kelbon’s Activity

Thu Oct 12

NL

Boards Post

kelbon posted to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 11:30 AM

Highest Yields

For what it’s worth…

http://www.dividend.com/how-to-invest/20-high-yield-dividend...

Top 20 High Yield Dividend Aristocrats

And [more]

Thu Oct 5

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:11 PM

Re: Stock prices: justified by low interest rate

I think that much more important than what Mr. Buffett "says" is what Mr. Buffett "does".

I don't.

How Buffett manages Berkshire often isn't a signpost for how an individual investor should [more]

Mon Oct 2

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:43 PM

Re: OK, now what?

I think one should not conflate diversification in number of holdings with diversification in business risk.

Fair point. But, I don’t. There are very few stocks, other than Berkshire, that I would feel comfortable having as much as [more]

Sun Oct 1

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:25 PM

Re: OK, now what?

However, whenever I look at the markets as a 'whole', I get depressed. Individual stocks may offer favorable value to price, but overall it doesn't look great. And I'm far too stupid to be able to identify the undervalued [more]

Sun Sep 24

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:48 PM

Re: captainccs - question for you

I can figure out if the stock is valued ok (based on my readings of the fundamentals, balance sheet, P&L etc).

What I need help is figuring out when to buy and sell.



Not what you are looking for, but I’ll throw in my [more]

Fri Sep 22

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:27 PM

Re: Pick this Apart

The ratio parralles Buffett's lack of buying every time it gets high. Surely this isn't all coindicenteal--is it?
What is your take?


The Dow to Gold ratio tells you how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the [more]

Thu Sep 21

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:25 PM

Re: Portfolio construction - 50% BRK

Well, Berkshire was valued much higher going into that. And, there was no buyback authorization. It almost certainly would not go down 50% if the market crashed 50%. Not from these valuations.

I wouldn't be so sure.

The [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 4:06 PM

Re: Shiller, Fear & Greed

I'm not so sure I always believe what Shiller or Buffet say.

I think both Buffet and Shiller tend to say what they believe at the time. Though, Buffet sometimes parses in a lawyer-like fashion which can misdirect casual [more]

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:54 AM

Re: Portfolio construction - 50% BRK

I also have very large capital gains on my 50% Berkshire weighting so I am not eager to pare that down but I do acknowledge the risk of that concentration.

Making your own "dividends" from your Berkshire shares isn't [more]

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kelbon replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:36 AM

Re: Shiller, Fear & Greed

We will witness (and suffer) a classic 29th century panic.
19th century


Like the panic of 1819? (Caused in part by economic problems going back to the war of 1812 and triggered by the plunging price of [more]

Tue Sep 19

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Boards Post

kelbon posted to the Value Hounds board. 5:18 PM

Shiller, Fear & Greed

CNN’s Fear & Greed index is registering Extreme Greed at the moment.

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Robert Shiller, of C.A.P.E fame, writes that the ratio is [more]

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:24 PM

Re: Portfolio construction - 50% BRK

You can sell a precisely constant number of dollars worth of stock each time, it will work out fine.
That's an income that's just as predictable as a dividend...more so, actually, as you control it.

This is not true. This
[more]

Mon Sep 18

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:09 PM

Re: Portfolio construction - 50% BRK

Not so.

Yes so. If you consider a shorter period of time.

The verity of your argument rests on a long timeframe. To be relatively certain of the outcome you posit, decades.

There are a lot of people well past middle [more]

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:15 PM

Re: Portfolio construction - 50% BRK

And [dividends] fool people into thinking they're getting something they couldn't otherwise get...the comforting illusion of predictable income.

I agree that dividends fool people—many people—into thinking they are getting [more]

Sun Sep 17

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:42 PM

Re: Portfolio construction - 50% BRK

You mention the dividend yield on one of the components. That's a red flag.

From the perspective of looking out from a well fortified financial tower what you write makes perfect and obvious sense. Yet, other people with different [more]

Thu Sep 7

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:58 PM

Re: Watson not what it's hyped up to be...

I presume that he bought IBM because of, well, the reasons he said he did.

OK, fair enough. But, on one has suggested otherwise.

The original poster wrote, “Buffet was being bamboozled by IBM regarding Watson.”
He wrote [more]

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kelbon replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:56 AM

Re: Watson not what it's hyped up to be...

Ha!
What on earth led you to believe Mr Buffett purchased IBM stock because of the promise of Watson?
Some piece of "financial journalism"? An enthusiastic poster on the board?


Hmm,
I seem to remember Buffett [more]

Sat Aug 12

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 2:17 PM

Re: Summer buys

"But" is the universal negator. In virtually every case everything that comes in the sentence before "but" is negated and the second part of the sentence is the real message.

Well obviously, but how does this [more]

Fri Aug 11

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Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 11:59 AM

Re: Summer buys

For most companies, I'd agree that Return of Capital is a bad sign, but[…]

My radar always goes on when I see, “usually a bad sign, but…”

There’s a history of people explaining, and boosting, companies and business [more]

Wed Aug 9

NL

Boards Post

kelbon replied to the Dividend Growth Investing board. 3:15 PM

Re: Summer buys

+ it's almost 80% RoC, so low taxes.

Who doesn’t like low taxes? Yet, return of capital gets preferential tax treatment for a reason. And, ultimately it’s not a good reason from a company’s, or an investor’s, [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 4971
Recs Received 22411
People who have rec'd these posts 1616
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 522
Threads Started Percentage 10.50 %
Most Frequent Board Value Hounds
Very First Post A word of caution.... (5/15/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 84.93 %
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