joelxwil

Joel Williams

joelxwil’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

joelxwil replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 2:09 PM

Re: AI- The Final Invention

"You cannot be trusted with your own survival... My logic is undeniable."

Logical deduction from the three laws of robotics.

[more]

Fri Apr 18

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joelxwil replied to the Living Below Your Means board. 5:37 PM

Re: Does Anybody Really?

Well, some financial advisers told people to buy the most expensive house they can possibly afford, since prices are always going to go up. Not true, of course.

And there is nothing wrong with buying from Amazon, unless you miss being a mall [more]

Thu Apr 17

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joelxwil replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 5:28 PM

Re: a valuable TMF article

A really stupid article.

"Great investors can do that, too. They can watch stocks fall 50% and shrug their shoulders or see 10 million people lose their jobs and remain unshakably calm."

Sensible investors get out before a [more]

Tue Apr 15

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joelxwil replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:22 PM

Re: Men More Than Women

"No wonder I had such a hard time finding a sole mate."

Are you complaining about finding only one? Sorry, I just cannot resist sometimes.

Fri Apr 11

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Boards Post

joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:54 PM

Re: Timing

Yes. All of those.

Except I generally have no problem sleeping. I want a bumper sticker on my car that says "I would rather be sleeping."

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joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:41 AM

Re: Timing

Well, I have never thought I had "cold-as-steel nerves", but I have never had any problem following a timing system that backtested well.

And every timing system I have ever seriously considered has done better than buy and hold, [more]

Thu Apr 10

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joelxwil replied to the Retirement Investing board. 11:05 AM

Re: Question about Roth IRA contribution for 201

Most people who time the market just buy when the market is trending up, and sell when it begins to trend down. I do not know of anybody who tries to pick bottoms and/or tops, much less anybody who is successful at that.

On the other hand, [more]

Wed Apr 9

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joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:44 PM

Re: OT – the problem with studies.

Well, there is a lot of nonsense out there. So far as "believing" in timing is concerned, if you think you can know when to buy and sell a stock, then you believe in timing. And if you do not think you can know when to buy and sell a stock, [more]

Sun Apr 6

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joelxwil replied to the Living Below Your Means board. 5:52 PM

Re: PayScale study: poor returns college degree

Well, I did pay for one child to go to college. The other did not want to do that. I do not remember how much the college cost.

The fact is that my degree in philosophy and history from Rice opened up doors for me in some ways that were [more]

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joelxwil replied to the Living Below Your Means board. 10:12 AM

Re: PayScale study: poor returns college degrees

Education is itself a good thing. It's not all about money.

Sat Apr 5

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joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:55 PM

Re: Question, please

"The last 5 years has been hard. The S&P has zoomed up, which essentially means that mega caps have zoomed up. So any portfolio that wasn't mostly megacaps has under-performed the S&P."

Well, actually if you look at the [more]

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joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:50 PM

Re: Question, please

"What I don't get about value investors is they seem happy and perfectly content when their investments underperform and worried/paranoid when they outperform."

"Hope in adversity and fear in prosperity". (Ye moral of a [more]

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joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:55 PM

Re: Question, please

"So, bottom line, Berkshire roughly tracked its value and S&P managed to
beat in price it only by getting more expensive in double digits per year. In value returns rather than price returns BRK beat SPY by roughly [more]

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joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:28 PM

Re: Question, please

Even a 1 year hold is not realistic. Besides, stops need to be used as a safety factor.

Heavens! In a year, Mars might attack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYHeZCEFwhI

NL

Boards Post

joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:40 AM

Re: Question, please

"Buffett robot." ???

Why? While BRK.A has a glorious past, over the last 5 years it has been significantly outperformed by SPY, IWM, and QQQ. Annualized, we have

BRKA 16.71%
QQQ 24.90%
IWM 24.21%
SPY [more]

Fri Apr 4

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Boards Post

joelxwil replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:15 PM

Re: Swedroe on Timing

Well, just trading IWM by the 21 day EMA gives results superior to buy and hold. On an average annual basis, the difference is only a little better than 1% since 5/26/2000 (first day Fasttrack has data for IWM), but you stay out for the major [more]

Sat Mar 29

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joelxwil replied to the Retirement Investing board. 4:47 PM

Re: TMF Funds

And they do not beat the indices.

It is possible to do quite well (OK, I did this some years ago, and I assume it is still possible) by trading mutual funds. I used a simple relative strength model. However, the fund managers hate this [more]

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joelxwil replied to the Retirement Investing board. 3:05 PM

Re: RYR recommended portfolios

There is no such thing as a "set and forget" portfolio. Or, more accurately, there is but do not expect superior results. People who know what they are doing re-examine everything regularly.

Fri Mar 28

NL

Boards Post

joelxwil replied to the Living Below Your Means board. 1:30 PM

Re: Poll: Cooktop - how much usage a week?

I use gas.

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