Manlobbi’s Activity

Wed Aug 20

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:37 PM

Re: beheading

1. Observe the options above the post:
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) | Ignore Thread

2. Click the right-most option.

- Manlobbi

Mon Aug 18

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:50 PM

Re: Is the market overvalued

The Shiller CAPE ratio (or PE10, or for that matter the trend
earnings which is quite close to the same thing in practice)
in the past had a strong correlation with the 10 year forward
returns. While it could predict 10 years ahead, it [more]

Sun Aug 17

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:59 AM

Re: Berkshire's float

>Scenario 1: by not selling 50 million appreciated KO shares, keeping
>the for another 25 years for instance, Buffett saves $1.3 billion in
>taxes this year; cash flow is zero, as you point out.
>Scenario 2: Sell the shares, [more]

Sun Aug 10

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:42 PM

Re: news from ghu

I have been interesting in purchasing an Russian index fund
for quite a number of years, each time because of the cheapness
when comparing price to earnings per share.

The very first step to looking at how cheap something really [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 10:35 AM

Re: Miss?

>My guess is that over time Markel will average 1.2 to 1.4 times book
>which is below intrinsic value but certainly not a bad thing for
>investors who aren't in the sell mode.

There is definitely a temptation to assuming [more]

Fri Aug 8

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:00 AM

Holding lowest p/b from BRK and MKL

These are some results from a simple idea of looking at the price to
book value of both Markel and Berkshire the last 20 years and holding
the company for one year that had the lowest closing price to book at
the previous reported end of [more]

Thu Jul 31

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Markel Corporation board. 7:56 AM

Re: Markel Ventures purchase

f>Out of curiosity, how did you come up with an instrinsic value of 1.7x
>book value?

A quick and dirty perspective is to look at the past 20 years and
observe what kind of multiples the market believed to be [more]

Thu Jul 24

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Markel Corporation board. 2:15 AM

Markel Ventures purchase

Markel has just purchased a majority holding of Cottrell, Inc. which
produces trucks that carry cars and emphasise a strong customer focus in
their culture. There are no details about the size of the acquisition
but we could approximate [more]

Sat Jul 12

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:32 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

>It seemed that Phil Fisher had been forgotten by this board in
>discussions. I think Phil Fisher's insights are very valuable. How one
>can quantify his insights is a startling idea.

It is very attractive to look at the [more]

Thu Jul 10

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:56 PM

Re: Where to put $10,000?

Saying that the market is "manifestly overpriced" is just an opinion
and an implicit prediction.


There are two things wrong about this. Firstly, it is not an opinion
that the market is overpriced but something that [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:48 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

Manlobbi, I would appreciate if you could elaborate on the difference in the expected growth of book value between Berkshire and Markel.
4% are maybe too much to be explained alone by the difference in size and the resulting bigger pool of
[more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:55 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

They usually either make assumptions about compounding earnings growth, or, in some cases (like Markel), book value. Then they guess at the multiple the market will assign at a point in the future. With these two figures they project what the [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:11 AM

Re: robots on this board?

I worked with a really good astrobiologist 12 years ago to create robot reports that generated random stars and planets with correct temperatures and likely compounds based on star size and type, then created a variety of life forms where [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:52 AM

Re: IV10/Price Update

>Manlobbi
>Value Line

Kelbon, I do not understand this comparison. You have just copy
pasted my table and labelled the second as Value Line, changing only
my 10 year book value growth to 5 years. The concept of comparing [more]

Wed Jul 9

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:26 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

>It’s based on not one, but two, best guesses. The first guess being how
>quickly book value, or earnings, will compound. The second guess being
>how the market will value those earnings (or, book value) at a given
>date in [more]

Tue Jul 8

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:40 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

Hi John,

What you are doing is rather similar. I presume you meant to write "based on the supplied iv10 and price" rather than "iv0 and iv10".

I formatted the simple approach actually starting with something [more]

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:09 PM

IV10/Price Update

I have just done some valuations of different
companies. The way I invest is to calculate intrinsic value
10 years away and compare to current price. It is amazingly
simple, but I don't know anyone who uses this metric 100%
to [more]

Wed May 28

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:21 AM

Re: OT: Who is buying?

According to the most recent CapitalIQ data, the single biggest buyer
of stocks in the first quarter were none other than the companies of the
S&P500 itself, which cumulatively repurchased a whopping $160 billion of
their own
[more]

Tue May 27

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:32 AM

Re: Mostly OT: Scared of living too long?

>Clearly the evil one preventers..

The median income also increased at a higher rate than CPI.

http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.php

If [more]

Mon May 26

NL

Boards Post

Manlobbi replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:04 PM

Re: Mostly OT: Scared of living too long?

>I did not move at all. I live in New Jersey. I bought this house
>in 1976. Since then, my real estate tax increased from $800/year to a
>little over $5600/year. Now it is 7x what it was then.

I'm amazed how CPI is ignored [more]

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