Zzorac’s Activity

Today

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 2:43 AM

Re: More distressed buying

So capitalised at a multiple of 15, and using the fee business revenue run rate of $1.2b stated near the start of the latest annual report, this gives a capitalisation of 15 * 1.2 * 0.65 = $12b for the fee business. This is added on to the book [more]

Sat Jul 25

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 1:56 AM

Re: More distressed buying

I don't however understand the logic of this kind of news getting out prior to the sale actually taking place. Perhaps this is something required by the seller in order to attract other bids. Brookfield, like Berkshire Hathaway, strongly avoids [more]

Wed Jul 1

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:47 AM

Re: 1Q 2015 YTD Performance



Maybe we should compromise.

The first half of the year low prices for buyers.

The second half of the year high prices for sellers.

So everyone is happy. We should suggest this at the AGM.


Our [more]

Tue Jun 23

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:44 AM

Re: What books are you reading?


What I should be reading - Damodaran on valuation,


I took the easy way out. Just got done listening to Damodaran's 25 video series on valuation. Each video is approximately 15 minutes long. Good stuff!

[more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:27 AM

Re: Costco Big in Auto Sales

and getting bigger,

Last year, Costco Wholesale moved almost 400,000 vehicles of all major brands in the U.S., twice as many as in 2008. Without fanfare, the membership-only merchant better known for selling flatscreen TVs and jumbo-size
[more]

Mon Jun 15

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:06 AM

Re: Anyone have a functioning crystal ball?

The best simple yardstick of S&P index value is smoothed real earnings,
which I estimate have gone up 3.52%/year in the last 10 years.
(That's a breathtaking rate by historical standards, twice the long run average, due to net margin
[more]

Tue Jun 9

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:27 PM

Re: Sub 140

Link to Whitney Tilson's Berkshire slide deck updated on 5/3/15.
http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf

He thinks current IV is 174.
IV one year from now 196.4 (that's 40% above today's [more]

Thu Jun 4

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 2:51 AM

WSJ article on Gayner

WSJ article on Gayner by Jason Zweig. When you click on the link, it will say subscription is required. However, all you have to do is copy the first sentence. Paste it in a Google search. Click on the first search result and it will usually give you [more]

Sun May 31

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:48 PM

Re: Are P/E's too high?

Are P/Es too high?

How about a Fox News style Fair and Balanced answer :-)

Shiller says Yes.
05/29/2015 interview Goldman Sachs' Allison Nathan
[more]

Thu May 28

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:31 AM

Re: OT: Tobin's Q - what is it good for?

Jtrau: The key to understand this is the value of future earnings (net present value). Any asset valued as the sum of future earnings will therefore be much more valuable in a low-interest rate environment. If interest rates are, say, 13%, the [more]

Fri May 22

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:14 AM

Re: OT: Tobin's Q - what is it good for?

The value of any purely financial asset has a precise numerical value which is a direct function of the distributions it will be capable of in future, out to its liquidation date. The value isn't knowable in advance, but all valid debates about [more]

Wed May 13

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:28 PM

Re: Elann's 256108 (*Weighted)

Besides, it's good to remember how modest past results have been in many ways.
Aggregate real earnings of firms listed in the US have always risen at a low rate.
Usually under 2%/year per unit of cap-weighted
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:19 AM

Re: Brookfield Snowball


Book value per share today: $31.42
Book value per share growth: 13% per year (rate of change of book value is aligned with rate of change of IV).
Book value per share year 10: $106
Average annual dividend over 10 years: $0.80 per
[more]

Tue May 12

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Markel Corporation board. 2:07 AM

Re: Sometimes

what a Ticker Guide might be, nor why TMF in all its wisdom would have such a thing

I had not heard of Ticker Guides either. A search yielded below link.
[more]

Mon May 11

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 AM

Re: Brookfield Snowball

Have you studied the period around "the great recession?" Their stock got crushed, falling from a high of about $38 to a low of almost $11. What was their business performance, their response, etc? How did their real estate exposure hold [more]

Fri May 8

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Markel Corporation board. 1:23 PM

Re: MKL sells out of FFH.TO

Their new 13F is out.

Equity portfolio as of March 31, 2015:
http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=mkl

Sat Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 3:30 AM

Valuation based on investments per share

A typical 2 column BRK valuation method is sum of:
+ Investments per share
+ A 10 multiple of pretax income per share on everything other than investments per share.

Applying the same method to MKL using 2014 yearend numbers [more]

Wed Apr 1

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:37 AM

1Q 2015 YTD Performance

Well, today was the last day in 1Q 2015. Let's take a peek at YTD performance. This year it is particularly easy to calculate Berkshire YTD. No need for pen & paper or calculator.

1. Remember the number 150. Why? Because BRKB closed at [more]

Mon Mar 30

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 1:28 AM

2015 BV Growth Estimate

Net income in 2014 was 321 million. Comprehensive income was 936 million. The difference between the 2 of approximately 600 million came from investments. Investment performance is twice as important as income from operations as a driver of book [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 190
Recs Received 590
People who have rec'd these posts 239
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 47
Threads Started Percentage 24.74 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Google Street View Guys (11/15/2009)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 72.11 %
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