Zzorac’s Activity

Sat Mar 21

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:21 AM

Re: Semi-OT: Kinda cool

Why would anyone buy a bond that yielded negative interest? Why not just hold cash, and by cash I mean stacks of Euros in a vault? (Euros because these are german bonds). What is the possible advantage to owning paper that costs more to own than [more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:49 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

Manlobbi - Thanks again for your patience and detailed response. I think the reason for my confusion was that I incorrectly thought you meant valuation as in price. But you meant valuation as in earnings multiple.

I want to make sure I [more]

Fri Mar 20

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:16 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

Manlobbi - Thank you for the detailed response. I agree with what you are saying about the total return that an investor would get.

But what's still not clear to me is your comment about this not having any impact on valuation. In my [more]

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Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:53 AM

Re: Semi-OT: Kinda cool

A 3-D View of a Chart That Predicts The Economic Future: The Yield Curve

At least the US yield curve is still above the ground.

Here is the German bond yield curve. The entire front part of the curve is now trading below the [more]

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Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:31 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

But in the mathematical sense the two situations - having a 2% earnings increase and a 4% dividend, versus having no dividend and a 6% earnings increase - provide the same return the investor.

But in the case of the P/E being fixed, your
[more]

Wed Mar 18

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:28 PM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

An argument that a reduced dividend can be substituted with a an increased eps is rational and sound. However it has utterly no effect on valuation. The real historic earnings increase of 1.5% is not what constitutes the value but rather the sum [more]

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:12 AM

OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

Jim has frequently noted that real index earnings have risen on average at 1.5% - 2% in past decades.

The latest article in Philosophical Economics examines the possibility that the historical trend growth rate of real S&P 500 EPS does [more]

Sat Mar 7

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:55 PM

Re: BNSF derailment

One more! This time CN Railways in Canada.

In the early hours of this morning, yet another oil-carrying freight train derailed. Canadian National Railways says a fire continues to burn after a train carrying crude oil derailed in [more]

Fri Mar 6

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:58 AM

Re: BNSF derailment

Here are some pictures. Feel free to ignore the article. There is some stuff which you may not agree with. But if you scroll down a little bit, the article ends with some pretty good pictures of the explosion.

[more]

Wed Feb 25

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:34 PM

I eat like a six year old

Our fearless leader drinks 5 cokes every day! Eats potato sticks or ice cream for breakfast :)

Asked to explain the high-sugar, high-salt diet that has somehow enabled him to remain seemingly healthy, Buffett replies: “I checked the [more]

Sat Feb 21

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:26 AM

Re: 1 foot poles?


StevesStox:
AIG
-trades at 70 percent of a book value that is growing at 10 percent per annum.
AIG operates in one of the few industries that benefits immensely from a rate hike.
-at some point interest rates will
[more]

Thu Feb 19

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:03 PM

Re: OT: Shiller PE for EM Equity < 15


1. What has been the historical Shiller PE for EM? Is < 15 high, low or middle? Is your contention that EMs are cheap because the S PE is < US?


I don't know the historical shiller PE for the EM Equity Index. It's just [more]

Wed Feb 18

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:06 PM

OT: Shiller PE for EM Equity < 15

I stumbled upon this interactive chart that I thought might be of interest to others on this board. It is an interactive chart that plots Real Expected 10 Year Returns versus Volatility for all asset classes. It is the first time I have seen such a [more]

Wed Jan 21

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:30 AM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?

Buybacks have slowed down to a trickle ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/im...

and revenue [more]

Mon Jan 19

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:24 PM

OT: 2014 Global Wealth Pyramid

In case you are wondering where you stack up globally. Credit Suisse global wealth pyramid updated for 2014.


Wealth Range Number of adults (% if world population)

< USD 10,000 69.8%
USD 10,000 to 100,000 [more]

Fri Jan 2

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Boards Post

Zzorac posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:30 PM

OT: Fetching Stock Quotes in Excel

I am sure there are many ways to skin this cat. I had been using the MSN Stock Quote tool to import quotes into Excel for many years now. Unfortunately, the service stopped working a few days ago.

Below is a link to a solution that I found [more]

Thu Jan 1

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Boards Post

Zzorac replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:47 PM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

Highly prone to mean reversion.
Todd


Operating profit margins by quarter for the index are listed below. This data is from the S&P website. Even if we are in a long term cycle of elevated profit margins, it is likely that [more]

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One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 165
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People who have rec'd these posts 213
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 3.20
Threads Started 42
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Very First Post Google Street View Guys (11/15/2009)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 67.88 %
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