AceInMySleeve’s Activity

Fri Apr 21

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 1:24 PM

Re: NFLX Next $1B opportunity

Did the interviewers even ask about that in the earnings call? I don't think they asked about future price increases. The investor relation situation has gotten really lazy with this company.

Tue Apr 18

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 6:21 PM

Re: Weak Q1, crackling rest of year

I do think seasonality is based on weather. It's been mostly the same since the DVD days except that Q4 has grown relatively stronger at the expense of Q1, probably just shifting people to earlier signups in the weeks bracketing new [more]

Mon Apr 17

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 5:34 PM

Re: Weak Q1, crackling rest of year

Probably one of the more predictable and dull results in the history of Netflix. Even the Q2 guidance is only 100k subscribers higher than my spreadsheet had.

I am a little struck by the fact that they claim to pass 100M this weekend. This [more]

Mon Apr 10

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 10:31 PM

Re: NFLX Intnl Growth May Be Surprising

Back in 2012 I became 80+% certain Netflix would post 150M global subs eventually @ 15% margin and 12$\month price which meant 45-60B market cap depending on P/E (20-30) at that point. So the stock has done better than the actual company, according [more]

Thu Mar 30

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 10:16 PM

Re: Weak Q1, crackling rest of year

[Music blasts. The lights go out before orange house lights come back up. Hands are thrown in the air]

"Hey there, I'm Ted Sarandos --". His thumb pops a mint into his mouth, "-- the Hitmaker".

[Later, things [more]

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 9:43 PM

Re: Weak Q1, crackling rest of year

I'd give 50:50 for 100m by earnings day, at which point they will nonchalantly say 'yeah we hit it at some point recently' while having secret celebrity raves in their new LA facility.

I'm curious to see if they keep riding [more]

Wed Mar 29

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 8:12 PM

Weak Q1, crackling rest of year

As far as I can tell, the original slate was really weak this quarter. Even the tentpole Iron Fist got a lot of negativity. And there was no Fuller House or Making a Murderer or House of Cards, or other major surprise. Also Q1 last year is a tough [more]

Sat Feb 4

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 9:08 PM

Superbowl ad

Looks like Netflix is gonna finally produce a Superbowl ad with the subject being Stranger Things 2.

[more]

Fri Sep 30

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 6:18 PM

Netflix to license to broadcasters?

Netflix has a deal with Univision in the United States to put Narcos on their broadcast channel. Could this be the future more broadly?

At the moment there is a very large swell in content on television, but it's unstable because [more]

Tue Sep 13

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 7:21 PM

Re: Libraries around the globe

Humans have a strong (arguably irrational) reflex against unfairness, so they certainly don't like to pay the same as someone else for less (even if it's still a good deal - hence the irrationality). However, I don't think the vast [more]

Tue Aug 30

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 7:26 PM

Re: Stranger Things etc.

For comparison, here is the Google Trends link:

[more]

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 6:42 PM

Stranger Things etc.

Google Trends shows the traffic search levels for anything you want. Stranger Things, six weeks after launch has the same level of interest as the first week it was released. I haven't seen this on ANY other program. Making a Murderer built a [more]

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 6:37 PM

Re: Is it a new beginning? Or is it too late?

I don't think we're gonna see another year like last one in terms of returns (unless the stock drops more first). The current market cap already suggests something like 150M subscribers, and the realization of near United States margins [more]

Wed Jul 27

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 3:28 PM

Re: My best guess on price elasticity

I think HBO might be in for a bit of a shock when Game of Thrones ends because almost all buzz around that service is tied to it. You can see it on Google trends for 'HBO' or web traffic for hbonow or hbogo. Netflix on the other hand seems [more]

Fri Jul 22

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:05 PM

Re: My best guess on price elasticity

In the US, 100M households pay 80$\month for cable. If Netflix delivered everything cable did (plus no advertising, on demand access to all content, and ability to watch on all devices) they could charge more than that. So it's really a question [more]

Thu Jul 21

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 2:53 AM

My best guess on price elasticity

Working up some numbers on Domestic-only, the best I figure is that the average revenue increase for subs facing 'degrandfathering' is ~22%, and the total % of those subs expected to leave is ~6%.

Netflix might have expected closer [more]

Wed Jul 20

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:04 AM

Re: Netflix Rebound

Anybody find this sentence from their PR puzzling?

We think some members perceived the news as an impending new price increase rather than the completion of two years of grandfathering.

I can't tell if this implies that [more]

Tue Jun 21

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Tesla Motors board. 7:45 PM

Re: bidding for Solar City

Man this is a real test for the markets. Tesla has dropped more in market cap after this news than even the value of SCTY itself. Possibly that's because SCTY as a separate entity is limited to 0 e.g. bankruptcy in worse case scenarios, whereas [more]

Sun Jun 19

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 10:07 PM

Re: Modelling international

Netflix is gonna pass futbol in Argentina.. that's something.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#geo=AR&cmpt=q&...

NL

Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 9:44 PM

Re: Modelling international

If you look at Google Trends, you see a smooth hyperbolic acceleration in almost all S.America. Also, if you look at website traffic counters like Alexa and Compete and SimilarWeb they all show that Brazil has quite a bit of traction. I don't [more]

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CAPS Player Rating < 20
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Score Change Today 0
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Active Picks 2
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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1954
Recs Received 3336
People who have rec'd these posts 432
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) N/A
Threads Started 621
Threads Started Percentage 31.78 %
Most Frequent Board Netflix
Very First Post Inaccurate Churn Formula (7/8/2004)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 56.24 %
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