mungofitch’s Activity

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 14 minutes ago

Re: OT: Hershey??

Yes, it's possible. Cheap capital causing businesses to do funny things.

Financially, sure.
But Hershey's governance is in effect designed to prevent this. I had always assumed that was working.

I guess the [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 15 minutes ago

Re: OT: bad luck 2, good luck 1

A foregone opportunity for a big gain is not all all the same as a big loss.
...
Really? That's clearly not the kool-aid talking.


I would suggest that someone who doesn't appreciate the huge gulf between
the two [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 48 minutes ago

Re: OT: bad luck 2, good luck 1

But the idea that IBM is a successful mistake is a myth I just cannot subscribe to.

I dunno. Everybody makes mistakes. What would a successful mistake look like?
I currently expect that Mr Buffett's record of never realizing [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2 hours ago

OT: Hershey??

Is that even possible?

Hershey stock soars after report of Mondelez takeover bid
...
up 18 percent at $114.63.

[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2 hours ago

Re: OT: bad luck 2, good luck 1

Good post, but this is a little too deferential to ole BRK, don't you think? Lots of things meet that standard.

Obviously there are things that would have offered this benefit and ALSO presumably appreciated in value a lot more [more]

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 9:56 PM

Re: BAM or WFC for next 13 years?

FWIW, currently BAM is roughly 7% and WFC 3.5% in my world.

FWIW my allocations for those two are both a bit bigger, and reversed.
Again, that doesn't mean I'm right.
I lightened up on WFC a while back when it was up [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:56 PM

OT: bad luck 2, good luck 1

Sometimes it's good to be lucky. Even a little good luck is nice after a lot of bad luck.

I closed about 12% of my IBM position last Thursday while the Brits were still voting and everybody was still happy.
(breakeven on the sales [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 9:18 PM

Re: BAM or WFC for next 13 years?

Having said that, Jim would you mind elaborating this if you have a spare moment and can indulge: "but WFC the higher near-worst-case return."

I said only that it's possible. This isn't necessarily something I [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:01 PM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

Why is 2008 repeated?

Because it was so much fun, of course.

Jim

(quirk of the Excel graph, I used a 365 day horizontal scale instead of one year horizontal scale, sorry)

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:01 PM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

For fun, here's a graph of real S&P 500 earnings and my estimates of the trend.
stonewellfunds.com/TrendE_2016-06.jpg
All the figures are expressed in today's dollars with [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:14 PM

Re: Overvalued?

Five years ago on July 1st 2011 BRK.B was selling for $60.86. Since then earnings and book value have grown at about 11% per year. If the price had grown at the same rate it would now be selling at $170.

Ten Years ago on July 1st 2006
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 4:00 PM

Re: BAM or WFC for next 13 years?

How about between BIP and BAM?

BIP only if you want a current dividend for some reason. BAM otherwise.
(each dollar of dividend from almost any firm reduces the long run stock price returns by more than a dollar at the [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 3:35 PM

Re: BAM or WFC for next 13 years?

It's possible that BAM will have the higher central expected return but WFC the higher near-worst-case return.
(other things are possible, too)

There's always half and half.
Minimize maximum regret.
Either way, in the end [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 12:15 PM

Re: Chase Tower sold for $31M, BAM paid >$48M in

Chase Tower sold for $31M, BAM paid >$48M in 2007

The situation may be a bit more complex.
The building was bought as part of a 5.3m square foot bundle of 33 buildings purchased in 2006 from JPM and leased back to [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 10:53 AM

Re: Santander, Credit, and Spies

A story, iceberg-like, with seven-eighths under water....

Well, it is the New York Times.
Russia=bad this year. (not that I'm arguing, simply pointing out the current narrative).
You don't have to be a 100% tinfoil-hat [more]

Tue Jun 28

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:41 PM

Re: what the brexit will mean

Please talk me out of buying:
LYB
WU
IBM
VIA/VIAB
BEN


OK.
Don't buy WU, IBM, VIA/VIAB.
BEN, hmmm. I won't comment.
LYB, now, that might be a different story...

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 6:25 PM

Re: BBU

How long can one hold BBU before it becomes a tax issue? I mean, in terms of the crazy paperwork that follows these BAM spinoffs.

I guess it will eventually find its own level, as there are people like
me and institutional [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:18 PM

Re: what the brexit will mean

Presumably, the refugee family are still living in tent, in a camp, in unsanitary conditions
because the attic apartment, with a new kitchen and running water, doesn’t have an external fire escape.


Well, sure. But the rules are [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 4:07 PM

Re: BBU

I meant in an IRA or not..

Well, if you're going to do a long hold, BAM presumably suits a taxable account.

If you're going to attempt a one-time bounce gain on BBU then switch to BAM some day
that the price [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:36 PM

Re: SAN

Last year's earnings were 44 euro cents, and today's close of €3.36 is 7.63 times that number.

PS
In the US, SAN is trading up 4% at at $3.84 right now.
The January 2017 $3.50 puts are still bid 40 cents (US).
That [more]

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