earslookin’s Activity

Today

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4 hours ago

Re: A Weighted* View

Those who do use timing signals, did likely get out before the market meltdown that began in Sept. 2008.

I'm having trouble understanding how to translate the Arezi Ratio and Fed Model and other indicators into action. For [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:39 PM

Re: CRTO numbers

A few comments..

** CRTO is benefitting from sales growth and margin expansion -- a powerful combination. The margin expansion isn't sustainable but while it lasts we'll see earnings grow much faster than sales.

** About 16% [more]

Thu Apr 23

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:36 PM

Re: Computing cumlative returns and CAGR

Not sure this math is correct, but from a client viewpoint, using a simple example:

Date $ Inflows $ Outflows $ Inv Gains End Bal XIRR TWRR Index Divisor
---------- --------- ---------- ----------- ------- ------- ------- ------ [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:37 AM

Re: Synchronoss, a new position.

I'd be curious if you could do the same calculation for WAB, since they also do acquisitions and use debt.

Hi Saul,

Here is WAB's cash flow over the last five years. They are funded almost entirely by cash from operations. [more]

Wed Apr 22

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:45 PM

Re: Computing cumlative returns and CAGR

Did you have cash coming in or going out during that time?

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:04 PM

Re: Synchronoss, a new position.

Here's another view, just .02...

For the last five years a good deal of their growth has come from issuing equity and from borrowing (before the Notes they used their line of credit).

Beginning Cash 89,924

Net cash [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:18 PM

Re: 20 yr BRK.A VS EWS&P500

If you are looking for a single ticker, then RSP is better than BRK.A. Here's a 58 year backtest, with friction!

I thought Jim already addressed this. For example, what happens if you use 19801231 to 20141231?

There's only [more]

Tue Apr 21

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Real Estate Inv. Trusts: REITs board. 2:04 PM

Re: A Personal Note

Relaying a message to Ralph from Tucker...

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8bBByJ1RunbMkNaNVJZVC0tdTA...

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:53 AM

Re: Defying Gravity

The devil is in the assumptions

Exactly.

Hewitt's book -- It's Earnings that Count -- was focused on quality of earnings. He introduced an approach for looking beyond the numbers reported in the financial statements in order [more]

Mon Apr 20

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 6:38 PM

Re: Defying Gravity

Here's a test suggested by Hewitt Heiserman Jr. for established companies with consistent quality earnings and that are more or less self-funding. Apple and Disney fit that description.

1. Decide the total return you want over X years. [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 7:40 AM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

Might it be summed up by saying if a companies debt is growing faster than earnings, proceed with a great deal of caution - or maybe just walk away?

From the original post...

BOTTOM LINE: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG are [more]

Sun Apr 19

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:38 PM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

you touched on this briefly earlier, but I wonder if you could say more about how this applies to companies like APPL and COST that are borrowing money to pay dividends (since they have big piles of cash overseas and would have to pay high taxes [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 1:28 PM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

Ears, You solved the riddle! That was the unwarranted assumption! ;) If you accept that he paid back the money at the end of the year, he did great. But your idiot cousin didn't just invest the cash to make 1% above the interest rate he was [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:22 PM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

At the end of the year he paid back what he borrowed.

Saul, what is he using to pay this back with? He used the debt to pay employees, buy raw materials, rent space, etc. That money is out the door. Where is he getting the cash to pay [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:57 AM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

He made 11% on YOUR money, the money you put in. You would have made 10%. Sure if he wanted to make 11% again next year, he'd have to borrow again next year, but so what, as long as he's making a positive return.

Hi Saul,

I [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 9:46 AM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

Hi Saul,

Thanks for your two responses. I'll try to address both here.

It seems to me after a careful reading that the point you are really making here is that Debt matters...What you seem to be saying is that taking on a lot of [more]

Fri Apr 17

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:17 AM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

The borrowed money is not capital, it's a liability.

Hi Denny,

While it's true that debt is a liability on the balance sheet, it's also true that it's a form of capital financing for the firm...

debt + equity = [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 9:13 AM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

Hi Rich,

Apologies again for trying to hurry through an example last night without giving it any thought. Here's one that I hope will give you a better idea. First I'm going to set up a base case. Then I'll show the effect of [more]

Thu Apr 16

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:35 PM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

Rich,

I wish I had an edit button. That debt example I just gave you is terrible. Please ignore it because it will only confuse things. I really need to use an example with incremental debt. I will try to come up with something in the [more]

NL

Boards Post

earslookin replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:22 PM

Re: Growth rates, P/E, and PEG

Hi Rich,

I am probably the worst investor in the world – well, no, actually there is one man in Marseilles...

C'est moi.

But if a company borrows money, isn’t the cost of that borrowing reflected (as interest and [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating < 20
Player Rank 0 out of 75215
Score 0.00
Score Change Today 0
Accuracy 0.00%
Active Picks 0
Total Picks 0
Best Pick ( 0)
Worst Pick ( 0)
Average Score per Pick 0.00
Charms Earned 0
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to earslookin’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool
Board Posts 1341
Recs Received 7633
People who have rec'd these posts 1349
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 21.20
Threads Started 277
Threads Started Percentage 20.66 %
Most Frequent Board Hidden Gems
Very First Post Re: IETC Defensive Income Statement for NEOG (1/12/2004)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 67.71 %
Show earslookin’s 10 Latest Posts