commoncents33’s Activity

Yesterday

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Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:18 PM

Re: OT: Idea

I happen to use BofA and they offer a linked payroll service (by Intuit) that’s particularly convenient and that I also use. Hopefully you won’t rush to hire employees and this is just for future reference, but when you get to that stage I’ve also [more]

Fri Jan 30

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 3:29 AM

Re: Apple pay moving the needle (not) article

People are going to buy a device just so they can use it to pay for things a little more conveniently? I don't see it happening with "the masses".



1) How important a device which offer convenience is depends to a [more]

Thu Jan 29

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:35 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...


so you would sell it all and go to cash based on two correct timing incidents of CAPE and Schiller ratios? That's not enough data points IMO to arrive at a decision on the accuracy of their predictive value




No, you've [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:27 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

You speculated and won initially. Just like at the track, that's an invitation to problems. All or Nothing is not an investment strategy. It's pure Gambling.



You're right. It was successful as far as speculation goes. But [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 2:12 AM

Re: Bad assumptions

The juxtaposition of Apple being one of the best, most innovative, and most profitable businesses in history…yet one that is perennially alleged to be on the brink of failure, is quite fascinating.


Ben Thompson, has helped unravel this [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:17 AM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...



I thought all of you are enjoying the low IBM price? Suddenly IBM became expense?




Well, the concern of many is not sudden (apparent) cheapness, but rather a gradual replacement of their core business by a different [more]

Wed Jan 28

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:28 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

You do know now that this sort of all-in betting on market swings is reckless, right?


Not nearly as reckless as owning tech stocks on margin was in 1999. (although I got off that train track just in the nick of time)

I'm [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:48 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

You do know now that this sort of all-in betting on market swings is reckless, right?



Yes.

A decade later, I've gained at least a little bit of wisdom, I hope.

This time, I'm not short a penny. [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:28 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

** Great investors like Buffett and Lynch repeatedly stress the importance of focusing on a stock's value, not the market. My instinct is to leave the CAPEs for Caped Crusaders like Batman.



Like I said, Buffett has (maybe [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:22 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

I figure that the maximum market drop probably occurred in 2009 with ~37%




I think the market was down more like 50%.

In any case, it's gone down more than that in the past, and certainly could again. One thing [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 9:01 PM

Re: Bad assumptions

Ben Thompson gets it exactly right. As SJ might say, they're holding it wrong.



You're right on two fronts:

1) Many go astray by confusing typical disruption theory and buying patterns for businesses with that [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:34 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

“The market timers' 'Hall of Fame' is an empty room. I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year or the next two days...if I knew what was going to happen in 1974, I wouldn't have [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 4:21 PM

Re: Money in the bank

The size of the cash hoard is getting so outrageous, and rapidly more so every quarter, that it's starting to worry me.

When they have start having something like a quarter of a trillion dollars, it's going to be all but impossible [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:48 PM

Re: Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

What's the moral we should take from the original poster's story of failed timing?
Market timing using things like Q and Shiller's CAPE will fail.
That's because they are not market timing tools. They never were.



Jim, [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 1:30 AM

Re: Apple pay moving the needle (not) article

Apple is, first and foremost, a hardware company.



Really?

Then why is it that some of the others making very-high quality smartphones can't even begin to compete with Apple? Ditto those making very nice ultrabooks [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:14 AM

Fool Me Once, Shame On You...

...fool me twice, shame on me.


I just wanted to share a small glimpse of my history of "market timing", in the hopes that it may help someone here.

I, like many, rode the tsunami wave of tech stocks up during the late [more]

Tue Jan 27

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commoncents33 posted to the Apple board. 6:11 PM

Conference Call Reflections

Just a few random thoughts on the conference call:

1) Despite the absolute blow-out in iPhone unit increase, the percentage of prior iPhone users that have upgraded is "barely in the teens". So there is still a long upgrade ramp [more]

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commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 5:01 PM

Re: Huge numbers "crushes" estimates

guidance on revenue slightly below consensus



As a partial owner of a business, who cares?

Fact is, guidance is roughly 17% above last year for revenue. Between higher margins and huge share buybacks, eps will likely [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Apple board. 4:45 PM

Sell!

Sure per share earning were up 48%, and the stock is trading at a measly 13X earnings.

But it's all down hill from here. They had their day in the sun, but now people are going to either 1) hold on to their current phones forever, or 2) [more]

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commoncents33 posted to the Apple board. 3:45 PM

Kind of Bizarre

I read a headline today that basically said that Apple better have outrageous earnings results and guidance..."or else". Implying that the stock will tank otherwise.

I'm sure many "investors" share that [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts
Board Posts 3642
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Very First Post The Disappointing Reality with Berkshire (5/19/2009)
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