knighttof3’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Humor and Urban Legends board. 2 hours ago

Re: 1997 vs 2017: Internet edition

Very well, amend to "thanks to the advent of social media".

OJ:

"Hi Dad, I am pregnant."
"Hello Pregnant, have you seen my daughter?"

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2 hours ago

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

You win. Amazon OF TODAY earns bunches of money, Berkshire is gold, up is down and black is white.
Well, Trump is president so the tech tycoons advocating that we are living in a simulation may be right. Who knows what is real.

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Humor and Urban Legends board. 3 hours ago

Re: 1997 vs 2017: Internet edition

Thanks to the advent of Facebook -

2007: Post your personal details on the Internet.

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 3 hours ago

Re: Investing in Dividend Champions

Just as anybody could have invested in AAPL or AMZN with no foreknowledge.

But it's nothing but hindsight bias. And therefore it's garbage.


Hold on before you declare it garbage.

Picking specific stocks [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3 hours ago

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Assuming you are smarter than bumpkin, do you know how you are going to get your money back from your Berkshire investment?

I assume nothing! :-)

I am hoping to get my money back based on the earnings power and the capacity [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 7:06 PM

Re: Investing in Dividend Champions

Good link!

The assumptions he makes are very fair - more than fair in fact - how many of DGI investors could be so passive? And yet DGI wins over S&P 500 in an 8-year bull market which supposedly helps growth/junk stocks more than [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Foolish 401(k)s board. 3:58 AM

Re: My 401k

It's a reasonable and well-diversified mix - no cash, 10% bonds, 45% large-cap, 15% mid-cap, 20% small-cap, 10% international.
If you have the alternative in your 401K, you can also go with an all-in-one Vanguard Retirement Date fund with the [more]

Fri Jul 21

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 4:25 PM

Re: Poll: When do you plan to take SocSec

Under most reasonable scenarios, and not counting extra returns from investing the early retirement money, the total amount of money I will get after 62 is more than that after 70 unless I live past 85 or so. I am going to take it early.
I [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:21 PM

Re: WEBsite: hipster icon?

Web pages have all sorts of cookie link to ad servers and trackers. Each of these invisible links consumes some bandwidth, but even more latency delays. Just formatting the page with no external dependencies is really fast.


Good [more]

Thu Jul 20

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:04 PM

Re: Oversold?

Telecoms look ripe for a bounce to me. Boring, but I'm a boring guy.

Why does it look ripe?
I mean, I know it's a sector all by itself and everything, but I think that's a holdover from 90s and the telecom boom. To [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:23 PM

Re: WEBsite: hipster icon?

Just because they can display a lot of fancy stuff, the web page designers seem to feel obligated to show they can do it.

Rick Perry was absolutely right (though not the first one to notice this.)

Supply creates demand.

Wed Jul 19

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:09 PM

Re: IBM: revenue down, EPS down, adjusted EPS up

Are you guys positing that IBM's AI technology is worthless (despite beating Ken Jennings in Jeopardy)? That it's so over-hyped as to remind you of Theranos (Elizabeth Holmes's "blood unicorn")?
Or is it technically inferior [more]

Tue Jul 18

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:01 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

By the way, ask yourself this: if your cousin came to you with a business idea that he was offering
to do all the work for, all he needed was an influx of capital from you (and you would be a silent
partner). Would you focus on what
[more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:31 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

To repeat, in different language: take even a 0% discount rate and intrinsic value is finite
because the grim reaper comes for one and all.


OK, you made me look up St Petersburg paradox (to quote Bush: "I am not a smart [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:48 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Apologies for formatting. Let me try again.


Yeah, I am the guy who looks at an earnings yield of 10% and goes, "This is going to take 10 years
to pay me back, how confident am I that the business will even be around after
[more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:33 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Yeah, I am the guy who looks at an earnings yield of 10% and goes, "This is going to take 10 years
to pay me back, how confident am I that the business will even be around after 10 years". I'll take
any multiple expansion
[more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:30 PM

IBM: revenue down, EPS down, adjusted EPS up

WEB should keep holding it, it is bound to come back one day. In the mean time, think of the dividends!

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/ibm-earnings-q2-2017.html
[more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:21 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Lets assume $50 owner earnings per
share exactly 5 years from now. Further, let's assume a price paid today of $1000 (mainly
picking these numbers to make the arithmetic simple, but they are pretty close to the
numbers you are
[more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:02 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

5 years from now when AMZN triples what will the market cap be?

More than Berkshire and Apple combined, that's what.

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:43 PM

Re: OT again, sorry: Wishful thinking

Here is the bull case for Amazon -
Amazon sales have grown by 27%/year over the last 10 years (with a very high degree of certainty in this number.) In 2021 (5 more years, again being as favorable as possible to Amazon) they will be 3 times 2016 [more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts
Board Posts 5217
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Very First Post My dumbest investment - ENT (12/6/2007)
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