JohnCLeven’s Activity

Sat Jan 24

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Value Hounds board. 2:36 PM

Re: UPS vs FDX

I love duopolies.

However, among these two, UPS is the CLEARLY more wonderful business. UPS has higher market share, is the low cost producer, gets better returns on capital, and buys back shares at a much faster rate than [more]

Wed Jan 21

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:16 PM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?

Revenue 2011-12
$106,916

Revenue 2012-12
$104,507

Revenue 2013-12
$99,751

Revenue TTM
$97,449


Revenue Per Share 2011-12
$88.07

Revenue Per Share [more]

Mon Jan 5

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 11:26 AM

Joy Global, Inc. (JOY) will Outperform the S&P 500

Tue Dec 30

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:31 PM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

@Vahgar

I think we pretty much agree.

I'd rather buy Berkshire at 1.5x BV than MKL at 1.3x

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:10 AM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

@Vahgar

You may certainly be correct, that MKL's returns will not be quite that high, but here's some food for thought.

From Jan 2000 to Dec 2007, the annualized total return of the S&P 500 was something around to 2.3%. (Keep me [more]

Mon Dec 29

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:10 PM

Re: 1.57 price to book?

It seems roughly right, or at least not precisely wrong.

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:07 PM

Re: Food for Thought

Jim,

What's the best way to calculate cyclically adjusted earnings for an individual business with 10 years of data?

Is it as simple as applying the average net margin to normalized sales, or is there much more to it? This method [more]

Sun Dec 28

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:54 AM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

I expect roughly 0% annualized returns for the S&P 500 from capital gains over the next decade. That assumption is based on the following: 1) profit margins reverting to more normal levels, 2)Fairly normal levels of growth and inflation, and [more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 10:56 AM

Winter is Coming...

After thinking about this more, I think 15 years is probably too pessimistic.

I'd rather be on the record saying that I expect the S&P 500 may trade around today's prices ($2000-$2100) roughly 10 years from

[more]

Wed Dec 17

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for PETM. 2:17 PM

Buyout was $83

Tue Dec 9

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for PKX. 11:13 AM

Do a search for CAPs user Valuemoneygreen

CAPS Outperform Pitch

JohnCLeven wrote about POSCO (ADR) (PKX) . 10:37 AM

PKX Outperform

At about 0.7x tangible book value, I am now ready to follow Munger, Pabrai, Valuemoney, and MungoFitch into PKX.

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 10:37 AM

POSCO (ADR) (PKX) will Outperform the S&P 500

Sat Dec 6

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on TMFPencils's pitch for TSLA. 11:53 AM

You said "I would not be surprised to see the company grow into a $60 billion+ valuation over the next five years..." That's a higher valuation than GM has right now, which I think is insane. I love that you write such detailed CAPs pitches [more]

Mon Dec 1

CAPS Underperform Pitch

JohnCLeven wrote about Under Armour (UA) . 4:36 PM

UA Underperform

Priced to perfection, and perfection rarely happens. Even with extremely rosy assumptions (>20% annualized growth over the next 10 years), I highly doubt UA is worth more than $60. More realistically, I think UA might be worth somewhere in the [more]

Thu Nov 27

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for FB. 9:35 PM

FB's market cap is now virtually tied with CVX at $217 B Think about that for a moment...

Mon Nov 24

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BKE. 10:08 AM

Similar to COH, here is a retailer with ROIC that is TOO good...unsuatainably good. If the ROIC goes from insane (45%) to merely awesome (22.5%) you'll see a nearly 50% drop in EPS. This is a danger of going after high ROIC companies. If they go from [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for COH. 10:02 AM

Well, after about 2 years of betting on COH, I now need to admit that I grossly overestimated COH's durable competitive advantage. In fact COH's numbers were TOO good. I (pretty much) blindly assumed that the future would be similar to the past, but [more]

Fri Nov 21

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for NSC. 10:14 AM

Almost a double in 2 years. Closing pick until next recession, when i'll open it back up again.

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for CSX. 10:13 AM

Almost a double in 2 years. Closing pick until next recession, when i'll open it back up again.

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 71.07
Player Rank 21735 out of 75120
Score 123.11
Score Change Today +1.38
Accuracy 62.50%
Active Picks 38
Total Picks 98
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-95.30)
Average Score per Pick 1.26
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite Mega
Go to JohnCLeven’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 159
Recs Received 741
People who have rec'd these posts 268
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 25
Threads Started Percentage 15.72 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 72.33 %
Show JohnCLeven’s 10 Latest Posts