jgc123’s Activity

Mon Aug 31

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 5:02 PM

Re: Interest rate trap

I may have misled you because I don't like to share too much detail about my personal situation. *Most* of our cash is in our state credit union savings account earning .65%. The money in our short term bond fund is a smaller amount that would not [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 2:58 PM

Re: Interest rate trap

Poz: "If you want my forecast.....I'd say until the markets are allowed to cleanse themselves naturally, I think we see deflation.....

"But that does not translate into me believing in "Trust me, I'm from the Government" [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 2:10 PM

Re: Interest rate trap

So what do you think the inflation numbers are for this day/week/month/year and how do you arrive at them?

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:10 PM

Re: Interest rate trap

Poz: "While many services have been commoditized, not all are and one study excluding services altogether and arriving at very similar numbers to another study which includes them in certain sectors and services comprising a major part of our [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 11:43 AM

Re: Interest rate trap

Poz: "I find it interesting that the BLI data includes services for some industries and the MIT only include prices, yet both come out about the same?"

My guess is that independent methods arriving at similar conclusions might mean [more]

Sat Aug 29

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:55 PM

Re: Fed to raise rates why?

"I'm not going to get into an argument with you (because I know you're smarter than I am), but the 2008 financial crisis was NOT the same as the Great Depression, so comparisons with the 1930's just don't work for me."


IMO, [more]

Thu Aug 27

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 2:50 PM

Re: Ultta low or negative interest rates

Pos:

I read the speech. Assuming his assessment is accurate, how does it impact your investment decisions?

We (jgcspouse and I) have paid off our home and beach house.

We are continuing to max our sheltered [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 8:50 AM

Re: Market correction....to what levels?

I don't think anybody can accurately predict the depth and breadth of market corrections. All we can do is make our best (and safest) guesses.

I decided yesterday that a small chunk of VTSAX (VTI Admiral) was a reasonable risk at $98 [more]

Tue Aug 25

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 8:41 PM

Re: Market correction....to what levels?

Mark: "On the other hand, you also can't say "it worked" until you return to normal fiscal policy (i.e. not ZIRP) without ill effects."

I disagree. You can say that chemotherapy "worked" if it saved the life of [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 2:16 PM

Re: Market correction....to what levels?

Didn't Reinhart and Rogoff delete five lines from their excel spreadsheet in a way that led to a bunch of false conclusions in their oft-cited study?

[more]

Thu Aug 20

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 7:52 PM

Re: Today was a nasty day in the markets...

" Nothing was spared from the bloodbath. Even Cramer, the bubblevision blowhard cheerleader, pointed out that Disney, that charmed darling of Wall Street, has fallen 22% in 2 weeks and is likely to fall further.


You make me feel [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:22 AM

Re: OT: what is the big picture for OIL?

At some point I must examine my own motives in replying to posts on a board on a topic that belongs on another board. I think I owe it to the regulars to put this thread back on 'ignore'.

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:06 AM

Re: OT: what is the big picture for OIL?

I think your are looking at c02 in isolation rather than in the context of multiple forcings. The earth can and does warm and cool on a global scale due to solar activity, but increases in C02 and do trap energy and temperatures can and do continue [more]

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:52 AM

Re: OT: what is the big picture for OIL?

"So increasing CO2 leads to El Niño which leads to greater snow storms
which leads to cooler temperatures."

I don't understand your reply.

In the first place, I think scientists are demonstrating that el nino [more]

Wed Aug 19

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:30 PM

Re: OT: what is the big picture for OIL?

For those of you who are interested a strong el nino season may be upon us this year:

[more]

Tue Aug 18

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:46 AM

Re: OT: what is the big picture for OIL?

"500 million years ago CO2 levels were 13x higher than they are today."

I wanted to stay out of this thread knowing that it was likely a waste of time once it got sidetracked by the climate debate. First, for context I think most [more]

Sat Jul 11

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 8:16 AM

Re: Is now a good time to look at shorting?

AD: "Make no mistake - the US will enter a recession some time in the next 3 years. Recession ALWAYS cause substantial declines in stock prices.
The higher the valuation of the market is, the higher the decline. At current valuation levels, [more]

Fri Jul 10

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 posted to the Climate Change board. 4:26 PM

El Nino Update

I apologize if this has already been posted:

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-outlook-str...

Thu Jul 9

NL

Boards Post

jgc123 replied to the Retire Early Liberal Edition board. 4:12 PM

Re: Brushes with greatness!

Nobody famous. But I had some excellent professors at W&M who earned respect within their fields:

Fred Schauer: [more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 13022
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