FlyingCircus’ Activity

Sat Sep 13

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:28 PM

Re: things you should know the difference betwee

What I see, for what it's worth, is two smart, committed, opinionated, hardheaded guys competing over ideas.

Please, neither one of you leave - you know that they're worthwhile ideas. Don't feel like one of you has to "win". [more]

Thu Sep 11

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:13 PM

Re: things you should know the difference betwee

Ah, a cynic...

Wed Sep 10

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FlyingCircus replied to the Political Asylum board. 11:26 PM

Re: ISIS is no crisis

Your fearless leader disagrees. How do you handle that conundrum?

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:20 PM

Re: 2 bagger

Well, that's just one of those posts where like Ray says, it's more emotional / feel good about locking in a gain. Context/tongue-in-cheek-ness gets lost online. Absolutely not backtestable. Whatever - to each his own!

Tue Sep 9

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:37 PM

Re: 2 bagger

in less than an hour drops by 1/3 Teaching you a new lesson of the times that was definitely not 1999: when you luck into a 2 bagger, sell it! (The modern term for that is "profit latch" ;-)

FC

Mon Sep 8

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:18 PM

Re: 2 bagger

Re: PPS MI FAQ:
Look to the right on any (individual) post.
And if you'd like to contribute findings on using GTR1 or Lohill's excellent mapping utility or drill down on any topic and keep it fresher... feel free - it's a wiki!

FC

Sun Aug 31

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:21 PM

Re: See no evil... valuation doesn't matter, rig

I'm pretty sure the context of this thread was OVER, a long time ago. Political hijackers on a thread. Thank goodness for the ignore thread button.

Tue Aug 26

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:16 PM

Re: See no evil... valuation doesn't matter, rig

Pulling from Faber: CAPE isn’t really a short term timing measure for one market. Like most valuation measures, it is a blunt tool and it’s not that helpful telling you what to do for the next few months. It makes much more sense to align the [more]

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:58 PM

Re: CAPE: Am I Missing Something?

if your own portfolio does not contain things that are overvalued.

For most MI-screen users I would suppose that the portfolios by default contain many US stocks that are potentially "overvalued" aka high growth, notable [more]

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FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:01 PM

See no evil... valuation doesn't matter, right?

Furthermore, the study found that there is little basis in the historical record for thinking the market will somehow be able to sidestep a big decrease during the next five years: “Going back to 1900, there has been only one instance when the [more]

Thu Aug 21

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:38 PM

Re: Bear Catchers Combined

Are not the months August-September historically expected to be the worst months(hitting lows not highs)?

Ok, that's what you meant! Yes, that is historically the worst of the seasonal period, and what is different. However it is a [more]

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:43 AM

Re: Bear Catchers Combined

Huh?

The 3 BCC's together have been steadfastly bullish for 2+ years. The variant has been NH/NL, which has occasionally flipped to bearish and each time very quickly flipped back as the market has drawn buying at every brief [more]

Wed Aug 20

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FlyingCircus replied to the Atheist Fools board. 10:29 PM

Re: off to college

DD (only child) goes to college across the country (DU) in a week 1/2. I could copy this post verbatim. Good luck to us and our newly empty nests. Well played.

FC

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:15 PM

Re: OT: Well, that's a relief!

Another wasted, sarcastic, obnoxious post.

Back on the ignore list.

FC

Mon Aug 18

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:37 PM

Re: NH/NL

Whipsaw - a signal that triggered / flipped from one state to the other, promptly followed by a reversal. Promptly to be defined, but anywhere from a day to 10-15 days.

Degree of blood drawn by the whip: in a positive whip, directly [more]

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:24 PM

Re: Poll: How have you done using screens

There isn't an answer for me - all of the above. It depends on the timeframe. And the approaches / screens have been different. And whether you used cash / timing / hold till death.

Since January 1998 when I started with the limited AOL [more]

Thu Aug 14

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:06 PM

Re: ot: Bull market on last legs

Interesting idea - the slope of the PPO itself may be a great <=3 month timing signal, like the SMA slope Bearcatcher.

When PPO (25,125) is < PPO (25,125 5 days ago, exit; when it crosses back above -5 days ago get back [more]

Sat Aug 9

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FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 4:24 PM

Re: market timers taken notice

...aka missing the forest (that you saved) for the trees (along the edge that got cut down).

Thu Aug 7

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FlyingCircus replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 8:24 PM

Re: H2nO

Siphoned to California.

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:19 PM

Re: Have the definition of earnings changed

Mark, I take Jim's point a different way. It's that taking the 10 cheapest country PEs and going for them isn't necessarily enough. If, for example, Italy's CAPE is second or third lowest as it is now, but it's always been historically low (around [more]

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Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 2952
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Very First Post IRA - Transferring $ (2/18/1998)
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