commoncents33’s Activity

Yesterday

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:24 AM

Re: 5 ticket punch card, bis

Kelly showed that it's better to bet on a 90% probability of a 10% return than on a 70% probability of a 20% return.



This is simply wrong.

The expected value in the second instance is 55% better than the [more]

Mon Apr 7

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:00 AM

Re: Buffett's Fortune article on long-term, high

Notably absent from the list: Berkshire Hathaway.

So what do we make of that??

Not too long ago, Mungofitch teased us with a discussion about Berkshire's low ROE, but never gave an "answer" as to why.

In light of [more]

Tue Apr 1

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:29 AM

Re: I am not recommending Amazon...

Maybe someday when Amazon...


It's so easy to forget all about the time-value of money when one engages in such "investing" fairy tales.

Every year that passes (and many have passed so far, with no end in sight) [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:26 AM

Re: I am not recommending Amazon...

And AAPL generated $35 billion in free cash flow, so what's your point?




When I calculated TTM free cash flow after the last earnings report, I came up with $45,000,000,000.

What's interesting is that the [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:54 AM

Re: Apples to Oranges, Mangos and Bananas

I bought an A Share for a client in Sept 1987 and paid $4400. The next month the market crashed and we bought another share $2800. Sure It would have been better to wait and buy two shares after the crash, but in the real world does it make any [more]

Sun Mar 16

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:10 PM

Re: Wall of Separation??

But maybe the most bizarre thing from that article is that Fitch rates Munich Re the same as Berkshire...and Berkshire doesn't get the top rating.

This is simply ludicrous. If Berkshire doesn't qualify for the top rating, what conceivable [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:57 PM

Re: Wall of Separation??

Just one more guestimated tidbit to show how absolutely absurd Berkshire's relative financial strength is:

Berkshire's ownership of IBM stock by itself would cause it to have more assets relative to premiums than the industry as a [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:41 PM

Re: Wall of Separation??

it's simply outrageous how much more secure are Berkshire's promises than anyone else's. It's like an order of magnitude more...and that gap is widening every year, I would assume.


Crunching some numbers, the ratio of [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:24 PM

Re: Wall of Separation??

Some amazing numbers in there:

Berkshire commands only about 10% of the global reinsurance premiums.

Yet it commands 58% of the invested assets!

First, that 10% means there's a lot of room for Berkshire to grow, if/when [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:05 PM

Re: Wall of Separation??

For those paying attention, that GEICO position on the report's listing was valued at $16 billion as of 2011, up just under $1 billion for the year, suggesting maybe someone is doing formal annual appraisals. Looks like they imply some remarkable [more]

Sat Mar 15

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 11:12 AM

Re: Just The Facts.

But congratulations on finding a writer who agrees with you.


Well, actually, the point of one of the three articles referenced was that United Airlines agrees.

Can you name an example of any major business [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 12:17 AM

Re: TV shrinkage - PC market redux

I don't dispute that people have limited time, and that when you offer them increasing alternatives the incumbents will suffer. Just as newspapers did when radio arrived, just as radio did when television arrived, just as television did when cable [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Apple board. 12:03 AM

Just The Facts.

http://time.com/23605/uniteds-in-flight-video-streaming-more...

. Download the latest United app from the iTunes® App [more]

Wed Mar 12

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Boards Post

commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:50 AM

Does Fed Have Any More Rabbits?

A very interesting and worthwhile article on the perilous state of the market based on reliable historical data:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140310.htm

But maybe [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:06 AM

Re: Approaching The Abyss...



Why? The problem isn't the amount you owe, the problem is paying the vig, right?



If I remember correctly, that's exactly what many over-borrowed home "owners" with artificially-low variable rate mortgages [more]

Tue Mar 11

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:38 PM

Re: Approaching The Abyss...

Yes, it's a terrible thing when I owe myself money. I might call my loan and pay myself off, and then where would I be?




Well, by your rationale, it doesn't really matter that the notional value of options in the world [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:17 AM

Re: Approaching The Abyss...

I sure hope Warren is captain of the ship when this storm hits. It's not like others couldn't deal with it, but between his brilliance as well as having experienced so many market and economic upheavals, there is simply no one better suited for such [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:15 AM

Approaching The Abyss...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-09/global-debt-exceeds...


The global debt increase over the past six years [more]

Mon Mar 10

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:58 AM

Re: Earnings versus cash flow

Based on the summary, non-GAAP data Buffett supplies in the shareholder
letter for the operating subs, our working capital numbers don't look so good:

Net working capital = 17% of revenue, and 3.8X net earnings. Kind of surprises me that [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:35 AM

Re: Earnings versus cash flow

Individual participants vary, however. Walmart through both its operational skills and its leverage over suppliers (strong-armed better terms) typically decreases working capital by 5% of each dollar of additional revenue. Walmart’s underlying [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts
Board Posts 3418
Recs Received 4952
People who have rec'd these posts 710
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Threads Started 290
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Most Frequent Board Apple
Very First Post The Disappointing Reality with Berkshire (5/19/2009)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 51.23 %
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