TopLineFirst

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:36 PM

Re: q. on cashcowroe

DB2: I'll be interested to see what TopLineFirst can do with it.

Sorry, not much for a now. After this post, I'll be without computer for ~2 weeks while exploring the great outdoors.

I tried a quick conversion to GTR1, but [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:10 PM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

Color me cynical, but I don't believe ANY backtests with CAGRs this high. It is simply not possible in the real world to achieve this magnitude of gain (except, perhaps, in 1-time extraordinary situations).

I agree with the above [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:06 AM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

Robbie found an error in the GTR1 input for Up5X3 that I posted here: http://boards.fool.com/have-the-ratio-of-price-to-cash-flow-...

I [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:10 AM

Re: q. on cashcowroe

mark19601962:

Even using f(y1), instead of f(ttm) for piotroski is a flaw.
I'd forgotten that one. They did add an F Score TTM field somewhere along the line, but I never examined it closely.

Does that effect the [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:32 PM

Re: q. on cashcowroe

mark19601962:

What is shareholder yield?"
Shareholder Yield = Dividend Yield + Buyback Yield
If you don't have access, let me know and I can provide you with the definitions from the SI Help module.

Also, you [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:26 PM

Re: q. on cashcowroe

not all buybacks are as "beneficial" as dividends

Stock investor recently added fields [Buyback Yield] and [Shareholder Yield] that do not consider any of the real costs Jim described for share buybacks and employee stock [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:04 PM

Re: EPS Est Up Screens

Mungofitch: Here’s an overtuned version of your screen.

It would have taken me a lot lot longer to find additional criteria that improved the original screen this much. You’ve contributed far more than tuning. Thanks!

Am I [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:21 PM

Re: EPS Est Up Screens

Mungofitch: So, my rule of thumb: never use "shrink" unless you know for sure there will always be at least 5 valid picks.

I agree with your reasoning. (I did't intend to imply otherwise before.) With shrink, results could [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:53 PM

Re: EPS Est Up Screens

Jim:

First, I sincerely appreciate your kind words. Thanks.

Given that this is a screen with a serious risk of not having enough picks, I would definitely NOT test with the "shrink" option. That makes the results wildly [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:48 AM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

Mungofitch: If somebody's up to it, I'm wondering if adding an "EBIT yield" section to the high relative value screen in place of cash flow helps or hurts. Is it any better than merely leaving out the cash flow [more]

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TopLineFirst posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:24 PM

EPS Est Up Screens

This is a partial summary of an admittedly incomplete first crack at analyzing SI EPS Estimate screens using the GTR1 backtester. I won’t be working much more on this anytime soon. So, I decided to post this and include ideas for further work at the [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:13 PM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

FLARAM: At the same time AAII changed the calculation of Cash flow/share they gave us a new field with both Depreciation and Amortization.

SI includes two fields for depreciation and amortization. The [Depreciation 12m] field comes [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:16 PM

Re: Parsimony & Bang for the Buck

Tim: Cash Flow Yield"s with both cfps.v/vprc and cfps.p/vprc, but both substantially worsened results.

I can confirm this. I tried several variations on your SoWR by industry screen yesterday. Your explanation seem plausible [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:45 PM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

have the RATIO of price to cash flow per share in the range 0-25, not the absolute cash flow per share in that range.

Oops. Sorry. No excuse. Corrected results are slightly (<1% CAGR) better using ratio(vprc,cfps.p) than using no [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:59 PM

Re: Parsimony & Bang for the Buck

Tim
who would still look at a reasonable replacement for cash flow per share if one is found

Jim's suggestion to insert VL cash flow per share might be worth a try. Based on my recent attempt, I'd suggest trying cfps.p [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:16 PM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

Mungofitch: have you tried any of the screens on GTR1 backtester using the Value Line cash flow field(s)?

Thanks for the suggestion Jim.

I did some quick analyses using Tetranomad's GTR1 version of Up5x3. I got better CAGR [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:55 PM

Re: SIPro's Cash Flow Per Share Change/Problem

Mungofitch: Surely it's not too difficult to build an SIPro field for cash flow from a definition similar to that?

Like FLARAM, I’ve tried a lot of custom fields in SIPro and none backtests as well as the original. As I recall, this [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:06 PM

Re: CashCowROE screen

(3) Leverage is calculated using the "equityy1.s" (SI Equity (Common) Y1) and "assetsy1.s" fields (SI Total Assets Y1). I'm not sure if these are in fact exactly the same as the fields that Jim used in his GTR1 VL translation [more]

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TopLineFirst replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:56 PM

Re: VL Password for GTR1 Screener

Thanks Elan! I'll give them a call. TLF

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TopLineFirst posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:01 PM

VL Password for GTR1 Screener

From rgearyiii, Post 239856
For standard VL subscribers, export all of the latest Summary and Index data to text file. Select all stocks where [Technical Rank] = 5 and [Alert] > 0 and sort them in ascending order by [Ticker Symbol]. Form [more]