AceInMySleeve’s Activity

Tue Sep 13

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 7:21 PM

Re: Libraries around the globe

Humans have a strong (arguably irrational) reflex against unfairness, so they certainly don't like to pay the same as someone else for less (even if it's still a good deal - hence the irrationality). However, I don't think the vast [more]

Tue Aug 30

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 7:26 PM

Re: Stranger Things etc.

For comparison, here is the Google Trends link:

[more]

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 6:42 PM

Stranger Things etc.

Google Trends shows the traffic search levels for anything you want. Stranger Things, six weeks after launch has the same level of interest as the first week it was released. I haven't seen this on ANY other program. Making a Murderer built a [more]

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 6:37 PM

Re: Is it a new beginning? Or is it too late?

I don't think we're gonna see another year like last one in terms of returns (unless the stock drops more first). The current market cap already suggests something like 150M subscribers, and the realization of near United States margins [more]

Wed Jul 27

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 3:28 PM

Re: My best guess on price elasticity

I think HBO might be in for a bit of a shock when Game of Thrones ends because almost all buzz around that service is tied to it. You can see it on Google trends for 'HBO' or web traffic for hbonow or hbogo. Netflix on the other hand seems [more]

Fri Jul 22

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:05 PM

Re: My best guess on price elasticity

In the US, 100M households pay 80$\month for cable. If Netflix delivered everything cable did (plus no advertising, on demand access to all content, and ability to watch on all devices) they could charge more than that. So it's really a question [more]

Thu Jul 21

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 2:53 AM

My best guess on price elasticity

Working up some numbers on Domestic-only, the best I figure is that the average revenue increase for subs facing 'degrandfathering' is ~22%, and the total % of those subs expected to leave is ~6%.

Netflix might have expected closer [more]

Wed Jul 20

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:04 AM

Re: Netflix Rebound

Anybody find this sentence from their PR puzzling?

We think some members perceived the news as an impending new price increase rather than the completion of two years of grandfathering.

I can't tell if this implies that [more]

Tue Jun 21

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Tesla Motors board. 7:45 PM

Re: bidding for Solar City

Man this is a real test for the markets. Tesla has dropped more in market cap after this news than even the value of SCTY itself. Possibly that's because SCTY as a separate entity is limited to 0 e.g. bankruptcy in worse case scenarios, whereas [more]

Sun Jun 19

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 10:07 PM

Re: Modelling international

Netflix is gonna pass futbol in Argentina.. that's something.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#geo=AR&cmpt=q&...

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 9:44 PM

Re: Modelling international

If you look at Google Trends, you see a smooth hyperbolic acceleration in almost all S.America. Also, if you look at website traffic counters like Alexa and Compete and SimilarWeb they all show that Brazil has quite a bit of traction. I don't [more]

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 9:41 PM

Re: Modelling international

Thanks for the post Tim. My numbers are also a tad bit higher than yours but I don't much hold value in my estimates. 2018 is closer to 137M in my figuring for example. But I put less stock in that number than just about any in the [more]

Mon May 9

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 10:43 PM

Modelling international

Has anyone attempted a more detailed international growth forecast? The number of variables and limited information from Netflix makes it quite difficult. The market took down NFLX pretty hard when int'l forecasts for Q2 came out at a surprisingly [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1945
Recs Received 3318
People who have rec'd these posts 429
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 618
Threads Started Percentage 31.77 %
Most Frequent Board Netflix
Very First Post Inaccurate Churn Formula (7/8/2004)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 56.09 %
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