FlyingCircus’ Activity

Yesterday

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FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:08 AM

The next GTR1?

Five years ago, the sort of programming involved in McKee’s 1-trillion-point dense matrix would have taken months of coding and $1 million-plus of hardware. Now McKee simply logs onto Amazon Web Services to name his price for computing capacity [more]

Mon May 18

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:42 PM

Re: another simple asset rotation

Beware any system that includes TLT or other long bond ETFs for the period between @2003-2012. Replace TLT with a short duration ETF or something like <5yr duration and what happens?

TLT has had a historical run with the decline to ZIRP [more]

Wed May 13

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:13 PM

Re: On the Arezi / Fed model...

There are a lot of people, including many of the <remaining> denizens of this board, who are smart and it doesn't translate into making a lot of money.

There's no reason to discount a thorough analysis / critical eye on a subject or [more]

Tue May 12

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FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:19 PM

On the Arezi / Fed model...

The belief that equity valuations are “not so high when you compare the returns on equities to the returns on safe assets like bonds” is a common one, but is based on overgeneralizing a very limited period of history. Specifically, the “Fed Model” [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:55 AM

Re: How this POS (IMH) got on GentleScreamers...

Thank you Robbie for the reminder. To roll it up, it means that the weekly SI rankings are always suspect for the several screens that use CF and/or TTM fields, and need confirmation.

've just put "reinstall the GTR1 Helper and use the [more]

Mon May 11

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FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:46 PM

How this POS (IMH) got on GentleScreamers...?

I bought it last Tuesday on a turnover and next day boom -25%. The price exploded in February and March, apparently driven by an acquisition.
The Price/Cash Flow is 5.5, but "Free Cash Flow" (on Fidelity) is --... so how did this co. [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:22 PM

Re: Rankings 11May2015

As an aside, AB has been on YEY for... months.

Fri May 8

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:26 AM

Re: Does the Unicorn smell a Bear?

And right on cue, the happy music started today...

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:41 AM

Re: Does the Unicorn smell a Bear?

No need to be quite so twitchy - EMA9 just went negative today, but -unless this is actually a short term correction developing - like the last 6 times this happened the markets will bounce in the next couple of days.

[more]

Wed May 6

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:30 AM

Re: Triple MA Crossover

I'm sorry, I've had one too many Cinco de Mayo cocktails - but I do not understand the definition of this system.
Is this a blend of 40% ITOT, 30% RSP, 20% MDY, 10% IWM when the the SMA21 and SMA42 are (both) above the SMA168? Or that both SMA [more]

Tue May 5

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:32 AM

Re: FolioFN Transaction Statistics

Isn't the term for what you guys are researching "slippage" - trading price variations -, not "friction", for commissions and fees?

Mon May 4

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:09 PM

Re: asset rotation fails?

The S&P 500 cap-weighted as an "asset class" has blown everything else away for the last few years. This doesn't invalidate the practice of reducing risk through diversification; all it says is where the big money (of QE2 & 3) has [more]

Sat May 2

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:17 AM

Re: I have done this before but...

So at long last I actually tried TradeSim the backtester and tried to backtest the RS/PE version you mentioned on it. First let me say that Tradesim is a pretty cool tool and you guys have obviously invested a lot of time keeping it running and [more]

Fri May 1

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:26 PM

Re: Long-term value MI?

Captain Obvious asks.../i>
Those deeper value picks that you plan to hold for months to years until they revert to historical pricing norms.... one would assume that no timing signals such as DBE / NHNL would influence that segment of your
[more]

Wed Apr 29

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:46 PM

Re: I have done this before but...

From Jared Cook's recent scribe on Pascal's Wager:
The people who were yelling at me that Japan was going to zero have a lot in common with the very vocal atheists you see on Facebook. They have an overwhelming desire to be right all the [more]

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FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:35 PM

The Good with the Bad

A couple of weeks ago in Biff-Poww it was NHTC with a punch to the face... today it's HELE up 11% with a bandage and some medicine. Just sayin' ;-)

FC

Mon Apr 27

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:07 PM

Re: A Weighted* View

Or like the Walking Dead. About the same level of thought. No matter how many axes and crossbow bolts get shot into the knuckle-dragging zombies, there's always another one stumbling out of the woods.

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:05 PM

Re: New S&P high

That data table is a welcome refresher Jim. I might point out that the mounded returns being positive out to 150 days is why Z came upon a modified longer cycle out to about that duration. As can be seen 120 days is still a healthy expected result. [more]

Sun Apr 26

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:12 PM

Re: A Weighted* View

Bryan, enough. You can sit there and take snide shots at everyone else on this board and for some reason some feel the need to justify their methods to you.

Why snipe? Your mind is made up. Fine. No one here needs to explain their methods [more]

Fri Apr 24

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FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:26 PM

On Timing Signals and Defense

As we enter the historically weaker summer season, and stocks are flat and overvalued, remember that the goal of timing signals such as the 99d DBE is not only to provide defense, but also to prevent us from panicking and getting out too [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 3129
Recs Received 11048
People who have rec'd these posts 1798
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 4.60
Threads Started 514
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Very First Post IRA - Transferring $ (2/18/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 54.43 %
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