JohnCLeven’s Activity

Today

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on awallejr's blog post. 1:40 AM

Keep Calling Tops Please.

I won't call a top, because I have no idea what the market is going to do in the short term. However, I will make this call - that the returns of the S&P 500 index, over the next 3-5 years - are going to be quite low, compared

[more]

Fri Jul 11

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 11:26 PM

Winter is Coming...

Thanks Core, glad to hear from you!

Tue Jul 8

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:24 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

Interesting work, thanks a lot for sharing!

I attempt to employ a somewhat similar process.

Instead of a future value/today's price ratio, I use what I call an "estimated forward rate of total return", which makes for [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BBBY. 10:16 AM

Excellent news! BBBY just authorized another $2B of buybacks, which when added to the 800m already authorized, totals $2.8B in planned buybacks by the end of FY2016. At today’s prices, those buybacks would reduce the share count by about 47M from [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on 20Punches's pitch for BBBY. 10:16 AM

Excellent news! BBBY just authorized another $2B of buybacks, which when added to the 800m already authorized, totals $2.8B in planned buybacks by the end of FY2016. At today’s prices, those buybacks would reduce the share count by about 47M from [more]

Mon Jul 7

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BBBY. 3:27 PM

BBBY looking really attractive under $60. Frankly, i'd be shocked if this equity dosen't outperform over the next few years from this entry point.

Tue Jul 1

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:11 AM

Re: good question

I'm not sure how you define young people, but i'm 25 years old. I bought my first shares of BRK.B at $79.83 in one lump-sum purchase on 6/6/2012. BRK.B was selling for 1.097x BV at the time. This also happened to be the first time I bought shares in [more]

Wed Jun 18

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for TSLA. 10:21 PM

"Our conclusion is that, with few exceptions, when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." 1980 Berkshire [more]

Fri Jun 13

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's pitch for PETM. 11:21 PM

He means they consistently buy back shares.

Wed Jun 11

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:47 PM

Re: IBM, another cautionary tale

Am I somewhat concerned with IBM's recent results? Yes.

Am I going to sell IBM, a company: 1) with such an amazing 50 year track record, 2) a 5 year avereage ROE over 75%, and 10 yr average over 55% (per Morningstar), with 3) the Buffett Big [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:37 PM

Re: IBM, another cautionary tale

The jury is still out IMO.

But it will be VERY interesting to analyze this pick in a few more years. $11 billion is not a small bet. It's one of the Big 4, which means it requries extreme conviction.

In 5 years we'll probably be [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:24 AM

Re: Gotta sell a little....

Interesting thoughts.

I'm curious, what types of alternative investments are you looking into?

Personally, my portfolio is also BRK.B heavy (about 40% allocation), but i'm very happy with that arrangement. I see BRK.B as a wonderful [more]

Tue Jun 10

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:29 PM

Re: Gotta sell a little....

Why are you selling?

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:13 AM

Re: GHU boasting again

GHU, if you happen to read this, I respect your opinion. Please realize, however, that this board, like most Berkshire shareholders, are staunchly in favor on the current dividend policy.

Calling for Berkshire to pay dividends, on a [more]

Mon Jun 9

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:14 PM

Re: ot: DTV

So either one of two things are likely to happen:

1) You have 14% upside if the deal goes through.

or

2) The deal doesn't go through, and you own a tremendously profitable business, with a great history of capital [more]

Sun Jun 8

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on TMFPencils's pitch for FB. 6:57 PM

Wow, 10B in net income, that sure would be something. After all, Coca-Cola only makes about $9B per year these days. I don't think FB is going to come close to $10B in 2019, but I will tip my cap to you if they do. Good luck!

Wed Jun 4

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 9:46 PM

Winter is Coming...

That's seems like a pretty good basket.

I don't own any ETF's, but if I did, it would probably be this one. 

As you said in your blog post: 

"Sure,

[more]

Mon Jun 2

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:32 AM

Re: BRK Share repurchases from GHC

Too bad 2,179 A shares only amount to roughly 418 million bucks, which is approx. a mere 1/10th of 1% of the outstanding share count.

It's gonna take alot more than that to move the needle.

Wed May 28

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:59 PM

Re: BOOKS that you want to recommend.

That's a whole lot of long and hard-to-read recommendations.

I really enjoyed the Dhandho Investor book by Mr Pabrai recently.
It's not exactly a magnum opus. Short and fluffy by comparison.
But it contained a couple of "light [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 83.25
Player Rank 12556 out of 74976
Score 386.49
Score Change Today -6.89
Accuracy 71.43%
Active Picks 47
Total Picks 91
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-92.73)
Average Score per Pick 4.25
Charms Earned 5
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts CAPS All Star
Board Posts 132
Recs Received 586
People who have rec'd these posts 244
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 24
Threads Started Percentage 18.18 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 68.94 %
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