Manlobbi’s Activity

Tue May 12

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:18 PM

Re: OT: L

What does that mean? When growth stocks make oodles of money, that's the sign of market peak?

The idea of a bubble is that people become interested in price
gains for the sake of price gains. The price gains fuel [more]

Mon May 11

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:14 AM

Re: Brookfield Snowball

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) IV10/price summary:

BAM book value per share, 2005 to 2014
6.70 9.28 11.38 8.58 11.18 20.50 27.04 29.03 28.89 32.57
9 year average: Growth of 19% per year

BAM price to book, 2005 to [more]

Sun May 10

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:13 PM

Re: Brookfield Snowball

Thanks for expressing appreciation, but don't take the iv10/price
score seriously yet as I am still working through it as a draft.

I have various concerns before purchasing a large amount of
the company, not so much with their [more]

Sun Apr 26

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Brookfield Asset Management board. 9:32 AM

Recent $4.4b raising - video interview

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/50e9ed0d-276b-4cce-b1...

Brookfield's management rarely give interviews and there was not much detail about [more]

Sat Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 11:45 AM

Re: Valuation based on investments per share

>Adding the two gives 1335 + 68 = 1403. This is well above the current
>price of less than 800.
>The combined ratio for MKL has been consistently below 100. So if
>Berkshire's investments per share are assigned face value, [more]

Thu Apr 16

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:29 PM

Re: Mutual Funds

I would look at the nature of the earnings across your portfolio,
how the earnings are sustained (what variables they depend on).
Go through all the companies and subsidiaries that you own
at least roughly and write down their approx.
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:41 AM

Re: Mutual Funds

>Mathematically you get the biggest diversification advantage when you
>add a second asset to a one asset pool. Nearly all diversification
>advantage is gained by the time the asset pool has five different
>assets be they [more]

Sun Apr 5

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:30 PM

Re: BRK is a hedge!

>If the economy and the stock market go down by 50%, BRK's stocks and
>its own stock go down by 50%, and its companies do not do as well, but
>it has a large (~50 billion) amount of cash to invest in companies,
>stocks, and [more]

Sat Mar 21

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:38 PM

For those starting their own business

Some inspiration for those starting their own business. Here is
a picture of the first ever Walmart (1962).

[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:09 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

By writing about the eps multiple I was referring to the value. The author is taking out dividends from the total return and thinking of this isolated eps as the value, thus in recent times where there is a higher eps and lower dividend, thinking [more]

Fri Mar 20

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:55 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

But what's still not clear to me is your comment about this not having any impact on valuation. In my example, the 2020 yearend price is scenario 1 (6% eps growth, no dividend) is 212.78. Justifiably higher than the 2020 yearnd price of 168.92 in [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:10 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

>It is marginally better to have the non-dividend
>paying tax if dividend tax is higher than the capital gain tax, and
>vise versa if it is the other way around.

This statement is not right, as the capital gains tax is [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:34 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

>Price appreciation is 168-92 - 150 = 18.92. Sum of dividends for 6
>years is 38.61. Total cumulative return is 57.53 for a CAGR of 5.56%.
>The second result is 0.44% per year lower than the first one. Gap in
>performance [more]

Thu Mar 19

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:00 AM

Re: Buffett investment in 1959

>In which year were the partnership interests converted to Berkshire
>shares?

1969, closing down after 13 years.

>If somebody had invested $10K in a Buffett partnership in 1959, never
>paid taxes and never sold [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:16 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

>Manlobbi - Your comment about this having no effect on valuation
>doesn't seem right to me. All other factors being equal, real earnings
>growing at 6% with no dividends will lead to a higher total return and
>therefore [more]

Wed Mar 18

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:34 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

About dividends lower in recent decades distoring the CAPE ratio
present overvaluation, this is often accounted for my Shiller by
quoting more event CAPE ratio levels as comparisons. In his talks he
sometimes shows the avatage CAPE [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:01 AM

Re: OT: S&P500 Real Earnings Growth Rate

An argument that a reduced dividend can be substituted with a an increased eps is rational and sound. However it has utterly no effect on valuation. The real historic earnings increase of 1.5% is not what constites the value but rather the sum [more]

Mon Feb 16

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 4:22 PM

Re: Book value and price history

>Are you saying you think 1.7 times book is the "proper" price?

I think 1.7 is about right, in the sense that I expect book value
per share to grow over 15 years quite ahead of the S&P500, so
a 70% premium is not a [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Markel Corporation board. 3:48 PM

Book value and price history

I have produced this chart that shows a fixed multiple of the book
value per share and the price over the last last 22 years for Markel:

[more]

Fri Feb 13

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 11:39 PM

Re: Markel Ventures

>Have you looked at why Net Income is so small compared to the EBITDA?

This was one-off write-down which does not relate to cash actually
being generated. The sustainable EBITDA is the figure that
we care about as that is the [more]

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 90.41
Player Rank 7217 out of 75251
Score 863.44
Score Change Today +4.84
Accuracy 80.00%
Active Picks 9
Total Picks 11
Best Pick AAPL (+654.00)
Worst Pick WRB (-6.65)
Average Score per Pick 78.49
Charms Earned 9
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to Manlobbi’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts CAPS All Star
Board Posts 1214
Recs Received 6887
People who have rec'd these posts 1539
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 278
Threads Started Percentage 22.90 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post View individual year's backtesting (11/13/1999)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 74.05 %
Show Manlobbi’s 10 Latest Posts