commoncents33’s Activity

Today

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Boards Post

commoncents33 posted to the Apple board. 5:25 AM

Margins

When looking at net income, earnings peaked in 2012, then sank for the following two years. Net margins fell substantially during that time. Those two, I believe, were instrumental in causing the huge stock crash of 2012-2013...though there were [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:47 AM

Financial Engineering

IBM has taken a whole lot of criticism of late, with people condemning their "financial engineering". Seems like everyone...except Buffett.

Well, for a few examples of how much "financial engineering" (i.e., aggressive [more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:54 AM

Re: OT: Fastenal

These clips from the 2014 proxy statement would bring a smile to Buffett:

"We are a decentralized company with ,b>decisions made by those closest to our customer. We avoid central planning as we believe it stifles the [more]

Yesterday

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:17 PM

Re: BNSF derailment

Despite the media's penchant for sensationalizing these things, what's the big deal?

No one was hurt, and this will be easy to clean up.

When you have a world with millions and millions of drivers and ubiquitous electricity and all [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:27 PM

Re: OT: Fastenal

"And then there are the satellite stores--otherwise known as vending machines. This is truly an instant-delivery solution, with parts right on premises. Can someone else do this?"

Yes they can:

MSC
[more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:39 PM

Re: OT: Fastenal

FWIW, total return 16.1% compounded in the 14.2 years since that post.
Good post, I guess.



All the more impressive given that the P/E at the starting point was about 26X, and has compressed down to 21X for the ending point.

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Boards Post

commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:39 AM

OT: Fastenal

I bring this up here simply because this is a business with a good moat, and it has wonderful management...the kind that I think Buffett would admire.

This is one of those businesses that is widely recognized as excellent, so it always [more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:26 AM

Re: Fastenal (FAST)

FAST fell 3%+ today to below $40.



Yes, thank you Mr. Market. Just what I needed to pull the trigger on this one.

To those who say there is a lot of competition in this field, isn't there a lot of competition [more]

Wed Mar 4

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:18 PM

Re: Buffett Purchasing Criteria Screen

I would place Fastenal (FAST) toward the top of the list based on the criteria you stated.

And just so happens, it's had a substantial decline in price lately, and is trading at a P/E of 20...which is about as low as it gets for this stock [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:46 AM

Re: Price vs Book-Value Changes

Is there not a possibility that you're using a bad metric of value (price)
to corroborate another poor metric of value (book value per share)?
Both understate growth in share value in this period.
The fact that they more or less match
[more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:36 AM

Re: Price vs Book-Value Changes

Is there not a possibility that you're using a bad metric of value (price)
to corroborate another poor metric of value (book value per share)?
Both understate growth in share value in this period.
The fact that they more or less match
[more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:28 AM

Re: Buffett's Two Columns

I will grant, in thinking about the float, that Buffett excludes underwriting income, which has averaged about $1.5B per year in the last 14 years, including the very bad 2001 and 2002. Maybe this is a fair trade-off - if you are being paid almost [more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:18 AM

Re: Buffett's Two Columns

Stop worrying about the balance sheet. Do not continue with further balance sheet criteria.
Instead, value based on EPV (or occasionally another metric more appropriate to the firm)

What Mr Buffett is in effect saying is that (1) the
[more]

Tue Mar 3

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:23 AM

Re: Rate of change of value

Jim, interesting data.

Two points:

1) The cash drag is more than 20% of float. Even a few years ago when float was only 60ish, Buffett was talking about keeping $20B on reserve. I'd be shocked if that number isn't adjusted upward [more]

Mon Mar 2

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:22 PM

Re: Wow, WEB ripped David Winters on CNBC

Ouch. "All glass house", I like it.



I liked it better when he had the class to praise by name, and criticize only by category. Deep down, I known Buffett prefers that too, and I'd bet he regrets saying that [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:10 PM

Re: Reflections on Shareholder Letter

It is justified but I was surprised to see WEB call out David Winters on CNBC.



I see your point.

But then what do you make of his making that for-the-first-time-in-half-a-century change and spending [more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:36 AM

Re: Wow, WEB ripped David Winters on CNBC

It is justified but I was surprised to see WEB call out David Winters on CNBC.




Maybe a bit more detail...

...what was justified?
...why?
...what are you talking about?

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:33 AM

Re: Adjusted Look-through Earnings

When this topic has come up in the past, one of the cautions raised has been not to double count the earnings from the portfolio by including the investment gains component of Berkshire earnings in addition to the hypothetical look through number. [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:37 AM

Price vs Book-Value Changes

Buffett recently decided to add price changes in the intro to the shareholder letter alongside the 50-year-old book value.

Just curious to see how this would change the CAGR over the past 14 years (I was going to look at 15 years, but that [more]

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:51 AM

Re: Adjusted Look-through Earnings

Well, maybe this is a short-cut less likely to be in error, but still getting at the same basic "look-through" concept:

Simply take the published total reported GAAP earnings for Berkshire, and add in the $3.1B of non-distributed [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts
Board Posts 3742
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Very First Post The Disappointing Reality with Berkshire (5/19/2009)
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