RandomDoc’s Activity

Fri Aug 22

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:51 PM

Re: Schiller: everything is bubbly

Jim said:

Most expensive were
Precious Metals, Non-Metallic, and Industrial Metal Mining


I have to say I was pretty shocked to see mining on the expensive list with the biggest ETF (GDX) 60% of its 2011 peak. Would be [more]

Sun Aug 17

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:49 PM

Re: OT: Wells Fargo

Jim said:
when there is a major bear market ending financials
tend to be huge outperformers from the bottom for about 2-3 months.


WFC: 250% in two months, 3/5/09 to 5/8/09. Not bad!

Sat Aug 16

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:51 AM

Re: How much longer could the bull last?

The "market" isn't a rubber-band, and there is no reason to act as if it is.

You are correct over shorter periods (< 1 year); that's when momentum carries the day. But over longer periods (3 years +), the market is [more]

Fri Aug 15

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Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:18 AM

Re: How much longer could the bull last?

Based on the posts over the last few weeks,
maybe we should change the name of this board to
Mechanical Worrying Board.


Or we could call it the Mean Reversion MI Board!

With a bull market that is 5 years old and at [more]

Thu Aug 14

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Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:43 AM

Re: ot: Bull market on last legs

Maybe the signal works better in conjunction with seasonal factors?

As a rule, no. Nothing much works in combination with seasonal factors.


But last year, you posted on using NHNL in combination with turn-of-the-month (as a [more]

Wed Aug 13

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Boards Post

RandomDoc posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:32 PM

How much longer could the bull last?

Nice article comparing the current bull to others in history like:

- Number of months without a 10% correction?
- Number of days the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above its 200-day moving average.
- Number of week with bulls in the [more]

Thu Jun 26

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:57 PM

Re: BRK Options:

my favourite slam-dunk dirt cheap picks with high premiums
aren't so dirt cheap any more even if the option premiums are still good.


I know you evaluate the richness of the premium by calculating the annualized return on the [more]

Wed Jun 25

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:29 PM

Re: Poll: Market predictions

I think this is the main reason MI works: it substantially reduces the stupid things you can do.

Very true. The wise Charlie Ellis has a great old, but timeless, article on the theme: Winning the Loser's Game. Here a quote that sums [more]

Wed Jun 11

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:05 PM

Re: January 2015 puts?

And from Mohamed El-Erian this week:

..for those who are able to, the best way to exploit the unusually low readings on the VIX is through stock options, whose pricing is unlikely to stay as attractive down the road.

[more]

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:34 AM

Re: CAPE is crapola

I think the key is to either buy a bunch of countries with low capes to diversify away the risk, or to combine it with TA, so you catch a low CAPE country when the trend is changing.

Or both! These are the two most important [more]

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:16 AM

January 2015 puts?

With VIX at the lowest levels since 2007, insurance is pretty cheap. How much does it cost to ensure a 20% maximum drawdown?

60bps! You can pay 1.18 (avg b/a) and buy puts at 157, which is roughly a 20% drop from the current price of [more]

Mon Jun 9

NL

Boards Post

RandomDoc replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:47 PM

Re: CAPE is crapola

1952 Now (86th percentile since 1955)
1182 Mid range (median)


And to save you the calculation in case you're wondering, a return to merely the median would mean a whopping ~40% drop. Hard to imagine when the market is making new [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 112
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Very First Post Re: VIX (8/18/2011)
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