howardroark’s Activity

Mon Jan 19

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:33 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

if you can point (or privately forward) any of the peg-break-RMB theses you have seen, that would be great

Hi Ben, they're generally part of fund letters and updates, which etiquette generally says don't forward without permission. [more]

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:39 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

Not really. Denmark seems to know what they are doing, in this regard, unlike the Swiss. And they've been doing it since 1982.

Also DKK is such a tiny part of FX trading, < 1%.


I still can't see HKD removing their peg.
[more]

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:35 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

Does anyone see any other de-pegging likely around the world?

I think this is one of the most fun questions in the universe that isn't about the universe, and I think I would rather get one of these right (without getting paid) than [more]

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:07 AM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

Someone saw de-pegging coming the day before it happened as FXCM stock dropped 11% that day on four times average volume.

Heh. FXCM reported weak December #s after the bell on Tuesday and reduced guidance.

Sun Jan 18

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:18 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

The Canadian dollar also swings from about 10% over the USD to about 35% under, currently at about the middle of that range and roughly in line with purchasing power parity. No peg, no targets. Isn't this a simpler, more sensible alternative to a [more]

Sat Jan 17

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:24 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

Although pundits report CHF move in a negative light (and for involved traders, yes) isn't is a good thing for the markets to experience hard stressors now and then? Wakes everyone up; risk isn't risk-free, surprise!

I'll abstain on [more]

Fri Jan 9

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:17 PM

Re: price anchoring

Very i know it is a slippery slope/two-edged sword, but does anyone have practical suggestions on how to overcome/alleviate this bias? trades in smaller sizes?

Very good question, wish I had a very good answer. The mini-trade method [more]

Tue Dec 30

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:49 AM

Re: Revisiting the Place Your Bets thread

I’m not sure how much work was put into the various estimates but I’m surprised how close the mean is to what I would argue Hussman would put as a reversionist answer (at least using today's numbers). Using a mean forward operating margin [more]

Thu Dec 25

NL

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howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:30 AM

Re: Wandering . . .

True story. Around thirteen years ago I was a rather young, rather bad, lawyer. A lottery ticket fell into my lap, but I was naturally suspicious. Maybe just rip it up? I sought advice from a few unorthodox places, including from one or two people [more]

Tue Dec 23

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:48 PM

Re: Peter Lynch - One Up - On P/E Ratio

May I inquire how you handle liquidity risk?

Depends on lots of contextual factors. One is my own duration mismatch. The more worried I was about investors pulling the more I would charge myself for illiquidity. For PA type operations [more]

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:24 PM

Re: Peter Lynch - One Up - On P/E Ratio

No checklist -- same with pretty much everyone I speak to. In my early days my default position size was 8-15%, and I wouldn't work on anything I didn't want to make that big. Now I will buy smaller positions sometimes, when I am generally unsure, [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:05 PM

Re: Peter Lynch - One Up - On P/E Ratio

Naj, one day I'd like to explore your position size methodology (again)

Hey pal, this ain't grindr. Let's keep it professional.

Sun Dec 21

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:57 PM

Re: Oil Play for Dummies

My advice: Don't ask how interest rates affect equity valuations. Ask what factors affects both interest rates and equity valuations. Time preference shifting toward today from tomorrow? Higher real rates, lower equity prices. Risk spreads [more]

Thu Dec 18

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:57 PM

Re: off-hand remark

You know you are closer rather than farther to retirement when, in days when you are make a pile of money, you are incredibly down about it cause your relative 'numbers' suck now

The tyranny of the market is life cycle indifferent to [more]

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:31 PM

Re: Investing approach

Hey, you left out the annual lunches of Chik-fil-A with mall assistants from Chess King and Zubaz!

Dementia is setting in. I actually had to look up Zubaz.

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:26 PM

Re: Investing approach

Bloomberg. It's great for that stuff. If you have it you can use the TRA or COMP functions, for example. Make sure your dividend setting is correct.

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:02 AM

Re: Investing approach

With dividends, the CAGR from Buffett's original 1988 purchase is about 14% compared to 10.4% for the S&P. The 1989 follow on purchases are ~13% vs. 10% for the S&P. The last 1994 purchases of ~$300m to hit an even 100 million shares (at the [more]

Wed Dec 17

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:50 AM

Re: Russia

Germany monetary policy circa 1922, if not Number 1 on your list, should be Number 2

Out of time placeholder objection. I don't think they are 1 or 2 or 3 or 4. I also don't have an actual list.

Also, please tell gocanucks [more]

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:45 AM

Re: Russia

How many companies/equity has Putin (or his cronies) personally extracted from international minority equity holders?

Give the guy a chance. It's daunting enough to get through your long list of house arrests on all the exciting [more]

Tue Dec 16

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:37 PM

Re: Russia

but some of the micro-cap names I own (and loved on VIC) have far more questionable mgmt at the helm.

Than Putin? Does Kim Jong-Un run a pink sheets company? How many shares did you buy?

Turkey was under severe stress [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool
Board Posts 3115
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