gocanucks

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:58 AM

Re: PIR

I don't get this with PIR. Who was industry? KIRK had been strong but they aren't a true compare. I mean, I like PIR, but you find this stuff everywhere.


home furnishing. as you recall, the whole industry was decimated by [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:11 AM

Re: PIR

this is from memory, so numbers could be a bit off.

i studied PIR in some detail around May 2009. Stock was around $3 then. I liked what mgmt was doing, but I stopped after building a model. Gross margin was improving big time thanks to less [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:53 PM

Re: Wednesday

MDC, seems like there are so many people point to that 1600 level as support, and last two weeks there were so many eager dip buyers intra-day that it made a bear like me want to vomit/capitulate.

two weeks ago, the theme was goldilock [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:20 PM

Re: shld

speaking of change, any retailers you looked at recently that changed for the better? seems like a few of them said biz picked up in April.

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:35 AM

Re: Op, Op, Op, Op, Oppa Buffett Style

thanks ben and naj.


PS. Today's predicted nominal return is just under 4%

So, in 1974 you had a real return of ~4%, and as you note that was a great time to buy.

In March the PCE was minus 0.1% and in April the CPI [more]

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gocanucks posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:46 AM

shld

not sure if anyone still follows the name. Ugly quarter last night, as the core is crumbling. ESL appeared on the call first time ever, and I found him insightful and thoughtful (duh) -- whoever accuses ESL of not being a retail guy is just nuts. [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:01 AM

Re: Op, Op, Op, Op, Oppa Buffett Style

my view is that we need to take into account of BRK's size/return requirement before we read too much.

the better question may be what will a younger/freer/hungrier WEB do? Snippets from the partnership letters/Lowenstein book provide some [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:16 PM

Re: aapl/tech/market

At 14.4x CY13 #s, the market is hardly expensive, and with rising dividends. Something like 68% of firms are beating their EarnEstm so far.


i think the median PE is much higher. we all know earning beats is a game. CY [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:02 PM

Re: aapl/tech/market

cmon. i am obviously not talking about FY '13. stock is discounting future/normalized EPS. it is the trajectory that is worrisome.

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:07 AM

Re: aapl/tech/market

Naj, don't get me wrong as I am in the same camp, but i sense a shift in your thesis, which is always dangerous, especially since it is a big position.

I threw out the $35 EPS in another thread earlier, and it now looks buy-side number is [more]

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gocanucks posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:49 AM

aapl/tech/market

i guess aapl's Q is the worst kept secret, especially after CRUS's guidance. while bulls hope all bad news is in the stock by now, i am nervous that the downward slide may be just as pronounced as the upside surprises AAPL produced. remember when [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:32 AM

Re: Kyle Bass

hmm, i wonder how much Bass just made today and will make in weeks/months to come. has it ever happened that a developed country saw its 10 year yield double in one day???

is this the inflection point? i was amazed JGB actually went up [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:20 PM

Re: How to play the top

just for fun, i put together a list of 20 large cap stock "leaders". S&P is at all time high. All these stocks have been on a relentless 3-year climb with better relative performance with shallow pullback vs. the market, and all are [more]

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gocanucks posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:46 PM

How to play the top

I have been a bear for a while, and needless to say it has been painful and frustrating. While re-reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", I realized how poor my approach/timing/instrument from the short side has been. Below is the [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:26 PM

Re: Steve Wynn is the best

alternatively, he could have sold it to Cohen for $139m, put the money in SAC, and probably got more than a double over 7 years...

opportunity cost. :)

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:00 PM

Re: Place Your Bets

i find it interesting that so many bears have capitulated recently. Adam Parker. Roubini. Rosenberg. Heck, even Hussman is starting to hedge himself by suggesting the market could march higher.

hedge funds are at/near high end of net [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:39 PM

Re: Place Your Bets

i will do the exercise in a slightly different way. i don't know if Hussman will be right that margins are 60% too high, but i think directionally it has to be right.

Among the major sectors in S&P, I am 90% certain that margins for [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:15 AM

Re: OT: Expeditors (EXPD)

great post.

i have followed the company for some yeras now and luckily met Pete Rose a couple of times. i am surprised EXPD did not make the cut in Outsiders, as it seems to fit that profile to a T.

having said that, i do worry a [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:54 AM

Re: Soap Opera at Tessera

i posted about TSRA last year. wrote puts on it and made very modest money. i thought the downside is fairly secure given the cash and royalty payment, but upside was murky given mgmt's intention.

is it me or we are definitely seeing more [more]

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gocanucks replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:41 AM

Re: ARO goes like HOTT?

yeah, that was the same interview i read.

i am starting to wonder if Malone has fired the first couple of bullets in a new round of industry consolidation. The US pay TV seems ripe for consolidation -- no subscriber growth, escalating [more]