AstroPhool

Phil Bennett

AstroPhool’s Activity

Wed Nov 19

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 10:15 AM

Re: Longwave & Shortwave Radation

Instead of carbon dioxide being like a blanket that slowly warms the planet, after about a decade most warming comes from melting ice and snow and a more moist atmosphere, which both cause Earth to absorb more shortwave radiation from the [more]

Thu Nov 6

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 4:00 PM

Re: A Look At The Arctic Death Spiral

Which states that by 2020 there will be a temperature anomaly of 0.7

Actually it's more like 1.0 C.

The baseline for the temperature anomaly is, I believe, the 30-year mean from 1950 to 1980. Significant warming has already [more]

Tue Oct 28

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Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 2:02 PM

Re: CO2 Is Not A Black Body Radiator

In addition, the emissivity of IR radiation by CO2 declines with temperature instead of increasing in proportion to the 4th power of temperature. From The Hockey Schtick:

This is completely incorrect!!

The Hockey [more]

Fri Oct 24

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Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 3:49 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

So (thinking like a skeptic) given the choice between typical glacial temps and an overly-warm CO2-forced temp, perhaps we would rather be hot.

Do you think we have the power to forestall the end of the interglacial indefinitely if we are
[more]

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AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 3:44 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

Phil, in this last fairly long post of yours, you are not telling us what is wrong with what I said and you are not explaining why CO2 is causing warming.

OK, I'll try and do this here.

Each patch of land, every rock, [more]

Thu Oct 23

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Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 11:04 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

The interglacials are just out on the far warm wing of this skewed frequency temperature distribution.

oops!... better make that last bit:

The interglacials are just out on the far warm wing of this skewed temperature [more]

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Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 10:52 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

Yes, I think I've got it now. The Y axis would make more immediate sense to me (as a lay person) if it were labled:

Frequency of Occurence of Delta T


Agreed! I've redone the figure with that change made:

[more]

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Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 7:50 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

I see delta T on both the X and Y axes. That is not the typical kind of graph that I am used to looking at it.

Help me out here.


Peter, this figure shows the frequency distribution of temperatures, normalized to unit [more]

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 7:33 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

In regard to Roy Spencer's figure of Earth's infrared emission spectrum:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Petty-fig6.6-...

Ajax [more]

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 6:31 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

Minor point: shouldn't we say that currently the Earth's temperature is BI-STABLE when considering an entire glacial period?

This is an idea that has been around for a while, but there is no evidence to substantiate it.

The [more]

Mon Oct 20

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 6:30 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

First of all, we are not really talking about a true thermal equilibrium at all. True thermal equilibrium is the ultimate result when all energy flows into and out of the system have stopped. The entire planet, including its interior, is at the [more]

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 5:31 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

Now, If CO2 is driving Temperature, then:

1. We must see a correlation between Temperature and CO2. And we don't see such a correlation in the Vostok ice core data that go back 450,000 years. Or anywhere else for that
[more]

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 5:20 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

If CO2 is a greenhouse gas - and it is - then why does it not warm the planet as claimed by alarmists?

Answer: CO2 absorbs IR radiation around 15 microns and there is not enough energy around 15 microns to warm up anything. <=== Read
[more]

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AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 4:38 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

The fast (Charney) climate sensitivity is believed to be about 2.5 to 3 C per doubling of atmospheric CO2. Hansen et al. (2008, "Target CO2", OASJ 2, 217),

blah blah blah

The latest papers based upon climate data and
[more]

Sun Oct 19

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 8:48 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

There is no correlation between CO2 and Temperature unless you cherry pick the data, and that is what Parrenin et al. did here:

1. The Vostok data that go back 450,000 years, show that CO2 is a consequence of Temperature and not the
[more]

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 4:01 PM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

The recent study of Parrenin et al. published in the March 1, 2013 issue of Science (Parrenin et al., 2013, Science, 339, 1060) found that changes in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 had a correlation coefficient of 0.994 (a very strong [more]

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Climate Change board. 4:08 AM

Re: CO2 Increase is not Nemesis

LordFoolMan:

Human induced warming is minimal. There will be no catastrophic warming in the next 100 years. In fact, it may start cooling for the next few decades, as the oceanic currents flip-flops and the solar influence
[more]

Fri Oct 17

NL

Boards Post

AstroPhool replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 5:59 PM

Re: ma260 better than ma200 for timing?

My calculation for buy & hold yield a different result:


01/03/1950 CLOSE 16.66
10/10/2014 CLOSE 1906.13

Gain 1906.13/16.66= 114.41

$10,000x114.41= $1,144,100


Although Earble [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 558
Recs Received 3870
People who have rec'd these posts 421
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 102
Threads Started Percentage 18.28 %
Most Frequent Board Mechanical Investing
Very First Post balanced screen blend (8/23/2002)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 88.53 %
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