NajdorfSicilian

Heidi Klum, supermodel

NajdorfSicilian’s Activity

Thu Dec 25

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the 77's Foolish House of Pigskin board. 11:04 PM

Re: If Favre goes to the Bucs...


Naj is still going to lose the Olsen bet though.



DING DING DING!

Winner winner lobster dinner!

Tue Dec 23

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Dropout's Den board. 4:21 PM

Re: GILD

Why would a drug company spend a fortune on R&D only to have a PBM Bar them.

Yes, this is the crux of the issue.

I have no problem with the PBM barring Harvoni if the outlook and regimen is identical, but the outlook and [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:08 PM

Re: Peter Lynch - One Up - On P/E Ratio

Naj, one day I'd like to explore your position size methodology (again)

Hey pal, this ain't grindr. Let's keep it professional.



My position sizes range from dinky to normal to Hello Sailor! based on my excitement for [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:01 AM

CSCO

Started buying yesterday, likely putting the top in.

Think this is in the 'too-cheap' category even as it goes higher.

Fwd PE 13.2x.
$33bn net cash. 23% of Mkt Cap.
7x EBITDA next 4 Qtrs.
12x P/CF
Dividend will be [more]

Mon Dec 22

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:00 PM

Re: Oil Play for Dummies


However, I also think the right way for me to think about this is that lower inflation is raising the probability that the Future Cash Flows themselves will be reduced by some amount.


However, I do not understand the [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:58 PM

Re: Oil Play for Dummies

I just don't believe that American or European projected profits/CF over 10 years will be the same regardless of low/high inflation

I would never imply such a thing. I was simply using average inflation rates to show how [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:10 PM

Re: Oil Play for Dummies


Yes, but you don't have the luxury of setting the inflation rate, interest rate or CF projections in stone for any period of time.


Thanks for the reminder...

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Dropout's Den board. 2:05 PM

Re: GILD

There's support around $92. Target 76-ish if that breaks. I would be buying there in size.

I'd be more concerned if the PBM did it for medical reasons as opposed to screw their customers and make higher margins for [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:41 PM

Re: Oil Play for Dummies

ET wrote: Perhaps P/E ratio should be higher given low interest rates. Maybe.

Maybe the right way for you to think about this is, lower inflation means your Future Cash Flows are being reduced by a smaller amount.

Honestly, [more]

Thu Dec 18

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:06 PM

Pair trade

Started long AEO short ANF today, made 71 bps.


"No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse."




~ I'll give it to Damon Runyon even if it's probably Anon.

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:03 PM

Re: off-hand remark

Not saying that what we have now is that extreme but it is getting closer every day now.

Really?! The whole market or....?

KO had a PE of what, 60? it's gone up $9 in 15 years.
MSFT is down from early 2000. [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:52 PM

Re: Google

TRIP is still below where I sold 16 months ago. With a still quite high PE that makes me nervous. They have a nice moat, but its not so large.

I guess if you figure its a takeout it may still be a hold.

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:03 PM

Re: Investing approach

Are you calculating that yourself or using a program? If so, which program? Thanks.

Google Finance - set to max or whatever date you want.


I can find exact #s on BBG, but the difference would be trivial if any in these [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:57 AM

Re: Investing approach

Note: Imagine I started in 1988 and you were an investor in my fund. If I had matched the returns of Buffett's legendary initial Coke investment over the subsequent 25 years, you as an investor would have earned 14% - 1% * .08 = 10.4%! Exactly the [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:53 AM

Re: naj - SAVE ?

Picked up some RYAAY today. Been meaning to do so for a while, no time like the present.

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:51 AM

Re: I heart Gundlach

He sure did earn it. He's been the best bond manager for the past 10 years or more. I invested with him a few months after he started DoubleLine, wish I had funded him like OakTree, whose $20m startup investment is now worth $490m and [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:37 AM

Re: Google

But both have a very serious failing, in my view, which is that they have demonstrated very little concern for actually making money for shareholders.

I find this comment inexplicable.

AMZN: +16,973% since IPO. Back [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Dropout's Den board. 11:32 AM

Re: Uber

I cannot believe you don't have a smartphone. I think the 5C is pretty much free by now.

Seriously, you cannot be this much of a luddite.

Did not get a smartphone until the iPhone 3,

Naj

Wed Dec 17

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:16 PM

Re: Baupost

Boy, that escalated quickly....

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:15 PM

Re: Google

by the way, sans a recession, we are only six and half months away from a focus on 2016 earnings...

You may need a new Warp Drive, the Wall St focus starts changing next month to 2016 EPS...

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 99.87
Player Rank 101 out of 75077
Score 10273.81
Score Change Today -8.97
Accuracy 77.64%
Active Picks 107
Total Picks 1369
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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star
Board Posts 38884
Recs Received 38956
People who have rec'd these posts 2735
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 4.10
Threads Started 6689
Threads Started Percentage 17.20 %
Most Frequent Board On Tilt
Very First Post RE: Storm Warnings1 (1/21/2000)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 34.25 %
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