mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:41 PM

Re: NH/NL

If you change to a 45 day rule, you have to decide whether you're changing one or both parameters.
I'd suggest changing the "how many days", but not the "trailing N day high" one.
Actually 6 months is quite good for the
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:09 PM

Re: FKA: Sberbank

Current price: $7.54 versus 52 week high around $13.27 last October.

Looks like that post was at the time of the absolute lowest tick. So far!
$8.69 now.
In fact Yahoo's 52 week low reports $7.57 as lowest point for the pink [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:25 PM

OT: Well, that's a relief!

"Bull market will charge higher for 15 more years says strategist
Forget the naysayers! This bull market has another 15 years left in it. At least that’s what Brian Belski, chief market strategist at BMO Capital
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:11 PM

Re: NH/NL

DBE - 45 is Dying Buying Euphoria (99 day rule modified to 45 day)

The only thing to watch out for is that the "99 day rule" actually has two parameters, both coincidentally set to 99.

How many days has it been [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:39 PM

Re: Berkshire's float

would have been a pretty good deal: a 2% annual dividend in the last 15 years is little consolation for the zero gain in share value.

You know, I never actually looked up the numbers about how bad that bubble-and-squeak was.
(I [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 PM

Re: BRK-A $300,000 in 3 years

And I absolutely do not believe the official inflation rate. For me, it is much closer to 10%
...
Can you explain why you think the current inflation rate is close to 10%?
I understand your belief that the rate of inflation will go
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:37 PM

Re: OT: Wells Fargo

In your opinion, how do the two compare as long term investments? Do you expect Wells Fargo to perform better than Berkshire?

Yes, probably. (barring the modest concerns over leverage and return in incrementally invested [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:26 PM

Re: Accumulators

I have no idea whether it's predictive—or of any use even if it is—but I pass this along for your amusement.

Since the buyback threshold was introduced about 2.9 years ago, first at 1.1 then at 1.2 times book/share,
the price has pretty [more]

Mon Aug 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:57 PM

Re: OT: Wells Fargo

I’m curious as to how you arrive at cyclically adjusted earnings of $4.00.
The usual definition of cyclically adjusted earnings is defined as price divided by
the average of ten years of earnings (Moving average), adjusted for
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:18 PM

Re: OT geopolitcal risk

I did an exercise once of looking up all the really worst news events in history and seeing what happened to the market.
Some on my own, some reading other studies.

In general, if the market was already sliding, it just kept [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:11 PM

Re: NH/NL

What is the definition of whipsaw?

Gosh, we could have a competition.
How about "Any time that you decided to use a timing signal and it was wrong".

More seriously, I guess the usual meaning is a buy followed by [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:05 PM

Re: S&P puts

So....in order to protect this barely adequate portfolio you have to give up _half_
of your portfolio income (withdrawal) for the first 5 years (2% premium and 4% withdrawal).


Well, as a sense of scale, that's true.

But [more]

Sun Aug 17

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:34 PM

Re: S&P puts

1) You are protecting against *volatility*, not permanent loss.

Not really.
There are some very serious academic studies on this subject.
In effect, you're buying insurance against the tail risk of running out of money, [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:15 AM

Re: How Rich We Could Have Been

Nonesense, If you had bought in earlier years as I did you would have
driven the price up with the result that your table is wishful
thinking, But the board is a good place to let off steam.
If you are so smart why don't you predict
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:58 AM

Re: OT: Wells Fargo

What about WFC? You have said that WFC has a cyclically adjusted earnings power of $4.
So it’s worth 4 eps * 15 multiple = 60. This is 20% below the current price of 50 (12.5 times cyclically adjusted earnings power).
Starting from
[more]

Sat Aug 16

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:33 PM

Re: Come on, guys: 202k, 203k, ...

The price has come up, but the valuation multiple less so.
...
Nobody forces you to buy merely because the price is right.
By the same logic nobody can keep you from selling just because the price is wrong.


No, by the [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:12 AM

Re: Come on, guys: 202k, 203k, ...

Congratulations to everyone on this board who needed a chance to do a little selling recently, for cashola, or for rebalancing or for whatever reason.

Hmmm, I don't think 1.4 times book really manages that goal.
The price has [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:00 AM

Re: ot: Bull market on last legs

I do think my long cycle valuation work is some of the best out there.
...
What do you consider long cycle?


I seek to answer the question "what will the annual rate of return be
for the broad market between now and [more]

Fri Aug 15

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:26 PM

Re: ot: Bull market on last legs

I honestly don't know, is it really true?
Sure he nailed the bottom a few yrs back but what is the true batting percentage?


I don't think my calls are that great.
I certainly wouldn't advise acting on what is seen in my [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:25 PM

Re: Come on, guys: 202k, 203k, ...

so combine the two figures, and you get a drop from 1.51 to 1.2*0.88=1.056, so that would be a drop of 30%.

Yup. Makes sense.
That's how I came up with my comment "It could hit the $150k's"

Jim

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