MDCigan

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 4:42 PM

Re: Precious metals TA

FWIW, another take, I've been a regular reader of this guy's blog for awhile, and he has been pretty good. He pretty much nailed the top in gold at 1900

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 1:41 PM

Re: Precious metals TA

Eddie,

I agree with much of your post here especially the short Yen trade. I too plan on building a substantial short Yen position over time and expect it to be a trend one can ride for a number of years. That said:

They are [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:36 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

Bloomberg/BW astutely points out today that the long-term cap gains rate on gold and metals ETFs is 28%, or 40% higher than on regular stocks at 20%.

Ouch.


Good point...of course this is irrelevant for retirement [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Mining and Metals board. 11:23 AM

Re: Precious metals TA

It is an interesting question. I have an investment screen where I look for the worst-performing sectors over a several year period. This is just my attempt to find some interesting "reversion to the mean" opportunities. To my surprise [more]

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MDCigan posted to the Mining and Metals board. 8:31 PM

Precious metals TA

http://boards.fool.com/precious-metals-key-reversal-days-lou...

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MDCigan posted to the Liquid Lounge board. 8:30 PM

Precious metals - key reversal days + Louise

I just closed my short trading position in gold and silver (was short 1 mini contract of each). Yesterday's price action (the new day in futures has already started) sure looks like key reversal days to me especially silver

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MDCigan posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:27 PM

Is it 1954?

I'm predisposed to the Hussman/Grantham view of the current market (I've heard Grantham is 50% in cash) so I try to force myself to think about the opposing case.

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:31 PM

Re: Japanese Yen - Naj?

As an aside, FCX spreads used to be the best leveraged play going. Mini contracts? Forgetaboutit!

I have been away from this stuff for a while but back in the day, a full contract in, say, the D Mark used to run you a thousand bucks but [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:17 PM

Re: Japanese Yen - Naj?

ET,

Thks for the link. At least recently, Gundlach seems like the guy who has had the best read on the markets. That short Apple/long nat gas trade for 2012 was one heck of a b*llsy contrarian call.

Anyways, this was a good video as [more]

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MDCigan posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:06 AM

Japanese Yen - Naj?

Naj, would be interested to hear your thoughts on the yen in terms of a really long-term perspective if you care to share

For reference

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:05 PM

Re: Poll: Percent comparison to October 2007

Given the debate, discussion, and commentary on this thread vis a vis Fed policy, I thought these comments from Fisher of the Dallas Fed make for a great read:

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:38 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

MDCigan - Do you think defining gold as an alternative form of currency might cloud one's ability to interpret the TA? Wouldn't it be less of an intellectual burden to treat it as simply another commodity?

Garranova,

Great [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:21 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

I'm going to respectfully suggest there is some element of selection/confirmation basis at work here. You've probably made no effort to find or research individuals who fit that bill. If I could say just one thing, it would be read the Marty [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:53 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

I was curious and looked him and up and viewed his performance which as you note is very impressive. Still, I can't help but get this odd feeling in my stomach that personal portfolio returns have little to do with returns associated with OPM. I [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:31 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

I'm not sure I understand what you mean. It may not be a crystal ball (I understand those things are infallible), but does it have predictive power? If you really can't tell which ones will break out and which ones will stay in the base, then I'm [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 5:20 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

From my point of view there are no fundamentals for gold:

- no revenues
- no earnings
- no cash flow

sw

I will committ to this memory....so you don't have to remind me again. FWIW, I only used gold as an [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:49 PM

Re: Apple?

Tepper had some comments on Apple which they own....I got the impression it was a normal weight position. He seemed kind of lukewarm. He mentioned they did selling/reducing over 500 and buying it back under 400. Mentioned the issue of something [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:42 PM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

It looks obvious after it happens, but I bet if I took 50 cases of breakouts out of long bases, however you want to define that, and 50 cases that looked the same, but didn't break out, most people wouldn't score better than randomly on [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:25 AM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

It doesn't seem logical to think of TA as a subset of FA, in my opinion, and I have never seen any credible source where it is thought of this way. Can anyone find one? You get to choose which you do, or you can do both, but you don't get to [more]

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MDCigan replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:15 AM

Re: Poll: Technical Analysis

I voted for total nonsense. I think that trying to trade major indexes or widely traded stocks (e.g. Apple) on the basis of technical analysis is a fool's game for the small investor. There is no way you can beat supercomputers.

This [more]