mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 7:42 PM

Re: LUK

I'm betting on the former.

Me too.
Unfortunately I made that bet bigger when the price was rather higher than today's, but that's life.
It's my #6 position.

I do hope they have a pleasant surprise for us one of these [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:40 PM

Re: MKL

Here is a handy chart of the ratio of the two stock prices.
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:34 PM

Re: 2.5 column value

PS

Just in case anybody wonders what I do to make these adjustments,
here is the example math for end 2014 statements.
If you dig up the annual report and follow along, you can figure out how to do it yourself, if you like the [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:50 PM

Re: Sort of OT: fun with options

Would you say that it makes more sense to wait for the 2018 contracts to
start trading this month before rolling near the money Jan16 strikes?


Makes sense.
It's pretty unlikely IBM is going to soar like an eagle before [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Falling Knives board. 4:47 PM

FKA: Banco Santander

SAN trading in New York at $5.18. (5.20 euros as SAN.MC)

I have been saying relatively nice things about this fine bank for years,
and the price has been falling pretty much the whole time at a rate of 13%/year compounded.
(I've [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 4:35 PM

Re: DLTR

Their main focus is in trying to improve the profit margins of the FDO
stores getting back to prior numbers. Changing merchandise mix is one tool.


Makes sense.
People don't buy at one dollar store versus another because of [more]

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:40 PM

Sort of OT: fun with options

As many people know, I hold a lot of in-the-money call options on Berkshire.
If this doesn't interest you at all, flip to the next thread!

This isn't quite prudent investing, but it's not pure speculation.
I can't really [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:57 PM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

Buy a put on BRK.B shares. A put with a strike of 70 and expiration in
January 2017 will cost you $1.24 this morning (you can probably get it
for $1 a share if you place a limit order). That insures you against a
drop in the share
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:41 PM

Re: GTR1 for Dummies

Nor do I, but there should be a Download button near the upper right of the Web page.
Clicking that gives you the option of downloading to your (nonexistent) dropbox or "direct download" to your PC.


This is [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:36 PM

Re: GTR1 for Dummies

Tell me if you can get this copy :
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/22299185/GTR1%20for%20Du...


Works like a charm, thanks!
Much [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:09 PM

Re: Wow, $129.50 on the B's and dropping.

But I also very much doubt that the purchasing power of the US dollar
will be the same or higher in about 3 years. It could easily be 1/3 less.


Hmmm, easily? I suspect not.
That's pretty major.
US monetary inflation is [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:21 AM

Re: Backtest will be questionable from now on.

Is this not a good example of why you should enter all your trades by hand,
and not have a process running in the background executing your trades automatically?


I think the biggest lesson is always use a limit. [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:16 AM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

Can I insure Warren Buffett's life up to the amount Berkshire's share price drops upon his death?

I think that legally it would be consistent, and you'd win if challenged on its legality.
(just my opinion, and reading of the [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:07 AM

Re: 2.5 column value

What are your values for each column

As of June 30, using trailing four quarters for adjusted earnings

Investments/share $148,381
Minus 30% of float/share -$15,536
Adjusted pretax earnings/share on things not related [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:54 AM

Re: Wow, $129.50 on the B's and dropping.

As I said, don't fool yourself into thinking this stock is some safe harbor in a storm.

I think it's the best safe harbour in a storm that you could imagine.
But that's the business value, not the stock price : )

Of [more]

Thu Sep 3

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:55 PM

Re: Sell in June and go away

Here's the equal weighted S&P500 since 1957 vs. a seasonal approach for same:

I find quite an improvement form the adaptive systems like Sy Harding's.
i.e., it picks an earliest sell date in the spring, but doesn't actually [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:00 PM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

It's fun playing the games of valuation, secular/cyclical bull/bear market, etc.
But when it comes down to it, the market will do whatever it
does -- and the only thing you have control over is what *you* do.
You play the hand that
[more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:40 PM

Re: Sell in June and go away

Jim- I know this is an old post.
I followed Sy Harding's approach with a portion of my retirement account.
But as you know, he is no longer with us. May he rest in peace.


In fact no, I had not heard about Sy. Nice guy.
I [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:05 PM

Re: GTR1 for Dummies

Wonderful project

Click on the open in the blue banner to open on your computer.
Any problems retrieving this file, contact me by email and I will send you a copy.


There is no blue banner when I go to that [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:55 PM

Re: Serious questions

WEB usually pays 10 times pre tax earnings.

Hmmm, I'd suggest completely discarding that as a rule of thumb. It's dangerously misleading.
It coincidentally fits a few buys, but it doesn't have much sense behind it, and doesn't fit [more]

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