mungofitch’s Activity

Yesterday

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:42 PM

Re: Equity portfolio

Since I had the figures in front of me, I created my own little "aggregate optimism" index, defined as
the product of market cap and the degree to which the earnings yield falls short of 5.88% (=a P/E of 17).


PS, I [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:03 PM

Re: P/B historical context

The reason for requiring 30+ years of data is to ensure that over the course of the regression the stock spent some time being over-valued and some time being undervalued.

That will certainly be a big help.
But R-squared as your [more]

Sat Jul 14

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:57 PM

Equity portfolio

The S&P 500 has a weighted average earnings yield around 5.46%, equating to a "current" P/E of 18.3.
Berkshire's equity portfolio has a weighted average earnings yield of 6.87%, equating to a "current" P/E of [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:25 PM

Re: P/B historical context

I would be interested in hearing more about S&P500 stocks which have high r^2 correlation with
various metrics (earnings, book, revenue, etc) that you described in your 7/13/2018 post.


Note, r-squared isn't a good way to [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:45 PM

Re: P/B historical context

The current valuation is an attractive 1.35X book.

Seems plausible.

FWIW, I estimate Q2 book per share will come in around $217,750. I guess we'll know Aug 4.

Some wild forecasts of likely future prices, from my [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:35 PM

Re: Why Buffett Sold IBM?

He said that the reason he sold was because the firm was ultimately not worth as much as he thought it was/would be.
Kind of obvious as explanations go, and not any kind of excuse, but it does make some sense.

I infer that the gradual [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:58 PM

Re: Why not asset management?

Thanks. I was trying to recall the exchange. I was surprised by his general comments on the idea.

There are some subtleties in the exchange.
Part of it is of the form that we would have been better off (in the past, ending now) in [more]

Fri Jul 13

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:56 PM

Re: P/B historical context

As you point out, though, we're getting close to it now.

We can string several assumptions together to check for plausibility.
If I take my latest adjusted EBT and apply an assumed 20% new tax rate, it indicates EPS of about [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:09 PM

Re: P/B historical context

2009 Bill Gates stated, "There's actually more value now in the fully owned businesses than in the investment portfolio."

I started *feeling* that way around that time, too.
It's not till you crunch the numbers [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 PM

Re: P/B historical context

I would love the opportunity for once to sell some at a price I know if greater than fair value.

True, that's a nice situation.
But it's asking a lot.
We did have two separate spikes over 1.92 in Dec 2007 and Sept [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:02 PM

Re: Trigger points for 99d High

I suppose people reading this thread and looking at the market have already noticed the $SPX just made a new interday high by a couple of points.

FWIW, my personal version of the 99 day is still bearish, waiting for another few [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:54 PM

Re: P/B historical context

This is just one of many ways of using historical price and book value data, but I think it helps give some perspective on the historical P/B.

Here's another historical "insight" data series in the same vein.

My [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:07 AM

Re: NOIS screen

Today's GTR1 picks has many biotechs:

That's about the only category I would be really hesitant to short.
They can have very sudden good news occasionally, and they are also subject to startlingly high-priced [more]

Thu Jul 12

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:27 PM

Re: Trigger points for 99d High

Yesterday the S&P got to within 5 points of a new 99 day high, which would have triggered a bullish signal.
Today it backed off. So we're still in bearish signal territory, by just a hair.


Interestingly borderline market [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:12 PM

Re: P/B historical context

You are using reported book value though, which is 3.5 months old. I'm sure you have a more
sophistacated guess what Q2 end book value might be - but I think it could be around 145 per B share
(no major hiccups in businesses or
[more]

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mungofitch posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:23 PM

P/B historical context

Just a fun chart
stonewellfunds.com/PB.png

This shows the lowest, 15th percentile, average, 85th percentile, and highest price-to-known-book ratio by calendar year.
The horizontal line [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:19 PM

Re: P/B history

sorry, ignore!
Wrong board by accident.
Jim

Wed Jul 11

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 PM

Re: Investors' opinion are fickle

Your post is full of jumping to conclusions... :) Like I relied on hearsay and luck to determine core FCF

Well, you said your source wasn't company statements.
There are only so many sources of information about any [more]

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Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:39 PM

Re: Investors' opinion are fickle

I can't recall the last time I laughed out loud while reading a conversation about investing.

You shouldn't.
I was being less nice than I should have, for which I apologise.

Snarkiness has no upside.
Reading [more]

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mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:25 PM

Re: Investors' opinion are fickle

only you can read "It is not their financials helped me to arrive their core FCF is not going to
cover the dividend and dividend cut is inevitable." that as by reading the statements.


Sorry, I didn't mean to jump to [more]

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