mungofitch’s Activity

Today

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 1 hour ago

Re: AMZN

And yet, at current revenues, a very small nudge of the profit needle would produce
very substantial returns, far more so than before they did all this growth. So, why does do they have to change "in a big way"?


Fair [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3 hours ago

Re: AMZN

Either something has to change in a big way (which of course it will, I just don't know how), or they're worth under $10 a share.
...
This is the worst pathetic analysis. Seriously?! IBM paid $2B...


You have taken my [more]

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:34 PM

Re: AMZN

** What is also unique is that AMZN was earnings very healthy ROEs in 2006 and 2007 (about 40%).
Unlike most American companies, they've greatly accelerated investments going into and coming out of the Great Recession.



A [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:25 PM

Re: MI, friction, and a growing portfolio

I avoid market moving sized positions by requiring a minimum average # of shares traded and average dollar volume.
Any stock below the thresholds is eliminated from consideration.


FWIW
Back when I was fully automated my [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:17 PM

Re: MI, friction, and a growing portfolio

I use folio and basically don't worry bout friction. ...

I wouldn't derive much comfort from that line of reasoning.
Commissions are not the largest part of friction.

A thinly traded stock even with an apparently nice [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:10 PM

Re: A study on the Bear-Catchers v2

A great undertaking.

Suggestions for a possible next round, if you think you might do one.

- The statistics can't be compared directly among screens since the backtest start dates vary.
For example the ones that start in 1986 [more]

Fri Jul 25

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:20 PM

Re: OT: Cities by millionaire density

I also remember reading some survey results which said that people felt rich only
after their net worth crossed the 7 million mark. Anything less, they felt well-off but not rich.


My observation is that there are only a few key [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:41 PM

Re: AMZN

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and in my view the
supporting evidence for extraordinary profitability is severely lacking.


I tend to agree. Very strongly so, in fact.
But I was bending over backwards to [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 3:41 PM

Re: AMZN

Perhaps earnings really do matter...

Or not. I guess it depends on what your goals are, and when.
I really like this view.

Roughly a year ago, after Amazon came out with its 2012 earnings report,
Slate columnist
[more]

Thu Jul 24

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:51 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

You might not see it but it's all there! It's all there as digested by the market participants at the time, at each point in time.
What the graph shows is the price the market will bear, the price at which you could have bought or sold.
[more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:10 PM

Re: Poll: Size of porfolio sans inheirtance

Hard work is good, and being smart is presumably helpful.
Inheritance and marrying well can work as well, I'm told.
But I'll take "lucky" every time given the choice.

Jim

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:45 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

Someone asked that I post the same graph with dates shown.
stonewellfunds.com/SnP_BMW2.jpg

This is a graph of the real S&P, overlaid with
- For each date, the end point of a [more]

Wed Jul 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:45 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

A picture is worth 1000 words
http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats40/^GSPC.html


Not always.
Actually I don't think that picture is worth any words at all. It's [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:57 PM

Re: OT: Cities by millionaire density

I think the list does not say much.
In many countries, well-off people tend to live outside, but near the cities.


I tend to agree it doesn't say a whole lot.
I suspect the result is similar to "find a whole bunch of [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:20 PM

Re: BRK-Liberty Mutual Deal

When BRK does a non-insurance acquisition or market investment, there is usually no immediate impact on either the 2-column metric or book value.
These big retro insurance deals do usually impact Float and thus column 1 as seen
[more]

Mon Jul 21

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:00 PM

Re: IBM earnings out

I'm also bemused on the reasoning that the cash was otherwise needed, thereby "forcing" the sale of COP.
Perhaps there was something in the works then that we will never know about, but to my
recollection there was never a time
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:27 PM

Re: Beware All SI Pro TTM Fields

As for Value Line, I have no idea how they came up with 4.81 for TTM EPS. ...

Well, recall that Value Line excludes extraordinary gains or losses.
They then mention these excluded things in the footnotes on the PDF [more]

Sun Jul 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:36 PM

Re: Beware All SI Pro TTM Fields

FWIW, an interesting stock for a test case is Goldman Sachs.
They were forced to change their year end from Nov 30 to Dec 31 when they registered as a bank during the crunch.
This left them with a one-month reporting period that was not in [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:24 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

Is the market overvalued?

It's likely a key issue is what exactly you mean by "overvalued".

One possible definition could be approached like this.
Long run typical real total return from US stocks has been about [more]

Fri Jul 18

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:10 PM

Re: OT: so you wanted a dividend...

Who will remember a year from now that I said today that I expect a major breakout in oil prices?
...
Do you? Is it "peak oil" season already?


Nothing so deeply philosophical.
My reasoning is more of the [more]

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