howardroark’s Activity

Sat Apr 18

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:37 AM

Re: Druck

People can be tough to please. When companies buy back shares while simultaneously issuing them to employees, the capital return police complain about running in place. But when companies buy back shares and actually reduce sharecount, the capital [more]

Sat Mar 21

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:04 PM

Re: Blarney Bubble

What both posts reminded me of is the question of how valuable it is to be hedged against a bubble, and the related question of what defines a bubble. I think most would agree that a necessary condition for a bubble is something like "prices [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:35 PM

Re: Blarney Bubble

*let's say that, for whatever reason, you (not you, but hypothetical me) used to buy stocks (who shall remained not named) at 15x EA. Would you now accept 20x for the same scenario? Assume you 1) pick stocks reasonably well over a long period of [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:24 PM

Re: Blarney Bubble

From the subject of your post, I thought you meant this

I was thinking more along the lines of this:

[more]

Fri Mar 20

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howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:28 PM

Blarney Bubble

Fund Manager John Hussman on twitter:

Fascinating that people blame the collapse in 1937 on the Fed tightening too early, but wholly ignore the bubble then.

Beneath is a chart showing a zig-zagging century of US market [more]

Thu Feb 5

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:38 PM

Re: A Few Updates - Sears & Roebuck Debt

Isn't it just that SRAC runs the risk of getting jumped in line by a new secured debt raise against the sub RE while the Holdco debt has a somewhat more protected position with a secured 2nd lien against opco inventory below the revolver? Seriously [more]

Mon Jan 19

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:33 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

if you can point (or privately forward) any of the peg-break-RMB theses you have seen, that would be great

Hi Ben, they're generally part of fund letters and updates, which etiquette generally says don't forward without permission. [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:39 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

Not really. Denmark seems to know what they are doing, in this regard, unlike the Swiss. And they've been doing it since 1982.

Also DKK is such a tiny part of FX trading, < 1%.


I still can't see HKD removing their peg.
[more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:35 PM

Re: Black Swan is a Swiss Bird?

Does anyone see any other de-pegging likely around the world?

I think this is one of the most fun questions in the universe that isn't about the universe, and I think I would rather get one of these right (without getting paid) than [more]

Fri Jan 9

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:17 PM

Re: price anchoring

Very i know it is a slippery slope/two-edged sword, but does anyone have practical suggestions on how to overcome/alleviate this bias? trades in smaller sizes?

Very good question, wish I had a very good answer. The mini-trade method [more]

Thu Dec 25

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howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:30 AM

Re: Wandering . . .

True story. Around thirteen years ago I was a rather young, rather bad, lawyer. A lottery ticket fell into my lap, but I was naturally suspicious. Maybe just rip it up? I sought advice from a few unorthodox places, including from one or two people [more]

Tue Dec 23

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:24 PM

Re: Peter Lynch - One Up - On P/E Ratio

No checklist -- same with pretty much everyone I speak to. In my early days my default position size was 8-15%, and I wouldn't work on anything I didn't want to make that big. Now I will buy smaller positions sometimes, when I am generally unsure, [more]

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