NoMoreShort’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 9:17 AM

Re: ANF

kudos to Naj. the pair trade is working to a T.

i am holding on to my half position of ANF. seemingly yet another reminder of not to be a hero and call a turn. wait for the turn.

Tue Mar 3

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:49 AM

Re: PM

Nobody operates in China aside from the state owned tobacco companies.

Russia a bit tough for them with currency, but PM is actually gaining decent market share there with some other brands (Parliament?).

the story with tobacco [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:05 AM

Re: WFM Notes

hindsight is 20/20. at the time, when they are posting negative SSS and have to "invest in pricing", you wonder if the big guys finally crack the code and WFM's historic high ROIC is finally gone. without that ROIC, tripling store won't do [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:00 AM

Re: Stalwart Screen

it may not be truly cyclical, but it trades like one because people view it that way.

by people, i mean the big shops. at both places i worked for and judging by the # of sell-side notes i read, people trade INTC based on capex/depreciation [more]

Mon Mar 2

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 4:28 PM

Re: Stalwart Screen

this seems to jive with VL's median return forecast. Then again, they could be too pessimistic on the forward earning estimate (I doubt it) or multiple.

If you think 2009 multiple is low (I kinda doubt it, as 09 earnings may be depressed), [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort posted to the Last RoundUp board. 11:25 AM

PM

Phillip Morris. it's a bit of conundrum for me because of the currency issues. Underlying biz has been pretty healthy (pricing is the single most important issue longer term), but EPS expectation for '16 is down from $6+ two years ago to $4.30 today, [more]

Fri Feb 27

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:52 PM

Re: some notes on Verisign

it's not so much other competition. the model is basically government granted monopoly. if you look at historical price charts, there were a couple of big spike downs when there was concern that they wouldn't get new contract (6 years) or the new [more]

Thu Feb 26

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 11:21 AM

Re: MNDO Q4 2014 update

nice call! i was hoping for a lower multiple. oh well...

Wed Feb 25

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort posted to the Last RoundUp board. 4:22 PM

ELX

i think i wrote up this name in '13 around $6 thinking stock is worth $8+. Since then, mgmt did a super stupid deal, bought back shares at $7+ (including buying back from activists), then core biz collapsed, activists left (when I sold as well). [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 3:36 PM

Re: Marsh and McLennan (MMC)

ha, that tells you how much i know. good to know.

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 3:28 PM

Re: Marsh and McLennan (MMC)

i took a cursory look at MMC years ago, when they had that scandal. I vaguely recall that their organic growth is not very steady. It ebbs and flows with the strength/tightness of the insurance market -- intuitively, if their customers get good [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:20 PM

Fidelity’s Bright Stars

http://online.barrons.com/articles/fidelitys-bright-stars-14...

somehow i missed this issue last year. pretty awesome/accurate profile.

i was struck [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:23 PM

Re: Bought DISCA/KIRK

agree Viacom is cheaper, but i think DISCA is in a far better position with its international angle. I think one can make a case for Viacom not growing much in topline or EBIT.

KIRK should grow EPS around 20% in '15 IF momentum continues. [more]

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 11:58 AM

Re: ARO

sold. i may well regret 6 months later, but i will take 30% in less than 3 weeks.

on a side note, this market just wants/awards good news. everything else is secondary.

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:22 AM

Re: Bought DISCA/KIRK

oh, Gabelli was on CNBC earlier this week touting DISCA, and said it would be a 3 bagger the next few years. I don't know what his time horizon is, but i will happily take it.

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort posted to the Last RoundUp board. 10:21 AM

Bought DISCA/KIRK

i was wrapping up my work on DISCA over the weekend and ready to buy. Then news came out that News Corp may be looking at Discovery, and stock ran up. The old me would freeze and wait. I decided to pull a Costanza move and bought a half position [more]

Tue Feb 24

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:46 AM

Re: CIX

I looked at NL as a SOTP story, and all those stocks had big swings right around when Simmons passed away. I just looked at CIX more closely and since I knew the Assa Abloy story, the attractiveness of the biz is pretty straight forward. [more]

Mon Feb 23

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort posted to the Last RoundUp board. 2:27 PM

CIX

CIX's main biz is making locks (mechanic, electronic). pretty mundane, moderate growth, but a very nice niche business which earns surprisingly high ROIC. Even during the 08 downturn, when revenue declined 30% from $80m to $60m, op margin only [more]

Fri Feb 20

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort posted to the Last RoundUp board. 11:48 AM

CRWN

My 2nd largest position, and I have been buying more today. CRWN owns the Hallmark TV channel targeting women with family/wholesome programming. They have recently introduced more original programming, which has clearly struck a chord with their [more]

Thu Feb 19

NL

Boards Post

NoMoreShort replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:29 PM

Re: Sold BCOR for a loss

i owned it on and off a couple of times basically break-even. still was looking at it as it looked cheap on sum of parts.

this recent Q sounded pretty bad. my impression is that TaxAct will see intense price competition and may even have a [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool
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