kelbon’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:37 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

Yes, the starting date is very influential and a problem recognized at the BMWM board. Each stock has multiple charts depending on how much data Yahoo! has: 16, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 years.

“BMW charts” are simply historical stock [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 3:01 PM

Re: New Portfolio Pick - ADT

The goodwill is only a problem if you think it overpaid for its acquisitions. Otherwise, it's simply the cost of buying its acquired companies' cash generating capabilities.

Principally, I brought up goodwill in reference to the [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:43 AM

Re: A Kick-Butt Homebuilder ...

This is not to say that now is precisely the time to buy it, nor is it to say that their short, 7-year history of success will expand as it has to date.


Home prices have slowed sharply recently. The trajectory of rising [more]

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:21 AM

Re: Is the market overvalued

Earlier I called the work refreshing because it goes back to first principles instead of relying on the hocus-pocus of charting[…]

[…]better stock picking based on price charts, was left for BuildMWell to discover.


Having in [more]

Mon Jul 28

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:28 PM

Re: CALM

There is no reason to think that CALM will not repeat with another $1.30.[…]

Wild Card (positive)- P/E expansion; earnings power, all things equal is about $6/share; the past two quarters aggregate earnings are $3.08. At the current P/E,
[more]

Sun Jul 27

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:12 PM

Re: I wish!

But the bandits at the Fed killed that idea. Suppose you need $30,000 a year, at 5% interest you need $600,000 in capital not to deplete your stake.

Regardless of the Fed. you can generate an income of $30K from $600K by selectively [more]

Fri Jul 25

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:18 PM

Re: Millennials not buying stocks

Since you have not really spelled out which measures show it is expensive

Most measures imply the market is either very expensive, or moderately so:

The Shiller P/E 10 suggests that the market is very overvalued with a [more]

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 1:37 AM

Re: Millennials not buying stocks

What measures show market is overpriced?

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-an...

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 1:33 AM

Re: Millennials not buying stocks

What measures show market is overpriced?

http://www.multpl.com/

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

[more]

Thu Jul 24

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:33 PM

Re: Millennials not buying stocks

Millennials, in fact, have the most conservative investment approach of any age group surveyed by Bankrate and that could be to their own detriment, given the market’s run up.

Not necessarily to their own detriment at all. As the [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:31 AM

Re: More Commentary on Syntel

The "strong rupee" is mostly a temporary phenomenon.
It will devalue constantly over time.


Predicting currency exchange rates is a notoriously difficult endeavor. There are all sorts of unpredictable and inexplicable [more]

Wed Jul 23

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 12:56 PM

Re: Ackman can't leave HLF alone

This article from John Hempton is shameful. It is the most cynical, or naive—not being familiar with author, or his “blogspot”, I can’t say for sure which—imaginable.

To weave a complex story in defense of this company that involves a long [more]

Tue Jul 22

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 2:30 PM

Re: New Portfolio Pick - ADT

Chuck, to play the devil’s advocate :)

What makes ADT so appealing is its sticky subscription model. Its customers buy a system and then pay ADT a recurring monthly subscription fee for monitoring. The upfront cost of the security system [more]

Mon Jul 21

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:52 PM

Re: Ackman can't leave HLF alone

We have had more than our fair share with Kandi.

Summertimes when those tight shorts come out.

But, I want Kandi. Hey!

[more]

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kelbon posted to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 4:25 PM

A dividend quiz

Here's a dividend quiz from CNBC; 15 questions, a lot of no-brainers (no doubt) for those in the know, but taking the quiz quickly I, for one, didn't get a perfect score.

[more]

Fri Jul 18

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 2:27 PM

Re: Abbvie getting Shire

Abbvie is taking the long view. By buying Shire they will reduce their tax burden by, oh about almost half a $billion a year, and that's just to start with. In less than a hundred years the deal will have paid for itself on this basis alone and then [more]

Thu Jul 17

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 4:11 PM

Re: Starbucks

[…]they can't put the Starbucks stamp on it like they did with coffee--booze is booze and anyone can do it.

Newsflash: Starbuck's buys Tito's Vodka from Bert Butler "Tito" Beveridge II in an all cash deal, with the intention [more]

Wed Jul 16

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:11 PM

Re: Starbucks

Never the less, if SBUX can double up on sales by catering to the pm crowd then it could be a lollapalooza sized windfall for shareholders.

At 24x next year's earnings, I'm thinking that isn't too much to pay in this
[more]

Tue Jul 15

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Boards Post

kelbon posted to the Value Hounds board. 2:17 PM

Most respected brands

For what it is worth, a new list of the most respected brands:

[more]

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:26 AM

Re: losers, mergers, & one winner

TEVA, also a great company, also at 34 multiple. How these companies deserve such high multiples is beyond me.

If you dig deeper reported earnings per share aren’t always exactly what they seem. Teva is a case in point. [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 3832
Recs Received 15778
People who have rec'd these posts 1453
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 7.30
Threads Started 463
Threads Started Percentage 12.08 %
Most Frequent Board The BMW Method
Very First Post A word of caution.... (5/15/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 82.88 %
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