mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:25 PM

Re: Poll: robust screens

In any series, finding A>>B>>C>>D>>E>>F>>G suggests that magnitude is a strong function of position in the list.
...
Bullet screens are anything but predictive.


Sorry, I don't see those two [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:21 PM

Hmmm...all time high today?

Depends.

B shares, yes.
A shares, not quite.
Closed right on the line.

(depending on data source, no doubt)

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:44 PM

Re: Highs and lows

Jim, have you considered waiting to turn bearish with the Bear Catcher New High-New
Low whenever the Nasdaq posts a gain on the day of the new bearish signal?
It might prevent a short-term whipsaw.


If there's a thing to [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:41 PM

Re: Highs and lows

There was a pretty big reversal after you posted this. Is the model still bearish?

Yup, it gave its sell signal.

It takes a pretty darned major reversal to switch the highs/lows around after a few hours of markets being [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:29 PM

Re: brkb is $125 again...?

Mr. Market to pay more today that he did in the recent past?

Reasons are for weenies.

I wouldn't mind it a bit, if the shares traded as if Mr. Market were in a mania for a while.

Yup, I'm with you.
I know [more]

Tue Apr 15

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:54 PM

Re: 5 ticket punch card, bis

Irrespective of the asset mix, a low debt-to-equity indicates strength.

Well...maybe. But I'd say not necessarily.
If the equity is all tied up in something unsellable, a company can still hit
a financing crunch, which can [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:38 PM

Re: Todd and Ted

"Essentially my job will be split into two parts. One executive will
become CEO and resposible for operations. The responsibility for
investments will be given to one or more executives.


I guess that then depends on [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:30 PM

Re: Todd and Ted

These two versions sound very similar, except that in Jim's version, the COO makes
the call about how much money goes into the public equity pool (T&T's playground)
[emphasis mine]

FWIW, I don't see them as limited to [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:26 PM

Re: Highs and lows

Looks like my best NH-NL model is now bearish (close Apr 15), first time since a brief stretch in Nov 2012.
Unless there is a gigantic rally before the end of the day.

Frankly it hasn't added value the last 4 years, missing out on [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:59 AM

Re: Poll: robust screens

A shallow screen is more susceptible to the vagaries of data mining and thus, more likely than not, to be over-tuned. IMO

FWIW, that's what I believed too till I started testing it.
No longer.
Doing the entire study for every [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:51 AM

Re: high risk high cagr zacks screen

Do we have the right final sort? The bullet shows a CAGR of 0.4%.

The reported CAGR of a bullet screen is pretty meaningless, even in GTR1.
If one stock was really bad or really good on even one day it throws off the entire [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:37 AM

Re: high risk high cagr zacks screen

It does seem to rely heavily on pretty small stuff.

PS,
this is the URL I used to test that

[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:52 AM

Re: high risk high cagr zacks screen

1999 forward
zacks rank=1 or 2
ebitda to ev top 50%
3 month beta < 1
price bottom 5
cagr 47.1...


It does seem to rely heavily on pretty small stuff.

That 47% CAGR drops to
32% requiring $100k/day [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:29 AM

Re: 5 ticket punch card, bis

So, which one of these would you give up in favor of ratio of long term debt to net earnings?
P/E, ROE, or revenue growth per share?


I'd give up the revenue growth.
Better to have something good and cheap and not growing than [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:55 AM

Re: Todd and Ted

With no one in charge of overall capital allocation it sounds like the
decision of whether any excess cash flow would go to the T&T portfolio
instead of "re-investment" in operating subs would be up to the COO and not
[more]

Mon Apr 14

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:03 PM

Re: 5 ticket punch card, bis

Revenue growth

...per share.
You don't want to encourage poor M&A.

I'd have gone with book/share growth rather than revenue, but revenue is probably good too if the ROE is holding up.
I'd need some kind of [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:12 PM

Re: ntiof

Bank of Canada was on a screen a couple of weeks ago. No activity today?
Anyone know why?


I presume you mean National Bank of Canada (just another bank), not Bank of Canada (the central bank).
Most of its volume is on the [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:09 PM

Re: Highs and lows

What do you use for hedging?

I have a big long-term short S&P hedge done with short futures.
This costs essentially nothing when the market is flat, no matter how
long I hold the position, and reacts linearly to the index [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:40 PM

Re: 5 ticket punch card.

Do I have to use all 5 punches?

I tried this a while ago, e.g. in November 2008.
http://boards.fool.com/is-the-us-market-undervalued-27212249...

[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:07 PM

Highs and lows

Keeping an eye on things on the NH-NL front.
Intraday more lows than highs so far today, and assuming that doesn't
change prior to close that will push one of my simpler models bearish tonight.
"Be bullish if there were at least [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 75540
Score 0.00
Score Change Today 0
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 0
Total Picks 0
Best Pick ( 0)
Worst Pick ( 0)
Average Score per Pick 0.00
Charms Earned 1
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to mungofitch’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool
Board Posts 15163
Recs Received 96885
People who have rec'd these posts 2226
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 33.20
Threads Started 1444
Threads Started Percentage 9.52 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 84.02 %
Show mungofitch’s 10 Latest Posts