Manlobbi’s Activity

Thu Nov 13

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:03 PM

Balloons

I just noticed the 10th year anniversary balloons in front
of my name. Thank you to everyone for helping to make these
10 years so stimulating and interesting.


- Manlobbi

Wed Nov 12

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:04 AM

Berkley Corporation under-reporting by $5

William Berkley from Berkley Corporation, one of the most respected
Insurers amongst all peers, disclosed $5 per share of book value not
reported in the most recent $37 per share figure, bringing true book
value per share to $42. I [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the W.R. Berkley Corporation board. 6:47 AM

$5 per share disclosure

Important disclosure in the recent conference call. William Berkley said
that there is more than $5 per share on the book that is not provided in
the current book value per share figure. In the Q&A section he was asked
to clarify [more]

Thu Nov 6

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:28 AM

Re: OT new highs and lows

>Or, go buy Apple...

I had recommended Apple a year and a half ago following this IV10/price
analysis when the price was around 3.5, but now the ratio has moved
right down to 2.17. The business' prospects have not changed, but [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Markel Corporation board. 11:07 AM

Q & A notes

It was a really short Q & A session in the conference call and I
tried to capture all of them. These notes are simplified but close
to live. I have never tried doing this but I can type fast and it
worked pretty well - I got 90% of [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:32 AM

Re: OT new highs and lows

This situation is a good example of how the IV10/price method of
buying and selling works well. Just compare IV at year 10 to
the current price.

It does care about what the price did lately, but it doesn't
magnify excessive [more]

Sun Nov 2

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:42 AM

Berkshire's terrorism exposure

While unlikely over the next year, or the year after, such an
event is not only possible but reasonably likely as long as
a sufficient period is considered - for example, over 20 years
it is quite possible, and over say 40 years it might [more]

Sun Oct 26

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 10:26 AM

Re: Jefferies Investor Day Notes

>BF: The beauty of what we have is if we just build on the company today
>we can have good growth. We don’t want to do deals at the top of the
>market that will put a lot of goodwill on our balance sheet.

Goodwill is [more]

Sat Oct 25

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 8:48 AM

Re: Jefferies Oct 9 2014 Investor Day

My attention was on the shares outstanding for Jefferies, which was
the subject of their charts and reports, not Leucadia as a whole.

Compared to Leucadia, Jefferies' shares outstanding from 2002 to 2012
were quite more [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 8:03 AM

Re: Jefferies Oct 9 2014 Investor Day

In the recent Jefferies Investors Day presentation ..
http://www.leucadia.com/jef_investor_day_october_2014_final_...
.. they showed that Jefferies' [more]

Wed Oct 22

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:13 AM

Re: IV10/price update, includes IBM

DTBoojum, these are good points. I do my best to explain.

>I would prefer to give them the same multiple, but, given Apple's
>higher risk, limit my exposure. Put another way, the central estimate
>of Apple's returns would [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:24 AM

IV10/price update, includes IBM

Below is an update of the IV10/price (intrinsic value as it would be
calculated if we were sitting down now 10 years in the future, divided
by the market price today) for various firms. I have posted in
the past the scores for these and [more]

Mon Oct 20

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:32 AM

Re: OT: IBM..."It’s a terrible mista

Things are weird lately. The money coming out of stocks has to go
somewhere.


There is a common feeling that when one asset class goes down in
value, it is because the public is taking money out of that asset
class
, [more]

Sun Oct 19

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Google, Inc. board. 3:19 AM

Increased selling and administrative costs

Google's revenue grew about 20% per year for the last 2 years
and the gross earnings also grew 20% per year. However the
earnings grew only 10% per year.

I am trying to reconcile the difference and in the income statement
the two [more]

Fri Oct 17

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 9:12 AM

Re: Shiller on Investment Banking

The Investment Banking lecture actually starts 23.30, the earlier part is the continuation of a regulations lecture.

- Manlobbi

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 8:33 AM

Shiller on Investment Banking

As owners of Jefferies we should have heightened curiosity to learn more about the investment banking business. It is hard to beat Shiller's informal, curiosity filled and intuitive style of lecturing, so here is a great place to get [more]

Thu Oct 16

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 10:43 AM

Open letter by Handler and Friedman

This letter by Handler and Friedman was sent to the Managing Directors,
Senior Vice Presidents and Vice Presidents this September. It gives
some more clues to their personality, which Leucadia shareholders
not entering via Jeffries are [more]

Fri Oct 10

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 8:19 AM

Jefferies Oct 9 2014 Investor Day

Presentation from yesterday's meeting:
http://www.leucadia.com/jef_investor_day_october_2014_final_...

- Manlobbi

Wed Oct 8

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

Manlobbi commented on PeyDaFool's pitch for AAPL. 11:26 AM

Apples (AAPL) get a lot of bad press but this has been a common problem in the healthy food industry (almost exact the same happens day to day with bananas, oranges, fresh water, unprocessed grains, the list goes on) so think long term with this one, [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Leucadia National Corp. board. 8:49 AM

Future BV per share growth

Most of my analysis for Leucadia has lately been based
on investigating the history of Jefferies and their
management rather than the history of Leucadia. I think this
is the right way to think about the business now.

I'm finding [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 90.42
Player Rank 7195 out of 75070
Score 717.41
Score Change Today -9.71
Accuracy 87.50%
Active Picks 7
Total Picks 9
Best Pick AAPL (+537.86)
Worst Pick WRB (-0.69)
Average Score per Pick 79.71
Charms Earned 9
Highest Rated Favorite No Favorites Selected
Go to Manlobbi’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts CAPS All Star
Board Posts 1184
Recs Received 6456
People who have rec'd these posts 1517
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 272
Threads Started Percentage 22.97 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post View individual year's backtesting (11/13/1999)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 73.23 %
Show Manlobbi’s 10 Latest Posts