JohnCLeven’s Activity

Fri Feb 5

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for LNKD. 10:52 AM

Stock is down 39% today and 55% since my 4/16/15 post. I am going to close this out for now with a roughly +42 score, after holding for 1 year and 3 days.

Mon Feb 1

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:32 PM

Re: OT: Dataroma updates

I believe Feb 15th is the approx the date SEC filings get published.

Thu Jan 28

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for FB. 11:38 AM

I thought it was quite unlikely that FB would be able to go from $0.60 EPS in 2013 to $3.0-$4.5 per share by 2017. So far, I seem to be dead wrong. They appear on track to meet those stratospheric EPS growth rates. Based on 2015 EPS and 2016/2017 EPS [more]

Wed Jan 27

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:26 PM

Re: If WEB is not surprised by IBM...

Thanks for the comments

@commoncents33, you said, "Again, there's a false logic to your comment. You assume that he had a prediction about what eps would be in 2015."

It might be false logic, had WEB not said specifically [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:32 PM

Re: If WEB is not surprised by IBM...

I guess, instead of speculating on what he was thinking, what really need is someone to attend the annual meeting and ask him flat out:

"Mr. Buffett, in a recent CNBC interview, you said, "there have been no surprises at [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:30 PM

If WEB is not surprised by IBM...

...then what was his thesis in 2011?

In this 2015 interview...Buffett claims "There have been no surprises at IBM since we started buying it a few years ago."

This also implies that Buffett is "not surprised" by [more]

Thu Jan 21

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 2:02 PM

PNC Financial Services (PNC) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 1:56 PM

General Motors (GM) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 12:19 PM

CSX (CSX) will Outperform the S&P 500

Tue Jan 19

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for PM. 11:26 AM

$2017 EPS is estimated now to be about $5 or so....WAY below my initial 2017 estimate of $8 back in 2013. As a result, this company is close to fully priced. Another great lesson on the danger of extrapolating growth rates.

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for MAT. 11:22 AM

Closed at a loss. It appears MAT's moat may be eroding fairly quickly due to competition for non-traditional toys. As a result, my expectation of modest long-term EPS growth is in jeopardy.

Sun Jan 17

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 9:09 PM

Gap (GPS) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 9:08 PM

Phillips 66 (PSX) will Outperform the S&P 500

Fri Jan 15

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for TWTR. 1:30 PM

Down to $13B cap, and $17.94 per share...i'm closing this pick for now near +70. It certainly could drop further, but the CEO drama + the character limit drama + a 10% S&P 500 correction seems like a good point to close it out. Plus, if they keep [more]

Sun Jan 10

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:25 AM

Re: PE Ratios

Until recently, I've been a card-carrying member of Hussman's profit-margins-are-way-to-high-and-therefore-earnings-will-crash-club.

Then I read a pretty interesting piece that basically argues that profit margins don't matter.
[more]

Mon Dec 21

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:06 PM

Re: My basket of misfit stocks

"But it's only an 85 minute flight to New York if you miss American beer (for some unfathomable reason)"


Jim, surely you're referring to the "yellow fizzy" varieties such as Miller Lite and Bud?

Dogfish [more]

Sat Dec 19

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:39 AM

Re: My basket of misfit stocks

@mdtls

I noticed you have SCHW in your list of misfits. So does Lou Simpson.

Would you be willing to share your thesis?

Thanks,
-john

Wed Dec 9

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for AMZN. 9:14 PM

I may look silly in the short term, but check back in 3-5 years.

Wed Nov 25

CAPS Outperform Pitch

JohnCLeven wrote about Apache Corp (APA) . 10:41 AM

APA Outperform

See the last comment on my DVN pitch.

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for KO. 10:38 AM

I paid too high a price for a business that isn't going to grow that fast.

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 59.54
Player Rank 30301 out of 74889
Score -83.45
Score Change Today +43.74
Accuracy 57.02%
Active Picks 48
Total Picks 124
Best Pick WBA (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-95.30)
Average Score per Pick -0.67
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite constructive
Go to JohnCLeven’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 229
Recs Received 1114
People who have rec'd these posts 316
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 33
Threads Started Percentage 14.41 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 75.11 %
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