elcid24’s Activity

Yesterday

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

elcid24 commented on TMFtheEdge's pitch for CTSH. 10:25 AM

"Loads of [goodwill], no debt" CTSH announced a $3B dollar acquisition a while back.

Wed Sep 24

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about AGCO Corp (AGCO) . 1:18 PM

AGCO Outperform

The week of Nov 12, 2010, AGCO shares closed the week at $45/share. Fast forward nearly 4 years and shares are trading at $45/share. The difference is that book equity in 2010 was about $2.6B; now book value is over $4B and the outstanding share [more]

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 1:18 PM

AGCO Corp (AGCO) will Outperform the S&P 500

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

elcid24 commented on elcid24's pitch for GGB. 11:43 AM

Just as a side note with this company - when you're investing in companies that are in a secular downtrends, it can feel like the company is in a perpetual state of zero returns. But an investment right now is not the same as an investment in 2011, [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (BAGL) . 4:21 AM

BAGL Outperform

This has been in Einhorn's portfolio for a while. Not a fast growing or flashy coffee spot, but people still frequent the restaurants. Pre-tax earnings are about $22M per year, and at a Market Cap of $235M, it's only trading at about 11x pre-tax [more]

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 4:21 AM

Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. (BAGL) will Outperform the S&P 500

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about EXCO Resources, Inc. (XCO) . 4:12 AM

XCO Outperform

Following Ross, Watsa, and Marks into this one. It's saddled with debt, but with annual cash flows of +$350M per year, I think the value of the equity - $1.1B - is just too cheap. Using 2013 EBITDA, the company is trading at a 7.0x EV to EBITDA [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about UNUM GROUP (UNM) . 4:05 AM

UNM Outperform

PE is about 10, ROE is about 10%, and the company is trading right around book value. I doubt it's going to create huge returns, but it should beat the market over the next few years. It has a history of trading below book value - in 2012 the stock [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about Ingles Markets, Inc. (IMKTA) . 3:57 AM

IMKTA Outperform

This is a nice, boring little grocer. TTM Pre-Tax earnings are $75M. 2012 Pre-Tax earnings were $67M. ROE is starting to heat up - over the past 3 years ROE has hovered around 8-9%, but ROE the past few quarters has risen to about 12-13%. If the [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about Gerdau S.A. (ADR) (GGB) . 3:42 AM

GGB Outperform

Over the past decade, ROE has ranged from 5% to about 40%, with ROE currently around 6%. Net income has ranged from $650M to about $2B. Current cash flows check in around $1.8B and net income is currently around $800M. The Market Cap is $8.7B. Gerdau [more]

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 2:32 AM

Gerdau S.A. (ADR) (GGB) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 2:28 AM

Ingles Markets, Inc. (IMKTA) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 2:12 AM

UNUM GROUP (UNM) will Outperform the S&P 500

Mon Sep 22

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 4:03 PM

EXCO Resources, Inc. (XCO) will Outperform the S&P 500

CAPS Outperform Pitch

elcid24 wrote about Tesco (TSCDY) . 10:22 AM

TSCDY Outperform

Pre-Tax income the past couple years has come in around $3.5B. Historically, pre-tax income was even higher ($4-6B), though I'm not sure things will ever get back to that level. Even so, the company is trading around 8x pre-tax earnings - on [more]

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 10:22 AM

Tesco (TSCDY) will Outperform the S&P 500

Sun Sep 21

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 1:28 PM

Transocean, Inc. (RIG) will Outperform the S&P 500

Mon Sep 8

Blog Comment

elcid24 commented on Teacherman1's blog post. 1:27 PM

Buying opportunities on mis-information?

XCO...

Howard Marks owns 45MM shares (makes up 10% of his portfolio) and Prem Watsa owns 18MM shares (makes up 7% of his portfolio).  You're in good company buying XCO at these levels - I think the average

[more]

Fri Sep 5

Blog Comment

elcid24 commented on vistacarolina's blog post. 12:00 PM

Priceline

Well, just in 2014 alone, PCLN has gone from 1100 to 1375 to 1100 to 1300 to 1200 to 1325 and now back to 1185.

It's "sinking like a rock" because that's what stocks do.  They

[more]

Wed Aug 27

Caps Pick

elcid24 made a pick in CAPS. 3:12 AM

Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF) will Outperform the S&P 500
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