FlyingCircus’ Activity

Sun Jul 26

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:45 PM

Re: OUCH

"Making up losses is much harder than reinvesting stored capital once a clearer picture emerges." - Jeffrey Saut

What my signals say:
- $NAHL went bearish this week. As usual, that's the first of the BC's to switch.
- [more]

Thu Jul 23

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:26 PM

Market Timing with Value and Momentum

A natural question is what happens when we combine the valuation-based signals with the momentum-based signals?

Here at Alpha Architect, we are big believers in Value and Momentum. We have written about how to combine Value and Momentum in [more]

Mon Jul 20

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:47 AM

Re: RTW

I have stopped using it for a couple of years+ for those reasons.

I have the spreadsheet I used to post the rankings for that year+, for import of prices using Yahoo Finance from specific lookbacks and calculating the segmented returns and [more]

Sat Jul 18

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:08 PM

Re: Median P/E

As analogues to today's market environment (earnings yield) I would suggest one could cherry pick early 1990, March 2000, and December 2007 off the top of the head. Maybe a couple of others?

Jim, what were the actual results forward in these [more]

Wed Jul 15

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus posted to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 11:34 PM

July Macro analysis ("Fat Pitch")

Interesting and easy to read look at the 10-15 year trends in four major factors -

[more]

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Retire Early CampFIRE board. 1:34 PM

Re: "Peace in our time"

This pRezident is no better than Booosh, and worse than Carter. Good thing Leonid, Mikhail and the USSR are long gone.

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus posted to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:31 PM

OMG just default & Grexit already!

Tsipras: I don't believe in what I'm doing but we have to to get more money and talk about restructuring in the fall.
German finance guy: Wait, what? We didn't agree to that.
Eurozone: you gotta pay us first tomorrow before you get more [more]

Tue Jul 14

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:43 PM

Re: Fidelity

blows a tailfin and goes into a hard spin of -30%+ ...
The good thing about CAGR figures ...

What makes you assume that was talking CAGR? Or expecting homeruns right off the bat?
Why go to all the trouble of coming up with a [more]

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:17 PM

Re: Fidelity

SiPro screens keep working... better than average over the long term. Or so I think.
Exhibit A - GentleScreamers (more volatile than all but 12 of 235 screens in The Universe) after being a top performer for 3 and 6 months and [more]

Mon Jul 13

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:28 PM

Re: Fidelity

I wish I shared your confidence in those (any) screens outperforming *consistently* for the next 5-10 years. Is your relative going to be able to tolerate a 20%+ decline in balance inside of a year, which is a 50-50 bet in that timeframe using those [more]

Sun Jul 12

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:27 PM

Re: Fidelity

So, not clear if you are aware from the post, so if I'm stating the obvious I apologize: opening the account at Fidelity and doing the managed services for the <2% annual fee are two separate decisions; you can do the one without the [more]

Wed Jul 8

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:12 PM

Re: can-o-worms

How about this definition? Interregnum: 1. a period when normal (posting) is suspended, especially between successive (informative threads) - while ideological off-topic rantings incessantly occur?

At least this ancient message board has [more]

Mon Jul 6

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:34 PM

Re: Recent BCC Signals

So... $NAHL is not a hard to follow indicator.

It is a relatively short to intermediate term indicator.

And, as many - many - historical posts have discussed, it is appropriate to use as part of a "dashboard", to form a [more]

Fri Jul 3

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:58 AM

Re: 200 DMA as a Timing Signal

Thank you for a refreshing post with someone's update on a subject that's been researched heavily. Two points the author makes are worth highlighting:
As it turns out the choice of a 200-day moving average is arbitrary and sub-optimal. A [more]

Thu Jul 2

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:33 PM

Re: S&P Up or Down

"I just don't understand why...
...let me bang the same drum pointing out one thing you said 11 years ago that was wrong using a cherrypicked strawman timeframe of my choosing..."

because why?

<ignore>

Wed Jun 24

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Building / Maintaining a Home board. 4:50 PM

Re: Engineered Exterior Trim Opinions

I used Azek on the screened-in-porch rebuild done last fall. I've been very happy with it. It is perfect for the application you describe. I used it for the 3 weather sides of the columns framing the screens and the outer sills over the [more]

Mon Jun 22

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:23 PM

Re: Robotic mechanical investing?

As well, the rise of black box / quant investing is across the board and will be the next big thing - until it's not, when it breaks because of crowded trades and repeated patterns across the black boxes.

Interesting point of view at the [more]

Wed Jun 17

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:56 AM

Re: market very or barely overvalued?

What to do is, reduce our expectations of the future forward average returns of stocks to "below average". To expect US stocks to return 8% on average would seem nonsensical, given the historical 5 and 10 year return record from points when [more]

Mon Jun 15

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:37 PM

Re: Market Trend Indicators

Ah. Then it's PPO (20,100) etc, not some personal proprietary indicator. Thanks!

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Building / Maintaining a Home board. 6:22 PM

Re: Azek/VAST resurfacing paver success

I understand your questions. Yes this deck is exposed although under a shingled shed roof coming off the house. As for moisture, think of the grid as a latticework with minimal contact points to the floor; and the pavers interlock in the grid about [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 3171
Recs Received 11203
People who have rec'd these posts 1814
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 4.70
Threads Started 523
Threads Started Percentage 16.49 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post IRA - Transferring $ (2/18/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 54.65 %
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