commoncents33’s Activity

Thu Dec 18

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 1:20 AM

Re: Class action iPod suit goes away

The rampant abuse of class action lawsuits, which mostly enrich lawyers, is one of the cancers of this country, right up there with hyper-regulation and crony politics.

Loser-pays-all-costs would be a great first step in civil litigation [more]

Wed Dec 17

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:22 PM

Re: OT new highs and lows

So the Manlobbi Method is now saying to buy IBM over Berkshire
but it is so marginal that both should do about equally well over the
next decade. If you have significant unrealised capital gains in either,
don't change
[more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:48 AM

Re: IBM

The Truth Hidden by IBM’s Buybacks


While IBM certainly has problems, this incessant meme that "IBM should have been spending money building their business instead of buying back shares" is getting tired. Like they can't [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:15 AM

Re: IBM

Now at 151. P/E of 12.2 and Forward P/E of 9.




The thing I'm trying to wrap my head around is whether this is an excellent business at an attractive price, or a mediocre business at a fair price.

Not so [more]

Sat Dec 13

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:54 AM

Re: OT: Mining Companies

But back to miners, they have zero pricing power and the products are by definition commodities.
They are best thought of as buying a fixed quantity of depleting assets that cost a lot to get out of storage.
I don't see any possibility of
[more]

Fri Dec 12

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:32 PM

OT: Mining Companies

Just wondering if anyone with a significant competence could share their thoughts on the attractiveness (or lack thereof) of diversified miners, in particular BHP Billiton.

The share price has almost been cut in half from it's recent high, [more]

Wed Dec 10

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:29 PM

Re: Volume?

Seriously? I'd kind-of assumed that probably wasn't significant enough to be the cause.

And "the pop unwound" ?? What does that mean, exactly?




Wow. If you've got to get snarky with the ever-insightful [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:09 PM

Re: Wow.

The point is to take *advantage* of Mr. Market's consensus (which was unreasonably negative 5 years ago, when you were following along with it, and is actually fairly neutral at the moment --not especially 'cheery'), but I'm not sure you get [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 8:47 PM

Re: GoPro

Sure...I guess anything is possible.

But investing in the stock at today's price and based on that scenario (dream?) is basically buying a lottery ticket, not investing.

Nothing illegal or immoral about lottery tickets. But not [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 6:41 PM

Re: GoPro

Given their current valuation, they would have to grow at outrageous rates for quite some time for it to end up being a worthwhile long-term
investment.

Simply finding a great business (and I'm not so sure GoPro is, long-term) is only [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 4:11 PM

Re: BLOOD IS IN THE STREETS!!

There's very little I could say that would help anyone outside of those who are really long term investors ( > 10 years ) and those people already know what they need to know


And how, exactly, does it help them when you remind [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:50 AM

Re: contrarian view oil & gas

Absolutely true, but with a decline in production comes an inevitable decline in volume. How profitable toll roads are is determined entirely by the tolls they are able to charge and the volume of the traffic. Less production; less traffic. Less [more]

Tue Dec 9

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 11:11 PM

Re: quick ques about appl

Speaking of growth rates separate from buybacks, here are some numbers from Morningstar, showing the growth of free cash flow:

2011 $30,077

2012 $41,454

2013 $44,590

2014 $49,900



Not too bad at [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Value Hounds board. 9:57 PM

Re: contrarian view oil & gas

Imagine Kinder's perfect storm: energy prices so low; for so long, that domestic extraction turns into a losing proposition and production drops to a trickle? Then, owning pipelines would be "as tough a business as one could be in." [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Value Hounds board. 8:50 PM

Re: contrarian view oil & gas

For anything to double in five years requires a CAGR of 15%. KMI dividend growth targets are 8-10% annually (A CAGR of 8-10%).



My bad...was just going by the vague impression I had in my head from a semi-recent look at the [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 5:20 PM

Re: quick ques about appl

I thought I explained that eps growth is fueled by share buy back.



Certainly share buybacks will enhance EPS growth. But Apple has been generating double-digit earnings growth of late on a gross basis as well. [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 3:31 PM

Re: BLOOD IS IN THE STREETS!!

Why? Are AAPL shares lottery tickets or ownership certificates in a highly successful business? Fully 35% of my port is AAPL. I ain't selling because there's no reason to.

Churchy



Churchy,

As you've told us [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:26 PM

Re: contrarian view oil & gas

I look at the stock and once again this is a high priced stock, over 30x EPS? Is there something to suggest earnings will basically double any time soon?



I don't think I can give a satisfactory explanation of the accounting, [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Apple board. 1:12 AM

Re: quick ques about appl

The company Apple although not growing much anymore


Well, per share earnings this quarter are likely to be up around 20%...so not so sure about the growth rate.

Is this a temporary blip up, or has Apple made some [more]

NL

Boards Post

commoncents33 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:07 AM

Re: Wow.

I don't know what the hell this is, but --after 6 years of waiting, since the last time BRK was reasonably priced-- I'm enjoying it.


So essentially Mr. Market feels better now about Berkshire than it has at any other time over [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts
Board Posts 3584
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Very First Post The Disappointing Reality with Berkshire (5/19/2009)
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