EightTrack4

John Jacob Jingleheimerschmidt

EightTrack4’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

Boards Post

EightTrack4 replied to the Stereo 8 board. 3:12 PM

Re: APO

From my perspective as an investor in BX, what makes things so favorable is their ability to grow so significantly while paying out so much of their earnings. I don't know of anything similar.

I agree with you but would offer a few [more]

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:42 PM

Re: Cheap stocks or earnings growth

*you already know this but it bears repeating - we aren't just tracking past growth or 12m trailing growth or free cash flow. We are also predicting future growth too. Obviously life is easier if you can actually clearly identify HOW a company is [more]

Wed Apr 15

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 10:42 PM

Re: PHM.v wait and see

I still think PHM will eventually blow up, but right now Michael Dalsin is a rock star and this could go on a lot longer than I thought if they keep issuing stock at ever higher levels. There are just some things that I don't understand and never [more]

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EightTrack4 replied to the Stereo 8 board. 3:59 PM

Re: APO

Still interested if anybody has any additional thoughts, particularly risks I may be overlooking or any ideas about Blackstone valuation. I am not interesting in adding to BX here, but am not currently planning on selling.

I own BX [more]

Thu Apr 9

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:40 AM

Re: DAP.U-X

I agree these are much stronger and better financed competitors than in the past, but I still don't think these generic releases will put a huge dent in Biosyent's competitive position. Maybe they take 5-10% market share from Biosyent, maybe a [more]

Wed Apr 8

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:16 PM

Re: DAP.U-X

without success not with success.

Ugh, Motley Tools.

ET

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:15 PM

Re: DAP.U-X

guess this is obvious but per a CF report there was another generic of feramax introduced; they suggest this is a non-issue cause there are other generics out there - and aren't that much cheaper - and cause the drug is not subject to [more]

Mon Apr 6

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 6:41 PM

Re: DAP.U-X

Been adding a little DAP.U.V, and RX.V in the last few days.

Both Cipher and Biosyent have traded off substantially ytd although Cipher started with a significantly more modest P/E ratio than RX.V the beginning of 2015.

I [more]

Fri Apr 3

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EightTrack4 posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:59 PM

Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market - 1999

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/MrBuffettStockMarket.pdf

I found myself reading once again Carol Loomis' article about the now-famous Buffett speech in September 1999 when he [more]

Tue Mar 31

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 3:57 PM

Re: bought MA

I have been guilty of the comment " It does not look cheap" without considering
- capital intensity
- eps growth
- roe
- predictability of eps growth
- etc etc


I think we've all been guilty of the [more]

Mon Mar 30

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EightTrack4 replied to the Stereo 8 board. 10:33 PM

Re: Morningstar take on alternative asset manage

Would like to find the reason why AUM didn't grow last year.

Apollo's three buckets are private equity, credit and real estate. The private equity group shrunk in 2014.

In 2013 APO raised their new flagship Fund VIII. [more]

Fri Mar 27

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:02 PM

Re: Anyone like AXP?

One more concern about Visa and Mastercard, which I neglected to mention, is the trend towards growing rebates/incentives during customer renewals.

Just as Costco clearly demanded a higher percentage of the Costco credit card value creation, [more]

Thu Mar 26

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EightTrack4 posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 7:38 PM

MTY Food Group: Fishin' with Chip

http://microcapclub.com/2015/03/mty-food-group-a-case-study-...

Another superb piece from bonechip2 about the 100x run in MTY. Bravo!

[more]

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EightTrack4 replied to the Stereo 8 board. 5:45 PM

Re: Morningstar take on alternative asset managers

Morningstar has a very different approach than other alt manager analysts.

Because of their DCF focus, their valuation of Apollo for example is much higher than Morgan Stanley. Morningstar thinks APO is a five star value ($40 or more) and [more]

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 1:18 PM

Re: Anyone like AXP?

For those of you that hold V and or MA does AXP have any interest

I own MA and V and AXP. It is pretty clear now that MA and V's network model is superior to the AXP closed-loop model; at the very least Mr. Market has consistently [more]

Wed Mar 25

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EightTrack4 replied to the Last RoundUp board. 6:21 PM

Re: ice

another not much to say - I have a residual of a much larger position and don't plan to sell it - this is very good high FCF biz linked of course to trading activity. With all the changes going on recently this is one annual that I probably need [more]

Tue Mar 24

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EightTrack4 replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 3:48 PM

Re: NWLI - Updated Thesis

I've looked at nwli but never realized what they sold.

Course, last I checked sales of non-traded REITS continue to be strong....


To be fair, my concerns about NWLI are below "circumstantial evidence" level of [more]

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EightTrack4 replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 12:53 PM

Re: NWLI - Updated Thesis

And if you owned it, would you sell it? Again, my largest concern is the US courts getting involved and recently issued a subpoena for records.

I briefly - emphasis on briefly - looked at NWLI. The discount to BV is intriguing but [more]

Tue Mar 17

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EightTrack4 replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 6:51 PM

Re: First Interest Rates Hike Since 2004

Amazing that the term "Shadow Banking" wasn't even coined until 2007 and the only folks back in 2004 that knew about QE and liquidity traps were Krugmanites and macroeconomic monetary policy wonks.

I'm going to ignore [more]

NL

Boards Post

EightTrack4 posted to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 1:23 PM

First Interest Rates Hike Since 2004

If as expected the Federal Reserve hikes the Federal Funds Rate later this year, we will embark on the first tightening cycle since June 2004.

While we all wait impatiently for the removal of the word patient, here are a few nuggets from [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 2180
Recs Received 9434
People who have rec'd these posts 1151
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 7.40
Threads Started 258
Threads Started Percentage 11.83 %
Most Frequent Board Liquid Lounge
Very First Post Only fear is AXA itself... (2/5/2001)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 82.98 %
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