ilmostro’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:53 PM

Re: 52 week highs

In real total return all-time terms, the S&P and its cap-weighted predecessors
have been off peak by 20% or more 41% of the time, not 8% of the time, since 1930.
Rather a large difference.

Thanks Jim,

Well I don't know [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:04 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

Excellent insight Baltassar!

Value investors think they are smarter than momentum investors.
Momentum investors think value investors are dumb.
I try to combine the 2 approaches so I guess I am the dumbest of them all.

Bryan

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:11 AM

52 week highs

http://theirrelevantinvestor.tumblr.com/post/117709204698/an...?

"Stocks have made new 52-week highs nearly 10% of [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:20 AM

Re: Long-term value MI?

It all comes down to what you have the most faith in because no matter what method of investing is chosen it will not be smooth sailing.

Bryan

Sat May 2

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:58 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

What if his next door neighbor or his brother in law or his children read the board, and he doesn't want to share the information with them?
Sheesh, enough already.


That is a possibility we will never know the true [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:52 AM

Re: I have done this before but...

Don't bother. Just bozo bin them and move on.

That is indeed a very effective solution. I use it myself, just for 1 person though.

But am thinking of putting my first MI board poster in there.
I love Ray, his wit, his [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:21 AM

Re: I have done this before but...

FC,

just go to the user variable page and look for the RS/PE UV:
http://www.tradesim.info/uservars.php
Click on that link and it will show all screens ever run that use that [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:06 AM

Re: I have done this before but...

Sigh

Ray why come up with all these excuses for not knowing the returns and then admitting you do indeed know the returns. Disingenuous to me at least. Oh well just chalk it up to always view what you say with a jaundiced eye. Thanks [more]

Fri May 1

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:56 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

Yes, I agree what you don't know what the big deal is.

Your returns must be so great that you worry about other's joining in and ruining your returns.

Another thing, I suspect that very few people do strictly and [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:37 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

I'd rather expect 15% in a decade and get 15% than expect 25% and get an unknown number between 7% and 27%.

I have no expectation, the market will give whatever it gives it don't give a crap about your expectation.

Bryan

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:35 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

So on average 5 cruises a year and 57 ship days per year. Awesome.

Kind of surprising to me that a vocal MI supporter knows that data but not the returns using MI techniques.

You said you don't believe in 20+ CAGR's so you must not [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:28 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

Yes, you did. But at the same time you insist, incessantly, that people must share their real life results, otherwise they are not contributing to others' knowledge.

Partly correct.

I never said that those who don't share [more]

Thu Apr 30

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:31 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

my shared information didn't make you any smarter.

Maybe not smarter but more aware anyway. Besides Jim said my returns didn't mean anything unless he could compare to MI stalwarts returns so maybe it made him smarter or more [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:25 PM

Re: A Weighted* View

Since Jan 2, 2009 I am beating SPY but not RSP.
Me 178
SPY 153
RSP 211

So your assertion about AAPL being the driver doesn't seem accurate.

Bryan

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:14 PM

Re: A Weighted* View

So, take a look at the overall market since 2008, what regime is it in?
A: The S&P500 has shot out the lights. Nothing has worked as well as simply holding the S&P500.


Since Jan 2, 2008 the WerPort has a TR of 111, SPY 66, [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:08 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

Thanks for the reply Tom.

That said, the welcome feelings accompanying deep value investing are of the sort that accompany sound sleep.

Well I never lost any sleep over investment worry. Not once.

Bryan

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:01 PM

Re: A Weighted* View

Also, I wonder about the WER universe, how it is selected, and whether something may have changed in their process or methods.

The WER published rules have stayed pretty consistent.
Price> 10. Used to be [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:34 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

Ray,

With all these changes you talk about I gather you don't even know if you are beating the index, any index, much less an "appropriate index".

That's ok. Mr. Buffet hasn't beaten an appropriate index in 2 [more]

Wed Apr 29

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:31 PM

Re: A Weighted* View

I think Ray misunderstood what I was saying about staggered start dates.
I meant using the same screen across different start dates not staggering your screen updates on different dates.

The WER does indeed have extreme start date [more]

NL

Boards Post

ilmostro replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:27 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

With longer term holds, the fundamental quality of selections becomes far more important.

Deep value guys help me understand this.

I have never once bought a stock just to get a warm fuzzy feeling.
I buy tickers to get [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts
Board Posts 3647
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