mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:26 PM

Re: The behemoth rolls on

“Since becoming a public company in 1997, Amazon has earned less than $2 billion in cumulative net profits.
In contrast, Apple made $2 billion in net profit every 11 days last quarter," he said.



"Sorry, you can [more]

Thu Jan 29

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:13 PM

Re: Turners screen

So, is this bad boy screen gonna make it to "Rebel's Rankings"?

Early days yet.
I think there is a lot of room for improvement.
Weird effects with the market cap check and ties because of the way it's [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:38 AM

Re: The behemoth rolls on

It would appear that a LOT of money got rolled into Apple today...

Certainly a lot of money rolled into Apples coffers in the last quarter.
After tax profits just shy of a dollar per month per human.
The sold 9.37 phones per [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:22 AM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

In 1962 a guy named Mr Coppock designed a simple signal for determining such points: upswings after big dips...

An interesting footnote to that signal.
It gives a "buy" when a particular curve turns upwards at a month [more]

Wed Jan 28

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:22 PM

Re: Turners screen

Strangely, however, CAGR drops a couple more points when I add the
appropriate deblanking steps for all the field files you're using,
and also change the number of five-day "weeks" over which beta is
measured from 160 to
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 12:19 PM

Re: FKA: Seagate (STX)

Why do you prefer STX over WDC.?

I can't remember for the life of me.
A better way to look at it is that I prefer STX to most other stocks,
because I have done a lot of analysis on it, and have very little in
the way of [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:10 AM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

I know it is expensive, but why not hedge with some puts?

Too expensive.
If the market *doesn't* drop a lot, and soon, you lose maybe 4%/year on your whole portfolio.
The market won't do well, but there is no reason to think [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:05 AM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

The current market is not cheap, it is a good idea to have more cash on hand than normal, but still good to be largely invested.

I think it likely depends on what you own.
I'm short the overall US market. But I'm (more) long [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 8:39 AM

Re: FKA: Seagate (STX)

Concern from seeing wdc last 2 years numbers, flat revenues.

For both firms, I don't worry about that at all. Revenues per share a bit, sustainable profits per share concern me a lot.

The questions for me are whether they're [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:24 AM

Turners screen

Nobody seems to invent screens any more, so here's something for the new year.

Also, I'm known as a value screen kind of guy, so I'll try something new on that front too.
What's wrong with growth once in a while?

Specifically, [more]

Mon Jan 26

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:10 PM

Re: FKA: Seagate (STX)

I love financial headlines. For entertainment purposes only, of course.
"Seagate Profit Soars on Revenue Growth" - Wall Street Journal
"Seagate (STX) Q2 Earnings, Revenues Fall Short of Estimates" - [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:45 PM

Re: Whatever happened to Superior 6 ?

I track it two ways.
(a) with the Russell 2000
(b) check each month end in the past to see whether Russell 2000 or S&P 500 equal weight did better at that month end.
Use whichever historically did best in the past in the current [more]

Fri Jan 23

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:19 AM

Re: IBM

Do you have any that didn't take place during one of the bigger stock market run-ups in history?

Such a list for the future would probably be handier than one for the past : )

Just did a quick scan of Value Line.
Stocks [more]

Wed Jan 21

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:52 PM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?

FWIW

IBM expects 2015 earnings to come in around $15.75-16.50 a share.
I don't think many informed observers think that this is particularly unlikely.
Their earnings per share might rise or fall in future in real terms, but there [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:16 PM

Re: Good blend

Again - what else would you want to know to evaluate this blend?


How many years since the blend was formulated?
How many years since each contributing screen was formulated?

Never underestimate the power of curve [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:48 PM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?


and revenue continues to plunge.


Just curious...why would you think that IBM's revenues would matter?
Within a given business unit, yes,
but within a large and rapidly changing collection of businesses, no.

Jim

Mon Jan 19

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:36 AM

Re: trailing stops

Personally I like the idea of a relative-to-market trailing stop.
i.e., don't sell when the price drops a bit, sell when the stock starts underperforming.

By coincidence this is what you get (to a greater or lesser degree) from any MI [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:43 AM

Re: OT: FF4

That paper indicates that high-beta stocks will produce higher returns

Epistemology to the front. What do you mean by "higher"?
Higher than a cap weighted index?
The lesson of that whole paper is that there is one [more]

Sat Jan 17

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:37 PM

Re: OT: LUK and the Swiss Franc

Jefferies Group is in talks to give FXCM a $200M lifeline, reports Bloomberg

One of the more interesting things from this deal is that it was ultimately
done by Leucadia (parent), not Jefferies (sub). It's really more of a Jef [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:28 PM

Re: Stop Loss?

But when a stock craters 8%+, it usually is not coming back.

Made me grin.
Must be some screens you use!

I'm a value screen guy.
If a stock isn't overvalued when you buy it, and the company's long
run business [more]

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