earslookin’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Last RoundUp board. 6:01 PM

Re: tax rates?

The guy sounds like somebody like me.

In this case, you're right. Neither of you did your homework on this one.

You ask a bunch of questions -- expecting someone else to dive in and answer them
for you -- yet [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:54 AM

Re: tax rates?

I'm not sure how you can come to any other conclusion.

Here's the conclusion I came to after doing my own research...

The senator was just doing his job.

The candidate was inexplicably unprepared.

Sun Dec 10

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Real Estate Inv. Trusts: REITs board. 9:32 AM

Re: FPI from an new, old, MF reitster

Mike,

Much appreciate you bringing this to our attention.

I'm looking at the most recent Cash Flow Statement and seeing so far this year $16.9 million in
distributions. Cash from Ops was -$3.4 million.

What's [more]

Sat Dec 9

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:19 PM

Re: OT - Most Overvalued Stocks

StevesStox,

I'm in great sympathy with your view of this business. Yet if we believe the market is a
weighing machine, either we need to call in a repairman or we need to reassess how we value
a business like this [more]

Fri Dec 8

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 1:50 PM

Re: New position: NV5 Global (NVEE)

Are you concerned by anything you see at present on the BS?

The A/R change jumps out at you but they addressed that (and collections) in the most recent
call.

The CFO says their planning to pay off some debt. I'm [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:11 AM

Re: New position: NV5 Global (NVEE)

My history with NV5 is one day. I have no position in it, don't follow it, and it's a ten-foot
hurdle for me when looking for one-foot hurdles. I have no opinion on it, good or bad. That's
a long-winded way of saying the comments [more]

Wed Dec 6

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 5:39 PM

Re: Square's coming 4th quarter announcement

Back atcha, brittlerock. I very much appreciate the insights from your work experience as well
as your posts on China. Please keep sharing. Thanks!

Tue Dec 5

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 9:55 PM

Re: Square's coming 4th quarter announcement

Brittlerock,

Back to your questions...

You then referenced some letters between Square and the SEC, but didn't really explain what the
content was or why it was relevant to the specific discrepancy under discussion. I
[more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:59 AM

Re: Square's coming 4th quarter announcement

brittlerock,

Just saw your note, thanks. I don't have time this morning to fully respond, but will try to
get back to you later this afternoon or evening.

In the meantime, check out the link below. When Square did their IPO [more]

Mon Dec 4

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:15 PM

Re: Square's coming 4th quarter announcement

Here's the problem. It's GAAP nonsense again. As I understand it, GAAP forces Square to report, as
revenue, not only its cut of sales, but the amount it collects and has to pass through to Visa and
MasterCard. Being honest, Square
[more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:34 AM

Re: The market fell/gained today because...

Amen, Denny.

There's been a lot of research into this in behavioral economics. Experiments have shown that
when confronted with random events our brains are wired to find causes, not to understand
probabilities.

However, [more]

Sat Dec 2

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:09 PM

Re: My portfolio at the end of Nov 2017

Thanks for your response, Bear. I've so much enjoyed reading your posts on this board, on the REIT
board, and on other boards as well. They are well-written, and display a healthy mix of confidence
and introspection. That's why I [more]

Fri Dec 1

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:27 PM

Re: On the Law of Small Numbers

qazulight,

Kahneman is a psychologist, not a statistician. He has not been a participant in the debate you
are referencing. Much of his work has focused on identifying human errors that arise from rules
of thumb and biases (e.g., [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:42 AM

Re: On the Law of Small Numbers

But, this picking little points that miss the main idea is ridiculous.

HP,

My point to Bear was this, and ONLY this: Kahneman's work challenges the assumption that investors
behave rationally. His findings -- in [more]

Thu Nov 30

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:46 PM

Re: On the Law of Small Numbers

Saul,

1. Whether smoking is dangerous is a different question.

2. What does the draw of the first marble tell you -- sample of one?

3. Are you familiar with any drug study or scientific study that uses a sample of [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 7:13 PM

Re: Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016

but was your post to say that only a few people are able to consistently make money with this type
of stock picking method and sooner or later most on this board are going to get burned being invested
in the stocks that Bear (or others)
[more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 5:58 PM

Re: Bear's Portfolio at the end of 2016

Bear,

My brother died of lung cancer at the age of forty-five. He smoked a pack a day since he was
a teenager. The year after he died I would tell people who smoked that their chances of getting
lung cancer from smoking was very [more]

Tue Nov 28

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 6:59 PM

Re: Beating the market

Wouter,

Good write-up.

My .02...

* A mistake I made quite often when I was younger was generalizing from a small amount of data.
It may be true that you can beat the index, but one year's result -- a sample of one [more]

Sun Nov 26

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:11 PM

Re: My portfolio at the end of Nov 2017

Chris, there are other ways to choose an investing strategy. No watching required. What you're doing
here is avoiding a serious mistake -- letting an insufficient sample size fool you into making a bad
decision.

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:12 AM

Re: My portfolio at the end of Nov 2017

So is 28 years a long enough timeframe to draw a conclusion?

Chris,

I know you and others think my intent is to knock Saul. It's not. Saul has been quite successful
at investing and more important is a caring person. [more]

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