itconsultant’s Activity

Today

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itconsultant posted to the Falling Knives board. 12:21 PM

WTW...

i would not touch it at $20 when someone pitched to me.

fast declining revenues. Lot of debt... bad combo..

net debt to ebitdas 6x ( s = stock comp?)

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:19 PM

Re: some notes on Verisign

at $65 now , stock is more like 21x.. but that eps growth is impressive.

Yesterday

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Boards Post

itconsultant posted to the Last RoundUp board. 7:07 PM

HPQ quick pass after results

HPQ dropped 10% post earnings release.

Main criteria is FCF guidance is $3.5 to $4b. Market Cap is $60B.

Top line is still trending flat to down for 3 years now. they improved b/s by paying down debt, building cash. FCf has been [more]

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 6:54 PM

Re: KSS Q4 2014 out

EV/E or EV/FCF? FCF is much higher than NI...

Yes my friend has said its double counting if you do EV/FCF. So he suggested EV/FCF + interest or just P/FCF....

I know you are being conservative.

Well then maybe you should [more]

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itconsultant replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:06 PM

Re: Analyst price targets going up

ofcourse that is the case on th wway up and down.. they will downgrade from buy to hold or even sell after price has come down 20%!!

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:24 PM

Re: MNDO Q4 2014 update

took me 4 years to get over this ...that forget the past buys and sells and the prices!!!

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Boards Post

itconsultant posted to the Last RoundUp board. 12:18 PM

KSS Q4 2014 out

I bought KSS at $45 in July 2012. Shares out were 240m. Market cap $11b. net debt $1.1b ( ignoring leases). My thesis was a cheap stock with solid stable FCF, buybacks and dividends.

Here is a snippet from my report on the [more]

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:02 PM

Re: MNDO Q4 2014 update

thanks guys!

I think i had many poor sells in the past. I am going to post on KSS in the next thread..what i did wrong and how to evaluate better?

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Boards Post

itconsultant posted to the Last RoundUp board. 11:09 AM

MNDO Q4 2014 update

Mind CTI is a tiny niche company that makes software for communication companies ( pre paid , post paid billing etc).

Q4 Results out today.

Revenue $6.5m v/s $5.1m (flat sequentially)
Op Income $2.5m v/s $1m.
NI $1.9m v/s [more]

Wed Feb 25

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 4:25 PM

Re: ELX

u were not wrong to sell in my opinion from waht u describe

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:44 PM

Re: Marsh and McLennan (MMC)

whats a tide stock...

couldn't you find several stocks that have that eps growth and similar or lower p/e to get you to the 5% min and 20% max in 2years?

then will u keep taking 1% positions in then?

how many can u then [more]

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:36 PM

Re: Marsh and McLennan (MMC)

maybe a lower price will make it easier? like a $52 or so..

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:16 PM

Re: Marsh and McLennan (MMC)

Using John Neff total return formula
EPS growth =11%
yield = 2%

13/18 = 0.7 ( satisfies the max he would pay for it)...

Nice to see his formula in real world application and Martians picks !!

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:05 PM

Re: Marsh and McLennan (MMC)

Firstly

THANKS for posting and for the idea of this board. It is much more educational than just plain reading VL and saying PASS coz i dont want to pay 20x

Very good and simple write up. I always passed on anything banks and [more]

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itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:55 PM

Re: Bought DISCA/KIRK

I looked a bit at DISCA but went via Viacom. Cheaper on P/E and P/FCF at 10-12x. Same sort of debt profile. buybacks + dividends there.

EPS growth is 8-10% via buybacks. Flat top line and flat Ni/FCF. buybacks are helping support eps and [more]

Tue Feb 24

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:19 AM

Re: Running a Test Portfolio

i been thinking of doing this experiment as well. let us know how it goes over the year. good luck

i sold MNDO last time coz it always falls after the dividend!! and it doubled after that! ( and it was 5x fcf)

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:26 AM

Re: CIX

Just a small point. since they pay dividends, cash accumulation will be a bit lower than you indicate. about $0.35 a year so cash may end up $4.3 end of 2016 in theory....

Still very high % of market cap 35% - 38% if they can produce that [more]

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:14 AM

Re: Sold Colm (part)

The low P/E approach was where p/e was under 10 and eps growth was 15% ... that part?

i did not read the ROE part well enough . i need to re- read it.

Mon Feb 23

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:52 PM

Re: CIX

Some questions


Looking at VL sheet, Revenues dropped a lot in 2012 from $139m to 83m. Know why? However in seeing the 10K i see 2011 sales were $79m not $139m... Cant trust the VL sheet for small caps? Or was there a [more]

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Boards Post

itconsultant replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:47 PM

Re: Sold Colm (part)

Martian

looks you should consider a dink in TSCO given you like it but keep missing it due to valuation...and given you focus on earnings growth and risk / reward, if it has more positives you should give it a strong thought. better than [more]

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Score Change Today -22.02
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Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 842
Recs Received 977
People who have rec'd these posts 299
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Threads Started 206
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Very First Post A SA Your Success Stories post. (11/9/2006)
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