JohnCLeven’s Activity

Mon Nov 24

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BKE. 10:08 AM

Similar to COH, here is a retailer with ROIC that is TOO good...unsuatainably good. If the ROIC goes from insane (45%) to merely awesome (22.5%) you'll see a nearly 50% drop in EPS. This is a danger of going after high ROIC companies. If they go from [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for COH. 10:02 AM

Well, after about 2 years of betting on COH, I now need to admit that I grossly overestimated COH's durable competitive advantage. In fact COH's numbers were TOO good. I (pretty much) blindly assumed that the future would be similar to the past, but [more]

Fri Nov 21

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for NSC. 10:14 AM

Almost a double in 2 years. Closing pick until next recession, when i'll open it back up again.

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for CSX. 10:13 AM

Almost a double in 2 years. Closing pick until next recession, when i'll open it back up again.

Thu Nov 20

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 10:23 AM

Under Armour (UA) will Underperform the S&P 500

Wed Nov 19

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for PETM. 9:52 AM

Seeing reports of a buyout around $75, which is very disappointing. I definitely think the company is worth more than that. If I was a shareholder, i'd vote against any buyout below $95.

Thu Nov 13

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:38 PM

Re: Buying Duracell for $4.7B

Guys, isn't it obvious?

This is Berkshire's master plan to hedge against hurricane risk related to the insurance group...duh!

"In addition, anticipation or occurrence of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, can drive [more]

Sat Nov 8

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:36 PM

Re: Q3 Results Out

Wow, over 60 billion in cash, WEB's trigger finger must be getting itchy.

DVA? CBI?

They could buy out both and still have $30 billion left over.

Also, TUP seems like a pretty decent value at these prices.

Thu Oct 23

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on Fantasygirl123's blog post. 7:11 PM

Fantasygirl saw some green......:)

Copying from other post: 

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on Fantasygirl123's blog post. 7:10 PM

Fantasygirl saw some green......:)

Copying from other post: 

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on Fantasygirl123's blog post. 7:10 PM

Fantasygirl saw some green......:)

Copying from other post: 

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on TMFPostOfTheDay's blog post. 7:07 PM

IBM: Is Buffett Wrong, or Brilliant?

Time will tell.

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 7:05 PM

Regarding IBM

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY individual stocks on your own, in real life, until you have

[more]

Wed Oct 22

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:30 AM

Re: IV10/price update, includes IBM

Solid work though, thanks for posting!

But, instead of making capital allocation decisions based on IV10/Price ratio, wouldn't it be easier/make more sense to convert that ratio into a 10yr forward rate of return [more]

Tue Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:31 PM

Re: Poll: What is IBM's IV?

Let's invert the question...just for fun.

Let's try to get an idea of the assumed growth rate that is "baked in" to IBM's priced, and think about whether or not the market's assumptions make sense.

A reverse DCF on IBM at [more]

Mon Oct 20

Blog Post

JohnCLeven added a blog post. 5:00 PM

Regarding IBM

Selling divisions? Buybacks? Controversy? Boy, oh boy, IBM is taking a beating. Earnings misses, financial “engineering”, and of course PAYING someone [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:58 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Selling divisions? Buybacks? Controversy?

Boy, oh boy, IBM is taking a beating.

Earnings misses, financial “engineering”, and of course PAYING someone to take a business off your hands...WOW. Talk about a train wreck. (No BNSF pun [more]

Fri Oct 17

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 5:16 PM

Predictions

Nice post.

Assessing the durability of a moat is the most difficult, but most critical part of the Buffett-style of investing. 

Anyone can screen for high ROIC, consistent growth,

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on TMFAleph1's blog post. 5:09 PM

Has the Stock Market Crash of 2014 Begun?

I wake up every day and cheer for the market to crash. 

I'm 25 and so probably have a 50+ year investing horizon ahead of me, so any oppunities to buy incredible businesses at cheap prices would be much

[more]

Thu Oct 9

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:06 PM

Buffett FAQ

http://buffettfaq.com/

I wanted to post this link just in case anyone on this board wasn't already aware of it.

It's the best Berkshire-related compilation I've ever seen.

You can really [more]

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 74.61
Player Rank 19061 out of 75067
Score 181.73
Score Change Today -18.96
Accuracy 62.79%
Active Picks 39
Total Picks 95
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-95.30)
Average Score per Pick 1.91
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
Go to JohnCLeven’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 149
Recs Received 680
People who have rec'd these posts 259
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 25
Threads Started Percentage 16.78 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 70.47 %
Show JohnCLeven’s 10 Latest Posts