MDCigan

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 8:44 PM

Re: PAAS

I agree that ITM Long dated call options give great leverage to high conviction positions.

You can determine and compare leverage ratios by taking the underlying price divided by the option price and multiplying by the option delta.

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MDCigan posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 2:49 PM

PIR

With this stock now at $25, it is now a 250-bagger off the March 2009 low of .10. Obviously, the company at the time was being priced as if it was going to cease to exist.

Question for the retail guys here. What lessons are here if terms of [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 7:46 PM

Re: Gold at 1400

Should get an answer soon on that triangle resolution:

http://chartsetcetera.blogspot.com/2013/06/gold-is-approachi...

More [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:28 PM

Re: EXC - 2 minute drill

POR (Portland Gas & Electric) is a "100% regulated utility" with a "10.0% allowed return on equity," according to its March 2013 investor presentation.

Without checking the presentation, I'm unclear if the [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 9:37 PM

Re: Can't wait to be 53 years old

It would seem to me that "crystallized intelligence" would be very important to making investing/trading decisions. I'm probably oversimplifying but to me most good investing/trading decisions come down to pattern recognition and I don't [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:41 AM

Re: EXC - 2 minute drill

Martian, if you don't mind me asking, how much MOAT do you own on a percentage basis, and do you own it kind of as a placeholder for equity exposure while you search out individual names?

FWIW, I own MOAT as well in a large percentage [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:39 AM

Re: EXC - 2 minute drill

FWIW, in terms of utility exposure (if wanting stability), one might want to consider businesses where basically the vast majority to all of the revenue is regulated revenue where cost recovery + a certain ROIC is all but guaranteed.

I don't [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 11:06 AM

Re: Gold and silver are not encouraging

I agree...I actually shorted silver on Friday's break of the 22 support level. Gold appears to be tracing out a symmetrical triangle which is a continuation pattern of the previous trend which is obviously a downtrend. On a shorter-term basis, the [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:00 PM

Re: 5 Forecasts for 2014

Bonus pick: The Yen shoots through 110.

USD/Yen???

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:58 PM

Re: MWTRX

I think I am buyer of duration once the 10-year hits around 2.4-2.5%. My base case scenario is for a multi-year trading range on long-term yields.

I read something over the weekend...can't remember where now so I might be off a bit but [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:52 PM

Re: Managing new accounts in a bull run

So, say you are 60-70% invested in existing accounts or something like that...and you get new account in this market conditions..in the last 4-8 weeks, what do you do? Do you invest in
(1) in all position in same position sizes as older [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:45 PM

Re: Wednesday

oh yeah, i still can't find many bargain ideas.

gocanucks, here is probably a good supporting technical analysis datapoint on why you can't find many bargain ideas:

[more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:59 AM

Re: 5 Stocks

1) ETFs? Putting aside whether suggesting ETF violates the spirit of the question (stocks! real companies!), ETFs are the vehicle du jour. I wonder how they will hold up over the next 40 years. You're taking on "investment vehicle risk" [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:58 PM

Re: Wednesday

Nothing more than a mild correction from the May highs at worse (***).

FWIW, the last 3 "dips" (mid April, mid Feb, mid Dec) all basically halted right at the 50 DMA. The current 50 DMA is 1604 just a smidgen below today's [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 3:21 PM

Re: Gold stocks lead Gold...

Just one example...take silver in spring 2011,

Silver the commodity....SLV the ETF put in a higher high and topped out basically 4/27-4/29

but if you look at SIL the silver stock ETF it was not making higher highs on 4/27-4/29 but [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 3:14 PM

Re: Gold stocks lead Gold...

In my experience observing several different commodities including gold, silver, oil, the stocks tend to lead the underlying commodity both on the upside and downside.

This can be powerful because when they diverge that is giving you [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 11:20 AM

Re: Dr. Doom predicts $1000/oz for gold

Given his past track record in forecasting both gold prices and stock market prices, he is probably an excellent contrarian indicator here.

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MDCigan posted to the Liquid Lounge board. 4:05 PM

CEO sentiment

I thought this was a very interesting piece because I've never seen before using CEO sentiment to assess recession and market risk. Maybe not too surprising, but CEO sentiment appears to be a very solid *leading* indicator of recession risk and [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 10:44 AM

Re: Where have you gone Sam Walton?

that all ended...what, about 1990 when Food Lion had expanded too much...and Walmart ate it's lunch...Food Lion went bust...along with a hundred million in investor money.

It went up 100x....from the IPO.....


then to [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 8:52 PM

Re: Gold at 1400

OK, we are through NYMEX and spot gold is holding at 1414. Next stop 1440 to 1450.

IMO, the break and holding over 1400 is bullish in the *VERY* short-term as my expectation would be for gold to keep moving higher until it reaches a [more]