ElCid16’s Activity

Fri Dec 12

Blog Post

ElCid16 added a blog post. 2:07 PM

Gerdau is the best steel investment right now

A holding of Pabrai’s that has caught the attention of quite a few value investors (including me) over the past year or so is POSCO (PKX). POSCO has been a Buffett (BRK) and Munger (DJCO) holding for a while and has recently become [more]

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on ElCid16's blog post. 11:54 AM

L or LUK (or MKL)?

Just as a disclosure, MKL is my 3rd largest RL holding, and my largest holding that is not an ETF.

Blog Post

ElCid16 added a blog post. 11:23 AM

L or LUK (or MKL)?

Loews or Leucadia?  I’ve been eying both of these companies for the better part of 2 years.  They’ve both been trading consistently below book value, which is fairly rare for these 2 particular holding companies.  [more]

Tue Dec 9

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on AaronRogers's blog post. 11:59 PM

Why Oil Might not be at a Bottom and does it matter?

“Buy when it’s cheap – if not then, when?”  - James Montier

Here's my question: if now isn't cheap enough, when is cheap enough? Are you banking on a non-measurable psychological factor?  Are you

[more]

Blog Post

ElCid16 added a blog post. 11:39 PM

Expecting high profitability is just as risky as expecting high growth

Several months back I wrote a blog post discussing the PEG ratio.  The purpose of the post was to describe that a stock trading at a P/E in the 20s could still be undervalued as long as the stock could grow at double digit [more]

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 3:45 PM

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 2:36 PM

Total (ADR) (TOT) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 2:36 PM

Royal Dutch Shell CL A (RDS-A) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 11:03 AM

Loews (L) will Outperform the S&P 500

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on Dividends4Life's blog post. 10:59 AM

Dividends vs. Stock Buybacks

Collectively, the 5 companies you mentioned spent almost as much money on share buybacks as dividend payments.  For Exxon, over the past 10 years, cash spent on share buybacks is probably 2-3x cash spent on dividend

[more]

Fri Dec 5

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on ElCid16's blog post. 2:51 PM

Has the risk/reward for PBR hit an attractive level?

Investing in a company [with no debt] trading at a 3.75x pre-tax earnings will inevitably involve uncertainty.  There's no such thing as a sure bet that trades for that cheap.

[more]

Wed Dec 3

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on ElCid16's blog post. 12:14 AM

Has the risk/reward for PBR hit an attractive level?

Yeah, Apache looks ok.

0.78 P/B - looks cheap for a US-based independent with low debt, but ROE has only averaged about 10% over the past 20 years.  Compare that to BP (17% ROE over past 20 years) or CVX

[more]

Tue Dec 2

CAPS Outperform Pitch

ElCid16 wrote about Teck Resources Limited (USA) (TCK) . 10:27 PM

TCK Outperform

Trading for about 47% of book value.

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 10:27 PM

Teck Resources Limited (USA) (TCK) will Outperform the S&P 500

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on ElCid16's blog post. 4:03 PM

Has the risk/reward for PBR hit an attractive level?

As of today, PBR trading at about 37% of book value, LUKOY trading at about 47% of book value.

From what I've found, it looks like PBR has about 16B barrels in proven reserves, while LUKOY has about 13.5B.

[more]

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 3:38 PM

LUKOIL (ADR) (LUKOY) will Outperform the S&P 500

Caps Pick

ElCid16 made a pick in CAPS. 10:19 AM

Apache Corp (APA) will Outperform the S&P 500

Mon Dec 1

Blog Comment

ElCid16 commented on ElCid16's blog post. 8:11 PM

Nike isn't a sell, let alone a "Strong Sell"

Ok, here we are another 10 months since my last comment.  YTD shares are up another 24%, compared to the 11% for the SPY.

Since EE's blog post, Nike is up roughly 110%.  The SPY is up about

[more]

CAPS Outperform Pitch Reply

ElCid16 commented on ElCid16's pitch for PBR. 1:50 PM

http://basehitinvesting.com/buffetts-petrochina-investment-finding-large-gaps-between-price-value/

Blog Post

ElCid16 added a blog post. 1:48 PM

Has the risk/reward for PBR hit an attractive level?

“You don’t have to know a man’s exact weight to know that he’s fat.” - Ben GrahamI know PBR is a nationalized Integrated Oil Company.  I know [more]

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CAPS Stats & Trivia

CAPS Player Rating 97.19
Player Rank 2112 out of 75066
Score 1604.99
Score Change Today +47.95
Accuracy 61.45%
Active Picks 196
Total Picks 1054
Best Pick GILD (+210.25)
Worst Pick GGP (-305.53)
Average Score per Pick 1.52
Charms Earned 11
Highest Rated Favorite valuemoney
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Boards Stats & Trivia

CAPS All Star
Board Posts 2
Recs Received 6
People who have rec'd these posts 4
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 0
Threads Started Percentage 0.00 %
Most Frequent Board Deranged Monkey Criticism
Very First Post Re: Lulu weak (6/17/2014)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 100.00 %
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