albaby1’s Activity

Fri Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 2:26 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

In any case, I suspect China today has a bit more respect for what the scientific community considers "prudent" when it comes to the environment. You know, scientists actually have a genuine belief that being good to the environment [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 1:31 PM

Re: Krugman on Climate and Solar

As I said, any realistic scenario for mitigation is going to have costs that are a multiplier of that .06% drop in growth. I wouldn't blink an eye if someone said it will be 200% greater than that: annual reduced growth of .18%.

Well, [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 1:27 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

I think there is fairly broad agreement within the scientific community that starting mitigation efforts now would be prudent given the science-derived risk assessment.

If you want to be cynical about it, I would expect that very few [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 1:16 PM

Re: The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation

If mitigation takes the form of a moderate carbon tax, or other fund-raising mechanism, it provides funds which the government can direct towards lifting the impoverished out of poverty, towards extending access to clean energy purposefully to the [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 12:51 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Think about it a little harder. If you transfer money from one billionaire to another the first one becomes less wealthy and the latter still more wealthy. Wealth STILL gets more concentrated, and the GINI is already in the nosebleeding range. [more]

NL

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albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 12:46 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Yes, that is correct, but it isn't a stand-alone thing, the technology has ALWAYS had cheap energy to work with, and that gives the engineers an immense advantage when trying to fix what is broken. The problem is that that is over. Now anything we [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 12:32 PM

Re: Krugman on Climate and Solar

If truth be told, I thought of the idea that wind and sun could be major players as hippie-dippy wishful thinking.

But I was wrong.


I think he might still be wrong...though I might be misreading the IPCC report.

If [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 12:21 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Interesting thought that one is.

Yes... that WOULD work. The inequality of the world then increases to unprecedented levels as it makes people like the Koch brothers even wealthier at the expense of everyone else... but it WOULD work.
[more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 12:09 PM

Re: The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation

This vast extra bang for your buck of mitigation is much larger in developing countries like China and India where they lack effective pollution control at present, which could very well put lie to your assertion that mitigation will be extra [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 11:56 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

No. We do NOT have the right to impose those costs and the RISKS associated with them on future generations.

No more than we have the right to impose debts on future generations with no associated benefits.

If we impose debts our
[more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 10:56 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

But the larger point is that if 2050 is when warming stops, then you are correct, there is no point spending on mitigation. According to Richard Tol and the IPCC report, warming is a net economic benefit until then. But if you extend the model out [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 9:41 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Who decides, and who decides when to decide, and how do we persuade people to move. How long does it take to establish new and productive farms, to create the infrastructure? To move the people with the skills from one country to another? To [more]

Thu Apr 17

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 5:41 PM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Ok. I think I do understand, but I think my main points still hold (which probably means I don't understand). (1) From year-to-year, the mitigation cost of 0.06% should be easily subsumed by the remaining 99.94% of consumption and shouldn't be [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 1:08 PM

Re: The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation

The .06C annual loss of growth, offset in large part or in full by health co-benefits, strikes me as a negligible risk for setting off a global recession, much less any really serious disruption. Especially if the cost-effective mitigation [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 11:28 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Wow. You sound like a cigarette guy demanding "absolute proof" that nicotine is harmful circa 1970.

I think you're looking at that little facet of our discussion out of context. We were talking about whether the end of [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 11:21 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

People have plenty of time to walk away even it the WAIS drops into the ocean in a decade (very unlikely but possible 3 meter rise). Houses, power plants and other infrastructure don't relocate that easily. If it takes 2000 years to get the full [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 10:06 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

This might be a good example if everything was linear, but everything is not linear.

Well, to be pedantic about it, it's more accurate to say "not everything is linear," rather than "everything is not linear." [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 9:45 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

Sorry, perhaps I missed it but I don't see the basis for this statement. IPCC AR5 puts global mitigation costs at 0.06% reduction of annualized consumption growth rate for a 450ppm stabilization, reaching a total cost of 1.7% reduction by 2030. [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 9:40 AM

Re: They're always wrong but still get airtime

I don't think that is correct. The $2trillion you calculated is the cumulative cost through 2030 for mitigation (based on a mean total 1.7% reduction from baseline consumption). The reduction in the annualized consumption growth rate is the bright [more]

NL

Boards Post

albaby1 replied to the Climate Change board. 9:02 AM

Re: The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation

Do you honestly think that averaging 3.44% real growth per year versus 3.5% growth per year is a significant risk factor for touching off global recession?

Not especially - but that wasn't the point I was making. I was responding to a [more]

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