MrWaddles’ Activity

Mon Jan 5

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:15 PM

Re: Index benchmarks

DTB,

## you could look at active share as a way to differentiate your portfolio to the benchmark -- such as the S&P 500/Russell 2000 etc. the calculation isn't that difficult and offers some interesting fodder when thinking about active [more]

Tue Dec 30

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:44 PM

Re: Revisiting the Place Your Bets thread

Practice whatever flavor of reversion floats your boat, but a rolling stream of gently slowing earnings growth is not the claim that thread was about.

What if we focus on the what Hussman has made with that 4-year chart -- a [more]

Mon Dec 29

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Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:47 PM

Revisiting the Place Your Bets thread

Doing some year-end review and thought it would be good to revisit howardroark’s “Place Your Bets” mean reversion tease*. (My response was honestly pitiful and will try to make up for it despite my lack of wit.)

The “mean” as of 3/27/2013 [more]

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Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:10 AM

Re: Undue sell off

Replying to myself since this "arbitrage" question has been on my mind:

Here is a note from Michael Mauboussin on the subject from a 2005 note while at Legg Mason (titled: Capital Ideas Revisited)

Arbitrage is the [more]

Wed Dec 24

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 5:31 PM

Re: The egg cracks

The stock had rallied 47% this year through Tuesday's close, compared with a 13% rise in the S&P 500.

Yup -- not a bad call, not a bad call at all if we are calling out posters stock ideas!


Matthew

Tue Dec 23

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:59 AM

Re: Undue sell off

kelbon,

Ouch -- I think we are jumping the gun and being over-critical. Denny didn't define how the opportunity would be exploited just that one was likely created given a perceived mispricing.

Clearly if an investor felt [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:33 AM

Re: Peter Lynch - One Up - On P/E Ratio

BenGrahamMan,


A PE ratio can be influenced by many factors. Growth is only one of them. The firm's profitability relative to cost of capital is another big one. Then looking forward at the firm's competitive advantage period you blend [more]

Mon Nov 24

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:14 PM

Re: Appaloosa Portfolio

Naj,

But explain then the low beta/volatility effect, which can be emulated with the concave return profile that you just mentioned (selling covered calls on the market portfolio). Sure the profile looks crappy but long-term returns argue [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 10:08 AM

Re: Part 2 Rodriguez: new great recession coming

aleax,

Despite Hussman's bearish tenor over the past while - I believe his fundamental analysis is reasonable and supported by GMO etc (Grantham and Montier).

Philosophical Economics (PE) does write some interesting things which [more]

Sat Nov 22

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 11:23 AM

Re: McDonald's (MCD)

kelbon,

My view is not quite as dour as yours but the points against stagnation are valid and one would question this as a "stock pick". I own it as part of a portfolio strategy, which weighs factors beyond valuation and eps [more]

Thu Nov 20

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Value Hounds board. 6:48 PM

What would your prefer: Follow Up

I forgot about this post I made back in Jan'13:

Let's say you have the option of buying the SPY or stock X, which has a beta of 1. (You don't use beta? lets just say its no more/less volatile than the overall market) ....

[more]

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MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:28 PM

Re: Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

MonsterFluff,

It seems to me it does fit the contrarian-type trade. Seems like I'm in that pickle also with QCOM right now, which entered the portfolio when I closed out the LO investment due to the acquistion premium from RAI.

I [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:09 PM

Re: Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

Denny,

This is coming from someone who is a fan of "complexity" economics???

I even teased you on the endowment-related post on the implied reference to Hurst exponentials and power laws when it comes to volatility -- [more]

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Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 6:02 PM

Re: Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

kelbon,

As for MCD, I agree; there's tons to complain about, but I don't think the company's unsatisfactory results have been adequately reflected by the stock price, more a shrug and not a compelling buying opportunity by any [more]

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Value Hounds board. 1:29 PM

Sourcing Alpha: Do the Contratrade

Having some fun today researching and pilfering RA's papers for ideas and thought this would be a good share:

From Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates)

"It will surprise most readers to learn that the value tilt is empirically a [more]

Mon Nov 17

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Value Hounds board. 2:20 PM

Re: Lessons From The Top Endowments

Denny,

Coming out of the wood works on this one. Reading the book might be helpful to see if its similar to your own style. I'm familiar with Faber's work and to me it is opposite of what you are describing. His point was own a diversified [more]

Tue Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:46 PM

Re: Do you use price targets?

Yes. I use them as a relative valuation tool in a larger ranking system.

For instance I have JNJ pegged around $105 and its trading at $100. But I also own JNJ because of its low twelve-month trailing volatility, above market dividend yield, [more]

Wed Sep 24

NL

Boards Post

MrWaddles posted to the Value Hounds board. 11:04 AM

BBBY and a Request

BBBY over the past 6 months has repurchased $1.3 billion in stock. In the last quarter (just reported last night) it repurchased $1.0 billion of the $1.3 billion. The company took on $1.5 billion in debt this quarter as well, previously no debt was [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 339
Recs Received 1127
People who have rec'd these posts 205
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 4.70
Threads Started 62
Threads Started Percentage 18.29 %
Most Frequent Board Value Hounds
Very First Post A IV Value Central post. (2/2/2007)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 92.63 %
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