FLARAM’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:26 AM

Re: GTR1 buy-and-hold-forever: codable?

Thanks Robbie!

Every time you post you enlighten me just a little more. If I can just retain a small fraction
of the information provided I'll be satisfied.

Kudos to whoever originally encoded this screen (if it wasn't [more]

Tue Apr 26

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:30 AM

Re: GTR1 buy-and-hold-forever: codable?

Just to be clear I wasn't suggesting anyone actually try any buy and hold forever, I was just curious.

elann:
What is the universe from which the top 63% are taken
From the SIP data. In 2000 this included around 9400 equities [more]

Mon Apr 25

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:41 PM

Re: GTR1 buy-and-hold-forever: codable?

In the second box on the line labelled "Hold if still passing buy/open conditions through Step ..

Thanks Jim, Just out of curiosity I thought it would be interesting if we ran a Trending Value screen with a hold forever. Only [more]

Wed Apr 20

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:55 PM

Re: Backtesters

GTR1 is updated daily. Price of course changes daily and SIP, VL, Marketsmith and Zacks when new
data becomes available. You can see how old any field is by entering "list*.*" in the Command line-only
options in the Miscellaneous [more]

Thu Apr 7

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:20 PM

Re: I had 40% CAGR in Radiscript. Not in GTR1. W

apacheco10-

RAM- I tried inputting your translation into the GTR1 helper but nothing output. Also, nothing compiled in GTR1 itself. Am I doing this right?

Sorry but the above example was a from my personal backtester based on [more]

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Political Asylum board. 10:33 AM

Re: Scott (R-FL) can't get coffee @ Starbucks

I agree the lower classes should stay in their little living rooms in their single-wide trailers, not out fraternizing with real people, but every once in a while one slips through and makes it to a Starbucks for some fresh air and conversation. . [more]

Wed Apr 6

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 7:23 PM

Re: I had 40% CAGR in Radiscript. Not in GTR1. W

As Mark and Rayvt have pointed out Keelix's backtester was useful but dangerously susceptible to
data mining in the extreme. Notice that your job number was the 318,607th screen run on Keelix's site.
It looks like you picked a couple of [more]

Mon Apr 4

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:44 PM

Re: Rule Breakers Rule Makers

Rule Breakers was written in 2000. In march 2003 they stopped running a real money portfolio
using Rule Breaker strategy because they were losing money. See:
[more]

Thu Mar 31

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:32 AM

Re: OT: A glimpse of the future ?

It's been a long time coming! DARPA has been supporting research for alternative neural/array
computers for many years. I worked on a proposal to DARPA for a neural network computer
architecture based on custom IC's more than 20 years ago. [more]

Fri Mar 25

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Political Asylum board. 2:49 PM

Re: Polls Show Kasich Beating Clinton

NO ONE CAN START A THITD-PARTY CAMPAIGN IN JULY !!!
There are filing deadlines in all states.


Not true for independent candidates. Only 4 states requires signatures by June 2016 the rest
are spread out over the following 3 [more]

Mon Mar 21

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:19 PM

Re: Faber QTAA 13 GTR1 Backtest

Adding to an old but good thread on asset rotation.

Ern2Win posted an simple but nice QTAA rotation in which he extended the length back in 3/2014.
At that time DBC and RSP didn't work and were left out. I added back DBC and RSP which [more]

Sun Mar 20

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 10:32 AM

Re: More simple stuff: S&P500 Dividend Play

klouche: The very top dividend stocks are likely to be in trouble.

Rayvt: Assuming facts not in evidence. . . And really--I could perhaps see the argument that the top 1 or 2 might be in trouble. But the top 50???

I [more]

Fri Mar 18

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 1:21 PM

Re: Weekly Trade Ledgers 3/14/2016

Tried both links with Explorer, Chrome and Firefox several times yesterday and today. It isn't working
for me either. I think wikisend is the problem.

RAM

Sun Mar 13

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 8:42 PM

Re: Did the Moose get it right?

In case you didn't notice, the Moose switched from cash to GLD on 3/4. My measure of Riding the
Wave did the same on 2/12.


It's a confused situation right now. Many of the different active asset allocation systems are beginning [more]

Tue Mar 8

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 9:30 AM

Re: When to stop using a screen

Suppose I have a list of numbers, and I wanted to know if the mean is greater than zero, which helps me say, "This set of numbers is greater than zero! (that means that I am expecting this to outperform an index!" What formula would I [more]

Sun Mar 6

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:48 PM

Re: slow steady cagr rolloff

slow steady cagr rolloff. . . Is there any screen that exhibits this post sample?

It seems like you automatically assume the worst for all MI screens. As TGMark, Mungo
and borisnad have pointed out virtually all the MI screens [more]

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 2:25 PM

Re: Calculate PEG

AAII has two SIP screens using low PEG ratios.

Value on the Move--PEG With Est Growth CAGR last 10yr 9.4%
Value on the Move--PEG With Hist Growth CAGR last 10 yr 7.2%

RAM

Wed Mar 2

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 12:25 PM

Re: Users On This Mechanical Investing Board

My personal opinion is that gtr1 is overly optimistic.

When P123 switched from Reuters to Compustat several P123 users posted that
their screens had slightly lower backtest results. However I find it difficult to question
that [more]

Tue Mar 1

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:11 AM

Re: Users On This Mechanical Investing Board

I subscribed to P123 for a few years. It has some very nice usable features. I like the user interface,
quality data, capability quickly do histograms of multiple factors and different buy/sell rules which allow
construction of screens with [more]

Mon Feb 29

NL

Boards Post

FLARAM replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 3:09 PM

Re: does 10 year backtest predict 1 year returns

The current one year results may not lead to a valid evaluation of how screens perform over the long
run. Try a spread sheet of monthly returns for all screens, each month pick only the x% of screens with
the best long term performance to [more]

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