JohnCLeven’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:31 PM

Re: Poll: What is IBM's IV?

Let's invert the question...just for fun.

Let's try to get an idea of the assumed growth rate that is "baked in" to IBM's priced, and think about whether or not the market's assumptions make sense.

A reverse DCF on IBM at [more]

Mon Oct 20

Blog Post

JohnCLeven added a blog post. 5:00 PM

Regarding IBM

Selling divisions? Buybacks? Controversy? Boy, oh boy, IBM is taking a beating. Earnings misses, financial “engineering”, and of course PAYING someone [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:58 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Selling divisions? Buybacks? Controversy?

Boy, oh boy, IBM is taking a beating.

Earnings misses, financial “engineering”, and of course PAYING someone to take a business off your hands...WOW. Talk about a train wreck. (No BNSF pun [more]

Fri Oct 17

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 5:16 PM

Predictions

Nice post.

Assessing the durability of a moat is the most difficult, but most critical part of the Buffett-style of investing. 

Anyone can screen for high ROIC, consistent growth,

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on TMFAleph1's blog post. 5:09 PM

Has the Stock Market Crash of 2014 Begun?

I wake up every day and cheer for the market to crash. 

I'm 25 and so probably have a 50+ year investing horizon ahead of me, so any oppunities to buy incredible businesses at cheap prices would be much

[more]

Thu Oct 9

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:06 PM

Buffett FAQ

http://buffettfaq.com/

I wanted to post this link just in case anyone on this board wasn't already aware of it.

It's the best Berkshire-related compilation I've ever seen.

You can really [more]

Wed Oct 8

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for MAT. 8:31 PM

Note to self. My 13 picks over the past 13 or so months, TWTR thru XOM, have averaged a -10.66 score vs the S&P 500 so far.

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for NPK. 7:46 PM

Ex-cash NPK is selling near 10x the average of the past 5 years annual dividend payments. Selling for less that 10x pretax earnings which are likely to rise. Seems pretty cheap, as long as the business stays solid.

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for TSLA. 7:12 PM

@RedSage Thanks for the comment. I'd be pretty shocked if TSLA was generating >$1 Billion per year by 2020, but let's pretend you're right. That would put 2020 EPS around $8.13, making the rosy assumption that the number of shares outstanding [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:58 AM

Re: OT: Overpriced Market and Morningstar

Mungo,

Speaking of Value Line's 3-5 year Annual Return, it was that very metric that inspired my newest screen idea.

What I've been doing lately is taking a list of businesses with 10 yr ROE avg > 20% and no years in the past [more]

Mon Oct 6

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:53 PM

Re: Do we know what 4 stocks?

What's also really interesting is that, if you multiply the number of shares bought/sold by the current price, it looks like the Ted/Todd portfolio was a net seller of stocks in the past quarter, with by far the largest sale being the reduction of [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:07 PM

Re: Do we know what 4 stocks?

I should have clarified.

This should be very close to the combined Ted and Todd portfolio.

It's simply the Berkshire stock portfolio, minus the stocks that we can be pretty certain are Buffett picks.

[more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:26 PM

Re: Do we know what 4 stocks?

DVA $2,720,761,712.64 18.23%
DTV $1,995,014,254.95 13.36%
Malone Related $1,659,570,359.14 11.12%
GM $1,196,450,032.80 8.01%
CBI $729,815,702.00 4.89%
VZ $733,995,407.04 4.92%
SU $701,618,607.90 4.70%
MTB $667,642,062.00 [more]

Thu Oct 2

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on 20Punches's pitch for DE. 6:13 PM

Yeah, there’s leverage w/ the finance unit, but not enough to worry me. The finance unit has about $21.5B notes outstanding at a weighted average of just 1.2%! The equipment unit has about $4.9 billion outstanding at a weighted average of 4.55% If [more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 10:58 AM

Taking a step back and look at Tesco from a rational perspective.

When he says huge mistake in this context, what he means is "I thought their competitive advantage was truly durable, but found out the hard way that that assumption was hugely incorrect." 

Mon Sep 29

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 9:57 PM

Multiple In, Multiple Out

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 9:49 PM

Multiple In, Multiple Out

I've been using multiple in, multiple out more and more. It's simple and effective. DCF's require you estimating things that noone can possibly know, specifically the rate the firm will grow at into perpetuity.  So while

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 8:50 PM

Taking a step back and look at Tesco from a rational perspective.

Well written, and well thought out. Thanks for posting.

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 8:39 PM

Returns on Equity and Assets of the "longest lasting" S&P 500 Companies

I had noticed one of your recent pitches, and decided to read all of your blog posts from this year...and boy let me tell you... there are few things more shocking then reading an article and seeing your own fool username pop

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 8:28 PM

Heads, I win. Tails, I don't lose much.

Couldn't agree more.

Show More Activity ...

CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 75.47
Player Rank 18415 out of 75062
Score 225.92
Score Change Today -16.67
Accuracy 60.00%
Active Picks 44
Total Picks 94
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-88.45)
Average Score per Pick 2.40
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
Go to JohnCLeven’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 146
Recs Received 668
People who have rec'd these posts 255
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 25
Threads Started Percentage 17.12 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 69.86 %
Show JohnCLeven’s 10 Latest Posts