mungofitch’s Activity

Today

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 25 minutes ago

OT: It's quiet. Too quiet...

Anyone notice that this is the 11th trading day in a row with virtually every trade showing the S&P between 2160 and 2175?
That's a range of only about 0.7%.

I guess that will change soon enough, one way or another.

Jim

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 32 minutes ago

Re: CBI misses and cuts guidence

Well, looking for a silver lining, the nice thing is that "value" picks tend to react lightly to bad news.
Conversely if a stock market growth darling misses, the stock takes a hammering.

For CBI, already in the dog house, [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 55 minutes ago

Re: gtr1 questions

Regarding aprc, let's say I am using SIP data. I should use the
SIpro price and ignore aprc? What is confusing about aprc is that the
other price data is associated with a data set - sipro, value line,
Yahoo, and so on. But aprc
[more]

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:39 PM

Re: gtr1 questions

Is it possible to randomly select x choices from the selections that pass a screen?
Or to assign random numbers to stocks? I do not see any mention in the document above.


This is actually pretty hard, but doable.
I have done [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:25 PM

Re: How do you get picks for a blend in GTR1?

The picks for a blend are simply the concatenation of the picks for all the individual screens.
Things picked more than once are counted more than once and therefore weighted doubly in the portfolio.
So, whether the GTR1 blender handles it or [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:22 PM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

Below is a table of all S&P stocks, with their P/Es. The last row has totals. The last column is ...

My kinda guy.
We may all have our own different interpretations of the data, but it's nice to start with [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:23 PM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

What if the explanation for this is really simple: a couple of outliers is pulling the P/E up, but the market as a whole is not overvalued at all.
Some time ago I made a back-of-the-envelope calculation to see what the S&P's P/E would
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:22 AM

Re: Liquidity

I've found as a rule of thumb that you generally won't have much of
a problem if your order represents less than 2% of the average daily
dollar volume of that stock, and may have problems over 4%.
So, for a long while I used [more]

Tue Jul 26

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 2:21 PM

Re: FKA: Marissa Mayer

Don't understand the vicious Marissa Mayer hate...

Yeah, folks. If you can't say something nice, say nothing at all.
She has many worthwhile accomplishments. Several are outlined in her wikipedia article. [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:08 PM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

Perhaps the general increase in valuations may be related to the decline in dividend payout ratios. ...

FWIW, dividend payout ratios haven't really changed that much.
The first data point I have kicking around is 45.3% in [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:26 AM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

I agree - this entire thread seems to be missing the crucial point - which is to ask why
are current valuations above historical levels (note: I did not say fair value here) - and if that is sustainable - and if so for how
[more]

Mon Jul 25

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 1:17 PM

Re: FKA: NFLX

The *typical* firm takes around a decade to double in real value.
...
AMZN 10x'ed it's revenue from 2006 to 2015. They doubled every 2 or 3 years. !


Sure. I didn't suggest otherwise.
But that misses my point, [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 12:57 PM

Re: FKA: NFLX

If your toolbox consists of valuing the companies by their so-called
reported earnings, and ignore these factors, you may find they are not valuable.


Bit of a straw man, don't you think?
In any case I for one would never [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:35 AM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

Oh and if earnings follow the exact trend and P/E goes to 15, S&P would be at 1177 for a loss of 45+%.
...
That first comment doesn't appear to be a prediction, just an observation.
...
C'mon. If you believe that fair
[more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:59 AM

Re: OT: S&P earnings

Oh and if earnings follow the exact trend and P/E goes to 15, S&P would be at 1177 for a loss of 45+%.
...
We have discussed this a few times in last 5 years. Every time there is a dire prediction that S&P 500 will go down by
[more]

Sat Jul 23

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Falling Knives board. 11:33 AM

Re: FKA: NFLX

Too many folks see it as nothing more than a price number getting bigger, and extrapolate from that.

Well...

It's been working so far, hasn't it.


Well, yes. This is the thinking of those people.
But [more]

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:52 AM

Re: Yahoo Finance

Could this be the answer?

No.
I presume that Yahoo (or rather, Yahoo's data provider) does the same thing with all dividend paying stocks, absent any bugs.
The dividend is assumed to have been reinvested at the closing [more]

Fri Jul 22

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:33 PM

Re: Ted disposal of CBI looking smart in rear mirror

I don't think there is anything that makes a major change to my opinion of the firm's worth.
Not based on information available so far, anyway. Law suits come and go.

But I have to say, $2.4bn is a pretty big disagreement about [more]

Thu Jul 21

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:35 PM

Re: Bet we beat them, too!

From the article

"Let's dispel one myth. Hedge funds don't represent a true asset class but are simply trading strategies..."

I'd rephrase that as "Hedge funds don't represent a true asset class [more]

Wed Jul 20

NL

Boards Post

mungofitch replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:15 PM

Re: WFC dividend

What's your favorite dividend paying stock for the long run?

For a long hold and a large position, the consideration that dwarfs all
others is the long run reliability and predictability of the fortunes of the firm.
What [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 74912
Score 0.00
Score Change Today 0
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 0
Total Picks 0
Best Pick ( 0)
Worst Pick ( 0)
Average Score per Pick 0.00
Charms Earned 1
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to mungofitch’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool
Board Posts 18191
Recs Received 126650
People who have rec'd these posts 2374
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 35.50
Threads Started 1588
Threads Started Percentage 8.73 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post Re: LiveCalc broken (10/25/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 85.60 %
Show mungofitch’s 10 Latest Posts