kelbon’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:02 PM

Re: question for Mr. Mungo

[…]do you really think he "meant" the S&P? I don't.

Yes.

From the annual letter:

I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate,
American
[more]

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:54 PM

Re: question for Mr. Mungo

Currently i'm sitting at 43% BRK and am considering a "top off" at current levels bringing me to 50% 'ish.

There's a reasonable argument to be made that being 50% in one stock is foolish. On top of that, there's another [more]

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kelbon posted to the iPIG Portfolio board. 2:43 PM

What's in a name?

It's of note that Mine Safety Appliances Co. has changed its name.

Usually, when a company decides to change its name warning bells go off. This might even be a witty play on MSA's part because it's not inconceivable that they make [more]

Thu Apr 17

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 11:48 AM

Re: secured promidary notes

In an ideal world (as envisioned by Ben Graham) "The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all times he is free to disregard the current price quotation.

But this from jgc123 provides a clue to most [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:33 AM

Re: Speaking of what we know- CALM

I admit that eggs are a touchy business...no price control (except value added), at the mercy of the feed commodity traders if not the weather itself. But just because I wouldn't eat a factory egg doesn't mean people the world over won't. [more]

Wed Apr 16

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 12:57 PM

Re: secured promidary notes

I'm using Hussman's P/Peak E (using the highest prior E), keeping in mind that the abnormally high corporate profit margins mean that any E-based valuation measure currently understates valuation to some degree.
Shiller's CAPE gives similar
[more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:41 AM

Re: Speaking of what we know- CALM

Check it out.

I did, in Value Line.

Based on the spreadsheet this would be a stock I would sell, rather than buy. First, and foremost, it's selling at all time high valuations. In the past earnings have been very [more]

Tue Apr 15

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 4:25 PM

Re: secured promidary notes

Not exactly what I'd call flat, despite where it starts and where it ends.

I stand corrected —which will teach me to look at charts as well as data.

The market took a circuitous route ending where it began, though on a [more]

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 3:05 PM

Re: secured promidary notes

[…]It can trade sideways for years with stock prices, more or less, flatlining as corporate earnings advance.
That could happen. It hasn't, ever, but maybe this time is different.


It can, and it has. Here's just one [more]

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 10:49 AM

Re: secured promidary notes

My post about the two people—one who sat on his money waiting for a significant correction and the other who invested in the market even though future returns were expected to be relatively modest—was illustrative rather than predictive. It wasn’t my [more]

Mon Apr 14

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 5:07 PM

Re: secured promidary notes

I'd say go in at 25% below current valuations. It's extremely likely that a corresponding decline will happen within the next few years.

I agree that stock valuations are generally high; I don’t suggest putting most of your money into [more]

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 11:12 AM

Re: secured promidary notes

If you buy stocks, you ARE going to achieve low returns over the next 10 years (no more than 6%), and there will very likely be a point during this time period when stocks will be MUCH cheaper. Perhaps that will already happen later this year or [more]

Sun Apr 13

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:35 PM

Re: Q&A, with Buffett's own #1 question

I had a friend who belonged to Mensa and went to an annual conference, in Florida, in August. Not the smartest choice, Florida, in August, I thought, but then it dawned that they probably wanted to fry their brains.

On her return she [more]

Sat Apr 12

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:46 PM

Re: momentum losing momentum

Even though it seems obvious, the only way to beat the market is not to follow the big trends and what everyone else is doing.

Considering that "the market" refers to an index; a collection of many stocks, it's quite [more]

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 1:58 PM

Re: Dividend ETF or Picking Your Own Stocks?

I have read that DGI has become very popular because of all the people piling into DGI in search of yield. This has driven prices up. DGI stocks historically sell at a discount to valuation metrics, but currently they are at a [more]

Fri Apr 11

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:09 PM

Re: Syntel (SYNT)

The biggest risk as outlined in my article is customer concentration.

This can, indeed, be a big risk. It was kept me away from other investments that otherwise have seemed good. I followed a couple of them over the years and at least [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 4:13 PM

Re: Syntel (SYNT)

no debt

Well… actually—unless it's evaporated since mid-February—they have $138,375,000 in longterm debt.

In spite of this, this stock does look pretty tempting provided they can keep the growth going. And that debt thing; [more]

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 2:40 PM

Re: Dividend ETF or Picking Your Own Stocks?

I'm putting capital appreciation aside in this comparison -- and maybe that is something that can't and shouldn't be done.

If you are not concerned with capital appreciation, but rather higher yields, then put it [more]

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kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 11:50 AM

Re: Dividend ETF or Picking Your Own Stocks?

Im not sure what the value of dividend increases is if the yield is not as high.

The value is capital appreciation and the magic of compounding.

It really depends on what your objective is when it comes to picking stocks and [more]

Thu Apr 10

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 3:52 PM

Re: Dividend ETF or Picking Your Own Stocks?

I am looking to allocate a portion of my portfolio for strong dividend stocks. The plan is to hold these long term, let the dividends grow and reinvest.

Perhaps I misunderstand, but I gather you are looking to create a diversified [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 3760
Recs Received 15417
People who have rec'd these posts 1433
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 13.30
Threads Started 459
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Most Frequent Board The BMW Method
Very First Post A word of caution.... (5/15/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 82.90 %
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