IBM: what if nothing much changes?

It seems to be the one scenario that a lot of people are overlooking.
There are bears who think they're circling the drain, and bulls who think the reinvention
will [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:14 AM

Re: Looking to add another screen

Maybe GSD is useless but has anyone had real world results with CAGR>GSD?
If it isn't achievable with real world results why trust backtests where the CAGR>GSD?


Though as mentioned I don't really see it as a goal, I think it [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:50 AM

Re: Fairfax Versus Berkshire

And another thing.
The same day I posted a rant about how I wished Jim would have told us all to "SHORT THE MARKET" ...


That would be my Dec 13 post : )
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:21 AM

Re: Fairfax Versus Berkshire

Here are the numbers from Yahoo

Years FRFHF BRK-A
-----------------------------
1 *4.87% -14.6%
2 *35.6 10.3%
3 *39.9% 26.9%
4 30.9% *59.8%
5 *48.8% 40.6%
10 *405% 110%
20 *692%
[more]

Thu Feb 11

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:33 PM

Re: Looking to add another screen

I'm not suggesting all the screens are meaningless curve fitting.
I'm simply harping on about the notion that short term portfolio volatility is not a useful proxy for portfolio risk.

I guess the GSD bell curve is really trying to [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:09 PM

Re: Fairfax Versus Berkshire

Sorry, man. The facts have not changed whether we measure in equal currency or not.
Fairfax has absolutley mauled Berkshire almost over any given darn point.

So sad the sheep here will hang on anything you say. No matter. Facts are
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:25 PM

Re: Helpful quotations from Mungofitch

"Jim, in light of that, just curious what you would think about a business with the following annual ROE, starting in 2006, through until 2015:
22.8, 28.52, 27.19, 31.27, 35.28, 41.67, 42.84, 30.64, 33.61, 46.25"
...
Sorry if
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:59 PM

Re: Fairfax Versus Berkshire

BUT the way to own Fairfax is and has been by converting dollars to Canadian and then buying FFH on the Toronto stock exhange.
Any normal person managing money in the US would have done it this way.


I'm really sorry to be the [more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool
Board Posts 17709
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Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
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