bearmarketbully’s Activity

Thu Mar 27

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:30 AM

Re: TARP Warrants anti dilution adjustment trigg

53 cents in the final two quarters (Q's 2 & 3 of 2018). Equates to a 4-yr CAGR on the dividend of 11%.

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:02 AM

Re: TARP Warrants anti dilution adjustment triggered

I have owned the WFC warrants since August 2010. You are correct that the anti-dilution adjustment has been triggered. I estimate the strike price will drop from $34.01 to $32.39 by the time the warrants expire in October 2018.

So, if you [more]

Sun Mar 2

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:58 PM

Re: A Back-of-the-Envelope Valuation Analysis

Aren't the Big Four earnings $4.4 billion? $1.4 billion plus the $3 billion not reported?

Sat Mar 1

NL

Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:44 AM

Re: Moved the goalpost

You are correct. And something I predicted here. Ridiculous for WEB to move the goalposts. That aside, the business results were phenomenal and I stand by the stock being worth 1.8 times book value.

Thu Feb 27

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:43 AM

Re: DVA purchases continue

They have $8 billion in long-term debt and a slew of leases that aren't capitalized. Interestingly, they did not repurchase any stock in 2012 and 2013.

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:13 AM

Re: DVA purchases continue

The message is that a buyout of DVA is a foregone conclusion. This is proceeding exactly the way BNSF did. We will wake up one morning to see a buyout at a 25 to 30 percent premium to the prior day's price.

Wed Feb 26

NL

Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:39 PM

Re: Mrs Buffett "Buying/selling"?

You may be right but it was completely unnecessary for Warren to bring his personal affairs into the annual letter.

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:05 AM

Re: Annual Speculation

Nice post. Prepare to be crucified by the "Buffett can do no wrong junkies."

Thu Feb 20

NL

Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:42 PM

Re: Size Matters

I apologize, Berkshire has handily beaten the diversified insurance index over 15 years. But the point is, the stock is undervalued and it's been long enough now for the realignment between price and value to take place. WEB has the ability to put [more]

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:38 PM

Re: Size Matters

I need to correct myself. Berkshire actually trails the S&P now by 75 basis points per annum over the last 10 years (taxes on dividends and capital gains distributions will reduce this somewhat). It maintains a 130 basis point edge per annum over [more]

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:28 PM

Re: Size Matters

We've had these discussions over and over again and the fact is Berkshire stock has horribly underperformed the last five years and has only matched the S&P over 10 years. There have been a few opportunistic times to buy in during this time frame [more]

Mon Feb 3

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:35 PM

Re: Let me get this straight.

Good point, but if he thought there was going to be a systemic collapse I doubt he would have been buying in his personal account and writing an article to the world telling them to do the same.

From the article:

"I don’t like [more]

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:12 PM

Re: Let me get this straight.

I appreciate your reply and obviously agree with you. There are many things that have happened inside the company over the last five years that are worthy of further questioning.

At the top of my list is the failure of WEB's own five-year [more]

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:23 PM

Let me get this straight.

Someone wants to leave the message board and/or put me on ignore and trash me because:

1. I think Berkshire is worth 1.8 to 2.0 times book value and he doesn't. And that I would like to see a full valuation for the stock reached in my [more]

Sun Feb 2

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:50 PM

Re: Progressive

Additionally, you thought Berkshire was worth 1.7 times book in early 2009, which hardly differs from my view of 1.8 times book.

http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=220

And much has [more]

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:42 PM

Re: Progressive

The part about what are you smoking was clearly a joke. Sorry if you've never heard that one before. I just think you are way off on your analysis of Progressive vs. Berkshire even though Berkshire is a completely different animal. At this point in [more]

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:03 PM

Re: Progressive

Post your audited investment returns and I'll post mine and we'll see who the real idiot is.

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:05 AM

Re: Progressive

By the way, please pass along whatever it is you've been smoking. I'd love to try it.

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Boards Post

bearmarketbully replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:04 AM

Re: Progressive

Let me get this straight. You disagree with me that Berkshire is worth 1.8 to 2.0 times book yet like Progressive at 2.3 times book?

Progressive's book value per share (using your data) increased from $5.81 to $11.32 from 12.31.03 to [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 208
Recs Received 450
People who have rec'd these posts 144
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 69
Threads Started Percentage 33.17 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: Alice is bullish (8/13/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 62.98 %
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