Zzorac’s Activity

Wed Jul 1

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:47 AM

Re: 1Q 2015 YTD Performance



Maybe we should compromise.

The first half of the year low prices for buyers.

The second half of the year high prices for sellers.

So everyone is happy. We should suggest this at the AGM.


Our [more]

Tue Jun 23

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:44 AM

Re: What books are you reading?


What I should be reading - Damodaran on valuation,


I took the easy way out. Just got done listening to Damodaran's 25 video series on valuation. Each video is approximately 15 minutes long. Good stuff!

[more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:27 AM

Re: Costco Big in Auto Sales

and getting bigger,

Last year, Costco Wholesale moved almost 400,000 vehicles of all major brands in the U.S., twice as many as in 2008. Without fanfare, the membership-only merchant better known for selling flatscreen TVs and jumbo-size
[more]

Mon Jun 15

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:06 AM

Re: Anyone have a functioning crystal ball?

The best simple yardstick of S&P index value is smoothed real earnings,
which I estimate have gone up 3.52%/year in the last 10 years.
(That's a breathtaking rate by historical standards, twice the long run average, due to net margin
[more]

Tue Jun 9

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:27 PM

Re: Sub 140

Link to Whitney Tilson's Berkshire slide deck updated on 5/3/15.
http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf

He thinks current IV is 174.
IV one year from now 196.4 (that's 40% above today's [more]

Thu Jun 4

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 2:51 AM

WSJ article on Gayner

WSJ article on Gayner by Jason Zweig. When you click on the link, it will say subscription is required. However, all you have to do is copy the first sentence. Paste it in a Google search. Click on the first search result and it will usually give you [more]

Sun May 31

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:48 PM

Re: Are P/E's too high?

Are P/Es too high?

How about a Fox News style Fair and Balanced answer :-)

Shiller says Yes.
05/29/2015 interview Goldman Sachs' Allison Nathan
[more]

Thu May 28

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:31 AM

Re: OT: Tobin's Q - what is it good for?

Jtrau: The key to understand this is the value of future earnings (net present value). Any asset valued as the sum of future earnings will therefore be much more valuable in a low-interest rate environment. If interest rates are, say, 13%, the [more]

Fri May 22

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:14 AM

Re: OT: Tobin's Q - what is it good for?

The value of any purely financial asset has a precise numerical value which is a direct function of the distributions it will be capable of in future, out to its liquidation date. The value isn't knowable in advance, but all valid debates about [more]

Wed May 13

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:28 PM

Re: Elann's 256108 (*Weighted)

Besides, it's good to remember how modest past results have been in many ways.
Aggregate real earnings of firms listed in the US have always risen at a low rate.
Usually under 2%/year per unit of cap-weighted
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:19 AM

Re: Brookfield Snowball


Book value per share today: $31.42
Book value per share growth: 13% per year (rate of change of book value is aligned with rate of change of IV).
Book value per share year 10: $106
Average annual dividend over 10 years: $0.80 per
[more]

Tue May 12

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Markel Corporation board. 2:07 AM

Re: Sometimes

what a Ticker Guide might be, nor why TMF in all its wisdom would have such a thing

I had not heard of Ticker Guides either. A search yielded below link.
[more]

Mon May 11

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 AM

Re: Brookfield Snowball

Have you studied the period around "the great recession?" Their stock got crushed, falling from a high of about $38 to a low of almost $11. What was their business performance, their response, etc? How did their real estate exposure hold [more]

Fri May 8

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Markel Corporation board. 1:23 PM

Re: MKL sells out of FFH.TO

Their new 13F is out.

Equity portfolio as of March 31, 2015:
http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=mkl

Sat Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 3:30 AM

Valuation based on investments per share

A typical 2 column BRK valuation method is sum of:
+ Investments per share
+ A 10 multiple of pretax income per share on everything other than investments per share.

Applying the same method to MKL using 2014 yearend numbers [more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:16 AM

Re: Languishing Share Price

Today BRKB dropped below its 200 day moving average sale price.
Buy or sell?
Tim


Well, Mr. Buffett himself gave a clear answer to this question in the 2014 annual report.

Buy if:

1. Price is modestly above [more]

Wed Apr 15

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:42 PM

OT: JPM 2014 Annual Report

The 2014 JPM annual report was finally released last week and it's a great read as usual. Dimon takes his time to talk about the goods and the bads, industry trends, competitive threats and all kinds of things. It's one of those letters (like [more]

Mon Apr 13

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:07 AM

Re: BRK is a hedge!

A rational person can make a decently sound case for equities these days, if the person is careful.
A rational person can make a decently sound case for cash


I agree with you that there isn't an investment case to be made for [more]

Tue Apr 7

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:10 PM

Re: BRK is a hedge!

why do you think Markel can compound book value at an attractive rate say over the next 10 years, if cash, bond and stock market returns average say 1%, 3% and 5% and their alpha remains stable at around 2% in stocks?

As others have [more]

Thu Apr 2

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:24 PM

Re: Bernanke's blog


>>Bernanke starts a new blog and explains why interest rates are low.
>>As a sidebar, Bernanke says that the Fed had nothing to do with the real rates being low, it's the darned savings glut from
[more]

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One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 188
Recs Received 583
People who have rec'd these posts 238
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 47
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Very First Post Google Street View Guys (11/15/2009)
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