JohnCLeven’s Activity

Yesterday

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on 10x2's pitch for DE. 7:14 AM

DE is likely going to see earnings drop or stay stagnant over the next couple years before picking up again. But as long term investors we shouldn't care about that. We should care about what DE is going to be earning 5 or 10 years out. Based on [more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 7:05 AM

2014 ROE Champion List

He added, “One person said to me, ‘I have a list of 300 potentially attractive stocks, and I constantly watch them, waiting for just one of them to become cheap enough to buy.’ Well, that’s a

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 7:05 AM

Become a (Business) Historian, and Build a LIST of ALL STARS.

He added, “One person said to me, ‘I have a list of 300 potentially attractive stocks, and I constantly watch them, waiting for just one of them to become cheap enough to buy.’ Well, that’s a

[more]

Fri Sep 12

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:06 AM

Re: Munger DJCO - Tesco / Retail.

The more investing experience I gain, the less comfortable I am investing in any retailers.

Thu Sep 11

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BP. 10:37 AM

That was a good reply, not rambling at all. thanks~

Fri Sep 5

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for TWTR. 2:05 PM

Back up to $30B cap.

Mon Aug 25

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for FB. 5:21 PM

@kandiskane You speak the words of most of the FB bulls. The bulls believe that since FB has a huge amount of users, the'll inevitably find a way to make a huge amount of money on them. Few people have any idea HOW this is actually going to happen, [more]

Thu Aug 7

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:29 PM

Re: OT: What's Tesco worth?

Do you think a Berkshire/3G Partnership makes sense for a business like Tesco?

Tue Aug 5

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:14 PM

Re: OT: Wally

Jim,

Thanks for your reply.

I now have an off-topic question for you. I've seen a few posts where you talk about "trend earnings."

What are trend earnings exactly, and how do you calculate them?

Thanks [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:15 PM

Re: OT: Wally

Jim, interesting thoughts. I've been watching WMT as well, and while it has been getting more attractive, the oppurtunity cost - buying more BRK.B - is still too high for me.

Buffett says, “We view our cost of capital as the returns we can [more]

Sun Aug 3

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 6:13 PM

Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 6:13 PM

Deere & Company (DE) will Outperform the S&P 500

Wed Jul 16

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:23 PM

Re: Todd and Ted and Intel

If I recall, Todd and/or Ted had bought and sold INTC in a single quarter, which is very un-Berkshire like.

I'm guessing it was an issue of circle of competence and/or uncertainty regarding the durability of INTC's moat. That begs the [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for INTC. 10:11 AM

Good business, but frankly, it's too unpredictable for me. It was outside my circle of competence, but I bought it anyway because it looked cheap. I need to stop doing that. The more I learn, the smaller that circle gets lol.

Tue Jul 15

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:06 PM

Re: OT: Latest GMO Real Return Forecast

Pat: You've been fans of that for a while, and I've always wanted to ask you, how do define high quality? If you could unpack that a little bit, I think it would be very helpful.

Jeremy Grantham: It's unbelievably ordinary, like most of what [more]

Mon Jul 14

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:37 PM

Re: OT: Latest GMO Real Return Forecast

If the earnings of the S&P 500 are $101.5
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/

and profit margins are 9% of GDP, and 6.5% is about average then the cyclically adjusted earnings [more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 3:47 PM

Winter is Coming...

Meanwhile, it would not be unreasonable for Berkshire Hathaway or Markel to triple during that same time frame.

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 3:45 PM

Winter is Coming...

Here's a thought exercise for future reference:

If 1) GDP grows at a hypothetical constant 4% annualized, 2) we assume a historically average 6.5% corporate profit margin as a % of GDP, and 3) a historic median

[more]

Sun Jul 13

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on awallejr's blog post. 1:40 AM

Keep Calling Tops Please.

I won't call a top, because I have no idea what the market is going to do in the short term. However, I will make this call - that the returns of the S&P 500 index, over the next 3-5 years - are going to be quite low, compared

[more]

Fri Jul 11

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 11:26 PM

Winter is Coming...

Thanks Core, glad to hear from you!

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 76.54
Player Rank 17605 out of 75036
Score 239.02
Score Change Today -8.47
Accuracy 62.79%
Active Picks 47
Total Picks 93
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-90.95)
Average Score per Pick 2.57
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
Go to JohnCLeven’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 139
Recs Received 596
People who have rec'd these posts 246
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 24
Threads Started Percentage 17.27 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 68.35 %
Show JohnCLeven’s 10 Latest Posts