mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:45 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Instead of looking at EPS numbers just look at the operating metrics of the
business segment, are they showing improvement in gross and net margins?


Umm, yes.
Revenues are the same as ten years ago, 2014 versus 2004, within [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:42 AM

Re: Daughter's brokerage acct, advice?

For an investor looking to buy RSP rather than SPY, does the CAPE ratio
or the Real On Trend E10 you have mentioned in previous posts need to
be adjusted in any way? When I download the quarterly earnings for the
index from the
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:40 AM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Notice that I did NOT mention growing earnings. IBM did a great job until today growing earnings. The only problem was that the top line aka sales were going down NINE quarters in a row. It is pretty clear that you cannot continue to grow earnings [more]

Tue Oct 21

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:32 PM

Re: OT: IBM..."It’s a terrible mista

McDonalds doesn't grow vegetables, doesn't raise chicken, doesn't run the shops, so why is there a need to own the computer HW?

I think the answer is pretty obvious. They don't have to.
Outsourcing the computing to a third party [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:02 PM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

In this king of investing it's potentially quite a big difference.

Freudian typo?
I meant "kind of investing".

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 PM

Re: OT: SP 500

Seeks to replicate as closely as possible the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, before fees and expenses, on a daily basis...

Real total return of the S&P 500 and its predecessors 1930-01-02 through 2014-10-06: [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:41 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Maybe, just maybe, NOW is the time to be greedy when others are fearful?

Maybe.

A friend of mine, with whom I trade investment ideas, sent me an email message today suggesting I should sell.
I have no idea whether it [more]

Mon Oct 20

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:37 PM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

Icahn has returned 27% annualized over a 52-year period.

My understanding is that this is the IRR he claims, not the CAGR.

In this king of investing it's potentially quite a big difference.
Every time he invests in [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:02 PM

Re: OT: IBM..."It’s a terrible mista

After COP, IBM is the second biggest mistake of Buffett in dollar amount.
IBM is having issues on two fronts
- Competition is relentless
- Execution is poor
Additionally, they are siphoning money out to repurchase shares while
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:43 PM

Re: OT: SP 500

Best (arguably) RSP.

Not the lowest charge, though. For that it's probably Vanguard.


This is the correct answer.

Despite the very slightly higher fee RSP is likely to outperform a lower
fee capitalization [more]

Sun Oct 19

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:20 PM

Re: Maybe you should care what "they" say.

I showed your choice would have lost capital in the last five years after inflation, and ought to expect that to continue.
Plus a giant one time loss if interest rates return even part way towards normal.

You present a week's performance [more]

Sat Oct 18

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:06 PM

Re: Ted and Todd - Results

Thirty years ago and back when Buffett made his comment that 6.5% or
whatever he said was "normal", foreign profits accounted for less than
15% of S&P 500 profits. Today foreign derived profits account for almost
half
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:36 AM

Re: OT: Business Development Companies

Remember the saying about reaching for yield.

I don't care what they say. Yield is better than trying to get water out of a stone or a dividend from Warren Buffet.
For cash lying around I like the Vanguard GNMA fund. Very
[more]

Fri Oct 17

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:48 PM

Re: Ted and Todd - Results

There's one problem with those data, it's based on an assumption
that profit margin should remain the same over a few decades. That's dubious.
...
It's best to quote Buffett again on this:
"Investors should be skeptical of
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:07 PM

Re: Mungo's 99D Hi + NHNL

It looks like your have tempted fate and the market is out to get anyone who dared to follow this theory.

More than tempting fate, it looks as if I was simply wrong.

However, my expectation is that a bounce is [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:50 PM

Re: Daughter's brokerage acct, advice?

Oh crap, If I exclude my 401k & RE, I have about 90% of my investments in 9
of the top 25 at the moment. The great majority of that in the top 6 names.


The general rule and the specific instance can certainly be [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:27 AM

Re: Daughter's brokerage acct, advice?

This guy argues that the outperformance of RSP vs SPY is either (a) mean reverting to zero or (b) real but due to increased risk.

Having looked at this issue in extreme detail, and tested it, I feel confident simply saying he's simply [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Chesapeake Energy Corp. board. 7:47 AM

Re: Are we there yet...?

I thought I recalled you giving up on this sector? :<)

I have given up expecting to make a return in this sector.
Now I'm working on giving up investing in it.
It's a process. One day at a time.

In this case I have [more]

Thu Oct 16

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:59 PM

Re: Daughter's brokerage acct, advice?

What I find hard to fathom is that these randomly chosen subsets of the 1700 somehow beat the performance of the whole.

The secret here is that "the whole" as usually defined is capitalization weighted.
Most companies [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Chesapeake Energy Corp. board. 4:54 PM

Re: Are we there yet...?

Maybe now, at $17.80

Dang, missed the bottom by a day.
Coulda had it yesterday's close for three cents less.
Still, not so shabby, up 17% today, so the two day return is good.

The interesting thing is whether they can [more]

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