ToddFinances1’s Activity

Sun Jul 20

NL

Boards Post

ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:26 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

<<Current typical US stock valuation levels are not consistent with 6.5% real total forward returns,
even if valuation multiples remain high for a long time.
That's because there just aren't enough earnings to support that return from [more]

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ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:06 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

<<So my answer to the question "Is the market overvalued", I don't have a clue. If you could tell me about our future I might take a shot at it.>>

So we know that stock prices are indirectly proportional to interest [more]

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ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:42 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

Buffett goes on in the Fortune article...

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...

(2) Corporate [more]

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ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:29 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

Fed intervention has created the lowest 30 year treasury bond yield ever (graph through around 2013). Remember how Buffett explained that stock market prices were indirectly proportional to interest rates in his 1999 Fortune article.

[more]

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ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:36 AM

Re: Is the market overvalued

<<That in turn implies the S&P overvalued by 25%. As a value investor that is certainly more than I like. But I also don't see it as nose-bleed territory>>

The problem is that the Fed has artificially kept interest rates low [more]

Fri Jul 18

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Boards Post

ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:15 AM

Re: IBM earnings out

IBM is selling for about 11x this years after tax earnings. It's undervalued AND buying back shares.

That's what you're supposed for do.

TF

Sat Jul 12

NL

Boards Post

ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:43 PM

Re: Where to put $10,000?

Mungo,

Very well stated. You put it very simply and rationally.

TF

Fri Jul 4

NL

Boards Post

ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:39 PM

Re: Seth Klarman and "The Truman Show"

Another interesting piece with charts. Take a look at margin debt as a percentage of GDP.

[more]

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ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:33 PM

Re: Seth Klarman and "The Truman Show"

<<My central expectation is flat to mildly negative real total return, but with very wide error bars.>>

[more]

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ToddFinances1 replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:20 PM

Re: Seth Klarman and "The Truman Show"

I think you're reading too much into it. I think he's simply flashing caution and that a high cash position would be a way to step aside from the madness while being prepared to act on future opportunities.

What's interesting is that Seth [more]

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Boards Post

ToddFinances1 posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:31 PM

Seth Klarman and "The Truman Show"

I wondered what the opinion was of the March piece by Seth Klarman. He uses some strong language to describe how the Fed is creating a artificial environment for asset prices by keeping rates low.

What do you think?

[more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Two stars, 250 posts
Board Posts 482
Recs Received 1975
People who have rec'd these posts 372
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 3.40
Threads Started 96
Threads Started Percentage 19.92 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Hello to All (12/24/2009)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 71.78 %
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