elann’s Activity

Mon Dec 22

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:24 AM

Re: .NDX & FTSE 100 Index

CBOE NASDAQ 100 INDEX (.NDX):
HI 3/31/2000 at 4275 and recent peak 11/28/2014 at 4160


Considering that $1 in 2000 is the equivalent of a current $1.38, due to inflation, the NDX still has a long way to go to break [more]

Sun Dec 21

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:53 AM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

Also, there's an even larger run up in bonds 1981 to 1999 as Paul Volker reduced rates to curb inflation.

Reverse reasoning. Volcker began dropping rates after 1981 after inflation had been successfully curbed. Once inflation dropped [more]

Sat Dec 20

NL

Boards Post

elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:41 AM

Arezi Ratio for Dec 22


* 12/1 12/8 12/15 12/22/14
S&P 500 Index 2067.56 2075.37 2002.33 2070.65
Trailing 12 month PE 19.08 19.12 18.41 18.99
Trail Earnings yield 5.24% 5.23% 5.43% 5.27%
Forward 12 month PE 15.48 15.51 14.93 15.41
Fwd [more]

Sat Dec 13

NL

Boards Post

elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:19 PM

Arezi Ratio for Dec 15


* 11/24 12/1 12/8 12/15/14
S&P 500 Index 2063.5 2067.56 2075.37 2002.33
Trailing 12 month PE 19.09 19.08 19.12 18.41
Trail Earnings yield 5.24% 5.24% 5.23% 5.43%
Forward 12 month PE 15.49 15.48 15.51 14.93
Fwd [more]

Tue Dec 9

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:23 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

What good does it do to worry about something that you have no idea when/where/how and even if it will happen? Seems very emotional to me at least.

Seems very rational to me. I got a flu shot. I have home insurance, auto insurance, [more]

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:15 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

I know I keep asking this, but if TLT will suck, SPY is overvalued, GLD has its doubters, Cash has negative yield, then where is that marginal dollar of new IRA money going??? And no, productive farm, going on a cruise does not [more]

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:23 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

50% SPY 50% TLT re-balanced quarterly looks simple and very good.

Whatever results you saw, TLT *will not* repeat in the next ten years the performance it had in the last ten.

Elan

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:15 PM

Re: Rankings 8Dec2014

Should PIH_CSO_safe and _simple be identical for positions 1-25?

They are not meant to be identical, but it's possible.

Elan

Sat Dec 6

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:42 PM

Re: OT - A short story about how economics work

and the entire town goes to jail on tax evasion

Loan repayment is not income.

Elan

Fri Dec 5

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:59 PM

Re: OT: Crickets

My taxable account that I look at the most is up 30% since then.

I'd like to have what he's having.

Elan

Thu Dec 4

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:16 AM

Re: IRA options question

Been trading the 6/3 options strategy at Fidelity for at least ten years.

Elan

Tue Dec 2

NL

Boards Post

elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:48 PM

OT: Crickets

The market is near an all time high and we've got crickets on the board. I think that's a first.

Elan

Mon Dec 1

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:15 AM

Re: A problem for MI Screens

I think the problem for MI screens is that large cap stocks have outperformed smaller cap. The S&P index is up 14.5% TTM while the Russell 2000 is up only 7.50%. And actually if you look closely, the divergence began on July 1. Large caps have [more]

Sun Nov 30

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:53 PM

Re: question fidelity select and stocks screens?

If you are doing monthly screens and you have 5 Fidelity Sector funds or 5 stocks from screens on this board, how do you allocate funds the second month etc. to N months in future.

Do you adjust and reallocate so all stocks or Fidelity
[more]

Sat Nov 29

NL

Boards Post

elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:50 PM

Arezi Ratio for Dec 1


* 11/10 11/17 11/24 12/1/14
S&P 500 Index 2031.92 2039.82 2063.5 2067.56
Trailing 12 month PE 18.78 18.86 19.09 19.08
Trail Earnings yield 5.32% 5.30% 5.24% 5.24%
Forward 12 month PE 15.32 15.34 15.49 15.48
Fwd [more]

Sat Nov 22

NL

Boards Post

elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:55 PM

Arezi Ratio for Nov 24


* 11/3 11/10 11/17 11/24/14
S&P 500 Index 2018.05 2031.92 2039.82 2063.5
Trailing 12 month PE 18.45 18.78 18.86 19.09
Trail Earnings yield 5.42% 5.32% 5.30% 5.24%
Forward 12 month PE 15.25 15.32 15.34 15.49
Fwd [more]

Mon Nov 17

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Middle East Politics board. 5:23 PM

Re: Israeli provocations in Jerusalem

On the Palestinian side they see a gradual process of deterioration of Israel's international support.

===================================

It is happening more than gradually:

Sweden’s new government last month
[more]

Sun Nov 16

NL

Boards Post

elann posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:12 PM

Arezi Ratio for Nov 17


* 10/27 11/3 11/10 11/17/14
S&P 500 Index 1964.58 2018.05 2031.92 2039.82
Trailing 12 month PE 18.01 18.45 18.78 18.86
Trail Earnings yield 5.55% 5.42% 5.32% 5.30%
Forward 12 month PE 14.87 15.25 15.32 15.34
Fwd [more]

Fri Nov 14

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:44 PM

Re: OT: Value stock

Trouble is arising as the USA prints more and more dollars than are justified by economic conditions, so other nations are more and more reluctant to take them (or US treasury bonds). Russia dumped something like 140 billion in US treasuries early [more]

NL

Boards Post

elann replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:02 AM

Re: OT: Value stock

If you wanted to invest money today in one value stock for the long run, which would it be?

I'd probably need more information to provide my pick.


These are a few UTMA (custodial for minor) accounts. They are fairly small and [more]

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Board Posts 18753
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