mungofitch’s Activity

Today

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2 hours ago

Re: Help! Selling Covered Calls At Market Highs

But then how do you take profit? Or what do you do after option exercise?
I know you are not, but it doesn't work as nicely if you were within the U.S. tax jurisdiction.


Usually I have a call for two years.
I roll half [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:44 AM

Re: Who Cares? For $500 Alex

I'm just surprised that there haven't been any Tesla blockchain announcements.

Deserves a rec just for that : )

Jim

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:43 AM

Re: Help! Selling Covered Calls At Market Highs

I do the opposite thing with BRK and calls. I buy a deep ITM call as far out as possible.
The delta is close to 1, the deepness means it is unlikely that I'll lose all the money.


Me too.
More when the value proposition [more]

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:18 PM

Re: ibm - postmortem

another one-third reduction at prices between $140 and $156. Cost basis was about $170, I believe, so this was an outright loser.

Though the purchase was certainly a loser, in assessing the magnitude it's probably worth [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 PM

Re: Help! Selling Covered Calls At Market Highs

Please feel free to comment on my strategy.

It isn't nonsense, but the premiums are low.
I can't help but feel you'd be better off simply selling a little stock if the valuation level gets really high.

The [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:27 PM

Re: OT: Jim Chanos on Tesla

Just be aware that there are folks on the other side that are betting that Tesla will succeed - and see that as reality.

There are. Go figure.
I think Tesla will succeed in making some great vehicles.
They might succeed as a [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:24 AM

Re: OT: Jim Chanos on Tesla

"Put it this way," Chanos said. "If you wouldn't be short a multi-billion-dollar loss-making enterprise
in a cyclical business, with a leveraged balance sheet, questionable accounting, every executive leaving,
run by a
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:07 AM

Re: Help! Selling Covered Calls At Market Highs

I won't start that here, other than to comment that covered calls are not a particularly good strategy.
For a pittance, you give all but a little bit of the upside, and keep all of the downside.


I think of it a bit [more]

Fri Nov 17

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:56 PM

Re: Valuations: a counterpoint

Very interesting and directly on point, he already did a study that I was thinking about doing.
"One-year Forward Returns based on [high] P/E Level"
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:13 PM

Re: Insufficient Fear

Both are bad signs. Monopoly power among large firms is a recipe for longer term stagnation, and
overly high profits across the economy as a share of GDP could lead to societal fracturing.
...
I agree. Can you envision a few small
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:07 AM

Re: Valuations: a counterpoint

No one who uses/follows those charts looks at the mean as the point to get worried.
It's like a rubber band that has its most pronounced effect when it has been greatly stretched. Like today.


Predictive models of future [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:53 AM

Re: Valuations: a counterpoint

Predictions. Ugh. People that read me know that I treat all predictions as garbage.
But.
Here is an highly regarded commentator who is saying that the current high valuations are arguably
high not because of irrationally, but because
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:44 AM

Re: Insufficient Fear

Bubbles give care little about valuations...

Makes sense.
I guess that's why they always pop.

(Rather a useless observation, I admit, because unless it eventually pops there is no guaranteed consensus that any given [more]

Wed Nov 15

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:27 PM

Re: ot: favorite metrics

Why isn't it Big Uncle?

Actually, it's because I never thought of that. Makes good sense, really.
Especially since we have no kids and dedicate our existence to spoiling nieces and nephews, real and [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 4:21 PM

Re: Q3 earnings

You probably even have a metric already set up, for when assets should go BIP->BAM and when they should BAM->BIP. If not, could you make one, please?

Ha ha. Very funny.

I generally avoid BIP and its ilk because I take a [more]

Tue Nov 14

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:37 PM

Re: How to invest when you have enough in retire

What's the difference between *putting* a large chunk into SPY and *having* a large chunk in SPY?

None. They're synonymous in this context. In my opinion, owning any material amount of SPY is insane right now.
Unless, as I [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:30 PM

Re: How to invest when you have enough in retire

These are saying the same thing, just with different words.

No, read carefully.
"follow the rule starting any old time, no matter what the valuation level is at the time you apply the rule"
"follow the rule [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:59 AM

Re: ot: favorite metrics

I always enjoyed reading the Auntie Times and have successfully invested in a few of Big Daddy's tips. I hope there are more to follow. Thanks for all you share.

Some bad tips in there, for sure.

Incidentally, I note [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 AM

Re: How to invest when you have enough in retire

So, what have you accomplished, really? You have a year or 2 or 3 where you are ramping up to 100%,
and then the remaining 30 or so years you are at 100%. Looking at the entire period, you are 100%
invested except for a short fraction of
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:42 AM

Re: How to invest when you have enough in retire

Certainly waiting for the next buy signal would not be a good strategy in general, since in general you might be at any point in the market cycle. It could be a very long wait.
But waiting for the next buy signal to allocate cash when starting
[more]

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