Zzorac’s Activity

Sat Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 3:30 AM

Valuation based on investments per share

A typical 2 column BRK valuation method is sum of:
+ Investments per share
+ A 10 multiple of pretax income per share on everything other than investments per share.

Applying the same method to MKL using 2014 yearend numbers [more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:16 AM

Re: Languishing Share Price

Today BRKB dropped below its 200 day moving average sale price.
Buy or sell?
Tim


Well, Mr. Buffett himself gave a clear answer to this question in the 2014 annual report.

Buy if:

1. Price is modestly above [more]

Wed Apr 15

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:42 PM

OT: JPM 2014 Annual Report

The 2014 JPM annual report was finally released last week and it's a great read as usual. Dimon takes his time to talk about the goods and the bads, industry trends, competitive threats and all kinds of things. It's one of those letters (like [more]

Mon Apr 13

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:07 AM

Re: BRK is a hedge!

A rational person can make a decently sound case for equities these days, if the person is careful.
A rational person can make a decently sound case for cash


I agree with you that there isn't an investment case to be made for [more]

Tue Apr 7

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:10 PM

Re: BRK is a hedge!

why do you think Markel can compound book value at an attractive rate say over the next 10 years, if cash, bond and stock market returns average say 1%, 3% and 5% and their alpha remains stable at around 2% in stocks?

As others have [more]

Thu Apr 2

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:24 PM

Re: Bernanke's blog


>>Bernanke starts a new blog and explains why interest rates are low.
>>As a sidebar, Bernanke says that the Fed had nothing to do with the real rates being low, it's the darned savings glut from
[more]

Wed Apr 1

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:37 AM

1Q 2015 YTD Performance

Well, today was the last day in 1Q 2015. Let's take a peek at YTD performance. This year it is particularly easy to calculate Berkshire YTD. No need for pen & paper or calculator.

1. Remember the number 150. Why? Because BRKB closed at [more]

Tue Mar 31

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Markel Corporation board. 2:04 AM

Re: Markel Ventures

Brooklyn Investor posted a write-up in regards to Markel Ventures

Thanks for posting. It's an excellent discussion on valuing MV. The explanation from the 2010 letter discussing why it's okay to use EBIDTA as a valuation measure makes [more]

Mon Mar 30

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Markel Corporation board. 1:28 AM

2015 BV Growth Estimate

Net income in 2014 was 321 million. Comprehensive income was 936 million. The difference between the 2 of approximately 600 million came from investments. Investment performance is twice as important as income from operations as a driver of book [more]

Sat Mar 21

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:21 AM

Re: Semi-OT: Kinda cool

Why would anyone buy a bond that yielded negative interest? Why not just hold cash, and by cash I mean stacks of Euros in a vault? (Euros because these are german bonds). What is the possible advantage to owning paper that costs more to own than [more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:49 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

Manlobbi - Thanks again for your patience and detailed response. I think the reason for my confusion was that I incorrectly thought you meant valuation as in price. But you meant valuation as in earnings multiple.

I want to make sure I [more]

Fri Mar 20

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:16 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

Manlobbi - Thank you for the detailed response. I agree with what you are saying about the total return that an investor would get.

But what's still not clear to me is your comment about this not having any impact on valuation. In my [more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 AM

Re: Semi-OT: Kinda cool

A 3-D View of a Chart That Predicts The Economic Future: The Yield Curve

At least the US yield curve is still above the ground.

Here is the German bond yield curve. The entire front part of the curve is now trading below the [more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:31 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

But in the mathematical sense the two situations - having a 2% earnings increase and a 4% dividend, versus having no dividend and a 6% earnings increase - provide the same return the investor.

But in the case of the P/E being fixed, your
[more]

Wed Mar 18

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:28 PM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

An argument that a reduced dividend can be substituted with a an increased eps is rational and sound. However it has utterly no effect on valuation. The real historic earnings increase of 1.5% is not what constitutes the value but rather the sum [more]

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:12 AM

OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

Jim has frequently noted that real index earnings have risen on average at 1.5% - 2% in past decades.

The latest article in Philosophical Economics examines the possibility that the historical trend growth rate of real S&P 500 EPS does [more]

Sat Mar 7

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:55 PM

Re: BNSF derailment

One more! This time CN Railways in Canada.

In the early hours of this morning, yet another oil-carrying freight train derailed. Canadian National Railways says a fire continues to burn after a train carrying crude oil derailed in [more]

Fri Mar 6

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:58 AM

Re: BNSF derailment

Here are some pictures. Feel free to ignore the article. There is some stuff which you may not agree with. But if you scroll down a little bit, the article ends with some pretty good pictures of the explosion.

[more]

Wed Feb 25

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:34 PM

I eat like a six year old

Our fearless leader drinks 5 cokes every day! Eats potato sticks or ice cream for breakfast :)

Asked to explain the high-sugar, high-salt diet that has somehow enabled him to remain seemingly healthy, Buffett replies: “I checked the [more]

Sat Feb 21

NL

Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:26 AM

Re: 1 foot poles?


StevesStox:
AIG
-trades at 70 percent of a book value that is growing at 10 percent per annum.
AIG operates in one of the few industries that benefits immensely from a rate hike.
-at some point interest rates will
[more]

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One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 174
Recs Received 511
People who have rec'd these posts 225
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 46
Threads Started Percentage 26.44 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Google Street View Guys (11/15/2009)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 69.54 %
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