JohnCLeven’s Activity

Mon Aug 25

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for FB. 5:21 PM

@kandiskane You speak the words of most of the FB bulls. The bulls believe that since FB has a huge amount of users, the'll inevitably find a way to make a huge amount of money on them. Few people have any idea HOW this is actually going to happen, [more]

Thu Aug 7

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:29 PM

Re: OT: What's Tesco worth?

Do you think a Berkshire/3G Partnership makes sense for a business like Tesco?

Tue Aug 5

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:14 PM

Re: OT: Wally

Jim,

Thanks for your reply.

I now have an off-topic question for you. I've seen a few posts where you talk about "trend earnings."

What are trend earnings exactly, and how do you calculate them?

Thanks [more]

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:15 PM

Re: OT: Wally

Jim, interesting thoughts. I've been watching WMT as well, and while it has been getting more attractive, the oppurtunity cost - buying more BRK.B - is still too high for me.

Buffett says, “We view our cost of capital as the returns we can [more]

Sun Aug 3

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 6:13 PM

Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

JohnCLeven made a pick in CAPS. 6:13 PM

Deere & Company (DE) will Outperform the S&P 500

Wed Jul 16

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 5:23 PM

Re: Todd and Ted and Intel

If I recall, Todd and/or Ted had bought and sold INTC in a single quarter, which is very un-Berkshire like.

I'm guessing it was an issue of circle of competence and/or uncertainty regarding the durability of INTC's moat. That begs the [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for INTC. 10:11 AM

Good business, but frankly, it's too unpredictable for me. It was outside my circle of competence, but I bought it anyway because it looked cheap. I need to stop doing that. The more I learn, the smaller that circle gets lol.

Tue Jul 15

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:06 PM

Re: OT: Latest GMO Real Return Forecast

Pat: You've been fans of that for a while, and I've always wanted to ask you, how do define high quality? If you could unpack that a little bit, I think it would be very helpful.

Jeremy Grantham: It's unbelievably ordinary, like most of what [more]

Mon Jul 14

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 4:37 PM

Re: OT: Latest GMO Real Return Forecast

If the earnings of the S&P 500 are $101.5
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/

and profit margins are 9% of GDP, and 6.5% is about average then the cyclically adjusted earnings [more]

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 3:47 PM

Winter is Coming...

Meanwhile, it would not be unreasonable for Berkshire Hathaway or Markel to triple during that same time frame.

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 3:45 PM

Winter is Coming...

Here's a thought exercise for future reference:

If 1) GDP grows at a hypothetical constant 4% annualized, 2) we assume a historically average 6.5% corporate profit margin as a % of GDP, and 3) a historic median

[more]

Sun Jul 13

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on awallejr's blog post. 1:40 AM

Keep Calling Tops Please.

I won't call a top, because I have no idea what the market is going to do in the short term. However, I will make this call - that the returns of the S&P 500 index, over the next 3-5 years - are going to be quite low, compared

[more]

Fri Jul 11

Blog Comment

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's blog post. 11:26 PM

Winter is Coming...

Thanks Core, glad to hear from you!

Tue Jul 8

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 9:24 PM

Re: IV10/Price Update

Interesting work, thanks a lot for sharing!

I attempt to employ a somewhat similar process.

Instead of a future value/today's price ratio, I use what I call an "estimated forward rate of total return", which makes for [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BBBY. 10:16 AM

Excellent news! BBBY just authorized another $2B of buybacks, which when added to the 800m already authorized, totals $2.8B in planned buybacks by the end of FY2016. At today’s prices, those buybacks would reduce the share count by about 47M from [more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on 20Punches's pitch for BBBY. 10:16 AM

Excellent news! BBBY just authorized another $2B of buybacks, which when added to the 800m already authorized, totals $2.8B in planned buybacks by the end of FY2016. At today’s prices, those buybacks would reduce the share count by about 47M from [more]

Mon Jul 7

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for BBBY. 3:27 PM

BBBY looking really attractive under $60. Frankly, i'd be shocked if this equity dosen't outperform over the next few years from this entry point.

Tue Jul 1

NL

Boards Post

JohnCLeven replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 8:11 AM

Re: good question

I'm not sure how you define young people, but i'm 25 years old. I bought my first shares of BRK.B at $79.83 in one lump-sum purchase on 6/6/2012. BRK.B was selling for 1.097x BV at the time. This also happened to be the first time I bought shares in [more]

Wed Jun 18

CAPS Underperform Pitch Reply

JohnCLeven commented on JohnCLeven's pitch for TSLA. 10:21 PM

"Our conclusion is that, with few exceptions, when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." 1980 Berkshire [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 76.81
Player Rank 17398 out of 75032
Score 257.76
Score Change Today -4.27
Accuracy 63.95%
Active Picks 47
Total Picks 93
Best Pick WAG (+100.99)
Worst Pick COH (-91.74)
Average Score per Pick 2.77
Charms Earned 4
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
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Boards Stats & Trivia

One star, 50 posts
Board Posts 138
Recs Received 594
People who have rec'd these posts 245
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 24
Threads Started Percentage 17.39 %
Most Frequent Board Berkshire Hathaway
Very First Post Re: BRK's early years (4/12/2013)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 68.12 %
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