MrWaddles’ Activity

Mon Nov 24

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:14 PM

Re: Appaloosa Portfolio

Naj,

But explain then the low beta/volatility effect, which can be emulated with the concave return profile that you just mentioned (selling covered calls on the market portfolio). Sure the profile looks crappy but long-term returns argue [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 10:08 AM

Re: Part 2 Rodriguez: new great recession coming

aleax,

Despite Hussman's bearish tenor over the past while - I believe his fundamental analysis is reasonable and supported by GMO etc (Grantham and Montier).

Philosophical Economics (PE) does write some interesting things which [more]

Sat Nov 22

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Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:23 AM

Re: McDonald's (MCD)

kelbon,

My view is not quite as dour as yours but the points against stagnation are valid and one would question this as a "stock pick". I own it as part of a portfolio strategy, which weighs factors beyond valuation and eps [more]

Thu Nov 20

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Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Value Hounds board. 6:48 PM

What would your prefer: Follow Up

I forgot about this post I made back in Jan'13:

Let's say you have the option of buying the SPY or stock X, which has a beta of 1. (You don't use beta? lets just say its no more/less volatile than the overall market) ....

[more]

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MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:28 PM

Re: Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

MonsterFluff,

It seems to me it does fit the contrarian-type trade. Seems like I'm in that pickle also with QCOM right now, which entered the portfolio when I closed out the LO investment due to the acquistion premium from RAI.

I [more]

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MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:09 PM

Re: Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

Denny,

This is coming from someone who is a fan of "complexity" economics???

I even teased you on the endowment-related post on the implied reference to Hurst exponentials and power laws when it comes to volatility -- [more]

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Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:02 PM

Re: Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

kelbon,

As for MCD, I agree; there's tons to complain about, but I don't think the company's unsatisfactory results have been adequately reflected by the stock price, more a shrug and not a compelling buying opportunity by any [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Value Hounds board. 1:29 PM

Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

Having some fun today researching and pilfering RA's papers for ideas and thought this would be a good share:

From Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates)

"It will surprise most readers to learn that the value tilt is empirically a [more]

Mon Nov 17

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 2:20 PM

Re: Lessons From The Top Endowments

Denny,

Coming out of the wood works on this one. Reading the book might be helpful to see if its similar to your own style. I'm familiar with Faber's work and to me it is opposite of what you are describing. His point was own a diversified [more]

Tue Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:40 PM

Re: Do you use price targets?

what I wrote was a bit akward but didn't want to spend too much time editing. it was more stiff than intended. thanks for understanding.

the reality is I use a firm based P/B or better EV/IC. I've found it does a reasonable job of valuing [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:56 PM

Re: Do you use price targets?

Forgot to mention --

when I update M*'s value -- I've been recording any changes (not diligent enough to date changes)

for instance since Dec '12 when I started this:

NOC: ~Current Price $125 (My est. FV is [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:46 PM

Re: Do you use price targets?

Yes. I use them as a relative valuation tool in a larger ranking system.

For instance I have JNJ pegged around $105 and its trading at $100. But I also own JNJ because of its low twelve-month trailing volatility, above market dividend yield, [more]

Thu Sep 25

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 10:58 AM

Re: BBBY and a Request

If BBBY had paid a dividend, in the amount they spent on buybacks over the last year, at $67 a share, the dividend yield would be almost 9%. (They spent about $6 per share on buybacks; just about all the cash attributable to [more]

Wed Sep 24

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Value Hounds board. 11:04 AM

BBBY and a Request

BBBY over the past 6 months has repurchased $1.3 billion in stock. In the last quarter (just reported last night) it repurchased $1.0 billion of the $1.3 billion. The company took on $1.5 billion in debt this quarter as well, previously no debt was [more]

Fri Sep 12

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:21 PM

Re: stalwart screen

MartianRtns,


Hmmm. MSFT at the bottom of the reversion to mean PE rank? I'm guessing the 5 year period hurts non-cyclical type businesses more given a more of a depressed "P" than "E" over the early period and [more]

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Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 3:56 PM

Re: Is the Shiller CAPE So High?

Ralph,

The P/E is independent of # shares outstanding.

Just to draw a distinction -- PE1 yes -- PE10 no. CAPE is impacted by share buybacks because you are averaging earnings per share over 10 years but using the current [more]

Thu Sep 11

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 1:29 PM

Re: Alibaba anyone?

Pricing range is $61-$66 last I saw.


Prof Damodaran has been tracking its valuation since SEC filings have been made. His latest valuation is here:

[more]

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Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 8:51 AM

Re: Is the Shiller CAPE So High?

kelbon,

no worries -- interesting discussion. i made the points i wanted to. i think several of your points are ones that i clump into the scarcity of safe assets which is an issue that many haven't looked at too much. still real gdp growth [more]

Wed Sep 10

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 8:33 AM

Re: Is the Shiller CAPE So High?

I for one think the Shiller CAPE is high at 26X. Not many times except for late 20's and late 90's has it been this high. The interest rate story doesn't hold unless you believe future returns are also low as interest rates foretell future economic [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 326
Recs Received 1072
People who have rec'd these posts 198
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 60
Threads Started Percentage 18.40 %
Most Frequent Board Value Hounds
Very First Post A IV Value Central post. (2/2/2007)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 92.64 %
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