howardroark’s Activity

Wed Aug 19

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:57 PM

Re: Preposterous Fact

it seems like Manny, Moe and Jack also overlooked the secret fairy dust. looks like from their 2000 low of around $3.50, they've only managed a 230% gain. i've never followed this sector, why did PBY turn into an unfortunate fourth while the [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:54 AM

Re: Preposterous Fact

Since share repurchases significantly boosted its EPS growth since 2000, I wonder whether the 202x current year earnings applies to AutoZone.

To a large degree (50%?) AXO required moderate P/Es combined with high return on capital over
[more]

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howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:16 AM

Re: Thoughts on BRK selling NOV low

Lovely line from Forbes in April: "In less than a decade, Amazon has grown AWS into a $5 billion business that is still growing at 50%.
Yet even more impressive—and strangely unnoticed—is that IBM cloud services is now a $7.7 billion
[more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:55 AM

Re: Preposterous Fact

How about genuine parts (GPC)? NAPA. Similar story I would guess.

I don't know NAPA's numbers and you can't use GPC stock as a proxy (which has done well but nowhere near the big three above), because it only owns around 1000 of the [more]

Tue Aug 18

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howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:11 PM

Preposterous Fact

AZO, ORLY and AAP have all generated between 25.5% and 26% CAGRS over the last fifteen years. Those are three 32 baggers in one rather mundane business. During that time the S&P's CAGR was 4.2%, which is less than a two bagger.

If you [more]

Tue Aug 4

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:58 PM

Re: the NFL system of Justice

Haters gonna hate. how can they not when they watch their own pathetic teams filled with dumba*s blowing up his fingers with fireworks or driving DUI @ 143 MPH with a loaded gun/kid in backseat.<\i>

yeah, I mean what's with these
[more]

Sat Jul 25

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howardroark replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:13 AM

Re: ibm revenue collapse

Imagine a steady state Amazon with Walmart's current net profit of about $1 for every $30 in sales.
Let's say that they hit this steady state ten years from now, and have twice the revenue they do now.
That would put revenue at about
[more]

Fri Jul 24

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:06 PM

Re: That warm fuzzy feeling...

Yeah they have both sets, which seem to be taken directly from Silverblatt. Bloomberg & Factset are a little higher for whatever reason.

[more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:49 PM

Re: That warm fuzzy feeling...

3) Forward Op EPS one year ahead is $111.xx (from a 3rd party source, but I think accurate), I don't have forward GAAP, but traditionally 5-15% lighter.

Factset, Bloomberg and the "official" [more]

Thu Jul 16

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:28 PM

Re: Nope

But didn't Redbox have a lot more to do with the demise of the video rental stores than Netflix? Redbox has gone from not much in 2005 to $2b in revenue last year.

Redbox is definitely part of the longer story , but I think Netflix [more]

Wed Jul 15

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:49 PM

Re: Nope

did everything go poof with the Hollywood deal? wasn't the rationale to get more scale and into gaming rental?

In retrospect the Hollywood deal was more like sprinting toward the lion; they were food either way. But before the [more]

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howardroark posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:03 PM

Nope

Netflix just passed 65 million subs. It has 41 million streaming subs in the US alone, and US streaming revenues are running over $4 billion a year. I always liked Reed Hastings, but I would never have predicted they'd be able to glide so seamlessly [more]

Sun Jul 12

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:36 AM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

So the 20 million unvested RSUs become 5.2 million extra shares by virtue of the fact that about 3/4 of the RSUs are for future work, which will be charged as an expense when the work gets done.

This is closer than the previous two [more]

Fri Jul 10

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:25 PM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

I don't know what roark meant. Perhaps he misread the line for 'Restricted stock units and other contingently issuable shares' (1.045 million shares, added to basic shares outstanding, presumably because this is the part of the RSU grant for which [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:36 PM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

to be clear, does that mean I am 'safe' using Goog's reported Q1 diluted share count or ought I add another ~20m or so to the total?

If you want to include all the RSUs already granted less GOOG's expected forfeiture rate (which is [more]

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:07 PM

Re: GOOG's numbers - help? Correct way to view

*does the diluted share account already include unvested RSUs?

Yeah these rules are complex and annoying. Unvested RSUs are included in the denominator, but they are adjusted (downward) via the Treasury Method. You probably know that [more]

Sun Jun 28

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:41 AM

Re: Greece?

Would anyone care to explain the situation in Greece? It seems like things are coming to a head, but I don't really understand it or what it might mean for investors. Is there the potential for another crisis?

Greece has debt coming [more]

Tue Jun 16

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:58 PM

Re: Poll: The next bubble?

last post - they are! Part of Burlington Northern - or used to be - plastered on the 2011 10K

These are famous bonds. They were one of the bonds that were originally payable in gold or dollars at the lender's choice, but then Congress [more]

Mon Jun 15

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:58 PM

Re: Poll: The next bubble?

I recently saw a rather eye-opening episode of Vice, where it was revealed that most bubbles are discovered amid horrific working conditions. In January 2015, alone, for example, over 94% of bubbles were spotted by unpaid white males, transfixed for [more]

Sun May 31

NL

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howardroark replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:11 AM

Re: I knew Roark was up to something

Come on. Jokes need at least a veneer of realism to work. A self-satisfied investment geek building an entire money management empire, then pivoting it into the salacious world of hamburger marketing just to jump a couple of weight classes in the [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool
Board Posts 3150
Recs Received 22267
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Threads Started 483
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Very First Post MONT sellling (6/22/1998)
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