knighttof3’s Activity

Today

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:28 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

Shame on you to blame me for this thread. I am not trying the one who tried to prove this statistics is wrong and got on high horse. There are all sorts of folks jumping in and taking pot shot is typical internet group mindset.

Are you
[more]

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 7:36 PM

Re: OT: First a private email server, now...

Jeff,
I dislike Trump intensely as a person, but has he broken any law? Unless he has, you can't equate his personal cell phone use to Hillary's complete (and quite possibly criminal) mishandling of emails, including deleting several [more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 5:39 PM

Re: Sears CEO Beating a Dead Horse

So far I have priced Best Buy, Lowe’s, and Sears. Sears was at minimum $100 more on every single appliance. Yeah, I know they dicker, but so do the guys at Best Buy and Lowe’s and Home Depot, and it was a turnoff to have them overprice so much [more]

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Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:33 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

My starting point would be to take the split of U.S. vs non-U.S. revenue and apply that. For 2017,
this was $106B to $54B. That is, about 66%. So I think half might be too low.


I disagree. Prime rates appear to be lower in [more]

Mon Apr 23

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Words, Words, Words board. 8:33 PM

Re: Grammer

SUBJUNCTIVE

Scrodify that, what about GRAMMAR ?

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Humor and Urban Legends board. 12:17 PM

Re: AJ's Monday 23rd caption challenge

"President Trump, wearing red, held a private meeting today with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, seen here wearing blue and a profoundly satisfied expression."

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:56 AM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

The last time you said this was 50% ago when AMZN crossed 1000. Exactly how big is this pile of money that you so badly need to get rid of? :)

I think I have been at it since Amazon was 500 or so. It's not all losses since [more]

Sat Apr 21

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:25 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

I know it's not the Costco model (see my post in response to mungo's).

But you are looking at everything on a more or less static basis. Look 5 years down the line. I
don't think it's particularly optimistic to assume
[more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:54 PM

Re: It is 100 million subscribers and...

So then you get a value of $5000 per current Prime relationship.

Like Jim noted, it's not the Costco model of pure profit from membership. You get a whole bunch of stuff for free. Still, assume retail breaks even AND prime is [more]

Fri Apr 20

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:56 PM

Re: Valuation, profits matter... not really

What's more worrisome is that we may see a repeat of this in Apple. Great past numbers, solid balance sheet, but a couple of overhyped dud products and Apple becomes largely irrelevant.
I don't see what Buffett sees in Apple,
[more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:21 PM

Re: Valuation, profits matter... not really

http://mebfaber.com/2018/04/18/how-to-launder-money-with-ama...

Very interesting.
Would Amazon really be liable [more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Mutual Funds board. 1:58 AM

Re: Market Crash & Stable Return Fund

Money market funds are supposed to be like savings - similar rates and implied stability. Even in 2008 IIRC there was one mm fund that broke the buck before the government insured all of them. Anyway you can't expect stock-like returns from an [more]

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knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:49 AM

Re: Valuation, profits matter... not really

IBM another big mistake at Berkshire.

You don't specify the tense (or the verb) but it WAS. Now Buffett is almost out of IBM.
What's more worrisome is that we may see a repeat of this in Apple. Great past numbers, solid [more]

Wed Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:08 PM

Re: 50% returns

The simple average current earnings yield of the others you list is 6.62%, equating to a P/E of 15.1. The only one over 16.5 is Coke.

15 as a P/E is moderately expensive (IMO) for a large-cap financial.

By contrast, [more]

Tue Apr 17

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:25 PM

Re: 50% returns

Berkshire's portfolio and hence its book value reflects the price of the securities in it, not their intrinsic value.

PS: I get Jim's point about S&P 500 (on the whole) getting multiple expansion and not going up in [more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:10 PM

Re: 50% returns

You're saying Berkshire does control the book value of Berkshire (true), so that's what he should
be measured on, since it's a reasonable proxy metric for the value of the security. Sounds good.

But you don't seem to
[more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:00 PM

Re: 50% returns

Every four months, put a third of the dollar value of your portfolio into the 16 highest ROE firms in the 1700-stock Value Line survey that you don't currently own, in equal dollar amounts.
So, at any given time you own 48 high-ROE stocks
[more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:51 PM

Re: 50% returns

The point is that, no matter what the valuation level, if the year's good gains were accomplished
with the price going up more than the value, then it's reasonable to suppose that the multiple
expansion could not have been
[more]

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:33 PM

Re: 50% returns

Replying to multiple posts.

Which of them, calmly and prudently considered, went up as much in value as it did in price, and so is no more expensive than it was a year earlier?

"More expensive" != [more]

Mon Apr 16

NL

Boards Post

knighttof3 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:47 PM

50% returns

Mega-caps whose total return exceeded 50% in the last year:
NVDA NFLX BA PYPL ADBE CAT ASML AMZN MA BABA INTC

Mega-caps bought personally by Buffett whose total return exceeded 50% in the last year:




At some point [more]

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