kelbon’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 11:30 PM

Re: A DGI portfolio ponder

Well that's a timely coincidence. This blog post by Chowder showed up in the morning feed.

Well, I read it and it gave me pause and a slightly nauseous feeling. Historically, it is a sure sign of a toppy overheated market when [more]

Tue Dec 12

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:36 AM

Re: Is Berkshire really safe?

If the market can stay irrational for Berky for 5+ (or *your favorite number here*) years, the
odds that it stays irrational for your favorite basket of 20 stocks aren't going to be that much
different (in my opinion).


I [more]

Sun Dec 10

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:02 PM

Re: Is Berkshire really safe?

There are many posts here touting that Berkshire is safe in the event of a market downturn, economic downturn, this machine will keep chucking along.

So the questions I have is, what happens to the huge stock holding? Won't they
[more]

Sat Dec 2

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:36 AM

Re: OT: Bitcoin observation

For a bit of mind expanding fun, try either of these
* Read any article about cats and replace the word “cats” with “dogs” everywhere
* Read any article about dogs and replace the word “dogs” with “cats” everywhere

I'm not saying [more]

Mon Nov 27

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:15 PM

Re: My two worst performers of 2017

I bought OMC and IPG thinking they were cheap. Do you think their ( and WPPGY's) business model is under threat?

Every time stocks that have, so far, had a good track record for earnings growth and safety go seriously on sale [more]

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:18 AM

Re: Back NEAR topic

It's (maybe) a sad state of affairs when two posters -- buyandwin and OrmontUS -- both post extensive portfolio information to be critiqued by the best minds of this fine board and NO ONE responds in any detail[…]

A while ago [more]

Mon Nov 20

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:26 AM

Re: OT: Jim Chanos on Tesla

Same old calculation.
Some day they'll trade at 15 times earnings, because pretty much every firm does.


I see this a lot: "Most companies trade at a P/E of 15 sooner or later." Perhaps it's true but it [more]

Sat Nov 18

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:41 AM

Re: Insufficient Fear

I sort of hope that the current broad US stock market situation does turn out to have been a bubble.
My reason is that it's built on high recent profits, due to amazingly high net margins among US companies,
at profitability levels
[more]

Mon Nov 13

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:22 PM

Re: CAKE

I think The Cheesecake Factory is one of the better-run businesses in the restaurant space. It also looks to be shareholder focused, returning a large part of profits back to investors.

The company has a history of buybacks, seemingly [more]

Fri Nov 10

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:01 PM

Re: ot: favorite metrics

I buy stocks whose Price/Earnings ratios are lower than their Returns on Equity.


As a broad rule of thumb, not bad. But, no Berkshire Hathaway for you then, as the inverse is almost always the case.

kelbon

Mon Nov 6

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 9:43 PM

Re: UA

UA's problems started with the CEOs support and praise of Donald Trump.

Actually, they didn't.

Under Armours's problems started well before Kevin Plank praised Donald Trump on Febuary 7, 2017. He certainly [more]

Sun Nov 5

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 7:19 PM

Re: UA

I want it. I want it bad. I want it so bad.
Please talk me out of it.


This is a company that was hugely successful in branding, attracting customers, and growing earnings. The operative word is “was.” The stock is only desirable [more]

Thu Oct 26

NL

Boards Post

kelbon posted to the Value Hounds board. 11:45 PM

Wait What ?!?!

Wait What?!?! CVS in Talks to Buy Aetna (Today’s Hot Stock!)

[more]

Tue Oct 24

NL

Boards Post

kelbon posted to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 1:11 PM

21 of 51

These handy links from Sure Dividend landed in my inbox.

Once a year they analyze 51 Dividend Aristocrats.
Here’s recent updates of the first 21:

[more]

Sat Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 10:58 PM

Re: Dry powder?

- yes would be eating into capital.

Firstly, there is nothing wrong with “eating into capital.” It also depends how you define this. If stocks’ prices appreciate because of rising earnings and a rising market, making your own [more]

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:17 AM

Re: Fred Schwed Jr. 1940

I’m doing a percentage of Fred Schwed action slowly[…]

Easier said than done; that is, what he counsels rather than what he actually did.

Schwed’s sage advice is easy in theory; much harder in practice. Here’s an alternative [more]

Tue Oct 17

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:11 AM

Re: What are your top short ideas?

What are your top short ideas?

Top and only idea: don't do it; it's almost always a suckers game

kelbon

Mon Oct 16

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 7:04 PM

Re: WPPGY is looking cheap

Would welcome arguments....like am I being a pig?

During the last couple of weeks I initiated a very small position in Omnicom Group. It won out over its almost twin WPP, just.

Both companies have had very sluggish earnings [more]

Sun Oct 15

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:58 PM

Re: Amazon resistant?

Amazon does not have ties to local repair shops which sometimes provide tools and advice

I see the confusion; I should proofread more.

Amazon does not have ties to local repair shops—which auto parts stores do—which (auto [more]

NL

Boards Post

kelbon posted to the Value Hounds board. 7:04 PM

Amazon resistant?

https://qz.com/1102505/the-businesses-amazon-is-most-likely-...

Last month, Morgan Stanley Research surveyed investors at its “Amazon [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 70664
Score 0.00
Score Change Today 0
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 0
Total Picks 0
Best Pick ( 0)
Worst Pick ( 0)
Average Score per Pick 0.00
Charms Earned 0
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to kelbon’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 4973
Recs Received 22436
People who have rec'd these posts 1617
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 522
Threads Started Percentage 10.50 %
Most Frequent Board Value Hounds
Very First Post A word of caution.... (5/15/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 84.94 %
Show kelbon’s 10 Latest Posts