FlyingCircus’ Activity

Mon Dec 22

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Retire Early CampFIRE board. 11:29 PM

Re: Meanwhile, back in Germany

The world has seen this movie before ...

Ahem... No. Really? This is your belief? Just short of 70 years of complete systemic re-education, societal exposure and self-examination of the evils of that time, to the point where it is [more]

NL

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FlyingCircus replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 11:11 AM

Re: The high cost of medical care

Thank you for posting this, and it is wonderful news that they found your tumors early.

I am carefully managing our income to keep it low enough to qualify for the subsidy.

And that is the classic problem with subsidies [more]

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:49 AM

Re: SI Screen Taxonomy / Field Map

Doesn't just downloading the file to your device and opening in Excel work? The dropbox view is just a view.

Sun Dec 21

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:02 PM

SI Screen Taxonomy / Field Map

Below is a link to a spreadsheet with a matrix of all the SI Pro screens and the fields each one uses as selection factors, based on the most recent definitions I had access to. I set this up so one could use this to quickly see factors under- and [more]

Tue Dec 16

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Retire Early CampFIRE board. 9:43 PM

Re: Bret Stephens WSJ: I am not sorry

FWIW - I am not sorry that the US has avoided an attack similar to today's murder of 130 children in Pakistan. In the chance that our oh-so-slightly-abhorrent EITs helped even once or a little to prevent an atrocity like that, then thank you to those [more]

Fri Dec 12

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:35 PM

Re: $NAHL bearish

...assets other than SPY?

Momentum studies have shown very similar effects on non-US equity markets other than the really micro emerging space. For example: 99D went bearish on EFA last month and it's clearly in a downtrend. 99D went [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:23 PM

Re: $NAHL bearish

Yes, it's gone bearish in the last couple of days as the EMA9 has gone below 0 (or -10 according to Zeelotes' version.)
Here's a corrected version of that chart/link.
The longer EMA was designed for 27, not 13.

[more]

Thu Dec 11

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:10 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

Good starting idea. When you start at 19960218 (latest available minimum start for all 6 asset pairs you set up), and remove the 15% stop gain, it's a closer-to-reality 17.2 CAGR vs the 20 reported above. That's in line with earlier backtests of [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the 77's Foolish House of Pigskin board. 5:54 PM

Re: Newbie questions

Further expanding on "the balance between season length and player longevity has become well-established over time."

Player longevity varies by position. The average NFL running back's career is something like 3 1/2 or 4 years due [more]

Tue Dec 9

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:32 PM

Re: simple asset allocation SPY and TLT

TLT will not repeat that performance again...

Elan's point cannot be repeated too often.

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:16 PM

Re: Question about Net-Net Grahamified

There is no MI "consensus" on these other than, understand the risks, invest in them at your own risk with eyes wide open according to your own risk profile, and your mileage may vary.

FC

Mon Dec 8

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:10 PM

Re: Question about Net-Net Grahamified

Net Nets tends to identify the same "cigar butts" / aka deep value companies. I haven't used Net Nets in at least 7 years - but two of those companies, maybe three - are the same companies that were in that situation 7 years ago - TAIT and [more]

NL

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FlyingCircus replied to the 77's Foolish House of Pigskin board. 4:03 PM

Re: Browner hit

Part of the rationale for the call was "defenseless receiver", which he was. But if they are going to start calling tough hits like that before the receiver is "set" and running away... then they should just make the name change [more]

Fri Dec 5

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:39 PM

Re: OT - A short story about how economics work

This thread has a net worth of -100. My God, please make it stop.

Thu Dec 4

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 6:05 PM

Re: Still another look at screen performance

For me, the major attention grabber was the large number of screens that came thru the Great Recession in good shape

Your analysis is well received, and nice. "Wet blanket" says, "yeah but" - ;-) in reality, [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:55 AM

Re: Russia in crosshairs of OPEC

They will use the threat of military action as leverage to get direct financial relief from the US and China to cover their losses. Putin isn't going to stand by and take this from Saudi Arabia.

The West is under no circumstances going to [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:45 AM

Re: OT: Crickets

Struggling to understand how someone can find the skill and the time to run backtests on and post about 100 annual screens, but say they don't have the time to run backtests on an idea like ROIC or cash flow or EBITDA.

From 17 to 10, 8 even [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:23 AM

Re: Recent Hindenburg Omens

Not sure about that HO on the Nasdaq. On Friday 11/28, barely - 10wk MA was barely rising, and minimum of new highs and lows was 89 lows, which was a little more than the 76 needed (2.3%). But the McClellan was positive (barely at 4.8 on the Naz, 13 [more]

Sun Nov 30

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:42 PM

A problem for MI Screens

Re-quoted from Josh Brown at The Reformed Broker:
In this weekend’s Barron’s – the magazine itself being a Temple to Active Management – columnist Bill Alpert takes on the fact that nearly all stockpickers have underperformed their benchmarks [more]

Sat Nov 22

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the 77's Foolish House of Pigskin board. 11:03 PM

Re: Stop me if you've heard this before

As a Patriots fan... I have a hard time believing it, this winning streak, the whole thing. They are relying on the same personnel as the awful 2-2 team that imploded against the Chiefs... the offensive differences are subtle (albeit a big one) in [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 3022
Recs Received 10764
People who have rec'd these posts 1787
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 5.60
Threads Started 506
Threads Started Percentage 16.74 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post IRA - Transferring $ (2/18/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 53.81 %
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