JohnCLeven’s Activity

Thu Oct 23

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on Fantasygirl123's blog post. 7:11 PM

Fantasygirl saw some green......:)

Copying from other post: 

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on Fantasygirl123's blog post. 7:10 PM

Fantasygirl saw some green......:)

Copying from other post: 

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on Fantasygirl123's blog post. 7:10 PM

Fantasygirl saw some green......:)

Copying from other post: 

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on TMFPostOfTheDay's blog post. 7:07 PM

IBM: Is Buffett Wrong, or Brilliant?

Time will tell.

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 7:05 PM

Regarding IBM

@ fantasygirl123

 I'm going to tell you something that probably no one on this site will have the balls to tell you...you should NOT invest in ANY individual stocks on your own, in real life, until you have

[more]

Wed Oct 22

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 11:30 AM

Re: IV10/price update, includes IBM

Solid work though, thanks for posting!

But, instead of making capital allocation decisions based on IV10/Price ratio, wouldn't it be easier/make more sense to convert that ratio into a 10yr forward rate of return [more]

Tue Oct 21

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:31 PM

Re: Poll: What is IBM's IV?

Let's invert the question...just for fun.

Let's try to get an idea of the assumed growth rate that is "baked in" to IBM's priced, and think about whether or not the market's assumptions make sense.

A reverse DCF on IBM at [more]

Mon Oct 20

Blog Post

JohnCLeven added a blog post. 5:00 PM

Regarding IBM

Selling divisions? Buybacks? Controversy? Boy, oh boy, IBM is taking a beating. Earnings misses, financial “engineering”, and of course PAYING someone [more]

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Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:58 PM

Re: IBM: Is Buffett Wrong?

Selling divisions? Buybacks? Controversy?

Boy, oh boy, IBM is taking a beating.

Earnings misses, financial “engineering”, and of course PAYING someone to take a business off your hands...WOW. Talk about a train wreck. (No BNSF pun [more]

Fri Oct 17

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on ElCid16's blog post. 5:16 PM

Predictions

Nice post.

Assessing the durability of a moat is the most difficult, but most critical part of the Buffett-style of investing. 

Anyone can screen for high ROIC, consistent growth,

[more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on TMFAleph1's blog post. 5:09 PM

Has the Stock Market Crash of 2014 Begun?

I wake up every day and cheer for the market to crash. 

I'm 25 and so probably have a 50+ year investing horizon ahead of me, so any oppunities to buy incredible businesses at cheap prices would be much

[more]

Thu Oct 9

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven posted to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:06 PM

Buffett FAQ

http://buffettfaq.com/

I wanted to post this link just in case anyone on this board wasn't already aware of it.

It's the best Berkshire-related compilation I've ever seen.

You can really [more]

Wed Oct 8

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for MAT. 8:31 PM

Note to self. My 13 picks over the past 13 or so months, TWTR thru XOM, have averaged a -10.66 score vs the S&P 500 so far.

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for NPK. 7:46 PM

Ex-cash NPK is selling near 10x the average of the past 5 years annual dividend payments. Selling for less that 10x pretax earnings which are likely to rise. Seems pretty cheap, as long as the business stays solid.

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for TSLA. 7:12 PM

@RedSage Thanks for the comment. I'd be pretty shocked if TSLA was generating >$1 Billion per year by 2020, but let's pretend you're right. That would put 2020 EPS around $8.13, making the rosy assumption that the number of shares outstanding [more]

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Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 10:58 AM

Re: OT: Overpriced Market and Morningstar

Mungo,

Speaking of Value Line's 3-5 year Annual Return, it was that very metric that inspired my newest screen idea.

What I've been doing lately is taking a list of businesses with 10 yr ROE avg > 20% and no years in the past [more]

Mon Oct 6

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 7:53 PM

Re: Do we know what 4 stocks?

What's also really interesting is that, if you multiply the number of shares bought/sold by the current price, it looks like the Ted/Todd portfolio was a net seller of stocks in the past quarter, with by far the largest sale being the reduction of [more]

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Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:07 PM

Re: Do we know what 4 stocks?

I should have clarified.

This should be very close to the combined Ted and Todd portfolio.

It's simply the Berkshire stock portfolio, minus the stocks that we can be pretty certain are Buffett picks.

[more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 1:26 PM

Re: Do we know what 4 stocks?

DVA $2,720,761,712.64 18.23%
DTV $1,995,014,254.95 13.36%
Malone Related $1,659,570,359.14 11.12%
GM $1,196,450,032.80 8.01%
CBI $729,815,702.00 4.89%
VZ $733,995,407.04 4.92%
SU $701,618,607.90 4.70%
MTB $667,642,062.00 [more]

Thu Oct 2

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on 20Punches's pitch for DE. 6:13 PM

Yeah, there’s leverage w/ the finance unit, but not enough to worry me. The finance unit has about $21.5B notes outstanding at a weighted average of just 1.2%! The equipment unit has about $4.9 billion outstanding at a weighted average of 4.55% If [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 73.70
Player Rank 19744 out of 75058
Score 185.57
Score Change Today -21.94
Accuracy 60.00%
Active Picks 44
Total Picks 94
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-94.27)
Average Score per Pick 1.97
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
Go to JohnCLeven’s CAPS page

Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 147
Recs Received 673
People who have rec'd these posts 256
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 25
Threads Started Percentage 17.01 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 70.07 %
Show JohnCLeven’s 10 Latest Posts