glassbd86’s Activity

Wed Nov 30


Watercooler Post

glassbd86 wrote 7:59 PM

So a few years ago, I looked at the economy and invested in companies that served as macro plays. Companies like Ford, LCAV, etc. My time horizon was long and I thought recovery would happen. I still own Ford and it's a heavy part of my portfolio, and I would buy more if it wasn't. However, I think recovery is not happening and policymakers do not understand the fundamentals of what will induce economic recovery. While I still haven't abandoned my philosophy of investing rather than trading, I've been allocating more and more funds for short term trading plays. Currently, I've been trying to do a bit of "good news / bad news" arbitrage. The latest happened in the last couple days - 7% swings on Europe seems overblown. Essentially, central bankers gave passengers on the titanic larger buckets to bail themselves out. That's fine if all you have is a rowboat worth of problems, but doesn't do a damn in the grand scheme of things. I leapt into one of the levered VIX ETFs because that seems like a profitable metric of macro assumptions. The value investor in me cringes, because I'm now fully in the world of derivatives, and not linked to any fundamental economic value, but the strategy has been wildly profitable in the past and serves as a nice cash generator during this yo-yo period.

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