howardroark’s Activity

Sat Jul 25

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:13 AM

Re: ibm revenue collapse

Imagine a steady state Amazon with Walmart's current net profit of about $1 for every $30 in sales.
Let's say that they hit this steady state ten years from now, and have twice the revenue they do now.
That would put revenue at about
[more]

Fri Jul 24

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:06 PM

Re: That warm fuzzy feeling...

Yeah they have both sets, which seem to be taken directly from Silverblatt. Bloomberg & Factset are a little higher for whatever reason.

[more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:49 PM

Re: That warm fuzzy feeling...

3) Forward Op EPS one year ahead is $111.xx (from a 3rd party source, but I think accurate), I don't have forward GAAP, but traditionally 5-15% lighter.

Factset, Bloomberg and the "official" [more]

Thu Jul 16

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:28 PM

Re: Nope

But didn't Redbox have a lot more to do with the demise of the video rental stores than Netflix? Redbox has gone from not much in 2005 to $2b in revenue last year.

Redbox is definitely part of the longer story , but I think Netflix [more]

Wed Jul 15

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:49 PM

Re: Nope

did everything go poof with the Hollywood deal? wasn't the rationale to get more scale and into gaming rental?

In retrospect the Hollywood deal was more like sprinting toward the lion; they were food either way. But before the [more]

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howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:03 PM

Nope

Netflix just passed 65 million subs. It has 41 million streaming subs in the US alone, and US streaming revenues are running over $4 billion a year. I always liked Reed Hastings, but I would never have predicted they'd be able to glide so seamlessly [more]

Sun Jul 12

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:36 AM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

So the 20 million unvested RSUs become 5.2 million extra shares by virtue of the fact that about 3/4 of the RSUs are for future work, which will be charged as an expense when the work gets done.

This is closer than the previous two [more]

Fri Jul 10

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:25 PM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

I don't know what roark meant. Perhaps he misread the line for 'Restricted stock units and other contingently issuable shares' (1.045 million shares, added to basic shares outstanding, presumably because this is the part of the RSU grant for which [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:36 PM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

to be clear, does that mean I am 'safe' using Goog's reported Q1 diluted share count or ought I add another ~20m or so to the total?

If you want to include all the RSUs already granted less GOOG's expected forfeiture rate (which is [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:07 PM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

*does the diluted share account already include unvested RSUs?

Yeah these rules are complex and annoying. Unvested RSUs are included in the denominator, but they are adjusted (downward) via the Treasury Method. You probably know that [more]

Sun Jun 28

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:41 AM

Re: Greece?

Would anyone care to explain the situation in Greece? It seems like things are coming to a head, but I don't really understand it or what it might mean for investors. Is there the potential for another crisis?

Greece has debt coming [more]

Tue Jun 16

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:58 PM

Re: Poll: The next bubble?

last post - they are! Part of Burlington Northern - or used to be - plastered on the 2011 10K

These are famous bonds. They were one of the bonds that were originally payable in gold or dollars at the lender's choice, but then Congress [more]

Mon Jun 15

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:58 PM

Re: Poll: The next bubble?

I recently saw a rather eye-opening episode of Vice, where it was revealed that most bubbles are discovered amid horrific working conditions. In January 2015, alone, for example, over 94% of bubbles were spotted by unpaid white males, transfixed for [more]

Sun May 31

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:11 AM

Re: I knew Roark was up to something

Come on. Jokes need at least a veneer of realism to work. A self-satisfied investment geek building an entire money management empire, then pivoting it into the salacious world of hamburger marketing just to jump a couple of weight classes in the [more]

Tue May 19

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:05 AM

Re: ...And it feels so good

How exactly are you versed in the history of Garfinckel's, Brooks Brothers, Miller & Rhodes? Through newspapers and magazines from that period? Annual reports? Books (and if so, specifically which ones)? Is this part of a systematic research [more]

Mon May 18

NL

Boards Post

howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:31 PM

...And it feels so good

This is the Motley Fool Deranged Monkey Board, also known as the online, retail prequel to True Detective, and what you get here is the kind of Merger Monday color you will most assuredly not get on CNBC, the WSJ, or Bloomberg, and perhaps not [more]

Sat May 16

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:53 AM

Re: Poll: Tale of a hypothetical kitty

So you know this wasn't some sort of gotcha poll with a wrong answer, since you're allowed to describe Initech pretty much however you please. But the results so far were nicely split, with a small majority who think it is basically a sad story, 100% [more]

Fri May 15

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:51 AM

Re: Poll: Tale of a hypothetical kitty

I'm putting the footnotes in a separate post because I've noticed that this site sometimes makes changes such that the text above created polls eventually disappears.

Initech Corp. goes public for $10 a share with 10 million total shares [more]

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Boards Post

howardroark polled the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:38 AM

Poll: Tale of a hypothetical kitty

Initech Corp. goes public for $10 a share with 10 million total shares outstanding, for a valuation of $100 million. It provides software consulting for apps that want to accept bitcoin micropayments. Business explodes when it becomes clear that [more]

Wed May 13

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:48 PM

Re: Pop Quiz

So that means CACC runs a good business (defined as return on equity-adjusted-by-allowance-for-losses) ? I am just going by one of the comps in the VIC writeup.

CACC definitely has produced legitimately high returns on equity in [more]

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