JohnCLeven’s Activity

Fri Feb 20

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:41 AM

Re: IBM, What's To Like

In general, margins are a good proxy for the competitiveness of an industry/firm. Low margin industries have low barriers to entry, lots of competition, and factors that do not allow companies to raise prices. High margin industries have high [more]

Thu Feb 19

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:54 AM

Re: 1 foot poles?

Possible 1 foot hurdles:

VZ at roughly a 10% free cash flow yield.
NOV at about 1.05X BV.

Wed Feb 18

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:28 PM

Re: IBM, What's To Like

Yet, here's the cash flow from operations per share for the past 5+ years:

2009 $20,773B / 1,341 million shares = $15.49 per share
2010 19,549 / 1,287 million shares = $15.19 per share
2011 19,846 / 1,214 million shares = $16.35 per [more]

Tue Feb 17

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:42 PM

Re: 13-F is out

If you crack open the filing, you'll notice a list of reporting entities here: [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:29 PM

Re: 13-F is out

Position size and reporting entity in the filing suggest DE addition was a Buffett purchase. It also appears to have been the confidential filing.

Mon Feb 16

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:39 PM

Re: 13F - ?

They're due tomorrow, because of the holiday.

Fri Feb 13

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:04 PM

Re: update by/on <i>GHU</i>

"But as of today, the runrate earnings yield post-net-cash is between 8-9%. Even if they simply maintain their current earnings at this year's level indefinitely, that'll beat the market."

I'd argue that there's nothing simple [more]

Wed Feb 11

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:14 AM

Re: update by/on <i>GHU</i>

If BRK.B, led by the best capital allocator of all time, is going to struggle to get decent returns on such a large pile of cash (around $60B currently) due to the "anchor effect", what the heck makes you think AAPL, w/ presumably far [more]

Wed Feb 4

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 6:59 PM

Re: web on fox now

With $40B to deploy, BRK.B could 1) acquire 100% DVA, MAT, CBI, and TUP all at 25% premiums to today's prices.

Or 2) they could acquire 100% of DE at a 25% premium.

As someone with 60% of my assets in BRK.B since 2011, i'd be ok [more]

Mon Feb 2

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:35 PM

Re: Annual letter date?

Either way it will be extra exciting, because both WEB and Charlie Munger will be writing short reflections on the past 50 years at Berkshire, as well as the next 50. Neither will have had the opportunity to see the other's comments until shortly [more]

Sat Jan 24

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Value Hounds board. 2:36 PM

Re: UPS vs FDX

I love duopolies.

However, among these two, UPS is the CLEARLY more wonderful business. UPS has higher market share, is the low cost producer, gets better returns on capital, and buys back shares at a much faster rate than [more]

Wed Jan 21

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:16 PM

Re: IBM 170 or 140 today?

Revenue 2011-12
$106,916

Revenue 2012-12
$104,507

Revenue 2013-12
$99,751

Revenue TTM
$97,449


Revenue Per Share 2011-12
$88.07

Revenue Per Share [more]

Mon Jan 5

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 11:26 AM

Joy Global, Inc. (JOY) will Outperform the S&P 500

Tue Dec 30

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 3:31 PM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

@Vahgar

I think we pretty much agree.

I'd rather buy Berkshire at 1.5x BV than MKL at 1.3x

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:10 AM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

@Vahgar

You may certainly be correct, that MKL's returns will not be quite that high, but here's some food for thought.

From Jan 2000 to Dec 2007, the annualized total return of the S&P 500 was something around to 2.3%. (Keep me [more]

Mon Dec 29

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:10 PM

Re: 1.57 price to book?

It seems roughly right, or at least not precisely wrong.

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:07 PM

Re: Food for Thought

Jim,

What's the best way to calculate cyclically adjusted earnings for an individual business with 10 years of data?

Is it as simple as applying the average net margin to normalized sales, or is there much more to it? This method [more]

Sun Dec 28

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:54 AM

Re: Does Buffett not think we're playing with fi

I expect roughly 0% annualized returns for the S&P 500 from capital gains over the next decade. That assumption is based on the following: 1) profit margins reverting to more normal levels, 2)Fairly normal levels of growth and inflation, and [more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 10:56 AM

Winter is Coming...

After thinking about this more, I think 15 years is probably too pessimistic.

I'd rather be on the record saying that I expect the S&P 500 may trade around today's prices ($2000-$2100) roughly 10 years from

[more]

Wed Dec 17

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for PETM. 2:17 PM

Buyout was $83

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CAPS Player Rating 65.05
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Score 34.20
Score Change Today -24.42
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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 169
Recs Received 815
People who have rec'd these posts 274
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Threads Started 25
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Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
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