AdvocatusDiaboli’s Activity

Yesterday

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 10:42 PM

Re: Inequality

all told, a substantial deleveraging, not an _increase_ in household debt.

Yes. That was the result of the recent financial crisis. That doesn't really affect my thesis - it may merely mean that household debt has/had reached a level [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 10:01 AM

Re: MIT: economist Piketty on inequay

*Could be middle income jobs are under assault by technology.

To a large degree it is simply the disappearance of social values which inhibited greed.
The CEO/senior executive class of publicly traded companies sets its own [more]

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 9:53 AM

Re: AI- The Final Invention


I mean a general intelligence. It won't happen in our lifetimes. I think you underestimate exactly how much is going on under the hood in our minds.


I don't. But I'm sure the problems are all solvable. And they will get solved, [more]

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 6:29 AM

Re: AI- The Final Invention


Well, because I've always been fascinated by stuff like this. :)


I wanted to ask "Why do you think this is not a big problem?".



His conclusion was that computers are already intelligent, but [more]

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:34 AM

Re: AI- The Final Invention

You would think some dumb human would unplug the machine.

At some point, that will no longer be possible. Especially given the fact that everything is networked now.
While the first AI will likely require enormous computing [more]

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:30 AM

Re: AI- The Final Invention

Fascinating stuff, really fun to think about, but categorically not something People Have to Become Aware Of because Your Life May Depend on It.

Why do you think that?

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 1:29 AM

Re: AI- The Final Invention

Why would a super-AI want to destroy all of its tools?

Because they're really inefficient in comparison to machines. As someone once said: "The future doesn't need us".

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 12:16 AM

Re: AI- The Final Invention


-synchronicity, more likely we'll see augmented human intelligence like something out of a William Gibson novel than the AIs that also inhabited his world of Neuromancer/Mona Lisa Overdrive


That's not exactly exclusive, is [more]

Tue Apr 22

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 11:20 PM

Re: AI- The Final Invention

When you actually look at the typical algorithms used in AI, at the core most devolve down to searching through lists of things to match...in a very very dumb way, nothing like true human intelligence.

Of course. But one of these [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli posted to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 12:14 PM

AI- The Final Invention

I'm making a request I don't usually make - please rec this post. People have to become aware of this. Your life may depend on it.

At some point in the future - probably within our lifetime - humanity will invent true AI.
An [more]

Mon Apr 21

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Apple board. 8:01 AM

Re: Waterproof iPod

I wouldn't mind there being a reliably water-proof i<whatever>, but I don't think the market is really big enough to justify it. I think the complaints about the waterproof phone that Samsung released recently (the connectors are hard to [more]

Sun Apr 20

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 12:18 AM

Re: Thinnest membrane


I read a science fiction novel, a series actually, in one of the books the writer described an amazing knife with an edge one molecule thick. This would be an extremely sharp knife. Unfortunately, I cannot remember the name of the author or
[more]

Sat Apr 19

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 5:02 AM

Re: Inequality


FOR (financial obligations -- including debts, leases &c -- as a % of disposable income), per http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/ , has fluctuated a lot -- but
[more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 4:46 AM

Re: Inequality

Agreed, but how does one account for the (domestic) personal savings rate going from over 10% to less than 2% (now back to over 4%) while inequality increased as much as it has? It would seem that if there is any connection between the two, it [more]

Thu Apr 17

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 10:08 PM

Re: Inequality

Let me highlight a different portion of your quote:

The key point here is that all other things being equal, rising income inequality forces up the savings rate. The reason for this is pretty well understood: rich people consume a smaller [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Political Asylum board. 12:10 PM

Re: 0bummercare


After reading this thread and replying to left wing posts I can safely say that not a one of you has read a single thing on health insurance nor spent 10 minutes researching this topic.


I've actually read quite a bit on the [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Political Asylum board. 11:49 AM

Re: 0bummercare

You understand that you're paying for this procedure that you won't need for some years, right?

I already had this discussion with LF, but the gist is that I said since insurance is priced by age group, if you don't need it because of [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Political Asylum board. 11:44 AM

Re: 0bummercare


So, there is no issue in your mind that the young are subsidizing the older generation. The young at getting screwed three ways to sunday


Only if they die young and don't get to be old themselves.
You, too will one day old, [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Political Asylum board. 11:40 AM

Re: 0bummercare


You forget even with community rating the difference between what the 10 year old pays and the 50 year old can not be greater than 3 to 1.


Well that's a different issue. Or the same, depending how you look at it.
It's not [more]

NL

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AdvocatusDiaboli replied to the Political Asylum board. 11:33 AM

Re: 0bummercare


This 10 year old is paying the risk not just for himself but for everyone.


No, he's not.
It's community rating by age group, remember?
The insurance is for his mother, and I'm pretty sure she's not in the above 50 [more]

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