btresist’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

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btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 6:11 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

It's orders of magnitudes harder balancing costs in one country (diminished economic activity in China) with benefits in another country (protection against sea level rise in Japan).

No doubt. But at least let us no longer confound [more]

NL

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btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 2:37 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Sorry, but LED technology has been advancing for decades. Newly designed devices (flashlights, Christmas lights, camera flash, for example) that did not have replaceable bulbs, but LEDs permanently built-in appeared for sale long before any [more]

NL

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btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 2:23 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

"How many millions of Chinese peasants should remain in absolute poverty for how many more generations in order to prevent X% of coastal cities like Guayaquil, Osaka, and Miami from Y amount of sea level rise?" That kind of question is a [more]

NL

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btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 10:06 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

At any rate, back in the Wentz paper the authors write that the reason for the discrepancy between observation and models "is not clear" and conclude "The difference between a subdued increase in rainfall and a C-C [more]

NL

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btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 9:23 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

I'm happy with going after low hanging fruit. As long as that fruit has some promise of greater and greater returns as deployment increases and costs are reduced. This means we should investigate and design solutions (such as solar cells) but stop [more]

Mon Apr 14

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 2:07 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

When you stick current-gen solar panels on a prime insolated location, you use up that location and the resources that went into that panel - for less electrical output relative to your costs (and perhaps even on an absolute basis) than if you [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 1:04 PM

Re: The anti-CMIP

I think in the current context we have to make a solid case that our methodology is sound and our motives are pure, over and over again, to anyone who asks. In my considered opinion that is a strong moral imperative that applies to everyone in or [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 12:35 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Taking the metaphor of a carbon budget, it might actually be harder to reduce our carbon budget in the next decade (given current tech) than it would be in decades further out (given future tech).

But that will always be true. One [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 10:30 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

People keep asserting that the short term costs are lower than the long term costs, but that's not necessarily true. It might not even be true of the costs of mitigation itself, let alone comparing a range of mitigation options with a range of [more]

Fri Apr 11

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Atheist Fools board. 2:48 PM

Re: The discomfort of truth

Can you see how our fundamental ideas about free will impact our success or failure with regard to human behavior depending on whether that model is correct or not?

Nope.
Option-1: Our conscious brain makes choices by processing [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 12:47 PM

Re: The anti-CMIP

The problem is that the real world hasn't performed as the models predict.

For the sake of argument, lets assume economics and climatology are the same. The economy is sufficiently complex that if the Fed were to peg the interest rate [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 10:06 AM

Re: The anti-CMIP

The evidence, therefore, indicates that the current generation of climate models (when run as a group, with the CMIP5 prescribed forcings) do not reproduce the observed global warming over the past 20 years....such an inconsistency is only [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 9:49 AM

Re: The anti-CMIP

Geez, I feel like I'm teach intro to the scientific method.

The surface temperature multi model mean projections of AR4 are currently more than 2 standard deviations away from actual surface temperature since 2000 as measured by [more]

Thu Apr 10

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 7:04 PM

Re: The anti-CMIP

You could easily do this with a statistical model of the climate, since if you use too many fitting parameters, you can basically make that model say whatever you wan. It's not statistically rigorous, but that hasn't stopped people before. It [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist posted to the Climate Change board. 4:23 PM

The anti-CMIP

If all the current climate models showing future warming are bogus then it should be relatively simple to create a parallel collection of models that simulate climate in back tests equally as well as CMIP5, but instead project stable or even cooling [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 1:22 PM

Re: Best idea of the decade

I was assuming that we were making a model then seeing how well it did in the future, like the paper you initially posted, this is the approach I agree with, as I stated. I do not agree that hindcasting shows a model is better than another [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 10:23 AM

Re: Best idea of the decade

Anyway, what do those two models show me? That a cherry picked model that is adjusted "works pretty well" 25 years later?

They suggest that it is possible to model temperatures over the given time scale under the given [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 10:02 AM

Re: Best idea of the decade

You're finally getting something decent instead of talking in circles, but this is based on hindcasting,...

To be honest, I've been getting to the decent stuff the whole time, you just didn't seem to get it. These evaluations have [more]

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 8:33 AM

Re: Pacific typhoon papers

Nice? He is the IPCC hurricane expert who saw no connection between global warming and hurricane frequency and intensity and who was forced to resign because the IPCC was claiming otherwise!

Which is great stuff for People magazine. [more]

Wed Apr 9

NL

Boards Post

btresist replied to the Climate Change board. 4:17 PM

Re: Pacific typhoon papers

Landsea ended up resigning from the IPCC.

That's nice. Anyway, back to the point. What official IPCC statements about typhoons has been shown to be alarmist and incorrect?

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