derfahrer’s Activity

Wed May 14

NL

Boards Post

derfahrer replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:09 PM

Re: Another datapoint for soon-to-be bear market

>> Really??

ok, my response was perhaps a bit harsh. I was assuming you were making a statement that being above the MA for 77 weeks was a bullish (or bearish) indication ... which was not your intent

NL

Boards Post

derfahrer replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:18 AM

Re: Another datapoint for soon-to-be bear market

> You are looking at it to predict the upcoming forward returns.

actually, I wasn't.

If it was just an 'interesting bit of fluff' then why bother posting?

Tue May 13

NL

Boards Post

derfahrer replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:03 PM

Re: Another datapoint for soon-to-be bear market?

> Or maybe not. Friday was the 77'th consecutive week of the S&P500
> being above its 43 week (10 month) SMA.

This would appear to be a bit of a mixed bag. Looking at all occurrences since 1930 (I used 75 weeks or more above 43 [more]

Wed May 7

NL

Boards Post

derfahrer replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:14 AM

Re: NH/NL signal crossover

I've run a number of tests on this recently, and came to some conclusions: how close you get to Buy&Hold depends on how many of the "big" events you include in the test dates. There are many cases where your re-entry is higher than your [more]

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