mungofitch’s Activity

Today

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 47 minutes ago

Re: Price vs Book-Value Changes

CAGR over the past 14 years....
CAGR for price: 9.1%.
CAGR for book value: 9.6%
...


Is there not a possibility that you're using a bad metric of value (price)
to corroborate another poor metric of value (book value per [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1 hour ago

Re: Buffett's Two Columns

Wouldn't it be equally naive to look only at one side of the balance sheet,
ignoring liabilities? But isn't this what Buffett is doing here?


First, I think it's important to note that Mr Buffett presents these
as factors [more]

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 PM

Re: S & P Capital IQ

Let's assume book value increases 5% in the next twelve months to $102.30
that still puts the price target around 1.7x book value. Pretty steep.


Well, 5% book growth in a year is probably not a reach, barring a market [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 PM

Re: Book Value

It's equally dumb to suggest it'll never drop as low as 1.25 again.
It's entirely capable of dropping to 1.25 again...


For whatever it's worth, since a buyback threshold was first announced
the median market price has been [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:08 PM

Re: Charlie as Spock, Warren as the Captain

You can't stop there.

Tracy as Uhura?
Ajit as McCoy? ("Dammit, Warren, I'm an underwriter, not a CEO!")

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:11 AM

Re: Rate of change of value

1) The cash drag is more than 20% of float. Even a few years ago when float was only 60ish, Buffett was talking about keeping $20B on reserve.
I'd be shocked if that number isn't adjusted upward soon due to grown in float.


No [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:00 AM

Re: Rate of change of value

More importantly, cold hard numbers show that for the past 8 and 14 year periods, neither book value nor price have managed even 10% growth

Perhaps they haven't, but I think you might be wrong about "most [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:04 AM

Rate of change of value

One of the valuation methods I use is to take the sum of:
+ Investments per share
+ A multiple of pretax income per share on everything other than investments per share
- A deduction of a percentage of float for the perpetual drag caused [more]

Mon Mar 2

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:22 AM

Re: Long term holders of BRK

All this talk of the 50th Anniversary has me thinking about holding periods, in general.
I bought my first shares, B shares, in the spring of 1997...


Speaking of that general era, I was just looking at Berkshire's annualized rate [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:07 AM

Re: Wow, WEB ripped David Winters on CNBC

Here is the video of the David Winters ripping, near the end of clip.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000358348


Thanks!
Ouch. "All glass [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:12 AM

Re: Wow, WEB ripped David Winters on CNBC

Maybe a bit more detail...

...what was justified?
...why?
...what are you talking about?


Ditto

Mr Buffett is dissing a choreographer??

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:11 AM

Re: Most Successful Company in the World

Large holdings like KO and WAG pay substantial dividends so need to dip into the capital. Quite sensible.

It makes absolutely no difference whether the trust gets their current money from dividends or from periodic sales of [more]

Sat Feb 28

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:09 AM

Re: Encore

Before we all dig into this year's shareholder letter, and the sure-to-be-historic
additional commentary by Munger and Buffett regarding the past and future 50 years...


Ignoring the chatterocracy is definitely a good thing.
I [more]

Fri Feb 27

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:58 PM

Re: OT: BBRY / talk me off the ledge

If you can imagine a passably plausible scenario involving a firm not
being around in a decade, don't put more tan 1% of your money into it.

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:17 AM

Re: Equal weighting VS Mcap weighting

The question is, now that people know that equal weight works better, will it still work. That is a question about all fundamental indexing...

I think the answer pops out of phrasing the question in a way more consistent with the [more]

Wed Feb 25

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:34 PM

Re: Calling anyone who wants commission free tra

Its on their web site. Its their headline feature.

Today Fool.com's lead on the home page

Just Leave it Alone
A look at industry returns over the past fifty years shows the power
[more]

Tue Feb 24

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:18 PM

Re: BRK-B, psychological test or fundamental?

I suspect it's neither psychological nor technical, just random variation.

If you look at a graph of the ratio of share price to share value through
the years you can see how wild and unpredictable such swings are.
That's true of [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:02 AM

Re: More $$ Headed To Omaha

So you are right, Jim. KO was a superior investment if one bought it on Jan 1, 1989
and held on to it for the last 26 years (by approx 2% annual, pre-tax).


FWIW, the difference has been 2.69%/year.
Assumes reinvestment of [more]

Mon Feb 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:10 PM

Re: Why Deere?

Just curious. Wouldn't Long-term Debt to some cash flow measure (say, WEBs: Net Inc + Depr - Avg Capex) be a better measure than acct'g earnings?

If you use the right measure, sure.
In this case it might be something like [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:26 PM

Re: Why I love the market

Three companies account for 80% of my portfolio.
...
Is that hedged? Does that include the options/futures part of your port?


I have a lot of general purpose hedging. I didn't count that when counting the [more]

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