mungofitch’s Activity

Tue Oct 28

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:21 PM

Re: Berkshire's annual return since 2006

Jim, if you're reading this and feel like sharing a bit more detail on your strategy with the DITM calls on Berkshire, I'd be very grateful.

Well, that's a matter of "do as I say, not as I do".
What I say is that [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:36 AM

OT: IBM trading

Not only the wrong stock, but the wrong approach to stocks. Talk about "off topic".

However...
I note that IBM's stock price has been as flat as a pancake in the last 5-6 days, and getting flatter.
This is only clear if you [more]

Sun Oct 26

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 10:43 AM

Re: FKA : IBM

Instead of R&D spending or cap-ex spending, IBM Is buying companies to keep the revenue.
There core business is not growing, losing revenue, buying revenue is also not helping for the last 9 quarters.


They have a different [more]

Fri Oct 24

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:13 PM

Re: Forget equal weighting, EM is where it's at

No offense intended.

You gotta really work to manage that!
I just didn't want anyone to think I advocate dart boarding, despite my belief that it makes much more sense than owning SPY.

Dartboarding with a bit of a value [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:09 PM

Re: OT 10 year returns

Is this a reasonable timeframe in which to asses the effectiveness (or otherwise) of an active manager?
...
Might the past 10 years be used as a rough guide as to what to expect for the next 10?


I'd say "yes", and [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:21 AM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

I'm getting a CAGR for SPY of 9.0% since it's inception (on 20-Jan-1993). The CAGR for IEP over that same period is 13.4%.

I get about the same figures.
FWIW, Berkshire, who he recently mocked, managed 13.98%/year in the same [more]

Thu Oct 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:47 PM

Re: Forget equal weighting, EM is where it's at

Though they agree with a Part-of-Mungo and with Malkiel's monkey that complex valuation strategies are not needed.

Just for the record, I'm a believer in very sophisticated valuation strategies.
The point I was trying to make [more]

Wed Oct 22

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:45 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Instead of looking at EPS numbers just look at the operating metrics of the
business segment, are they showing improvement in gross and net margins?


Umm, yes.
Revenues are the same as ten years ago, 2014 versus 2004, within [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:42 AM

Re: Daughter's brokerage acct, advice?

For an investor looking to buy RSP rather than SPY, does the CAPE ratio
or the Real On Trend E10 you have mentioned in previous posts need to
be adjusted in any way? When I download the quarterly earnings for the
index from the
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:40 AM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Notice that I did NOT mention growing earnings. IBM did a great job until today growing earnings. The only problem was that the top line aka sales were going down NINE quarters in a row. It is pretty clear that you cannot continue to grow earnings [more]

Tue Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:32 PM

Re: OT: IBM..."It’s a terrible mista

McDonalds doesn't grow vegetables, doesn't raise chicken, doesn't run the shops, so why is there a need to own the computer HW?

I think the answer is pretty obvious. They don't have to.
Outsourcing the computing to a third party [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:02 PM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

In this king of investing it's potentially quite a big difference.

Freudian typo?
I meant "kind of investing".

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 PM

Re: OT: SP 500

Seeks to replicate as closely as possible the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, before fees and expenses, on a daily basis...

Real total return of the S&P 500 and its predecessors 1930-01-02 through 2014-10-06: [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:41 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Maybe, just maybe, NOW is the time to be greedy when others are fearful?

Maybe.

A friend of mine, with whom I trade investment ideas, sent me an email message today suggesting I should sell.
I have no idea whether it [more]

Mon Oct 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:37 PM

Re: Icahn mechanical strategy

Icahn has returned 27% annualized over a 52-year period.

My understanding is that this is the IRR he claims, not the CAGR.

In this king of investing it's potentially quite a big difference.
Every time he invests in [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:02 PM

Re: OT: IBM..."It’s a terrible mista

After COP, IBM is the second biggest mistake of Buffett in dollar amount.
IBM is having issues on two fronts
- Competition is relentless
- Execution is poor
Additionally, they are siphoning money out to repurchase shares while
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:43 PM

Re: OT: SP 500

Best (arguably) RSP.

Not the lowest charge, though. For that it's probably Vanguard.


This is the correct answer.

Despite the very slightly higher fee RSP is likely to outperform a lower
fee capitalization [more]

Sun Oct 19

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:20 PM

Re: Maybe you should care what "they" say.

I showed your choice would have lost capital in the last five years after inflation, and ought to expect that to continue.
Plus a giant one time loss if interest rates return even part way towards normal.

You present a week's performance [more]

Sat Oct 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:06 PM

Re: Ted and Todd - Results

Thirty years ago and back when Buffett made his comment that 6.5% or
whatever he said was "normal", foreign profits accounted for less than
15% of S&P 500 profits. Today foreign derived profits account for almost
half
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:36 AM

Re: OT: Business Development Companies

Remember the saying about reaching for yield.

I don't care what they say. Yield is better than trying to get water out of a stone or a dividend from Warren Buffet.
For cash lying around I like the Vanguard GNMA fund. Very
[more]

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