mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:32 PM

Re: ibm beats...but not impressive!?

IBM's earnings have NOT stayed flat, they have gone down; only EPS has gone up, and that is because of the repurchases.

That's the popular narrative, but it's not really right.
EPS has risen in the last decade more because the [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:23 PM

Re: CBI First Quarter

They have always been able to identify and serve a market, Jim...

I note they were founded the same year the Eiffel tower was built, in 1889.
Too bad they weren't able to bid on that, it would have been a great fit.

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:19 PM

Re: CBI First Quarter

I'm just curious where you would rank this as a business, separate from the stock price:
1) excellent business, with a good moat and expected consistent high returns on invested capital, with likely attractive long-term growth,
2) a
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:42 AM

Re: CBI First Quarter

I have bought quite a bit of CBI over the last year...

Me too.
Sadly I bought a bit early, thinking it was already cheap when it got under $64.
On the other hand, I still hold that opinion.

I just think about the [more]

Thu Apr 23

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:41 AM

Re: ibm beats...but not impressive!?

I am less optimistic on IBM than Buffett...

Well, at least I can say one nice thing about Big Blue.

Total return since average price in January
Berkshire -3.51%
IBM +9.69%

Nice little blip today perhaps [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:31 AM

Re: Titles and Topics

No problem, it was worth it.
You gotta love a post whose title and topic are "Titles and Topics".

This thread—indeed, this very sentence—shows that self-referentialism is going strong.

Jim

Wed Apr 22

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:34 PM

Re: OT: IB math errors?

I assume they're computing to fractions of cents, but only reporting whole cents. Not a case of less attention being paid, but more.

That's my theory.
As the saying often goes, "amounts may not sum to total due to [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:26 PM

Re: ibm beats...but not impressive!?

Actually, my first job was as a computer programmer with Air Canada, who had a Burroughs mainframe...

I started off as a Xerox man, myself. Sigma 9.


"Well, I rise up every morning at a quarter to eight
Some
[more]

Tue Apr 21

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:53 PM

Re: Hedging - PSQ or shorting QQQ?

it'd be more effective to short QQQ than buy PSQ.

That's my expectation.
Things like PSQ generally exist for the benefit of those who have accounts
which are prohibited from shorting. The fund sponsors charge for their kind [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:21 PM

Re: It's actually a reasonable question

How do you know that you know what you know?
Seriously. How do you know the counterparty risk if you don't proactively require such things to be reported?


Well, in general I understand Berkshire's business reasonably [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:08 AM

Re: ibm beats...but not impressive!?

The "beating EPS" comment and graph is certainly valid.
That's the game that a lot of "investors" and commissioned stockbrokers like to play, it seems.

The "they are dying because of the X quarters of falling top [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:18 AM

Re: It's actually a reasonable question

Another interesting question is why regulators want to designate certain firms as too big to fail.

There are two main categories of reasons:

- The firm is one of many that, should they fail in a widespread meltdown
of the [more]

Mon Apr 20

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:34 AM

Re: Backtesting options

Would also need a clean source of stock split and dividend data, from them or elsewhere.

That might not be *quite* as much of a problem as it first seems.
Each of their records includes the closing price on the [more]

Sun Apr 19

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:14 PM

Re: 20 yr BRK.A VS EWS&P500

Come on Jim! You're better than that!

As are you ; )

You really think that a specific single date to single date price return interval proves that Berkshire isn't worth the bother?
That's pretty much what you said, and [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:28 PM

Re: 20 yr BRK.A VS EWS&P500

2 decades is too long a period to be wed to any ideology that doesn't beat an appropriate index.

Well, it only fails to the index with the specific start and end dates you picked.
Valuation matters.
Berkshire was in a bubble [more]

Sat Apr 18

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:27 PM

Re: 20 yr BRK.A VS EWS&P500

That's a lot of math to justify holding a market performer. Rather index.
...
I simply will not ever allow my ego to get me into such a situation.



I think you just did.

If you have the supreme self [more]

Fri Apr 17

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:21 PM

Re: Folks needing dividends...

Without getting too much into the inflation argument, maybe (yes, vainly linking to myself) this might calm some nerves. Or not.
[more]

Tue Apr 14

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:25 PM

Re: Why BRK?

5 year return for S&Phas beaten BRK BV growth...

Given Berkshire's substantially and consistently higher rate of value growth,
this is yet another outstanding indicator that the S&P is highly overvalued these days. [more]

Mon Apr 13

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:17 PM

Why BRK?

Somebody over on the MI board wondered why all the fuss about Mr Buffett,
since Berkshire's performance relative to market has been pretty ho-hum for a very long time.
I thought some here might like to see my responses.

[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:18 AM

Re: 20 yr BRK.A VS EWS&P500

The risk is his death; what are the odds the people he has trained/watched for years will duplicate the same results.
Maybe Leucadia or other Warren-watcher will be better.


I track only the value of what's there, not the added [more]

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