Rayvt’s Activity

Fri Sep 19

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:31 PM

Re: PDLI auditor dumped them

Are people here going to sell, or stick to the screen?

I'm going to do what the screen instructs me to do. If I see a track record of poor picks, I will revisit the screen construction, or leave the screen.


I did a quick [more]

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Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:47 AM

Re: GTR1: RS1M-hold3m in a small 401K universe I

The one use for timing methods would be to sense when we're in a bear market, so one can then check how bonds are doing. It's been pointed out by many authors, here and elsewhere, that bonds are very overvalued, so what happens if both stocks and [more]

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Rayvt replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:36 AM

Re: Breakout

JMO but kind of depends on the company and more particularly the management? What they are/can do with that retained $1. In some cases (Brk.) I trust management because it has a long history of not doing silly things.

Other companies it's
[more]

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Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:16 AM

Re: GTR1: RS1M-hold3m in a small 401K universe II

Starting date matters.

There is a big problem with backtests that only have data for the last several years. The problem is that the S&P500 has gone up (and up and up) for the last 5 years, with not even a whiff of a bear market. [more]

Thu Sep 18

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Rayvt replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:31 PM

Re: Breakout

We keep hoping you'll realize that it's better to have share price go up $2 than to have a dividend of $1.

Sadly, Dividend Growth Investors never seem to realize that.

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Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:41 PM

Re: OT: Retirement Account Choices

The idea was that if you suggest someone do something that works out, they mostly tend to forget to credit you for your help, but if they lose money, it's ALL your fault, since you sold them on whatever led to the loss.

Completely [more]

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Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:01 AM

Re: OT: Retirement Account Choices

I've gotten a couple of requests, so I ul'ed a copy of the paper to my dropbox account. These are the same, just formatted differently.
Don't remember where I got these, the filedate is Jan 2013.

[more]

Wed Sep 17

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 4:55 PM

Re: S&P500 - Worst N-month drawdowns

Not sure I am reading this right... but I don't think it answers the question;

It's just for background information. Don't read more into it than that.

As much to answer a question I had as anything else, but since I did it [more]

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Rayvt replied to the Retirement Investing board. 9:51 AM

Re: Legacy Investing

You can't control things from beyond the grave. If you are very very rich you could possibly get lawyers & trusts to stretch it out a couple of generations -- but I wouldn't count on it.

What's likely to happen is that some descendant [more]

Tue Sep 16

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:54 PM

Re: OT: Retirement Account Choices

Which brings me to a friend whose 401k offers exactly five index funds: US large cap; US mid-small; int'l developed; aggregate bonds; and a fixed income alternative equivalent to short treasuries (though it guarantees a positive return). There are [more]

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Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 9:34 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

When the four horsemen stalk the land, life insurance is the safest place to hide.

CC, your links talked about ins. co. solvency and reserves. I don't dispute any of that. IULs are a different beast, though, and designed for minimum [more]

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Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 8:47 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

So, you're launching from up here? Let me buy you a round when you're here!

Love to.

Several years ago we did a similar link-up in DC, TimberFool (from the Mechanical Investing board) met us at Reagan and we bummed around and [more]

NL

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Rayvt posted to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 8:32 PM

S&P500 - Worst N-month drawdowns

Below is a list of the worst 5 N-month returns for the S&P500, for a few value of N. This can be used to set your expectation of the kind of losses you will have.
In a nutshell, for short periods of time you can expect to see a worst-case [more]

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 6:46 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

Are you going to match to the IUL's liquidity safety, or am I matching my risk to your chosen strategy? Non like-to-like is a non-starter.
I have stated my base strategy. B&H the S&P500. $15,000 initial deposit, and [more]

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 2:41 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

"Risk matters. Volatility doesn't. You are still making the error of thinking volatility is risk. It isn't."
1. I disagree, *HOWEVER*
2. Fine by me... we'll ignore volatility entirely.


Heh, I think you still don't [more]

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Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 2:27 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu


Now that's funny. Can't believe the cruise director was so clueless.

Yeah, he was a new guy -- all his previous cruises had been 7-day Caribbean cruises where 99% of the people wil be back to work next Monday.

Another funny [more]

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Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 2:19 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

For those who believe, as I do, that the U.S. economy is extremely vulnerable, an IUL can provide priceless peace of mind.
You realize, don't you, that an IUL is a (complex) deriviative, and is subject to the same economic forces that the [more]

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 2:13 PM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

Where are you going this time?

Seattle, Washington | Kodiak, Alaska | Dutch Harbor, Alaska | Hokkaido, Japan | Tokyo, Japan | Nagasaki, Japan | Cheju City, South Korea | Seoul (Inchon), South Korea | Xingang (Beijing), China | [more]

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Rayvt replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:55 AM

Re: Mutual fund performances net of expense rati

...it starts on Tatooine

Apropos of nothing, when we were in Tunisia, on the bus ride into downtown Gabes from the port, I saw a road-sign that said "Tatooine". It was so cool that I took a picture.

When we got home [more]

NL

Boards Post

Rayvt replied to the Insurance - Index Universal Life board. 12:47 AM

Re: Naked B&H vs IUL, with equalized risk exposu

Unless you are proposing that risk (or whatever you want to call it these days) simply doesn't matter.

Risk matters. Volatility doesn't. You are still making the error of thinking volatility is risk. It isn't.

Both start [more]

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Big gold star, 5000 posts
Board Posts 10556
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Very First Post Re: BTD using margin accounts? (4/28/1997)
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