FlyingCircus’ Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus posted to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:35 PM

Golden Minerals? ;-)

Someone with big pockets using MicroMo take a shot at AUMN today?
Up 6% at the open, another 12% or so right at 11AM (Folio window time), another 20% in the last 1/2 hour of trading. No news.

Whomever it was, I love these lucky [more]

Wed Jun 25

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:28 PM

Re: different periods, different results


People are allatime thinking that absolute return is the most important thing, when in fact the most important thing is risk-adjusted return.


LOL at "allatime", and an echo on The Most Important Thing.

Mon Jun 23

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:56 PM

Re: Poll: Market predictions

Ok, enough. This vendetta about predictions is really becoming tiresome. Your point has been made ad nauseum. Time to move on.

FC

Sat Jun 21

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Hockey Fans Board board. 9:38 PM

Re: Go Rangers!

Soccer would be vastly, immediately improved by one rule:

- a "blue line" and an offsides rule similar to hockey.

Think of the excitement and playmaking opportunities available if, once legally across that line (30 or 40 [more]

Tue Jun 17

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:07 PM

Re: How predictive was CAPE in the past?

Thank you Jim, for yet another user-friendly, succinct synthesis of a dense and contentious topic. I loved "The Fed Model is the most spectacular piece of data overmining ever attempted". It's all about increasing the probability of winning [more]

Sat Jun 14

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Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:07 AM

Re: Mebane Faber’s CAPE technique

FC may see years of trouble ahead for Russia, and therefore wants to avoid it. I’m not sure buying a Lebanon ETF in 1977 would have been a good investment.

Bingo.

All these systems do, is give the user a list of [more]

Thu Jun 12

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:47 PM

Re: Mebane Faber’s CAPE technique

Thanks for yet another misdirected judgement, Bryan. There's a maxim you might have forgotten about value investing - sometimes, things are and stay cheap for very good reasons. With Russia, those reasons are plenty.

FC

Wed Jun 11

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:17 PM

Re: Mebane Faber’s CAPE technique

So, I started it last fall using those CAPE studies that Faber used as the foundation of the new book you've just read.

9 months ago that information was not behind the Idea Farm paywall. I've been too busy to deal with the IF subscription [more]

Tue Jun 10

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Oaktree Capital Group, LLC board. 10:43 PM

Re: Nice yield

I thought Mark's "Dare to be Great II" was... well, great.

For those who define investment success as being “average or better,” three of the four cells of the matrix represent satisfactory outcomes. But if you define success [more]

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:27 PM

Re: Are we in a stealth bear market

US Large caps have been outperforming small caps - outperforming everything globally - for two+ years. This is, not news.

Look at Minyanville and advisorperspectives for great, concise analyses of the divergences that have been in place [more]

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:17 PM

Re: timing, revisited

Mean reversion, oui?

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:14 AM

Re: Weekly Trade Ledgers 6/09/2014

Look at the money come piling back in last week!

Mon Jun 9

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:01 PM

Re: CAPE is crapola

Really?
2013 since 9/18/13 - Spain, starting from CAPE 7.8 - up 34%
- Ireland, starting from CAPE 5.6 - up 20%
- Greece, starting from CAPE 2+ - up @33%

EEM +@5%
SPY +12.7%

You're right, total waste of [more]

Sat Jun 7

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:27 AM

Re: Probabilistic Momentum

I did actually read that paper in the winter, so you're not alone. For what it's worth, I am guessing the 'RTW' and DecisionMoose methods are similar to this mathematically, with less granular relative momentum calculations.

RTW used two [more]

Fri Jun 6

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:50 PM

Re: Taxes... Who's counting anyway?

if 100% of income comes from LONG term capital gains, you pay $0 in taxes from $100,000 gains (that 0% tax).

So, I am not sure that's accurate. How do you figure that?

FC

Tue Jun 3

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 9:36 PM

Re: Is Seattle crazy?

You're right. Drive the workers completely to welfare instead of only partially to welfare, increase unemployment even more, adding more billions to our government spending and debt (because you can't raise taxes enough on the workers in [more]

Mon Jun 2

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:53 PM

Re: OT: A lousy month

Well, FWIW I met my defensive goal - MI up .7% for the month with 75% cash, 25% in an RS1M / 3m hold strategy and the last couple of days only 20% back in YEY. Not looking to beat the S&P or Wilshire every month.

Non-MI up [more]

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:44 PM

Re: Indexer is working again!

Mr. Dressner did say it was in your court; I didn't completely believe him but this is great news! Thanks!

Sat May 31

NL

Boards Post

FlyingCircus replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:13 AM

Re: OT: Sagan Spyder

Absolutely beautiful! Bravo!

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Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 2916
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People who have rec'd these posts 1773
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Threads Started 495
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Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post IRA - Transferring $ (2/18/1998)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 53.57 %
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