mungofitch’s Activity

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3 hours ago

Re: OT: Zero Hedge

...officially reserving a place in Hell for people who throw Buffett quotes at every issue.

It's probably the repetition that gets to you. Solution? You just gotta mix it up a bit.

"Searching is half the fun: [more]

Wed Jan 11

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 12:10 PM

Re: Hard to read

Try as I may, I have not been able to find your numbers...

I can't find some of them immediately either--it was a while ago.
But be assured I didn't make 'em up and was very careful to put the "per BAM share" [more]

Tue Jan 10

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:29 PM

Re: FYI: Blackrock Quants achieve record losses.

Renaissance has James Simons. That is the reason for its performance.

Well, I believe he is mostly retired since around 2010.
But they have certainly built something that nobody else has been able to replicate, which is [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 4:21 PM

Re: Hard to read

I get:
Year equity shares bk/sh FFO
2015 21568 1003.3 21.50 2559
2014 20153 983.2 19.69 2160
2013 17781 976.6 18.03 3376
2012 18150 987.0 16.51 1356
2011 16751 985.7 15.12 1052
2010 12795 924.2 13.84
[more]

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mungofitch posted to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 12:38 PM

Hard to read

I have a goodly chunk of BAM.
But the reason I haven't promoted it to a Really Big Position is that I find it maddeningly hard to get the valuation metrics I want from them.
Their presentations now all seem to be aimed at their [more]

Mon Jan 9

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:22 PM

Re: Where's The Celebration?

Lets say we have a company on a 2% div yield, and 3 price/book, and it grows book 10% in a year and then pays out the dividends.
So...
$100 market value
$33.33 book value at the start of the year.
$36.66 book value at the end of
[more]

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:54 AM

BNSF exec wins an award

Every year, one of the FT journalists gives out awards for the most horrible corporate language abuses.
But read on...

[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:28 AM

Re: OT - Futures brokerage recommendation?

I looked at interactive brokers, but they charge an inactivity fee if you don't trade a certain number of times a month.
Is there a broker that's good for infrequent traders?


Seems harsh to say, but if you can't [more]

Sun Jan 8

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:09 PM

Re: Where's The Celebration?

You guys are underestimating the distorting effect of buybacks on book value.
Buyback yield has been 3+% every year from 2013 to 2016. First order
approximation, that makes book value 88% of what it should be, and
increases the
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:51 PM

Re: 10 Year Backtests to 2017

Considering the large spread, the large commissions (compared to stock
commissions) and the high turnover, there is a huge amount of friction in
options. Not to mention the sharks who are waiting at the expiration to
chomp down on
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:16 AM

Re: Where's The Celebration?

... plus all the consumer stocks like Coke, P&G, etc. As you mentioned, firms like Moody's, Amex, etc also are part of the index.
So it seems like the group of firms whose book value does not say much about their
intrinsic value
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:55 AM

Re: Where's The Celebration?

I'm not sure it's entirely correct to add in 2% for dividends,
as the 2% dividend value is from the market cap, whereas we're
currently operating on a P/book ratio of 2.98. So you should be
adding in 2% * 2.98 = 5.96%,
[more]

Sat Jan 7

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:48 PM

Re: Where's The Celebration?

But I am still not convinced that change in book value of S&P 500
approximates the change in intrinsic value of S&P 500 index (after
accounting for dividends). For instance I have trouble with the notion
that change in
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:06 AM

Re: 10 Year Backtests to 2017

I took his SIP post discovery data up to that point and:
Eliminated all screens without at least 2 years of post discovery performance.
Then ranked the remaining screens by their post discovery outperformance compared to the
[more]

Fri Jan 6

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:50 AM

Re: 10 Year Backtests to 2017

Ten year gtr1 backtest results for standard SIPro screens (monthly hold 5) are below. Sorted by Sharpe ratio.

Thanks for posting that~~

The outstanding results for VG-Horse might safely be discounted a lot because most of the [more]

Thu Jan 5

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 5:55 AM

Re: BAM Question -- Gaining Comfort on Forward R

Hey Jim (or anybody). Any thoughts on "how" to buy BAM? Deep In The Money calls - except no LEAPs?
Plus they tend to raise the dividend - which is bad for call option holders, right? Selling puts - but nonexistent fear? SSF - not
[more]

Wed Jan 4

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:26 PM

Re: 10 Year Backtests to 2017

Great work.

Might I suggest/request posting the same thing 5 deep, more the way most are used?
Zee showed that this was statistically significant enough to be a good basis for mechanical screen selection.
Few people go 10 deep, and, [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:21 PM

Re: Philadelphia Semi ETF SOXX Discussion board

Base rates should be the bedrock of rational expectations.
...
To me that implies commodity stocks under valued for the short term.


One way to go about that.
What's the long run average rate of return for that class of [more]

Tue Jan 3

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 PM

Re: Where's The Celebration?

I'd peg the long term (10+ year) appreciation to be closer to 4-8% at these levels.
I'll plan around it being 5% and look forward to being pleasantly surprised.


FWIW, I have a few models that predict forward one year BRK [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:58 AM

Re: Philadelphia Semi ETF SOXX Discussion board

Sure, but says nothing about growth stocks.
Junk != growth. !Value != growth. Maybe our definitions of growth stocks are wildly different.



The industry standard practice is to define growth stocks to a large extent as those [more]

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