NajdorfSicilian

Heidi Klum, supermodel

NajdorfSicilian’s Activity

Fri Jul 20

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:57 PM

Re: The Iron Condor

If one was sophisticated enough to predict future volatility and take advantage of temporary spikes in vol - to the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s on the VIX, that might be one thing. But TMFers assuredly are not.

Selling vol at ~12 today is [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:46 PM

Re: The Iron Condor

Given that the option markets are arbitrage-free, and that any stock option can be replicated with the underlying [index] and T-bills/borrowing, there is no 'free lunch' by writing options nor has there ever been.

An option strategy [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:37 PM

Re: OKTA insider selling

If you look back when Amazon was selling for $100 or $200 you'll find 50 or 60 insider sales a quarter

But you won't find people exercising options over 5 years early to sell, either.

Which was the entire point of my [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:29 AM

Re: Retention rate and recurring revenue

Their subscription business is growing about 55% to 60% while their legacy business is pretty stationary. Their subscription business has 90% Gross Margins, while their legacy business has 15% margins. After three years their subscription business [more]

Thu Jul 19

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NajdorfSicilian posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:51 PM

Adobe Systems: worth a look

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/19/why-adobe-systems-...

As GM mentioned, Adobe has been growing at 25%, stock has 5x the [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:01 PM

Re: Retention rate and recurring revenue

For a concrete example of how they differ, consider Pivotal:

Last quarter their subscription revenue was 58% of total revenue (up from 44% a year ago). That's their recurring revenue, at 58% of total revenue.

Their
[more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:44 PM

Re: OKTA insider selling

and, fwiw, ProofPoint insiders did the same thing yesterday. Everyone in the space realizing the overvaluation, perhaps?

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:43 PM

OKTA insider selling

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306938/000120919118...

Looks like the CFO exercised 15k options at $1.4 and sold at $53, nice [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:41 PM

Re: Hedge funds, Delivering Alpha: what a racket

1) Almost no hedge funds charge 2/20. Yes, the fees are 'high.'

2) Hedge funds actually hedge long positions with short positions, their goal is not to match the S+P which is 100% long large-cap stacks.

3) Most hedge funds [more]

Wed Jul 18

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Stereo 8 board. 11:01 AM

Re: Higher Mgmt Fees

The worst mistake you can make is not investing enough in a great idea ~ J. Robertson

Tue Jul 17

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:37 PM

Lone Pine

New #1 position is MSFT, fwiw.

To their credit, Mandel and co have been investing in cloud/SaaS stocks for a while now.

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 3:22 PM

Re: face plant

Oh it's definitely quite uncommon, I couldn't agree more. But as others have said, spending high upfront in a 'land grab' strategy where you wind up with sticky clients that automatically subscribe and don't care about the 5-8% [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Against The Spread board. 3:19 PM

Re: Ban on state sports betting overturned

That's correct 0EV hedges are good because they are +EG especially with longshots. Unfortunately the market was heavy on France so, ya know.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 11:13 AM

Re: face plant

Difference is, Bezos actually invested for the long-term.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Against The Spread board. 11:12 AM

Re: Ban on state sports betting overturned

Yes, the sticky is still there!

Thu Jul 12

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Against The Spread board. 7:14 PM

Re: Ban on state sports betting overturned

My Croatia to win WC bet at 35-1 looking good. Let it ride or hedge out for an 11x return do you think?

Tue Jul 10

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Climate Change board. 5:54 PM

Re: #Fake Records

Appeals to authority: In this case, to some random website to discredit another person - is a well-known logical fallacy.

You're entitled to your own opinion but not your own set of facts:

Those thermometers are situated in [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:03 PM

PENN

Penn National gaming recently acquired Pinnacle Casinos [Ameristar, Boomtown, etc] to form the largest regional casino firm in the US.

They estimate $100m of cost savings the first two years, and have re-affirmed that very confidently. [more]

Mon Jul 9

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:32 PM

Re: Tintri: A lesson

they have a 90 Promoter score, which means their customers don't just like them, but LOVE them,

PSTG's valuation requires a significant amount of new clients going forward, not just love, errr.....LOVE from their existing [more]

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Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:24 PM

Re: value trap or not

Most Amazon series are on par with NFLX's series imho, some better some worse, both put out some bad crap.

You forgot the kindle. I have several hundred books on my kindle now, something I would have sworn would never, ever happen. Go to [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 99.78
Player Rank 158 out of 69784
Score 12681.22
Score Change Today +41.17
Accuracy 76.25%
Active Picks 45
Total Picks 1502
Best Pick NFLX (+445.18)
Worst Pick TQQQ.DL (-365.07)
Average Score per Pick 8.44
Charms Earned 14
Highest Rated Favorite ClientNine
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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool
Board Posts 40517
Recs Received 42540
People who have rec'd these posts 2964
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 12.50
Threads Started 6919
Threads Started Percentage 17.08 %
Most Frequent Board On Tilt
Very First Post RE: Storm Warnings1 (1/21/2000)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 35.59 %
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