howardroark’s Activity

Thu Mar 22

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:12 AM

Re: FB

“What I would really like to do is find a way to get our policies set in a way that reflects the values of the community, so I am not the one making those decisions,” Zuckerberg said. “I feel fundamentally uncomfortable sitting here in California [more]

Sat Mar 17

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:04 PM

Re: OT: Mind-blowing expectations

Any idea as to what the assumptions behind the GMV estimate are?

JPM math for 18e is:

1P Online : $128b
Whole Foods/B&M : $ 18b

3P Online Net : $ 43b
Blended Take Rate : 17%
3P GMV : [more]

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Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:04 PM

Re: OT: Mind-blowing expectations

All else being equal, investors currently believe that $1 of sales generated by Amazon is
roughly worth 7.5X more than $1 in sales generated by the list of "old" retailers above.


I just turned 120 and for 119 of those [more]

Sat Mar 10

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:45 PM

Re: MyCo

My mom once saw me drinking a single cup of tea and without further ado for my next birthday sent me enough boxes of tea to kill Mary Poppins. I think you just tea bagged me with Michael Woodford, so to speak. We’re moonwalking in opposite directions [more]

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Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:38 AM

Re: MyCo

So why not just get rid of thinking
about all of that and simplify the whole situation down to say the Fed Funds target?


Because interest rate centrism is like a virus in the minds of otherwise healthy humans. It makes seemingly [more]

Thu Mar 8

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:36 AM

Re: MyCo

A bit more specific question would be: do you think a constant money multiplier assumption is
sufficient for a boiled down model? My (possibly incorrect) interpretation of the MyCo model is that
the answer to the latter is yes (but then,
[more]

Wed Mar 7

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:40 AM

Re: MyCo

In the above I am effectively pointing out two salient features of monetary systems

I can see you mean well and are probably mortally convinced of the salience of these features. But I've had enough conversations with Randall [more]

Thu Mar 1

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:02 PM

Re: MyCo

Okay, since someone partly figured out the metaphor (nicely done), this seems like a good time to explain what the hell I'm trying to do here. The point of this was not a guessing game charade, but to try to lay out a framework for thinking that [more]

Wed Feb 28

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:21 PM

Re: MyCo

Wow. Okay, I will be back later when I have a little more time but I just skimmed the thread and see that I may as well just throw Part 3 out there now.

MyCo Part III: Debt

In Part I, I mentioned that MyCo did have some debt [more]

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:14 AM

Re: MyCo

Okay, maybe not the crushing deluge of entries I was imagining, but I'll push the ball a little further. thanks for those who humored me with responses, especially ET's good summary of some of the uniquely strange aspects of the story. A few [more]

Tue Feb 27

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:10 PM

Re: MyCo

Clarifying questions: Does this section mean that shareholders of the A shares are guaranteed a small negative annual real return? And by what mechanism is MYCO able to accomplish this?

so I'm not sure here what they would be [more]

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Boards Post

howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:41 AM

MyCo

MyCo, Part 1

Imagine an unusual company. MyCo is in the reviews businesses. It initially made its mark by using machine learning to develop its proprietary MYCO score, which quickly toppled Fair Isaac’s dominant standard for credit ratings. [more]

Mon Feb 5

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:47 AM

Re: Do you pay someone to manage money?

The first level theory on indexing seems to be that with more people not even trying to outperform the index, it should be easier for active to outperform. That hasn't happened, and so the second level theory seems to be that with more people [more]

Sat Feb 3

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:00 AM

Re: Do you pay someone to manage money?

Well, I posted some of my ideas and engaged other members on the VIC threads, which lead to an invitation for an interview with Joel Greenblatt. I had no doubt that I would bomb in any personal interview and it would soon be discovered that I was [more]

Sun Oct 22

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 9:54 AM

Re: Accounting question

You’re right this is unusual. Most likely at some point in the year they were constantly rolling over their marketable securities in commercial paper or something very short term (think of 40mm or whatever “maturing” every week for a few months) and [more]

Tue Oct 17

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 11:07 AM

Re: question

I'm going to confess my ignorance and say I've never heard of a physical investor kit. I guess this is the leave-behinds from IR?

lemme break it down for you. while you spent the 80s shut off in the trop's daycare facility [more]

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Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Last RoundUp board. 8:26 AM

Re: question

thanks very much Ben. I broke my only personal commandment last night and spent a lot of time chatting with various customer service reps. There is actually a big dog in the share-gift business that resulted from the merger of Sparkgift into [more]

Mon Oct 16

NL

Boards Post

howardroark posted to the Last RoundUp board. 4:20 PM

question

has anyone here ever bought shares as a gift to a kid (not yours)? if so, any recommendations on the best/easiest path (assume no existing custodial brokerage account exists)?

Mon Oct 9

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:44 AM

Re: Stock prices: justified by low interest rate

If he meant the first, then the statement is almost entirely wrong.
A lower price for beans doesn't make Intel worth more. The future real total return is unchanged thereby.


This is mostly semantic, but I think it's you [more]

Fri Sep 29

NL

Boards Post

howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:06 PM

Re: OT: Tilson closing hedge fund

Cathay and East West are the stars and I have about 40% of my net worth in them, along with Berkshire and AJ Gallagher that's 90% of me. They have incredibly low expenses as the net interest income, the so-called "efficiency ratios" [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool
Board Posts 3199
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