elann’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:13 PM

Re: ot: low risk safe companies

As a random example
http://www.backtest.org/SBsftE1XpriG0XcesDpriT20Xtr4wB10Xtr1......
Safety 1, lowish P/E, seriously bad momentum.
It's not a super high
[more]

Fri Aug 28

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:14 PM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

One thing that troubled me is that a balanced portfolio (60/40 80/20 or 50/50 or whatever) that is kept in balance is well reported to be a superb non-active strategy all by itself. The concern about "selling stocks in a large downturn" [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:55 AM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

Um, this is EXACTLY a fixed percentage of the portfolio, and thus goes up and down with the market. The only twist is that the percentage is not fixed at (typically) 4%, but starts at 3.125% (age 65) and ramps up to 8.8% (age 90).

So [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:52 AM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

Yes, this is the problem.

One year you take $60,000,
the next year you get $45,000,
the next year you get $30,000.
Oh, and then the 4th year you get $65,000.
What's not to like? Who wouldn't be okay with their income
[more]

Thu Aug 27

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:28 PM

Re: Who Ate Joe’s Retirement Money

The problem occurs because the w/d is a constant dollar amount, regardless of the gyrations of the market.

To which the answer is quite self evident. Nobody says the withdrawal has to be a constant dollar amount. The IRS has a pretty [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:11 AM

Re: OT Jeff Cohen’s book, “Put Optio

Is the strike price impacted by dividends? e.g. the strike price is $35 and then a 50 cent dividend is distributed prior to the expiry date, does that change the strike price?

No. Options don't earn dividends.

If a January [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:05 AM

Re: OT Jeff Cohen’s book, “Put Optio

Very interesting. I have some questions, if you don't mind.

VL: PEG, SCREAMERS, Fundamentals, CashCowROE, RRS126+0.5sigma

That's a surprising choice of screens. Some of them are very volatile and high turnover. Not what I'd [more]

Wed Aug 26

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:31 PM

Re: 99 day rule negative this morning

Instead of cash, why not go to SH?

Mainly because I've come to the conclusion that shorting is really really hard and also a good way to have your head handed to you occasionally.


SH is a very easy way to short the S&P. [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:16 PM

Re: OT Jeff Cohen’s book, “Put Optio

Perhaps your calculations are a bit off. Take the Jan17 CBI 40 strikes for the $8.50 bid as a wild example. The total return is 26.5% based on your cash backing the puts ($31.50) and CAGR is 18.25% based on the 513 days to [more]

Tue Aug 25

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:51 PM

Re: RSP Question

Buy RSP, sell the individual stocks. Wait an hour.

Buy RSP, sell SPY short. Not a perfect hedge but much easier than selling 500 individual stocks short.

Elan

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:16 PM

Re: OT Jeff Cohen’s book, “Put Optio

I bought Cohen's book last week and I've just finished reading it. Then I went poking around looking for put writing opportunities that fit the book's and Jim's recommendations. I can't seem to find any.

The idea as I understand it is to [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:04 PM

Re: 99 day rule negative this morning

If you are correct, then all retirement date and allocation type mutual funds are dismissed, not to mention straight up fixed income outright.

A few questions...

Would you ever allocate to fixed income? And if so, when? 10 year
[more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:08 AM

Re: $NAHL

But, you know what doesn't make any sense? The Dow falling 1000 points. Especially after a string of down 400-500-600 days. There's little (perhaps, no) economic reason for that drop. It seems to me that what's going on is sheer unreasoning [more]

Mon Aug 24

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:51 PM

Re: $NAHL

I've closed my short futures positions.

Did some buying today...


I think that qualifies as trying to catch a falling knife.

Elan

Sun Aug 23

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Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:39 PM

Re: 99 day rule negative this morning

I think it is important that people feel they can post without facing personal attacks. I believe that one very good poster stopped posting soon after a big argument. Of course, I can't prove cause and effect.

I don't think Ray is [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:19 PM

Re: Recent BCC Signals

Here are the recent Bear Catcher Combined signals as taken from GTR1 using GTR1 Helper. No further slippage in the signals even following such a painful (for me at least) week.

Larry


Date Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
20150821 [more]

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elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:39 AM

Arezi Ratio for Aug 24


* 8/3 8/10 8/17 8/24/15
S&P 500 Index 2103.84 2077.57 2091.54 1970.89
Trailing 12 month PE 21.63 21.90 22.09 20.70
Trail Earnings yield 4.62% 4.57% 4.53% 4.83%
Forward 12 month PE 18.01 17.79 17.93 16.87
Fwd [more]

Sat Aug 22

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Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:51 PM

Re: 99 day rule negative this morning

I was out of the market - mostly - from 2005 to 2008 as well.
I didn't miss anything during that time period either.


From start of 2005 to end of 2008 my MI portfolio gained about 20%. I wouldn't have wanted to miss out on that. [more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:33 PM

Re: 99 day rule negative this morning

And one should probably be prepared/positioned more for a rather poor decade of equity returns than for an outstanding one.
What does this mean? What is this preparation that one can make? It's not like preparing for a Zombie Apocalypse; for
[more]

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elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:38 PM

Re: 99 day rule negative this morning

But if, as seems fairly likely, the next recession two or three years down the road causes a 40-50% drawdown, it's unlikely that market returns will be positive between now and then.

If you're going to be out of the market now because [more]

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