NajdorfSicilian

Heidi Klum, supermodel

NajdorfSicilian’s Activity

Fri Feb 24

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Stereo 8 board. 12:13 PM

Re: ARES share price on a tear

All agreed with you, I think Ares are very sharp guys, but I would not buy them over BX or APO.

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:07 PM

Re: RH: Restoration Hardware

Huge move today, so if you got long again ahead of earnings great job. Seriously. Up 27% now.

However, I'll point out since my original bearish post it's fallen 13% versus the SPX up 18%.

And even with the bounce the past [more]

Thu Feb 23

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 12:08 PM

Re: SPY Top 10 Holdings = 19.2%

Yeah, I get Alphabet at 577bn versus 497b for MS.

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:04 PM

Re: Observations from Vulcan value 13F

That's bad polling or whatever but it is not a FakeNews.

No, you cannot just blame 'bad polling,' when there were some major pollsters saying that DJT had a 25-35% chance to win, and was favored in some others.

In [more]

Wed Feb 22

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:17 PM

Re: Observations from Vulcan value 13F

presumably the thesis is that the Dems lost.

I'd suggest that the #FakeNews that DJT had no shot at winning, the Dems were likely to take the Senate and had a chance of winning the House [!] put undue pressure on the sector.

Tue Feb 21

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:38 PM

Re: Nothing interesting to buy


Long GOOGL and ADNT.


MS initiated today, ADNT up 6%, up 15% ytd. One of my larger positions.

If you're looking at Lear, look here.

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:22 PM

Re: GILD-why Low P/E with declining sales fails

Curious, why did you close out?

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:19 PM

Re: Buying 'cheap' , sizing,scaling in/o

I think that you are conflating my posts with some other ones in this thread.

You are right! Sorry about that.

best,

Naj

Mon Feb 20

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:18 PM

Re: Buying 'cheap' , sizing,scaling in/o

Is the difference, in your mind, the initial decision? That is, you decide you are going to enter a full position in 1/3 rds over some period of time.

correct.

Certainly good to evaluate, but I'll stick to what I said [more]

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:18 PM

Re: Buying 'cheap' , sizing,scaling in/o

I think both situations should be treated the same. That is, whether the stock goes up or down after you purchase, I don't think it should matter significantly to your next decision.

I disagree. You're ignoring what the market [more]

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:46 AM

Re: Buying 'cheap' , sizing,scaling in/o

- Without averaging, then either i have to pick a perfect buy (wait for a really low level based on a multiple) or accept a not perfect price.
- Instead you could scale in 2-3 times not knowing what the low is and then scale out if you wanted
[more]

Fri Feb 17

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:55 AM

Re: Buying 'cheap' , sizing,scaling in/out,

Some quick thoughts on your long post:

Why not start with growing companies and see if they are cheap? Avoids the value traps.

Not a thing wrong with starting small and scaling in. I almost never buy a full position to start [more]

Thu Feb 16

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:30 PM

Re: CSCO

I added two days ago so you should probably sell!

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:18 PM

Re: Airlines

reason i ask. why is GM not a buy at 6x p/e

Industry competition, Uber, self-driving cars, Tesla, etc. Not saying GM isn't a buy, but I'm still passing.

There aren't just 3-4 major companies that sell cars in the [more]

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:58 PM

Re: Real retail sales

pps Another problem is that the median number of workers in the lowest quintile of income is zero in 2009. And it's zero workers today. [Source: Bls.gov]

So, for 20% of the population, you had no job then and [more]

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:52 PM

Re: Real retail sales

most households--to be stagnant. Indeed, that's what's been happening for some time.

This is wholly false.

[Except for the unwritten part where household size has been steadily falling since 1970, data of which has [more]

Wed Feb 15

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Stereo 8 board. 4:52 PM

Re: Little too early 2016 prediction review

'Their appeal is just becoming...more selective.'

Well, I'm a happy 4th for golf then.

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Stereo 8 board. 3:23 PM

Re: Little too early 2016 prediction review

5) The Stereo 8 board will grow from ET's estimated 4 or 5 readers to 6 or 7 readers.

I am guessing no. When we look back in 10 years and have made a lot in the alts, the celebration will be a small one.


Jeez, you coulda [more]

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:18 PM

Airlines

I'll never understand how we can identify stocks that are going up 50 pts before Buffett buys them or more.

Although I guess his loss-aversion to this sector probably played a huge role. We're only human. But we've been talking [more]

NL

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:42 PM

Re: What is our stop-loss

No.

20% ish for any short-term position. LT holdings I re-underwrite and see what I get.

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CAPS Player Rating 99.84
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Score 11589.46
Score Change Today -30.65
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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star
Board Posts 39928
Recs Received 40647
People who have rec'd these posts 2747
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 6.00
Threads Started 6841
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Very First Post RE: Storm Warnings1 (1/21/2000)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 35.02 %
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