mungofitch’s Activity

Sat Apr 21

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:24 PM

Re: Yield Curve Inverting ?

Figure 4 shows a breakdown of the wealth. I seems to show that equity valuations are the major factor in the current wealth bubble.

Good point.
But I'm not entirely comforted.
This table is a ratio, so a long term growth [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:12 PM

Re: Yield Curve Inverting ?

This is the paper that was mentioned...

Nice little article
I wish I could find the full model of the red line in Figure 2.

I presume it's based on the work in this article cited in the references appendix
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:38 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

So what do you get in today's money (assuming that same $500B valuation)? You paid $2500 per
subscriber (5 years down) that generates $250 per year. If you like that's a 15x PE (for a cash cow today).


Coincidentally [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:24 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

Of course, plenty of people have completely dumb reasons for buying it.

Wow, brave fellow.
Around here that statement is as incendiary as espousing market timing : )

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:07 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

One way I like looking at Amazon is market cap ex AWS (I like the retail business a lot more than AWS).

FWIW, in terms of moaty value I'd rate them this way as a WAG:

Best: The software in AWS, possibly a third of the [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:10 AM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

I think missing the forest would describe your post perfectly.

Um, I don't follow. Unfortunately it seems that's because there's no sequitur to follow.

I merely pointed out that those metrics of Amazon's [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:58 AM

Re: Valuation, profits matter... not really

What is their moat? Oh, I don’t know, how about the brand that people will pay hundreds more for?
...
How about the lock-in of the operating system? The 90% repeat buys? The reputation for good products,
good stores, good service?
[more]

Fri Apr 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:05 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

Let that sink in slowly, so that you understand how dominant Amazon truly is. Some cult stock

The population of people who are attracted to Amazon as clients is not the same as the population that is attracted to Amazon as an equity [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:49 PM

Re: Valuation, profits matter... not really

Amazon is just a retailer. If a WalMart supplier mixes - I don't know, real nuts and bolts in a
packet of salted nuts, is WalMart liable? If they source soda from "Pepti Cola" or "Coka Cola", is
that
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:14 PM

Re: AAPL (OT)

Pretty hefty 'add' in Q4 '17 around $169.

Handy table. Assuming it's right---
So, we own 1/30th of Apple now, about $28bn worth, average entry $130, up so far 20% = $4.6bn pretax or $3.62bn after 21% tax [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:57 PM

Re: Challenged?

"For ETFs can you do market on close orders? If yes, then no slippage, but again you are not sure of the final price."

As an aside, with "on close" orders you're not sure of the final price you're going to [more]

Thu Apr 19

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:11 AM

Re: 50% returns

Maybe the system beats the market (in back testing), just not by as much as first hoped (or hyped)?
He talks a good game, seems genuine.


I don't doubt this at all. (neither the market beating, nor the good faith).
In fact, [more]

Wed Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:48 PM

OT: Short term paper

Cash, famous for its uselessly low returns, can have a great return if it's deployed at just the right moment.
It's yield in theory is nothing, but its yield in real life can't be divorced from how it gets used.

Bonds are [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:29 PM

Re: 50% returns

I'm just hoping for a two percentage point or so improvement over a Vanguard 500 index fund.

Certainly the highest ratio of extra returns to extra work would be buying RSP instead of SPY.
The next step would be replacing some [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:37 AM

Re: 50% returns

When Greenblatt actually tried this in a mutual fund it didn't work, and he went on to some other
idea (long/short...not sure how that's doing since I bailed). Perhaps it doesn't scale?


Or the backtests were [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 6:21 AM

Re: FKA: NWL

An article on Newell, recap of analysis by Wells Fargo.
https://sgbonline.com/wells-fargo-upgrades-newell-brands-on-...

Surprisingly, it [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:55 AM

Re: Meb Faber's ideas

Finally, the third point is a little controversial, but it is that dividend investing is not the best way to invest.
First, a dividend stocks do beat the broad market. That being said first you pay taxes on the dividends quarterly.
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:56 AM

Re: 50% returns

I expect INTC to do $3.5 EPS and at that price it is 15-16 x not 27x.

I expect many things. Only some of them are going to happen, though : )

In my case, I just used the "headline" trailing four quarter EPS number [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:42 AM

Re: 50% returns

PS: I get Jim's point about S&P 500 (on the whole) getting multiple expansion and not going up in value as much
as Berkshire as a company; but I am not sure I agree with that in regards to Berkshire's portfolio.

Positions
[more]

Tue Apr 17

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:58 PM

Re: 50% returns

Berkshire book value hasn't kept up with the S&P for years. Also, overall, pointing to the Berkshire
stock price is a complete red herring. Buffett does not control that. He does control the book value.


I trust you see [more]

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