Zzorac’s Activity

Wed Sep 17

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:56 AM

Re: OT: Asset class returns

but really where can I buy the best stuff - the "Other"? :-)

Short of planting or buying a forest, below ETF and its holdings may be something to look at.

iShares Global Timber & Forestry [more]

Sat Sep 13

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:53 AM

Re: Identifying moats

Link to a post about moats made my Jim a few months ago. This one has some examples: Amazon, Walmart, Sony.

[more]

Fri Sep 12

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 12:01 AM

Interview, MV Revenue Run Rate

Not exactly hot off the presses. The interview is a few weeks old. Posting it here for those who haven't seen it yet.

[more]

Wed Sep 10

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:00 PM

Re: The Buffett Indicator

Smart people were saying much the same thing in 1992, given what they knew then. Based on information available in 1992, the Shiller P/E was high, in fact, the ratio hit the 90th percentile compared to the previous 25 years. Yet, the market [more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 12:20 PM

CarMax, Global Reinsurance

PS, we need more posts on this board.
I want to make sure we keep it on the first page of boards starting with M.


Okay. I don't have any answers to provide, but I will do my bit towards generating more posts by asking [more]

Sat Sep 6

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 11:34 PM

Downgrade

FWIW, On Aug 30, 2014, Zacks Investment Research downgraded Markel Corp. (MKL) by two notches to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) from a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

[more]

Tue Sep 2

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:02 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Latest article on the Philosophical Economics blog titled "Why is the Shiller CAPE so high?" It's a good read.

Profit margins began the period in 1962 at almost 7%, and bottomed in 1992 at less than 4%, leaving investors with [more]

Wed Aug 27

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:59 AM

Re: WEB's Geico analysis 1976

I like one offhand guideline that Mr Buffett throws in:
"when you can find a combination of (i) and extremely large business,
(ii) a more or less homogenous product, and (ii) a very large gap in
operating costs between the low
[more]

Mon Aug 25

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:10 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

But aggregate real non-financial sales are remarkably non-cyclical...the dips in recessions are quite modest.

for the broad market: it is naturally pretty insensitive to the business cycle.

As a rule of thumb, sales are pretty
[more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:20 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

I just can't see being short the largest 200 companies in the S&P at this moment in time

My take on this is that it's not a bet against the 200 companies per se. At least not in the same way as one would think of a short against [more]

Thu Aug 21

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:27 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

If I choose 7% as the target trend earnings yield, the longest the
market has ever gone in the past without being cheaper than that was 17.7 years,and it has been 5 years so far this time...

I'll probably pick a more moderate
[more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:21 PM

Re: beheading

Believe it or not, what is happening in the world, geo-politically and economically, is relevant to the future fortunes of Berkshire Hathaway. If you find that hard to grasp and feel that raising your eyes for a moment from Berkshire’s 10-K “very [more]

Wed Aug 20

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:58 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

S&P 500 Real Sales
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-real-sales

S&P 500 Real Price
[more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:12 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Usually GMO 7 year real return forecast charts don't take volatility into account. This one has 7 year real return forecasts on the Y axis and expected real volatility on the x axis. As of June 30, 2014.

The article only talks about [more]

Tue Aug 19

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:07 PM

Re: OT: Cities by millionaire density

Monaco RE prices ...

Tour Odeon, a double-skyscraper being built by Groupe Marzocco SAM near Monaco’s Mediterranean seafront, which will contain a 3,300 square-meter (35,500 square-foot) penthouse with a water slide connecting a dance floor [more]

Mon Aug 18

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:18 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

For the s&p 500 index
2014 2Q as reported eps: $27.47
TTM eps as of 2014 2Q: $105.00

These are inflation adjusted figures.

That puts TTM PE at 1971.74/105 = 18.78.

Very impressive earnings by any measure. The [more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:52 PM

Re: OT: Wells Fargo

Conversely Wells Fargo is just plain a good business. I can't see any particular reason they won't be around, and bigger in real terms, and earning an excellent return on equity 20 or 30 years from now.

It's true I can't think of any
[more]

Sat Aug 16

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:45 PM

OT: Wells Fargo

Jim,

You have said in the past that IBM and WFC are significant positions for you. For IBM you have talked a lot about what total return to expect. Depending on when I expect it to hit 260 (20 eps * 13 multiple), and including the dividend [more]

Fri Aug 15

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:23 PM

Re: Come on, guys: 202k, 203k, ...

Maybe they used they Dec 31st BV of 221890 which would give 1.50 now, instead of the June 30 BV of 234005 which gives a ratio of 1.42 (would have been 1.44 when I posted)


2014 2Q BV is $142,483 per A share (94.99 B share). That [more]

Thu Aug 14

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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 143
Recs Received 401
People who have rec'd these posts 199
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 35
Threads Started Percentage 24.48 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Google Street View Guys (11/15/2009)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 67.13 %
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