Manlobbi’s Activity

Fri Dec 8

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 8:08 PM

'Aggregate IV10' mental model

Investors are invariable conscious of how their invested equity
grows over time. When the market's mood becomes sour, one observes
the fall in equity but it is equally offset by the knowledge of
the investments' long term [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 5:43 PM

Re: Steadfast candidate: Metro Bank plc

Thank you LongbeardRanger for this interesting Steadfast candidate and
for the insights. It is great that you calculated everything in the perfect
order, firstly establishing Steadfastness, then coming up with a model
for IV0 (intrinsic [more]

Fri Dec 1

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 1:38 PM

Re: OK, I'm out at $827. I figured I'd hold for

(July 2015)
Markel Corporation
Price today 830
IV10/Price 3.16

The IV10/Price describes what multiple your wealth will increase
by over 10 years. It underestimates it slightly because you typically
don't sell at
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 1:33 PM

Markel

Just following up on this post (July 2015)
http://boards.fool.com/indeed-the-attractiveness-of-markel-a...

Price today $830
IV10/Price
[more]

Sun Nov 12

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 11:46 AM

Current high IV10/price positions

My current positions, showing the current IV10/price ratios,
are as follows:

Percent of
total holdings IV10/price
Brookfield Asset Management 57% 3.6
W. R. Berkley Corp 13% 3.1
Alibaba Group Holding 12% [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 11:40 AM

Re: Tools to help find high IV10/price firms

Thanks DTBoojum for pointing to Tesla's share issuance being so
high, I didn't 'zoom into' Tesla's situation in my
musings as I just found it so staggering the extent
of their share issuance - far more than Amazon. It [more]

Sat Nov 4

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:13 PM

Re: Amapozoni

While I am sympathetic to arguments about Amazon not being very sanely valued, I think
labeling it as a ponzi scheme is a bit extreme. There is a very strong underlying
business model there, generating economic earnings, with the
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:45 AM

Amapozoni

Ponzi schemes require ongoing confidence and
continually new people entering to keep them
going. Whilst they are going, they pay money back to
existing participants and thus in this sense have
a functioning economic foundation, at [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 10:13 AM

Tools to help find high IV10/price firms

Rather than tracking your portfolio each day, try to put efforts
into the bigger picture of trying to find better opportunities.
You only need one IV10/price Steadfast situation every two years
to do phenomenally well as an investor, and [more]

Wed Nov 1

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:23 PM

Re: CBI Reports Q3

With all due respect, I think either your method or your CBI-specific inputs
are/were bad. I think you got lucky on those prior trades


I do agree with you commoncents on the CBI specific inputs, though the method wasn’t the [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:23 PM

Re: CBI Reports Q3

It more than reasonable to use lower multiples and earnings estimates
for CBI than the $2.50 earnings and 10 multiple. There is a lot
(abundantly) to be said for the model being consistent between the
point of purchase and the point of [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 10:30 AM

Re: CBI Latest IV10 Analysis

Now you indicate that CBI is not steadfast. When did that change occur? How does
one determine that a company is or is not, or was and now isn't steadfast?


It is a good point, and indeed Steadfastness is very much a [more]

Tue Oct 31

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:57 PM

Re: CBI Reports Q3

As CBI offers more drama and entertainment than a lot of sitcoms endeavour
to achieve, I have posted some commentary on the "Manlobbi's Descent" board:

The day after the Q3 earnings call at 4pm, CBI traded 6% [more]

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Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 6:13 PM

Re: CBI Latest IV10 Analysis

The day after the Q3 earnings call at 4pm, CBI traded 6% higher
at the open, and then fell to 14% by the end of trading, with
no additional news. Note that this was about 18-24 hours after
the earnings announcement, so there will have [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:53 PM

Re: CBI Reports Q3

Goelle: The Technology sale which management stated should complete by end of November and exceed $2 Billion -- so the technology piece seems to exceed the entire market value of the company.

DTBoojum: There is an error in your [more]

Wed Oct 25

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 6:03 AM

Re: Brookfield recent performance

Aren't you missing a dividend? If you're looking at 3 years of growth, say, end 2013 to end 2016, and then talking the third root, then there should also be 3 dividends, plus the spinoff.

Well spotted DTBoojum, there was the [more]

Tue Oct 24

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 3:51 PM

Re: Welcome

I haven’t attempted to calculate actual BRK and BAM historical
IV10/prices, but I wonder if the actual swings in IV10/price have
been more extreme (substantially greater than the 3.8 to 3.2 example)
-- enough to justify the “going to
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 2:19 PM

Recent book value performance

Some Brookfield Asset Management action adventures:
http://boards.fool.com/brookfield-recent-performance-3287190...

- Manlobbi

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Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 2:16 PM

Brookfield recent performance

Three colleagues and friends have been understandably lamenting about
Brookfield Asset Management's book value per share seeming relatively
stagnant over the last few years.

It is not as bad as it looks with the main reason being [more]

Thu Oct 12

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Manlobbi's Descent board. 4:53 PM

Re: Welcome

I'm on a plane and find this is a great place to write these kinds of posts..
Being above the clouds helps you to keep the big picture in mind.

>Any thoughts on the relative performance of a "lazy" variant [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 91.20
Player Rank 6216 out of 70657
Score 1390.02
Score Change Today +17.41
Accuracy 90.00%
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Big red star, 1000 posts
Board Posts 1358
Recs Received 9095
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Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 311
Threads Started Percentage 22.90 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post View individual year's backtesting (11/13/1999)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 76.80 %
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