AceInMySleeve’s Activity

Yesterday

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:36 PM

Re: Reports above and below

I'm not all that surprised by the down move today. The perception is this is an expensive stock, and it is. It requires solid execution for many years to justify this value, and bulls should be aware that we are operating with a great deal of faith.

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:34 PM

Re: Reports above and below

This is one of the least interesting results I can recall. A few of my takes:

1) Enough data to feel comfortable that a 12.5% price increase had almost no impact on demand. That's really something. Think of all the 'no pricing power', 'no [more]

Thu Jul 17

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 5:01 PM

Microsoft bails on XBox entertainment

Anyone remember the Netflix-killer that was Redbox instant backed by the telco behemoth Verizon? Yeah.. crickets.

Well here goes Microsoft throwing in the towel on a project that could have had some competitive overlap. Maybe Hastings will [more]

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 12:10 AM

Fox bids for Time Warner

These are both titans. Netflix purchases a lot of content from both. Fox owns Fx e.g. Sons of anarchy, wilfred, american horror story on Netflix, etc. Time Warner of course owns HBO, as well as Warner Brothers TV (Revolution, 666 Park avenue, [more]

Wed Jul 16

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 9:43 PM

NFL Sunday Ticket

Everything is going to streaming. We can be fairly certain of that eventuality.

Sports is probably one of the most unique content categories and charts a different path than everything else. Much like the route music took to digital has been [more]

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 9:35 PM

Netflix comments to FCC

http://www.scribd.com/doc/234117617/Netflix-FCC-Comments

Full text. An interesting read. I'm a fanboy and not a neutral party so I might be motivated to believe so but [more]

Tue Jul 15

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:20 PM

Re: Continued issues with AT&T and Verizon

Wireless is more common in many countries relative to a fixed line connection so it's natural to ask if that platform can support Netflix. I was looking at countries with the highest total # of English speakers and 2,3,4 is India,Pakistan,Nigeria. [more]

Mon Jul 14

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 6:25 PM

Continued issues with AT&T and Verizon

updated ISP Speed report from Netflix.. continued problems.

http://ispspeedindex.netflix.com/usa

The ISPs are clearly on the wrong side of the argument. They refuse to upgrade the [more]

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 4:07 PM

Hemlock Grove season 2 a stinker

Critics dislike once again. Saw a bit of it. Seems clear the budget was cut back as well. Most obviously by having fewer episodes of shorter length. Less obviously through some rather low grade CGI.

Can't all be winners.

What's [more]

Thu Jul 10

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 3:02 PM

Re: Gideon's Army

Yes that's my understanding vis a vis HBO-Amazon.

Also if you look at how that's arranged they have older series for free on Prime then newer ones are pay VOD. That's not something Netflix would replicate at this moment. HBO has a fairly [more]

Wed Jul 9

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 11:29 PM

Gideon's Army

Watched this excellent documentary on Netflix. Only later after looking at reviews did I notice it was an HBO production.

I find it interesting that HBO is choosing to hawk it's warez on Amazon and Netflix rather than use them directly in [more]

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 10:22 PM

Re: Jumps to new high

My keep it simple model would say that as a minimum Netflix gets to 50M subs domestic, 50M international, and 9$\month before it's over. This gives north of 10B$ in revenue which if you give a 3 Price/Sales (20 P/E on 15% net margin, or 15 P/E on 20% [more]

Wed Jul 2

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 4:25 PM

Re: Jumps to new high

Netflix at these price ranges has a lot to prove. The comfort margin to my more optimistic projections is getting rather slim. Personally, I'll hold until some part of the business story starts breaking and attempt to ignore the stock price, but I [more]

Wed Jun 25

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 3:09 PM

Re: Logo change

That's innovation. Next we'll see Apple deliver a phone with a larger screen.

Thu May 29

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 1:19 AM

Re: Adds France and Germany

Rumors have them launching Australia and nz by q12015.. 50k-200k already on United States sub via VPN. The internet accelerates the winner takes all formula.

Thu May 22

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AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 7:56 PM

Re: Adds France and Germany

Yeah I'm glad they went strong here, and I'm glad it includes the price increase. The Latin American expansion really slowed things down it appears.

It could be that this year is the first year that international permanently passes domestic [more]

Wed May 21

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 1:46 PM

Prime releases the HBO motherload

It really amazes me just how much effort Amazon has put into their streaminig product (with so little return). I never expected them really to succeed, but I didn't expect them to try this hard and still fail.

Well the HBO content they [more]

Wed May 14

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AceInMySleeve posted to the Netflix board. 9:04 AM

Bandwidth data

According to Sandvine.

In the last 6 months, Netflix has gone from 31.52% to 34.21% of peak downstream traffic. Amazon has gone from 1.61% to 1.9%.

I think these numbers show a good perspective on the battle here. I'd wager Amazon [more]

Mon Apr 28

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Boards Post

AceInMySleeve replied to the Netflix board. 2:49 AM

Re: Where will growth come from?

150 m sub's 10$ a month and 15% profit margin is a fairly easy target in my opinion a few years hence. 2/3 of sub's should be Int'l in long term. I think they will dabble in new revenue streams along the lines of theatrical releases by then. Aside [more]

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Boards Stats & Trivia

Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool
Board Posts 1856
Recs Received 3205
People who have rec'd these posts 423
Recs to Posts Ratio (last 30 days) 1.80
Threads Started 588
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Most Frequent Board Netflix
Very First Post Inaccurate Churn Formula (7/8/2004)
Percentage of Posts Rec'd 55.93 %
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