Manlobbi’s Activity

Thu Jul 10

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:56 PM

Re: Where to put $10,000?

Saying that the market is "manifestly overpriced" is just an opinion
and an implicit prediction.


There are two things wrong about this. Firstly, it is not an opinion
that the market is overpriced but something that [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:48 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

Manlobbi, I would appreciate if you could elaborate on the difference in the expected growth of book value between Berkshire and Markel.
4% are maybe too much to be explained alone by the difference in size and the resulting bigger pool of
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:55 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

They usually either make assumptions about compounding earnings growth, or, in some cases (like Markel), book value. Then they guess at the multiple the market will assign at a point in the future. With these two figures they project what the [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:11 AM

Re: robots on this board?

I worked with a really good astrobiologist 12 years ago to create robot reports that generated random stars and planets with correct temperatures and likely compounds based on star size and type, then created a variety of life forms where [more]

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Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:52 AM

Re: IV10/Price Update

>Manlobbi
>Value Line

Kelbon, I do not understand this comparison. You have just copy
pasted my table and labelled the second as Value Line, changing only
my 10 year book value growth to 5 years. The concept of comparing [more]

Wed Jul 9

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:26 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

>It’s based on not one, but two, best guesses. The first guess being how
>quickly book value, or earnings, will compound. The second guess being
>how the market will value those earnings (or, book value) at a given
>date in [more]

Tue Jul 8

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:40 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

Hi John,

What you are doing is rather similar. I presume you meant to write "based on the supplied iv10 and price" rather than "iv0 and iv10".

I formatted the simple approach actually starting with something [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:09 PM

IV10/Price Update

I have just done some valuations of different
companies. The way I invest is to calculate intrinsic value
10 years away and compare to current price. It is amazingly
simple, but I don't know anyone who uses this metric 100%
to [more]

Wed May 28

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:21 AM

Re: OT: Who is buying?

According to the most recent CapitalIQ data, the single biggest buyer
of stocks in the first quarter were none other than the companies of the
S&P500 itself, which cumulatively repurchased a whopping $160 billion of
their own
[more]

Tue May 27

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:32 AM

Re: Mostly OT: Scared of living too long?

>Clearly the evil one preventers..

The median income also increased at a higher rate than CPI.

http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.php

If [more]

Mon May 26

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:04 PM

Re: Mostly OT: Scared of living too long?

>I did not move at all. I live in New Jersey. I bought this house
>in 1976. Since then, my real estate tax increased from $800/year to a
>little over $5600/year. Now it is 7x what it was then.

I'm amazed how CPI is ignored [more]

Wed May 21

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:07 PM

Re: WFC to increase capital distribution

But this is actually pretty bad news, the more I think about it.

With higher payout ratios, that's less reinvested, an acknowledgement
of a lessened ability to deploy capital at high rates of return, one
step closer to being
[more]

Mon May 19

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 3:51 PM

Re: long term p/b average for MKL

A story just like the story of "Low-calorie OJ".
Take 32 oz of OJ.
Add 32 oz of water.
Sold to you as 64 oz of "Low-calorie OJ".


The difference with the purchase of the bond portfolio
by Markel [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:09 PM

Re: AT&T buys DirecTV for $48.5 billion

Anyone else have any insight on why DTV shares aren't up close to $95 today?

It is not simple a $95 buy-out because the price will depend on
AT&T's stock price when the deal closes. I haven't been able to
work out when the [more]

Thu May 15

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:48 AM

Re: Buffett supporting a cause he believes in

This is not only off topic but potentially could wind up
consuming the board.

One of the best things about a message board is that one
idea provokes another idea. When working on topic, this is
wonderful.

When working [more]

Tue May 13

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 2:24 PM

Re: good quarter

>Good work! Let us know how they respond, if you don't mind.

The letter reached both Gayner and Markel and the feedback
passed back was that the points raised were good ones and
consequently noted. I did send a more detailed [more]

Thu May 8

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 4:34 PM

Re: good quarter

I appreciate the charitable analysis, but the fact is I misattributed it. My handwritten notes reflect that Markel made the comment about immunizing shareholders against dilution. Attributing it to Gayner when I typed them up was a mistake on my [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 11:54 AM

Re: good quarter

> either he believes it (and so, is not an expert capital allocator), or
>he doesn't believe it, but says it anyways (and so, is dishonest). I
>don't see any third option, do you?

The rounding question was not about [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 10:57 AM

Re: good quarter

The only thing I didn't like is that they claim a 4% increase in book value per share for the first quarter in their press release and I am calculating it at just over 3.5% (actually, 3.52%). That rounds to 4%, but I would prefer they report it [more]

Sat Apr 26

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:17 PM

Re: Buffett votes "abstain"...

I believe Buffett acted in the best interest of Shareholders
while reducing (though not minimising) the moral hazard by publicly not
supporting the decision.

Voting against the compensation would do more harm than good [more]

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