kelbon

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:04 PM

Re: Quantitative Value

Back to go: I was just pointing out that if you hold the right company/companies stock for the long haul this approach sometimes beats a rinse and repeat strategy of whatever variety. One approach isn't necessarily better than the other; it [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 4:04 PM

Re: Can 2 senators end TBTF?

IMO, it's not so much that the beasts have become too large to control, it's the genetic engineering that is creating much more dangerous hybrid animals that's the issue.

There should be impenetrable firewalls between retail and investment [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:48 PM

Re: Quantitative Value

so going back to 1965

There's a significant problem with arbitrarily picking a starting date. Pick another, and the results could be very different. This unfortunately, is the weak-link in calculating returns, which can make a mockery [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 4:35 PM

Re: Quantitative Value

A little clarification perhaps?

'Ever see those statistics that show that if you'd spent, for example, $5,000 in Coca-Cola stock (or Berkshire Hathaway, or any number of others) decades ago, and you'd held through thick and thin, you'd now [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:14 AM

Re: Quantitative Value

Small Ball: Managing a portfolio of stocks based on a factor/mechanical process. Rinse and Repeat.

Long Ball: Searching for the perfect stock and waiting for those fat pitches.

Matthew,

My post was based simply on [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:01 PM

Re: Passionate Investing

Now he tells me.

OK, some clarification: this market surge seems to be "raising all boats that are relatively water tight." Other market surges raised stuff that wasn't any kinda boat, let alone watertight; that is, [more]

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kelbon replied to the The BMW Method board. 11:58 AM

Re: WOW!

I generally ignore posts along the lines of "I've beaten the market!" Whether you think you've beaten (or trailed) the market often depends as much on your frame of mind at the time than objectivity. Sounds like a strange thing to [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:44 AM

Re: Quantitative Value

Again we all are playing the CAGR game -- curious as to which one wins? I am betting that overtime in investing, small ball beats long ball (imho).

As you define "small ball:" rinse and repeat, almost all money managers are [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 12:44 AM

Re: Passionate Investing

The market will have a point when it's happy about a stock you hate that you are completely missing.

Unlikely, I think. Not when the vast majority of stocks are being raised up by a beaming Mr. Market.

I would only go this [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 12:14 AM

Re: iPIG Portfolio FAQ v. 1.0.1

Operating earnings are always greater than net earnings.

That's not necessarily always the case.


True. I should have written: "Operating earnings are almost always greater than net [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 12:54 AM

Re: iPIG Portfolio FAQ v. 1.0.1

APD's dividends are covered by operating cash flow, just not free cash flow.

Exactly the same argument could have been made about Avon. Avon's operating cash flow was about twice their dividends. And, as is the case with Air Products [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:42 PM

Re: Passionate Investing

We should temper our own skepticism and try to appreciate what the market is telling us about these companies.

The market isn't telling us anything about these companies. The market is telling us whether it's happy or [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:20 PM

Re: Dispassionate Investing

So you speak up. And in the process, you risk being labelled as a dissenting troublemaker. Why, because no one else has done the work

As a dissenting troublemaker, this makes me feel a lot better :)

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:13 PM

Re: Volatility Versus Leverage

so again – leverage is the bugaboo, not volatility. and for beating up volatility – just ask yourself why low beta/volatile stocks have outperformed the averages over the long-term?

To take a cue from Buffett and Munger, it's not the [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 11:50 AM

Re: iPIG Portfolio FAQ v. 1.0.1

* Dividends that are well covered. A payout ratio of less than 2/3 of earnings with those earnings well covered by cash flows is ideal, though exceptions can be made if specific circumstances warrant.

The one stock that seems to be [more]

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kelbon replied to the The BMW Method board. 7:09 PM

Re: The year 2000

Due diligence on individual stocks pays off much better than analyzing the overall market.

Or, due diligence on individual stocks pays off much better than ignoring the overall market.

Unfortunately, for the vast [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 4:40 PM

Re: Yield

Damned if you do; damned if you don't. This dilemma faces everyone trying to put money to work after a step up in stock prices. Will the market pullback, or will it keep rising? Unfortunately, there's no way to know. Given relatively recent history [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 12:45 PM

Re: Yield

This can be a tough one. Even if dividends are your focus. Do you buy a (hypothetical) stock which has averaged a dividend yield of about 3.5% for a while after the stock price rises and the yield falls, to say, 3%? I suppose it all depends on [more]

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kelbon replied to the iPIG Portfolio board. 12:12 PM

Re: Yield

I would suggest that $52-$57 would be a fair but not a deeply discounted purchase price, we should be able to make some capital gains money here but not by the truck load.

For what it's worth Morningstar disagrees with you. They rate [more]

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kelbon replied to the The BMW Method board. 12:55 AM

Re: Yahoo Article

The higher a market goes, the more people are inclined to find justifications for its rise, and, reasons that there is still room for it to run. This is human nature; this is greed. Just saying.

Sure, a low interest rate environment pushes [more]